Kristen Stewart’s role as Princess Diana in Spencer is the fifth and final Case Of post for the Best Actress contenders. The first four can be accessed here:
Awards attention for the Twilight star has been building for some time. After acclaimed performances in indie fare like Clouds of Sils Maria, Certain Women, and Personal Shopper, this high-profile role has been considered a potential frontrunner performance since it debuted at the Venice Film Festival.
The Case Against Kristen Stewart:
That frontrunner status hit massive speed bumps. While Stewart nabbed Golden Globe and Critics Choice nods, she was snubbed at SAG and BAFTA. She lost the Globe to Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos) and SAG went to Jessica Chastain. She’s yet to take a significant precursor (a Critics Choice Award this weekend could help). Furthermore, Spencer drew mixed reaction from critics and audiences and Stewart holds the sole Oscar nod for it.
Previous Nominations:
None
The Verdict:
It’s a guessing game in Best Actress. Despite Stewart’s setbacks, she’s still in the running in this wide open derby. Her exclusion in SAG could even cause Academy voters to grant her retribution. That said, she’s probably behind Chastain and Kidman at the moment.
My Case Of posts will continue with our last Best Actor player – Denzel Washington in The Tragedy of Macbeth…
The screenings at Venice and Telluride are rolling in at a furious level (expect lots of posts up this evening). From Italy, one of the most eagerly awaited was Spencer, Pablo Larrain’s biopic of Princess Diana starring Kristen Stewart. The director is no stranger to real life tales of political figures and their tragic circumstances. In 2016, Larrain made Jackie and it resulted in a Best Actress nomination for Natalie Portman.
Word-of-mouth indicates that Spencer could be a serious Oscar player (it’s out November 5). This is particularly true for Stewart. The actress’s post Twilight career includes praised performances for Clouds of Sils Maria and Personal Shopper, but she’s yet to garner any attention from the Academy.
It’s always risky to be too declarative at this stage of prognosticating and with so many pictures left to screen, but it feels warranted here. So here goes: Kristen Stewart is going to be one of the five names for Best Actress. You can write it in ink. I will probably have her listed at #1 when I do updated predictions (which will come on Monday).
Other nominations are less certain, but totally feasible. This includes Best Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Score. I don’t foresee nods for the supporting cast which includes Sally Hawkins, Jack Farthing, Timothy Spall, and Sean Harris.
Bottom line: a gold statue could be in Stewart’s future and Spencer could factor into several other categories. My Oscar Prediction posts for the films of 2021 will continue…
French director Olivier Assayas has flirted with Oscar attention before in titles such as CloudsofSilsMaria and PersonalShopper. Some of that awards chatter for both of them focused on the work of Kristen Stewart, but it never came to fruition.
His latest is the Stewart free WaspNetwork which follows a group of Cuban spies in 1990s Miami. The cast includes Penelope Cruz, Edgar Ramirez, Gael Garcia Bernal, and Ana de Armas. It premiered at the Venice Film Festival over the weekend to mixed results with IndieWire deeming it a misfire.
Assayas is certainly a filmmaker with a critical following, but it appears Wasp will not fly onto the radar screen of Academy voters. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
Kristen Stewart seems to have found another acclaimed indie role with the premiere of Seberg today at the Venice Film Festival. From director Benedict Andrews (best known for Una), the pic casts Stewart as actress Jean Seberg (best known for 1960’s Breathless), whose career was put in jeopardy by her association with an African-American activist played by Anthony Mackie. Costars include Jack O’Connel, Margaret Qualley, and Vince Vaughn.
Reviews for the film itself are a bit shaky. Yet it’s Stewart once again being singled out for her strong work. The Twilight performer has had a run of applauded roles in titles such as Cloudsof SilsMaria and PersonalShopper. The Academy has yet to take notice and I’m skeptical they will here considering competitors in higher profile material. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
Non–Fiction is the latest release from writer/director Olivier Assayas and it’s my latest Oscar Watch post coming from the Venice Film Festival. The pic is said to be a departure from the French filmmaker’s recent fare like CloudsofSilsMaria and PersonalShopper. More of a comedic effort, Guillaume Canet and Juliette Binoche star and reviews from Italy indicate another critical darling for Assayas.
However, strong critical reaction hasn’t translated into Oscar nominations previously for the auteur and that is likely to be the case here. Kristen Stewart received career best reviews for Clouds and Shopper and Academy voters didn’t notice. This will need to break out in a huge way stateside for any chance at recognition.
Bottom line: Non–Fiction is probably a non-starter in the biggest awards derby.
The French psychologist thriller PersonalShopper from director Olivier Assayas has hit domestic theaters in limited release this weekend. It was nearly a year ago that eyeballs first saw it at the Cannes Film Festival in 2016. Assayas was honored with the Best Director Award, which he shared with another filmmaker.
Now that stateside audiences are getting a look at it, the buzz for its star Kristen Stewart is increasing. Many critics are calling it her finest work. She plays the title character – an American working for a celebrity in Paris in this pic said to have supernatural overtones. Shopper stands at 78% on Rotten Tomatoes.
