Wonder Park Box Office Prediction

It’s been a bumpy ride for Nickelodeon’s animated feature Wonder Park, but it finally hits screens this Friday. Originally titled Amusement Park and scheduled for release last summer, the pic comes with a reported $100 million price tag. The film’s director Dylan Brown was fired by the studio in early 2018 due to various sexual harassment claims. Newcomer Brianna Denski provides the lead voiceover role along with familiar faces such as Jennifer Garner, Matthew Broderick, Kenan Thompson, Ken Jeong, Mila Kunis, and John Oliver.

The box office grosses for Park, considering its hefty price tag, might not be amusing at all. It doesn’t help that Captain Marvel will be in its sophomore frame as it also appeals to family crowds. I believe this will make low double digits for its start and that would amount to a costly flop for Paramount.

Wonder Park opening weekend prediction: $10.3 million

For my Five Feet Apart prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/03/09/five-feet-apart-box-office-prediction/

For my Captive State prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/03/10/captive-state-box-office-prediction/

Peppermint Box Office Prediction

Jennifer Garner is back to her action roots when Peppermint arrives in theaters next weekend. The revenge tale casts the former “Alias” star as a vigilante avenging a double family tragedy. While Garner has been out of this particular genre for a bit, director Pierre Morel has not. He’s best known for making the first Taken a decade ago, in addition to From Paris with Love and The Gunman. Costars include John Gallagher Jr., John Ortiz, and Method Man.

Peppermint will hope to bring a female and action oriented audience to the fold. Some of its anticipated crowd could be busy watching The Nun instead. You have to go back to 2005’s Elektra for the last time Garner was headlining a genre flick like this.

For a decent comp, I’m going all the way back to 2007 when The Brave One with Jodie Foster opened in the same time frame to $13.4 million. That actually sounds just about right, give or take a million or two.

Peppermint opening weekend prediction: $11.8 million

For my The Nun prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/28/the-nun-box-office-prediction/

For my God Bless the Broken Road prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/09/02/god-bless-the-broken-road-box-office-prediction/

Love, Simon Box Office Prediction

Love, Simon hopes to enchant moviegoers when the romantic dramedy debuts next weekend. The film, based on a 2015 YA novel by Becky Albertalli, focuses on a closeted gay teen (Nick Robinson) growing up in the South. Jennifer Garner and Josh Duhamel play his parents with Greg Berlanti (known mostly for his TV work) directing.

From the producers of The Fault in Our Stars, the pic has garnered positive critical response as it stands at 87% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. Simon has received some publicity for its subject matter and the mostly strong reviews should help.

On the high end, I could see the 20th Century Fox production nabbing about $17 million. However, I believe a lower double digits roll out is more likely as it will hope for word-of-mouth to sustain it in subsequent weekends.

Love, Simon opening weekend prediction: $13.3 million

For my Tomb Raider prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/03/06/tomb-raider-box-office-prediction/

For my I Can Only Imagine prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/03/11/i-can-only-imagine-box-office-prediction/

Oscar Watch: Wakefield

As the Telluride Film Festival has wound to a close, we have another contender in one particular category to discuss. Wakefield is a family drama from director Robin Swicord, a screenwriter known for works such as The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. It’s based on a short story from E.L. Doctorow.

Reviews for the film have been mostly strong. Yet its only chance at Academy recognition is likely with its star, Bryan Cranston. The three-time Emmy winner for “Breaking Bad” got his first Oscar nod just last year with Trumbo.

Critics have signaled this is another highly powerful performance and Telluride has entered his name into the Best Actor discussion over the Labor Day weekend.

Wakefield_Mingasson_2060.CR2

Wakefield_Mingasson_2060.CR2

Nine Lives Box Office Prediction

Next weekend, the family comedy Nine Lives attempts to answer important queries such as…

Did Kevin Spacey lose or a bet or something?!?!?

The pic casts the two time Oscar winner and star of the acclaimed “House of Cards” as a rich businessman who experiences an accident that traps him into the body of a cat…

No seriously. What does distributor EuropaCorp have on Spacey??? 

