Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie Box Office Prediction

Dreamworks is the first studio with an animated feature for the summer season as Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie hits screens next weekend. Based on a series of well-known childrens books by Dav Pilkey, the film features the voices of Kevin Hart, Ed Helms, Nick Kroll, Jordan Peele, and Thomas Middleditch. The screenplay comes from Nicholas Stoller, who made last year’s under performing Storks. 

Underpants is certainly more of a question mark than some of the other animated tales this season – namely Cars 3 and Despicable Me 3, both of which arrive in June. That said, Dreamworks has a mostly solid history of producing hits. 2014’s Mr. Peabody & Sherman debuted to $32 million, 2015’s Home exceeded expectations with $52 million, Trolls made $46 million last fall, and The Boss Baby opened to $50 million in March, outpacing its projections.

While I don’t see this effort getting past $40 million (though it could happen), I believe a high 20s to maybe low 30s debut is in the cards as the studio likely hopes for a sequel (based on the title).

Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie opening weekend prediction: $27.4 million

For my Wonder Woman prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/05/25/wonder-woman-box-office-prediction/

Todd’s Weekly Oscar Predictions: December 18th Edition

We arrive at my weekly Oscar predictions and a new wrinkle has been added. I’m predicting every category with the exception of Foreign and Documentary (those will eventually be added).

As with last week, I’ll ranking according to my feelings on likelihood of the films and performers being nominated and let you know what’s changed since last week. The pluses and minuses and no changes indicated their ranking from last week to this week.

Let’s get to it!

Best Picture

  1. Spotlight (No Change)
  2. The Revenant (No Change)
  3. Room (No Change)
  4. Brooklyn (+3)
  5. Carol (-1)
  6. The Martian (No Change)
  7. Mad Max: Fury Road (-2)
  8. Bridge of Spies (No Change)
  9. The Big Short (+2)

Other Possibilities:

10. Inside Out (No Change)

11. The Hateful Eight (-2)

12. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+11)

13. Trumbo (+6)

14. Son of Saul (+3)

15. The Danish Girl (+1)

16. Sicario (+5)

17. Beasts of No Nation (-3)

18. Steve Jobs (-5)

19. Straight Outta Compton (-4)

20. Creed (-8)

21. Joy (-2)

22. Love and Mercy (-1)

23. Anomalisa (-6)

What’s Changed Since Last Week – IN: The Big Short. OUT: The Hateful Eight.

Best Director

  1. Tom McCarthy, Spotlight (No Change)
  2. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant (No Change)
  3. George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
  4. Ridley Scott, The Martian (No Change)
  5. Todd Haynes, Carol (No Change)

Other Possibilities:

6. Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies (+1)

7. Lenny Abrahamson, Room (-1)

8. J.J. Abrams, Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+9)

9. John Crowley, Brooklyn (No Change)

10. Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight (-2)

11. Adam McKay, The Big Short (+1)

12. Laszlo Nemes, Son of Saul (+1)

13. Jay Roach, Trumbo (Previously Not Ranked)

14. Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl (+2)

15. Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs (-1)

16. Cary Fukunaga, Beasts of No Nation (-5)

17. Ryan Coogler, Creed (-7)

DROPPED OUT: David O. Russell, Joy

What’s Changed Since Last Week: NO CHANGES

Best Actor

  1. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant (No Change)
  2. Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs (+1)
  3. Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl (-1)
  4. Bryan Cranston, Trumbo (+1)
  5. Johnny Depp, Black Mass (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Matt Damon, The Martian (No Change)

7. Will Smith, Concussion (No Change)

8. Michael Caine, Youth (+3)

9. Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes (No Change)

10. Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies (No Change)

11. Geza Rohrig, Son of Saul (+2)

12. Steve Carell, The Big Short (No Change)

13. Michael B. Jordan, Creed (-5)

What’s Changed Since Last Week: No Changes

Best Actress

  1. Brie Larson, Room (No Change)
  2. Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn (No Change)
  3. Cate Blanchett, Carol (No Change)
  4. Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years (No Change)
  5. Jennifer Lawrence, Joy (No Change)

Other Possibilities:

6. Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)

7. Helen Mirren, Woman in Gold (+2)

8. Blythe Danner, I’ll See You in My Dreams (-2)

9. Sarah Silverman, I Smile Back (-1)

10. Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van (No Change)