Stewart has worked with Assayas before in CloudsofSilsMaria, which also whipped up some chatter for an Academy nod for the actress. It didn’t pan out then and may not here, but look for her name to be in the mix as the months roll along.
Here we are folks! After numerous posts prognosticating on what and whom will be nominated for the Academy Awards honoring 2015’s best, we will all collectively find out tomorrow morning. This Oscar season has been filled with much intrigue and a great deal of uncertainty.
Many questions abound:
Will the performances of Rooney Mara (Carol) and Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl) be recognized in lead Actress or Supporting Actress? That query alone makes predicting both of those races tricky this year. I will go with both being recognized in Supporting, but if Oscar voters go lead with one or both, it changes the whole dynamic. There’s also the possibility that Vikander could be honored in Supporting for Ex Machina and not Danish, which adds to the confusion.
Will the Academy nominate their first Star Wars pic (The Force Awakens) since the original 38 years ago? It’s already become the highest grossing film of all time and could certainly lead to even more eyeballs watching the telecast. That said, I have it narrowly missing the cut.
Will Leonardo DiCaprio finally win the gold statue for his work in The Revenant? Precursor awards including the Golden Globes point to yes. A nomination seems assured.
Is Spotlight truly the front runner or not? Many other possibilities are out there for an “upset” win. It is, at best, a soft front runner.
I’ll finally note that my predictions reflect a belief that Straight Outta Compton will be shut out. This goes against what several other predictors are saying and many have it being recognized in Best Picture. Another high profile offering that I have coming up empty: Black Mass.
As I’ve done for the last several weeks, I’m listing my predicted nominees and other possibilities in each category by likelihood of being nominated. Just because I have something listed as #1 doesn’t mean I’m predicting it to win (I’ll have my first blog post up predicting the winners this weekend). In parentheses after each entry is how far each predicted nominee/possibility has fallen from my previous predictions last week. On Thursday evening, I’ll have a post up letting you know how well (or not so much) I did.
Let’s get to it, shall we? My FINAL predictions:
Best Picture
As I see it, there are 21 films vying for anywhere from 5-10 spots. The magic number is usually 9 (last year it was 8). I’m going with 9 this year, though I believe 10 is more probable than 8. And strangely enough, my predicted nine has stayed the same over the course of the last month or so. Straight Outta Compton, Sicario, and even The Force Awakens have made some waves of late, but I still have them narrowly missing.
Spotlight (No Change)
The Big Short (No Change)
The Revenant (+3)
Mad Max: Fury Road (-1)
The Martian (No Change)
Carol (+1)
Bridge of Spies (+1)
Room (-4)
Brooklyn (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
10. Straight Outta Compton (No Change)
11. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (No Change)
12. The Hateful Eight (No Change)
13. Sicario (+1)
14. Inside Out (-1)
15. Steve Jobs (+1)
16. Ex Machina (+2)
17. Trumbo (No Change)
18. Beasts of No Nation (-3)
19. Son of Saul (+1)
20. The Danish Girl (-1)
21. Creed (No Change)
Best Director
Tuesday’s Directors Guild of America usually provides a reasonably reliable snap shot of at least three or four of the nominees that will end up being recognized here. Their picks were Tom McCarthy, Ridley Scott, George Miller, Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, and Adam McKay. Of those, McKay seems the most vulnerable (with Miller and Scott behind). I’ll keep my prediction for Todd Haynes in and there’s certainly a chance there’s a shocker nominee as we sometimes see in this category.
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight (+1)
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant (+1)
Ridley Scott, The Martian (+1)
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road (-3)
Todd Haynes, Carol (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies (+1)
7. Adam McKay, The Big Short (-1)
8. Denis Villenueve, Sicario (+5)
9. Lenny Abrahamson, Room (-1)
10. F. Gary Gray, Straight Outta Compton (+1)
11. John Crowley, Brooklyn (-2)
12. Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight (-2)
13. J.J. Abrams, Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-1)
14. Jay Roach, Trumbo (Previously Unranked)
15. Cary Fukanaga, Beasts of No Nation (-1)
16. Alex Garland, Ex Machina (Previously Unranked)
17. Laszlo Nemes, Son of Saul (-2)
18. Ryan Coogler, Creed (Previously Unranked)
19. Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs (Previously Unranked)
20. Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl (Previously Unranked)
Best Actor
This race is increasingly looking like ‘The Leo Show” with Mr. DiCaprio likely to nab (finally) his first Oscar. Only Leo seems to be a totally safe bet (though it would be a surprise to me if Redmayne and Fassbender don’t get in and probably Cranston too). I would say numbers 5-8 are practically interchangeable while anything 9 or below would be a fairly big surprise.
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant (No Change)
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl (No Change)
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo (No Change)
Matt Damon, The Martian (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steve Carell, The Big Short (-1)
7. Will Smith, Concussion (No Change)
8. Johnny Depp, Black Mass (No Change)
9. Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes (No Change)
10. Michael Caine, Youth (No Change)
11. Michael B. Jordan, Creed (+1)
12. Geza Rohrig, Son of Saul (-1)
Best Actress
As previously discussed, all the rules go out the window if either Rooney Mara or Alicia Vikander are recognized here instead of in Supporting Actress. That said, I feel pretty confident about Larson, Ronan, and Blanchett. The rest? Not so much.