Costars include Jennifer Garner and Christopher Walken and directorial duties are handled by Barry Sonnenfeld (who’s had his share of hits with the Men in Black and Addams Family franchises)…

For that matter, what is Sonnenfeld doing directing this??? I mean, he did Wild Wild West, but still…

Who knows? Maybe Nine Lives will turn out to be a classic family comedy, but it sure doesn’t look like it judging from the trailer, which I thought might be a Funny or Die spoof or something when I first viewed it…

Mr. Spacey – if you’re doing this movie against your will, send us a signal or something…

I’ll predict this makes about a million bucks or so for each life in the title and decent odds that President Underwood spends conversations int the future trying to live it down.

Nine Lives opening weekend prediction: $9.8 million

For my Suicide Squad prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/07/26/suicide-squad-box-office-prediction/

For an explanation of why Kevin Spacey is in this movie, I got nothing…

Miracles from Heaven Box Office Prediction

Arriving the week before Easter, the Christian themed drama Miracles from Heaven is out on Wednesday and hopes to bring in a faith based audience. Based on a true story and bestselling novel by Christy Beam, Jennifer Garner stars as a mom whose young daughter suffering from a rare disorder experiences a miraculous cure. Costars include Kylie Rogers, Martin Henderson, and Queen Latifah.

Miracles arrived amidst a series of Christian dramas that includes Risen, The Young Messiah, and God’s Not Dead 2 on April 1. There are signs that this could be the best performer. The novel has a following and this seeks to capitalize on its pre Easter release date.

I’ll predict Heaven achieves a mid teens gross over the traditional weekend and could reach above $20M over the five day rollout.

Miracles from Heaven opening weekend prediction: $15.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $20.8 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my The Divergent Series: Allegiant prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/10/the-divergent-series-allegiant-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: October 10-12

Four new movies make their debuts on Friday at the box office – Robert Downey Jr.’s The Judge, the Steve Carell/Jennifer Garner family comedy Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day, the horror retelling Dracula Untold, and steamy thriller Addicted. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each one of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/10/05/the-judge-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/10/05/alexander-and-the-terrible-horrible-no-good-very-bad-day-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/10/05/dracula-untold-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/10/05/addicted-box-office-prediction/

The question is: can any of them make current #1 Gone Girl disappear from the top spot? It’s certainly possible as The Judge, Alexander, and Dracula could all exceed my estimates and all stand at least a chance of opening atop the charts. Addicted, on a meager 800 screens, is highly unlikely to even crack the top five.

However, I believe Gone Girl will manage to stay #1, despite it serious competition. Annabelle, after a fantastic debut (more on that below), should suffer the same large fall in its sophomore frame that most horror titles do.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. Gone Girl

Predicted Gross: $24.2 million (representing a drop of 35%)

2. Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day

Predicted Gross: $18.7 million

3. The Judge

Predicted Gross: $16.4 million

4. Annabelle

Predicted Gross: $14.8 million (representing a drop of 60%)

5. Dracula Untold

Predicted Gross: $14.4 million

**My Addicted projected gross of $4.5M should put it in eighth place.

Box Office Results (October 3-5)

The debuts of David Fincher’s acclaimed Gone Girl and Conjuring horror prequel Annabelle injected some much needed life into the box office and created the biggest October weekend of all time!

As predicted, Gone Girl took top honors with $37.5 million, just below my $39.6M projection. This is Fincher’s highest debut of all time and clearly audiences were ready for the much buzzed about adaptation of Gillian Flynn’s bestselling novel. I expect it to perform well in the coming weeks and it should easily blast past $100M.

I did not give that demonic doll Annabelle nearly enough credit as it opened just behind Girl with a magnificent $37.1 million – miles ahead of my small $21.2M prediction. This is easily the best horror opening of 2014 and bodes extremely well for that Conjuring sequel coming in October of 2015.

Denzel Washington’s The Equalizer fell to third with $18.7 million in weekend two, holding up better than my estimated $16.7M. The action thriller has earned $64 million in ten days and should have no problem passing the century mark.

The animated pic The Boxtrolls dropped to fourth with $11.9 million, in line with my $11.4M projection. The decently performing kiddie pic has earned $32 million in two weeks and should finish with around $65M.

The Maze Runner held up well in weekend three with $11.6 million – more than my $9.8M estimate. The new YA franchise has taken in $73M thus far and will also become a member of the $100M club.

Finally, Nicolas Cage’s Left Behind posted an unimpressive opening of $6.3 million, below my $7.6M prediction. Look for this one to disappear faster its lead actor’s hairline.

And that’s all for now, friends!