11. Carey Mulligan, Suffragette (+1)

12. Lily Tomlin, Grandma (-1)

What’s Changed Since Last Week: No Changes

Best Supporting Actor

  1. Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies (No Change)
  2. Michael Keaton, Spotlight (+1)
  3. Paul Dano, Love and Mercy (+1)
  4. Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation (+1)
  5. Sylvester Stallone, Creed (-3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael Shannon, 99 Homes (+4)

7. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight (-1)

8. Tom Hardy, The Revenant (No Change)

9. Christian Bale, The Big Short (-2)

10. Jacob Tremblay, Room (+1)

11. Benicio del Toro, Sicario (-2)

What’s Changed Since Last Week: No Changes

Best Supporting Actress

  1. Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl (No Change)
  2. Rooney Mara, Carol (No Change)
  3. Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight (No Change)
  4. Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs (No Change)
  5. Helen Mirren, Trumbo (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight (+4)

7. Jane Fonda, Youth (-2)

8. Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria (-2)

9. Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy (No Change)

10. Joan Allen, Room (-2)

DROPPED OUT: Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina

What’s Changed Since Last Week – IN: Helen Mirren, OUT: Jane Fonda.

Best Original Screenplay 

  1. Spotlight (No Change)
  2. Inside Out (+1)
  3. The Hateful Eight (-1)
  4. Bridge of Spies (No Change)
  5. Love and Mercy (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Son of Saul (-1)

7. Mad Max: Fury Road (Previously Not Ranked)

8. 99 Homes (No Change)

9. Sicario (+1)

10. Ex Machina (+1)

11. Straight Outta Compton (-4)

12. Youth (Previously Not Ranked)

13. Joy (-4)

14. Trainwreck (-2)

What’s Changed Since Last Week – IN: Love and Mercy. OUT: Son of Saul.

Best Adapted Screenplay

  1. Room (+2)
  2. Brooklyn (+2)
  3. Carol (-2)
  4. The Big Short (+1)
  5. Steve Jobs (-3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Martian (+1)

7. Trumbo (+3)

8. The Revenant (-2)

9. Beasts of No Nation (No Change)

10. Anomalisa (-2)

11. The Danish Girl (+1)

DROPPED OUT: Creed

What’s Changed Since Last Week: No Changes

Best Animated Feature (First Time Predictions)

  1. Inside Out
  2. Anomalisa
  3. Kahlil Gobran’s The Prophet
  4. Shaun the Sheep Movie
  5. The Good Dinosaur

Other Possibilities:

6. The Peanuts Movie

7. When Marnie Was There

8. Home

Best Cinematography (First Time Predictions)

  1. The Hateful Eight
  2. The Revenant
  3. Mad Max: Fury Road
  4. The Martian
  5. Sicario

Other Possibilities:

6. Carol

7. Bridge of Spies

8. The Danish Girl

Best Production Design (First Time Predictions)

  1. Carol
  2. The Danish Girl
  3. Mad Max: Fury Road
  4. Cinderella
  5. Bridge of Spies

Other Possibilities:

6. The Revenant

7. Brooklyn

8. The Martian

9. The Hateful Eight

10. Star Wars: The Force Awakens

11. MacBeth

Best Editing (First Time Predictions)

  1. Spotlight
  2. Mad Max: Fury Road
  3. The Revenant
  4. The Big Short
  5. Steve Jobs

Other Possibilities:

6. The Hateful Eight

7. The Martian

8. Bridge of Spies

9. Room

Best Costume Design (First Time Predictions)

  1. Carol
  2. Cinderella
  3. Brooklyn
  4. The Danish Girl
  5. Far from the Madding Crowd

Other Possibilities:

6. Mad Max: Fury Road

7. Suffragette

8. Trumbo

9. The Hateful Eight

10. MacBeth

Best Makeup and Hairstyling (First Time Predictions)

  1. The Danish Girl
  2. Carol
  3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Other Possibilities:

4. Mad Max: Fury Road

5. Black Mass

6. Pan

7. The Hateful Eight

8. The Revenant

Best Visual Effects (First Time Predictions)

  1. Mad Max: Fury Road
  2. The Martian
  3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
  4. Jurassic World
  5. The Walk

Other Possibilities:

6. The Revenant

7. In the Heart of the Sea

8. Ex Machina

Best Sound Mixing (First Time Predictions)