Brie Larson, Room (No Change)
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn (No Change)
Cate Blanchett, Carol (No Change)
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy (+1)
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
7. Helen Mirren, Woman in Gold (+1)
8. Emily Blunt, Sicario (+3)
9. Blythe Danner, I’ll See You in My Dreams (+1)
10. Sarah Silverman, I Smile Back (-1)
11. Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van (Previously Unranked)
Best Supporting Actor
Bottom line: I feel like Rylance and Stallone are the only safe bets here. This category has been wide open for quite some time and all 12 performers listed here could get in. Very curious to see how this works out come tomorrow.
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies (No Change)
Sylvester Stallone, Creed (+1)
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation (-1)
Paul Dano, Love and Mercy (+1)
Christian Bale, The Big Short (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael Keaton, Spotlight (No Change)
7. Michael Shannon, 99 Homes (No Change)
8. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight (No Change)
9. Tom Hardy, The Revenant (No Change)
10. Jacob Tremblay, Room (+1)
11. Benicio del Toro, Sicario (-1)
12. Jason Mitchell, Straight Outta Compton (Previously Unranked)
Best Supporting Actress
Rooney Mara and Alicia Vikander seem like safe bets – as long as they’re nominated here and not in Actress. Kate Winslet (fresh off a Globe win) and Jennifer Jason Leigh should play here, too. The fifth slot is truly up for grabs, I feel.
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl (No Change)
Rooney Mara, Carol (No Change)
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs (+1)
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight (-1)
Helen Mirren, Trumbo (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jane Fonda, Youth (-1)
7. Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria (No Change)
8. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight (+1)
9. Joan Allen, Room (-1)
10. Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina (No Change)
11. Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy (No Change)
12. Marion Cotillard, MacBeth (Previously Unranked)
Best Original Screenplay
Spotlight (No Change)
Inside Out (No Change)
Bridge of Spies (+1)
The Hateful Eight (-1)
Sicario (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ex Machina (-1)
7. Straight Outta Compton (No Change)
8. Love and Mercy (No Change)
9. Son of Saul (+2)
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Big Short (No Change)
Carol (No Change)
Room (No Change)
Steve Jobs (+1)
Brooklyn (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Martian (No Change)
7. The Revenant (+1)
8. Beasts of No Nation (+1)
9. Trumbo (-2)
10. Mad Max: Fury Road (Previously Unranked)
11. Anomalisa (No Change)
Best Animated Feature
Inside Out (No Change)
Anomalisa (No Change)
Shaun the Sheep Movie (No Change)
Kahlil Gabran’s The Prophet (No Change)
The Peanuts Movie (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Good Dinosaur (-1)
7. When Marnie Was There (No Change)
8. Minions (Previously Unranked)
Best Documentary Feature (First Time Predictions)
Amy
The Look of Silence
Winter on Fire
Going Clear: Scientology and the Prison of Belief
He Named Me Malala
Other Possibilities:
6. Listen to Me Marlon
7. Best of Enemies
8. The Hunting Ground
9. Where to Invade Next
10. Heart of the Dog
Best Foreign Language Film (First Time Predictions)
Son of Saul
Mustang
A War
The Brand New Testament
Embrace of the Serpent
Other Possibilities:
6. The Fencer
7. Labyrinth of Lies
8. Theeb
9. Viva
Best Production Design
The Danish Girl (No Change)
Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
Bridge of Spies (+1)
Carol (-2)
The Revenant (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Brooklyn (-1)
7. The Martian (Previously Unranked)
8. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+3)
9. The Hateful Eight (-3)
10. Cinderella (-3)
Best Cinematography
The Revenant (No Change)
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
The Hateful Eight (No Change)
Bridge of Spies (+1)
Sicario (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Carol (+1)
7. Son of Saul (+2)
8. The Martian (-2)
9. The Assassin (-1)
10. Spotlight (Previously Unranked)
Best Costume Design
The Danish Girl (No Change)
Carol (No Change)
Cinderella (+1)
Brooklyn (-1)
Far from the Madding Crowd (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mad Max: Fury Road (+6)
7. The Hateful Eight (-1)
8. Suffragette (-1)
9. The Revenant (No Change)
10. Mr. Holmes (Previously Unranked)
Best Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
The Big Short (No Change)
Spotlight (+2)
The Revenant (No Change)
Bridge of Spies (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Martian (-3)
7. Sicario (+3)
8. Steve Jobs (-2)
9. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+3)
10. The Hateful Eight (-1)
11. Room (-3)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
The Revenant (No Change)
The 100 Year Old Man Who Climbed Out of the Window and Disappeared (+1)
Other Possibilities:
4. Black Mass (-1)
5. Mr. Holmes (No Change)
6. Concussion (No Change)
7. Legend (No Change)
Best Sound Mixing
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
The Revenant (+3)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (No Change)
Sicario (No Change)
The Martian (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Hateful Eight (No Change)
7. Bridge of Spies (Previously Unranked)
8. Jurassic World (-1)
Best Sound Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (No Change)
The Revenant (No Change)
The Martian (No Change)
The Hateful Eight (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sicario (-1)
7. Jurassic World (+1)
8. Bridge of Spies (Previously Unranked)
Best Visual Effects
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (No Change)
Jurassic World (No Change)
The Martian (No Change)
The Revenant (Previously Unranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ex Machina (-1)
7. The Walk (No Change)
8. Ant-Man (Previously Unranked)
9. Avengers: Age of Ultron (-1)
10. In the Heart of the Sea (-4)
Best Score
The Hateful Eight (No Change)
Carol (+1)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+2)
Bridge of Spies (-2)
The Danish Girl (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spotlight (No Change)
7. Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
Best Original Song
“See You Again” from Furious 7 (+2)
“Til It Happens to You” from The Hunting Ground (-1)
“Writing’s on the Wall” from Spectre (+4)
“Simple Song #3” from Youth (No Change)
“So Long” from Concussion (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Love Me Like You Do” from Fifty Shades of Grey (-1)
7. “Earned It” from Fifty Shades of Grey (-1)
These FINAL predictions reflect a belief that the following pictures will receive this number of nominations:
10 Nominations
The Revenant
9 Nominations
Mad Max: Fury Road
8 Nominations
Carol
7 Nominations
Bridge of Spies
6 Nominations
The Martian
5 Nominations
The Danish Girl, The Hateful Eight
4 Nominations
The Big Short, Brooklyn, Spotlight, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3 Nominations
Room, Sicario, Steve Jobs
2 Nominations
Inside Out, Trumbo
1 Nomination
Beasts of No Nation, Cinderella, Concussion, Creed, Far from the Madding Crowd, 45 Years, Furious 7, The Hunting Ground, Joy, Jurassic World, Love and Mercy, The 100 Year Old Man Who Climbed Out of the Window and Disappeared, Spectre, Youth
And there you have it, folks! My final Oscar predictions! I’ll have an update posted tomorrow. Until then…
We have arrived at my weekly Friday predictions for who and what will be nominated for the Oscars honoring 2015 pictures. This will be the last Friday I’ll be doing so because the nominations themselves come out this Thursday, January 14th. I will have one final post of predictions either on Tuesday or Wednesday next week.
One consistent source of consternation is whether Rooney Mara will be nominated in lead Actress or Supporting Actress for Carol (same goes, to a lesser degree, for Alicia Vikander’s work in The Danish Girl). Last week, I had her in Actress, but now I’m switching back to Supporting. We shall see. As with my posts every week, it will show where the movers and shakers have shifted around with chances of nomination.
So here goes… my penultimate Oscar predictions…
Best Picture
Spotlight (No Change)
The Big Short (+1)
Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
Room (-2)
The Martian (+1)
The Revenant (+1)
Carol (-2)
Bridge of Spies (+1)
Brooklyn (-1)
Other Possibilities:
10. Straight Outta Compton (+3)
11. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-1)
12. The Hateful Eight (No Change)
13. Inside Out (-2)
14. Sicario (+4)
15. Beasts of No Nation (-1)
16. Steve Jobs (No Change)
17. Trumbo (+2)
18. Ex Machina (Previously Unranked)
19. The Danish Girl (+1)
20. Son of Saul (-5)
21. Creed (-4)
DROPPED OUT: Anomalisa
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Director
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight (-1)
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant (+1)
Ridley Scott, The Martian (-1)
Todd Haynes, Carol (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. Adam McKay, The Big Short (No Change)
7. Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies (+1)
8. Lenny Abrahamson, Room (-1)
9. John Crowley, Brooklyn (+3)
10. Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight (-1)
11. F. Gary Gray, Straight Outta Compton (Previously Unranked)
12. J.J. Abrams, Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-1)
DROPPED OUT: Creed, Mad Max: Fury Road (moved to Original)
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Animated Feature
Inside Out (No Change)
Anomalisa (No Change)
Shaun the Sheep Movie (No Change)
Kahlil Gabran’s The Prophet (+1)
The Good Dinosaur (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Peanuts Movie (-2)
7. When Marnie Was There (No Change)
DROPPED OUT: Minions
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: The Good Dinosaur. Out: The Peanuts Movie.
Best Production Design
The Danish Girl (+1)
Carol (-1)
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
Bridge of Spies (No Change)
Brooklyn (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Hateful Eight (-1)
7. Cinderella (-1)
8. MacBeth (+3)
9. The Revenant (-1)
10. Far From the Madding Crowd (No Change)
11. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-2)
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Brooklyn. Out: The Hateful Eight.