  1. Mad Max: Fury Road
  2. The Martian
  3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
  4. The Revenant
  5. Sicario

Other Possibilities:

6. Jurassic World

7. The Hateful Eight

8. In the Heart of the Sea

Best Sound Editing (First Time Predictions)

  1. Mad Max: Fury Road
  2. The Revenant
  3. The Martian
  4. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
  5. In the Heart of the Sea

Other Possibilities:

6. Sicario

7. The Hateful Eight

8. Jurassic World

Best Original Score (First Time Predictions)

  1. The Hateful Eight
  2. Carol
  3. Spotlight
  4. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
  5. The Danish Girl

Other Possibilities:

6. The Revenant

7. Bridge of Spies

8. Sicario

9. Brooklyn

10. Mad Max: Fury Road

11. Southpaw

Best Original Song (First Time Predictions)

  1. “Til It Happens To You” from The Hunting Ground
  2. “See You Again” from Furious 7
  3. “Love Me Like You Do” from Fifty Shades of Grey
  4. “Writing’s on the Wall” from Spectre
  5. “Earned It” from Fifty Shades of Grey

Other Possibilities:

6. “Simple Song #3” from Youth

7. “One Kind of Love” from Love and Mercy

8. “So Long” from Concussion

Whew! Those predictions reflect a current belief of the following films garnering nominations with number included:

9 Nominations

Carol

8 Nominations

Mad Max: Fury Road

7 Nominations

The Revenant

6 Nominations

The Danish Girl, The Martian, Spotlight

5 Nominations

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

4 Nominations

Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, The Hateful Eight, Steve Jobs

3 Nominations

The Big Short, Room

2 Nominations

Cinderella, Fifty Shades of Grey, Inside Out, Love and Mercy, Sicario, Trumbo

1 Nomination

Anomalisa, Beasts of No Nation, Black Mass, Creed, Far from the Madding Crowd, 45 Years, Furious 7, The Good Dinosaur, The Hunting Ground, In the Heat of the Sea, Joy, Jurassic World, Kahlil Gabron’s The Prophet, Shaun the Sheep Movie, Spectre, The Walk

 

Box Office Predictions: May 8-10

Only one new film is daring to even challenge the second weekend of the Avengers squad and that would be Hot Pursuit, the cop comedy starring Reese Witherspoon and Sofia Vergara. It will attempt to bring in the female crowd and you can read my detailed prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/05/02/hot-pursuit-box-office-prediction/

While I have Pursuit getting off to a pretty decent start, nothing will stand in the way of Iron Man and company reigning supreme for two weeks in a row. The big question is how far Ultron falls in its second frame. Will it drop the 50% that its 2012 predecessor did or in the 58% range of Iron Man 3 in 2013? I’ve got it dropping somewhere in between, though closer to the former (more on Avengers opening weekend further down).

The rest of the top five should be littered with leftovers all making under $4 million. The Jack Black/James Marsden comedy The D Train is only opening on around 700 screens and I’ll predict $1.7 million for it, which would leave it outside the top five.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend:

1. Avengers: Age of Ultron

Predicted Gross: $90.6 million (representing a drop of 52%)

2. Hot Pursuit

Predicted Gross: $21.3 million

3. Furious 7

Predicted Gross: $3.5 million (representing a drop of 48%)

4. The Age of Adaline

Predicted Gross: $3.5 million (representing a drop of 45%)

5. Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2

Predicted Gross: $3.2 million (representing a drop of 46%)

Box Office Results (May 1-3)

All prognosticators had one question when it came to Avengers: Age of Ultron: would it manage to have the largest domestic opening of all time and beat out the $207.4 million record of The Avengers? I predicted it would with an estimate of $212.7 million.

And I and many others were wrong and you probably have American Pharoah, Blake Griffin, Tim Duncan, Floyd Mayweather, and Manny Pacquiao to thank. Ultron still performed gangbusters with $191.2 million, posting the second all-time domestic debut. Yet the sports bonanza that took place all day and night Saturday likely kept it from setting the record. Still – don’t expect to hear much complaining from Disney or Marvel.

Holdovers populated the rest of the top five with all pictures dropping further than I thought they would, due to Avengers and all the weekend activity. Furious 7 was second with $6.6 million (I said $9.6M) and it lifted its cume to $331M. The Age of Adaline took third in its second weekend with $6.2 million ($8M predicted here) and its ten day total is $23M. Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 was fourth with $5.8 million (I said $8.7M) and it’s made $51M at press time. Finally, Home was fifth with $3.4 million (my projection: $5.8M) and its total is $158M.