Best Cinematography
The Revenant (No Change)
Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
The Hateful Eight (-1)
Sicario (No Change)
Bridge of Spies (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Martian (No Change)
7. Carol (+1)
8. The Assassin (Previously Unranked)
9. Son of Saul (-2)
DROPPED OFF: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Costume Design
The Danish Girl (+1)
Carol (-1)
Brooklyn (+1)
Cinderella (-1)
Far from the Madding Crowd (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Hateful Eight (No Change)
7. Suffragette (+3)
8. Trumbo (Previously Unranked)
9. The Revenant (No Change)
10. MacBeth (-2)
11. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (No Change)
12. Mad Max: Fury Road (-5)
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
The Big Short (+5)
The Martian (+1)
The Revenant (-2)
Spotlight (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steve Jobs (-1)
7. Bridge of Spies (+1)
8. Room (+4)
9. The Hateful Eight (No Change)
10. Sicario (-4)
11. Straight Outta Compton (Previously Unranked)
12. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-2)
DROPPED OUT: Carol
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: The Big Short. Out: Steve Jobs.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
Black Mass (+1)
The Revenant (-1)
Other Possibilities:
4. The 100 Year Old Man Who Climbed Out of the Window and Disappeared (+2)
5. Concussion (-1)
6. Mr. Holmes (-1)
7. Legend (No Change)
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Sound Mixing
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
The Martian (+2)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-1)
Sicario (+1)
The Revenant (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Hateful Eight (No Change)
7. Jurassic World (+1)
8. In the Heart of the Sea (-1)
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Sound Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+1)
The Revenant (-1)
The Martian (No Change)
Sicario (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Hateful Eight (+1)
7. In the Heart of the Sea (-2)
8. Jurassic World (No Change)
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Sicario. Out: In the Heart of the Sea.
Best Visual Effects
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (No Change)
Jurassic World (+1)
The Martian (-1)
Ex Machina (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. In the Heart of the Sea (No Change)
7. The Walk (No Change)
8. Avengers: Age of Ultron (Previously Unranked)
9. Everest (-1)
DROPPED OFF: The Revenant
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Original Score
The Hateful Eight (No Change)
Bridge of Spies (No Change)
Carol (No Change)
The Danish Girl (+1)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spotlight (No Change)
7. Steve Jobs (No Change)
8. Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
DROPPED OFF: Inside Out, The Revenant
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Original Song
“Til It Happens to You” from The Hunting Ground (No Change)
“So Long” from Concussion (+1)
“See You Again” from Furious 7 (-1)
“Simple Song #3” from Youth (No Change)
“Love Me Like You Do” from Fifty Shades of Grey (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Earned It” from Fifty Shades of Grey (-1)
7. “Writing’s on the Wall” from Spectre (-1)
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: “Love Me Like You Do”. Out: “Earned It”.
These current predictions reflect the following breakdown of films getting these numbers:
9 Nominations
Mad Max Fury Road
8 Nominations
Carol, The Revenant
6 Nominations
Bridge of Spies, The Martian
5 Nominations
The Big Short, Brooklyn, The Danish Girl
4 Nominations
The Hateful Eight, Spotlight, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3 Nominations
Room. Sicario, Steve Jobs
2 Nominations
Ex Machina, Inside Out
1 Nomination
Anomalisa, Beasts of No Nation, Black Mass, Cinderella, Concussion, Creed, Far from the Madding Crowd, Fifty Shades of Grey, 45 Years, Furious 7, The Good Dinosaur, The Hunting Ground, Joy, Jurassic World, Kahlil Gabran’s The Prophet, Love and Mercy, Shaun the Sheep Movie, Trumbo, Youth
That’ll do it for now, folks! I’ll have my FINAL Oscar predictions up next week…
We begin 2016 with my weekly Oscar predictions leading up to nominations being announced on January 14th. This will mean I’ll have two more posts prognosticating on what and who will be nominated (one on Friday the 8th and one likely the day before the announcements).
A couple of quick notes on various races:
There is considerable speculation as to whether Rooney Mara will be nominated in the category of Best Actress or Supporting Actress for her work in Carol. So far, I’ve speculated a nomination for her in the latter. Today, I am changing it to the former.
Same goes for Alicia Vikander in The Danish Girl, but I’m keeping her in Supporting Actress for now. There is also speculation that her nod could come for Ex Machina and not Danish Girl.
The historic box office performance of Star Wars: The Force Awakens is increasing its shot at a Best Picture nomination. I’ve still got it on the outside looking in, but don’t be shocked if that changes in the coming days.