That’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: May 1-3

The 2015 Summer Movie Season officially kicks off this Friday and there’s a rather big release to start things off: Avengers: Age of Ultron, Marvel’s sequel to the third highest grossing picture of all time. The event film stands a very legitimate shot at scoring the largest opening weekend in domestic box office history (breaking its predecessor’s record) and I’m predicting it will – barely. You can read my detailed prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/04/24/avengers-age-of-ultron-box-office-prediction/

No other new release would dare stand in the way of Iron Man, Captain America, and their superhero compadres – so the rest of the top five will be populated by spring leftovers. Furious 7 will fall to the runner-up spot with Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2, The Age of Adaline, and Home behind it.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend:

1. Avengers: Age of Ultron

Predicted Gross: $212.7 million

2. Furious 7

Predicted Gross: $9.6 million (representing a drop of 46%)

3. Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2

Predicted Gross: $8.7 million (representing a drop of 41%)

4. The Age of Adaline

Predicted Gross: $8 million (representing a drop of 40%)

5. Home

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million (representing a drop of 29%)

Box Office Results (April 24-26)

As expected, Furious 7 led the box office for the fourth weekend in a row with $17.8 million, a bit higher than my $15.6M estimate. The massive hit has taken in $320 million so far.

Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 also managed to surpass my prediction in its second weekend with $14.7 million as compared to my $12M projection. The Kevin James sequel won’t reach the heights of the original, but it’s grossed a solid $43 million in ten days of release.

The romantic drama The Age of Adaline had a fairly decent roll out with $13.2 million, right on target with $13.3M prediction. It may hold up OK in subsequent weekends.

The animated Home took fourth with $8 million, outpacing my $6.5M estimate and its total is at $153M. #5 belonged to horror pic Unfriended in weekend two with $6.1 million, just under my $6.9M prediction and it stands at $25 million.

Critically acclaimed British sci-fi import Ex Machina opened sixth with $5.4 million (below my $7.1M projection, but still a pretty impressive start).

Finally, war drama Little Boy tanked in 13th place with just $2.7 million, just ahead of my $2.1M estimate.

And that’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: April 24-26

The final weekend at the box office in 2015 will likely be memorable only as “the weekend before Avengers: Age of Ultron comes out” as that summer season kick off blockbuster may be poised for the largest domestic opening of all time.

As for this weekend, the romance The Age of Adaline with Blake Lively and Harrison Ford comes out. You can read my detailed prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/04/19/the-age-of-adaline-box-office-prediction/

Adaline does have a shot at the top spot, but I’m projecting it will fall a bit short of Furious 7, allowing that enormous hit to have its fourth weekend at #1.

The real wild card this weekend is Ex Machina, a critically acclaimed British science entry starring Domhnall Gleeson and Oscar Isaac. My prediction post on it is here and I’m estimating it’ll land in fourth place:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/04/21/ex-machina-box-office-prediction/

Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 got off to a healthy start last weekend and should lose about half its audience in its sophomore frame. Horror flick Unfriended should drop over 50%, as most pics of its genre in their second weekends do. Home, Dreamworks animated solid performer, should round out the top five.

There’s also Little Boy, a World War II comedic drama with Kevin James. Huh? I don’t expect much out of it as it should fall far outside of the top six:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/04/21/little-boy-box-office-prediction/

And with that, my predictions for the weekend:

1. Furious 7

Predicted Gross: $15.6 million (representing a drop of 46%)

2. The Age of Adaline

Predicted Gross: $13.3 million

3. Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2

Predicted Gross: $12 million (representing a drop of 49%)

4. Ex Machina

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million

5. Unfriended

Predicted Gross: $6.9 million (representing a drop of 56%)

6. Home

Predicted Gross: $6.5 million (representing a drop of 39%)

Box Office Results (April 17-19)

In its third weekend, Furious 7 was tops again with $29.1 million, just under my $30.4M estimate. The Universal juggernaut stands at $294 million.

Kevin James surpassed most expectations as his critically drubbed Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 earned $23.7 million, a bit higher than my $21.4M prediction. The sequel couldn’t match the $31 million accomplished by the original, but it wasn’t expected to and this is a solid result.