And with that, here’s my weekly predictions that list all possibilities for each race and how they’ve fluctuated since Christmas Day:
Best Picture
Spotlight (No Change)
Room (No Change)
The Big Short (+2)
Mad Max: Fury Road (+2)
Carol (-2)
The Martian (+1)
The Revenant (-3)
Brooklyn (No Change)
Bridge of Spies (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
10. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+8)
11. Inside Out (-2)
12. The Hateful Eight (No Change)
13. Straight Outta Compton (-2)
14. Beasts of No Nation (-1)
15. Son of Saul (+2)
16. Steve Jobs (No Change)
17. Creed (-2)
18. Sicario (+1)
19. Trumbo (-5)
20. The Danish Girl (No Change)
21. Anomalisa (Previously Unranked)
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Director
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight (No Change)
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
Ridley Scott, The Martian (+1)
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant (-1)
Todd Haynes, Carol (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. Adam McKay, The Big Short (+1)
7. Lenny Abrahamson, Room (-1)
8. Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies (No Change)
9. Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight (No Change)
10. Laszlo Nemes, Son of Saul (+3)
11. J.J. Abrams, Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+4)
12. John Crowley, Brooklyn (-2)
13. Cary Fukanaga, Beasts of No Nation (-2)
14. Ryan Coogler, Creed (-2)
DROPPED OUT: F. Gary Gray, Straight Outta Compton
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant (No Change)
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs (No Change)
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl (No Change)
Matt Damon, The Martian (+1)
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Johnny Depp, Black Mass (No Change)
7. Will Smith, Concussion (No Change)
8. Steve Carell, The Big Short (No Change)
9. Michael Caine, Youth (+1)
10. Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes (-1)
11. Michael B. Jordan, Creed (No Change)
12. Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies (No Change)
13. Geza Rohrig, Son of Saul (No Change)
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Actress
Brie Larson, Room (No Change)
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn (No Change)
Cate Blanchett, Carol (No Change)
Rooney Mara, Carol (Previously Unranked In This Category)
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years (-1)
7. Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road (-1)
8. Blythe Danner, I’ll See You In My Dreams (-1)
9. Helen Mirren, Woman in Gold (No Change)
DROPPED OUT: Sarah Silverman, I Smile Back
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Mara. Out: Rampling.
Best Supporting Actor
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies (No Change)
Sylvester Stallone, Creed (No Change)
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation (No Change)
Christian Bale, The Big Short (No Change)
Michael Shannon, 99 Homes (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael Keaton, Spotlight (-1)
7. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight (+1)
8. Tom Hardy, The Revenant (+1)
9. Paul Dano, Love and Mercy (-2)
10. Jacob Tremblay, Room (+1)
11. Benicio del Toro, Sicario (-1)
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Shannon. Out: Keaton.
Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight (+3)
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs (+1)
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl (-2)
Helen Mirren, Trumbo (+1)
Joan Allen, Room (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight (+1)
7. Jane Fonda, Youth (-1)
8. Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina (Previously Unranked)
9. Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria (-1)
10. Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy (No Change)
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Allen. Out: Rooney Mara (moved to Best Actress)
Best Original Screenplay
Spotlight (No Change)
Inside Out (No Change)
The Hateful Eight (No Change)
Bridge of Spies (No Change)
Ex Machina (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. Straight Outta Compton (No Change)
7. Love and Mercy (+2)
8. 99 Homes (-1)
9. Son of Saul (-1)
10. Sicario (No Change)
11. Joy (Previously Unranked)
DROPPED OUT: Youth
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Big Short (+1)
Room (+1)
Carol (-2)
Steve Jobs (No Change)
Brooklyn (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Martian (No Change)
7. The Revenant (+2)
8. Beasts of No Nation (-1)
9. Anomalisa (+1)
10. Trumbo (-2)
11. Creed (+2)
12. The Danish Girl (No Change)
13. Mad Max: Fury Road (-2)
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Animated Feature
Inside Out (No Change)
Anomalisa (No Change)
Shaun the Sheep Movie (+1)
The Peanuts Movie (+1)
Kahlil Gabran’s The Prophet (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Good Dinosaur (No Change)
7. When Marnie Was There (No Change)
8. Minions (Previously Unranked)
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Cinematography
The Revenant (No Change)
The Hateful Eight (+1)
Mad Max: Fury Road (-1)
Sicario (No Change)
Bridge of Spies (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Martian (No Change)
7. Son of Saul (-2)
8. Carol (-1)
9. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Previously Unranked)
DROPPED OUT: In the Heart of the Sea
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Bridge of Spies. Out: Son of Saul.
Best Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
The Revenant (+2)
Spotlight (-2)
The Martian (+2)
Steve Jobs (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sicario (Previously Unranked)
7. The Big Short (-4)
8. Bridge of Spies (-1)
9. The Hateful Eight (-1)
10. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (No Change)
11. Carol (Previously Unranked)
12. Room (-3)
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: The Martian. Out: The Big Short.
Best Production Design
Carol (No Change)
The Danish Girl (No Change)
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
Bridge of Spies (+1)
The Hateful Eight (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cinderella (No Change)
7. Brooklyn (-3)
8. The Revenant (+1)
9. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-1)
10. Far from the Madding Crowd (Previously Unranked)
11. MacBeth (-1)
DROPPED OUT: The Martian
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: The Hateful Eight. Out: Brooklyn.
Best Costume Design
Carol (+1)
The Danish Girl (-1)
Cinderella (No Change)
Brooklyn (No Change)
Far from the Madding Crowd (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Hateful Eight (+1)
7. Mad Max: Fury Road (-2)
8. MacBeth (+1)
9. The Revenant (+1)
10. Suffragette (-4)
11. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Previously Unranked)
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Far from the Madding Crowd. Out: Mad Max: Fury Road.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
The Revenant (+4)
Black Mass (+1)
Other Possibilities:
4. Concussion (Previously Unranked)
5. Mr. Holmes (+2)
6. The 100 Year Old Man Who Climbed Out of the Window and Disappeared (Previously Unranked)
7. Legend (Previously Unranked)
DROPPED OUT: The Danish Girl, Carol, Star Wars: The Force Awakens (these top seven finalists indicated above have now been announced)
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: The Revenant, Black Mass. OUT: The Danish Girl, Carol
Best Sound Mixing
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (No Change)
The Revenant (No Change)
The Martian (No Change)
Sicario (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Hateful Eight (-1)
7. In the Heart of the Sea (No Change)
8. Jurassic World (No Change)
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Sicario. Out: The Hateful Eight.
Best Sound Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
The Revenant (No Change)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+1)
The Martian (-1)
In the Heart of the Sea (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sicario (No Change)
7. The Hateful Eight (No Change)
8. Jurassic World (No Change)
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes.
Best Visual Effects
Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-1)
The Martian (No Change)
Jurassic World (No Change)
Ex Machina (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. In the Heart of the Sea (-1)
7. The Walk (-1)
8. Everest (Previously Unranked)
9. The Revenant (-2)
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Ex Machina. Out: In the Heart of the Sea.
Best Original Score
The Hateful Eight (No Change)
Bridge of Spies (No Change)
Carol (+1)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-1)
The Danish Girl (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spotlight (No Change)
7. Steve Jobs (+1)
8. Inside Out (+1)
9. Mad Max: Fury Road (-2)
10. The Revenant (Previously Unranked)
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Original Song
“Til It Happens to You” from The Hunting Ground (No Change)
“See You Again” from Furious 7 (+1)
“So Long” from Concussion (-1)
“Simple Song #3” from Youth (+1)
“Earned It” from Fifty Shades of Grey (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Writing’s on the Wall” from Spectre (+1)
7. “Love Me Like You Do” from Fifty Shades of Grey (-1)
DROPPED OUT: “I’ll See You In My Dreams” from I’ll See You in My Dreams
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
And there you have it – my latest Oscar predictions and first post of 2016!
We arrive at my weekly Oscar predictions and a new wrinkle has been added. I’m predicting every category with the exception of Foreign and Documentary (those will eventually be added).
As with last week, I’ll ranking according to my feelings on likelihood of the films and performers being nominated and let you know what’s changed since last week. The pluses and minuses and no changes indicated their ranking from last week to this week.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Spotlight (No Change)
The Revenant (No Change)
Room (No Change)
Brooklyn (+3)
Carol (-1)
The Martian (No Change)
Mad Max: Fury Road (-2)
Bridge of Spies (No Change)
The Big Short (+2)
Other Possibilities:
10. Inside Out (No Change)
11. The Hateful Eight (-2)
12. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+11)
13. Trumbo (+6)
14. Son of Saul (+3)
15. The Danish Girl (+1)
16. Sicario (+5)
17. Beasts of No Nation (-3)
18. Steve Jobs (-5)
19. Straight Outta Compton (-4)
20. Creed (-8)
21. Joy (-2)
22. Love and Mercy (-1)
23. Anomalisa (-6)
What’s Changed Since Last Week – IN: The Big Short. OUT: The Hateful Eight.
Best Director
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight (No Change)
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant (No Change)
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
Ridley Scott, The Martian (No Change)
Todd Haynes, Carol (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies (+1)
7. Lenny Abrahamson, Room (-1)
8. J.J. Abrams, Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+9)
9. John Crowley, Brooklyn (No Change)
10. Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight (-2)
11. Adam McKay, The Big Short (+1)
12. Laszlo Nemes, Son of Saul (+1)
13. Jay Roach, Trumbo (Previously Not Ranked)
14. Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl (+2)
15. Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs (-1)
16. Cary Fukunaga, Beasts of No Nation (-5)
17. Ryan Coogler, Creed (-7)
DROPPED OUT: David O. Russell, Joy
What’s Changed Since Last Week: NO CHANGES
Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant (No Change)
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs (+1)
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl (-1)
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo (+1)
Johnny Depp, Black Mass (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Matt Damon, The Martian (No Change)
7. Will Smith, Concussion (No Change)
8. Michael Caine, Youth (+3)
9. Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes (No Change)
10. Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies (No Change)
11. Geza Rohrig, Son of Saul (+2)
12. Steve Carell, The Big Short (No Change)
13. Michael B. Jordan, Creed (-5)
What’s Changed Since Last Week: No Changes
Best Actress
Brie Larson, Room (No Change)
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn (No Change)
Cate Blanchett, Carol (No Change)
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years (No Change)
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
7. Helen Mirren, Woman in Gold (+2)
8. Blythe Danner, I’ll See You in My Dreams (-2)
9. Sarah Silverman, I Smile Back (-1)
10. Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van (No Change)
11. Carey Mulligan, Suffragette (+1)
12. Lily Tomlin, Grandma (-1)
What’s Changed Since Last Week: No Changes
Best Supporting Actor
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies (No Change)
Michael Keaton, Spotlight (+1)
Paul Dano, Love and Mercy (+1)
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation (+1)
Sylvester Stallone, Creed (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael Shannon, 99 Homes (+4)
7. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight (-1)
8. Tom Hardy, The Revenant (No Change)
9. Christian Bale, The Big Short (-2)
10. Jacob Tremblay, Room (+1)
11. Benicio del Toro, Sicario (-2)
What’s Changed Since Last Week: No Changes
Best Supporting Actress
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl (No Change)
Rooney Mara, Carol (No Change)
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight (No Change)
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs (No Change)
Helen Mirren, Trumbo (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight (+4)
7. Jane Fonda, Youth (-2)
8. Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria (-2)
9. Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy (No Change)
10. Joan Allen, Room (-2)
DROPPED OUT: Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina
What’s Changed Since Last Week – IN: Helen Mirren, OUT: Jane Fonda.
Best Original Screenplay
Spotlight (No Change)
Inside Out (+1)
The Hateful Eight (-1)
Bridge of Spies (No Change)
Love and Mercy (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Son of Saul (-1)
7. Mad Max: Fury Road (Previously Not Ranked)
8. 99 Homes (No Change)
9. Sicario (+1)
10. Ex Machina (+1)
11. Straight Outta Compton (-4)
12. Youth (Previously Not Ranked)
13. Joy (-4)
14. Trainwreck (-2)
What’s Changed Since Last Week – IN: Love and Mercy. OUT: Son of Saul.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Room (+2)
Brooklyn (+2)
Carol (-2)
The Big Short (+1)
Steve Jobs (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Martian (+1)
7. Trumbo (+3)
8. The Revenant (-2)
9. Beasts of No Nation (No Change)
10. Anomalisa (-2)
11. The Danish Girl (+1)
DROPPED OUT: Creed
What’s Changed Since Last Week: No Changes
Best Animated Feature (First Time Predictions)
Inside Out
Anomalisa
Kahlil Gobran’s The Prophet
Shaun the Sheep Movie
The Good Dinosaur
Other Possibilities:
6. The Peanuts Movie
7. When Marnie Was There
8. Home
Best Cinematography (First Time Predictions)
The Hateful Eight
The Revenant
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
Sicario
Other Possibilities:
6. Carol
7. Bridge of Spies
8. The Danish Girl
Best Production Design (First Time Predictions)
Carol
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
Cinderella
Bridge of Spies
Other Possibilities:
6. The Revenant
7. Brooklyn
8. The Martian
9. The Hateful Eight
10. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
11. MacBeth
Best Editing (First Time Predictions)
Spotlight
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
The Big Short
Steve Jobs
Other Possibilities:
6. The Hateful Eight
7. The Martian
8. Bridge of Spies
9. Room
Best Costume Design (First Time Predictions)
Carol
Cinderella
Brooklyn
The Danish Girl
Far from the Madding Crowd
Other Possibilities:
6. Mad Max: Fury Road
7. Suffragette
8. Trumbo
9. The Hateful Eight
10. MacBeth
Best Makeup and Hairstyling (First Time Predictions)
The Danish Girl
Carol
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Other Possibilities:
4. Mad Max: Fury Road
5. Black Mass
6. Pan
7. The Hateful Eight
8. The Revenant
Best Visual Effects (First Time Predictions)
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Jurassic World
The Walk
Other Possibilities:
6. The Revenant
7. In the Heart of the Sea
8. Ex Machina
Best Sound Mixing (First Time Predictions)
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
The Revenant
Sicario
Other Possibilities:
6. Jurassic World
7. The Hateful Eight
8. In the Heart of the Sea
Best Sound Editing (First Time Predictions)
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
The Martian
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
In the Heart of the Sea
Other Possibilities:
6. Sicario
7. The Hateful Eight
8. Jurassic World
Best Original Score (First Time Predictions)
The Hateful Eight
Carol
Spotlight
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
The Danish Girl
Other Possibilities:
6. The Revenant
7. Bridge of Spies
8. Sicario
9. Brooklyn
10. Mad Max: Fury Road
11. Southpaw
Best Original Song (First Time Predictions)
“Til It Happens To You” from The Hunting Ground
“See You Again” from Furious 7
“Love Me Like You Do” from Fifty Shades of Grey
“Writing’s on the Wall” from Spectre
“Earned It” from Fifty Shades of Grey
Other Possibilities:
6. “Simple Song #3” from Youth
7. “One Kind of Love” from Love and Mercy
8. “So Long” from Concussion
Whew! Those predictions reflect a current belief of the following films garnering nominations with number included:
9 Nominations
Carol
8 Nominations
Mad Max: Fury Road
7 Nominations
The Revenant
6 Nominations
The Danish Girl, The Martian, Spotlight
5 Nominations
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
4 Nominations
Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, The Hateful Eight, Steve Jobs
3 Nominations
The Big Short, Room
2 Nominations
Cinderella, Fifty Shades of Grey, Inside Out, Love and Mercy, Sicario, Trumbo
1 Nomination
Anomalisa, Beasts of No Nation, Black Mass, Creed, Far from the Madding Crowd, 45 Years, Furious 7, The Good Dinosaur, The Hunting Ground, In the Heat of the Sea, Joy, Jurassic World, Kahlil Gabron’s The Prophet, Shaun the Sheep Movie, Spectre, The Walk
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