Similarly, the low budget horror entry Unfriended had a commendable $15.8 million debut, outpacing my $12.6M projection.

In fourth, Home’s $10.6 million haul came in below my $12.3M estimate and its total is at $142 million. In its second weekend, romantic drama The Longest Ride was fifth with $7 million. My prediction? Exactly that! It’s made $23 million in its ten days of release.

Disney’s nature documentary Monkey Kingdom made just $4.5 million for a weak 8th place showing, not reaching my $5.9M guess. Even further down the chart and outside the top ten, the James Franco/Jonah Hill drama True Story opened on around 800 screens and managed a paltry $1.9 million (under my generous $3.7M prediction). Even worse, Child 44 with Tom Hardy premiered on just over 500 screens. I thought it would eek out a $2.1 million gross, yet it bombed badly with just $621,000 for a 17th place debut.

And that’ll do it for now, friends! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: April 17-19

Three new films open in wide release with two other rather high-profile entries debuting in more limited release. The trio of newbies going wide are the Kevin James sequel Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2, horror pic Unfriended, and Disney nature documentary Monkey Kingdom. You can review my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/04/11/paul-blart-mall-cop-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/04/12/unfriended-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/04/12/monkey-kingdom-box-office-prediction/

Blart would love to replicate the $31 million debut accomplished by its predecessor in 2009. If it manages that, it would definitely challenge the third weekend of juggernaut Furious 7 for the top spot. However, that seems unlikely and James appears poised for the runner-up position.

Unfriended certainly has the potential for a robust opening (many horror flicks over perform), but I have it only posting so-so numbers. Monkey Kingdom will be lucky to break into the top five and my prediction has it not accomplishing that kind of business.

As for holdovers, Furious should three-peat at the top while the four and five spots should be filled by Home and The Longest Ride.

Outside of the top five, the spy thriller Child 44 with Tom Hardy and Gary Oldman rolls out on only about 800 screens while the crime drama True Story with James Franco and Jonah Hill premieres in approximately 550 venues. Due to their low number of screens, their openings should be fairly minor and I didn’t bother to do individual posts about them. I’ll say Child 44 earns $2.1 million while True Story makes $3.7 million.

And with that, my top six predictions for the weekend:

1. Furious 7

Predicted Gross: $30.4 million (representing a drop of 49%)

2. Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2

Predicted Gross: $21.4 million

3. Unfriended

Predicted Gross: $12.6 million

4. Home

Predicted Gross: $12.3 million (representing a drop of 34%)

5. The Longest Ride

Predicted Gross: $7 million (representing a drop of 46%)

6. Monkey Kingdom Predicted Gross: $5.9 million

Box Office Results (April 10-12)

As expected, Furious 7 easily topped the charts in weekend #2 with $59.5 million, just above my $56.5M estimate. The blockbuster has amassed an amazing $251 million in just ten days and is likely to rule the entire month of April at the top spot.

Dreamworks animated Home continued its solid run with $18.5 million in its third weekend, topping my $15.3M projection. Its made $129 million so far.

The Nicholas Sparks adapted romantic drama The Longest Ride had a middling premiere with $13 million, close to my $12.2M prediction. With no star power, it struggled a bit to reach its target audience.

Get Hard was fourth with $8.2 million (compared to my $6.1M prediction). The Will Ferrell/Kevin Hart teaming has earned $70 million at press time. The five spot belonged to Cinderella with $7.1 million, in line with my $7.3M projection and its total stands at $180M.

Elsewhere down the chart, the Helen Mirren/Ryan Reynolds drama Woman in Gold expanded its theater count for a respectable 7th place showing at $5.4 million.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: April 10-12

Only one newcomer is going against the second weekend of Furious 7 as the romantic drama The Longest Ride debuts, based on the Nicholas Sparks bestseller. You can find my detailed prediction post on it right here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/04/04/the-longest-ride-box-office-prediction/

I will readily admit that Ride has the potential to open bigger than my prediction. My estimate comes from the belief it will barely outdo the last Sparks adaptation, The Best of Me, which underwhelmed in its performance last year. Still, it could also serve as shrewd counter programming to Furious 7. As predicted, however, I have it landing in third.

There is no doubt that Furious will easily repeat at #1 after its massive and record setting debut this past weekend (more on that below). It’s sure to suffer a healthy decline in weekend #2, but little else could be expected after opening so big.

I have the animated Home remaining #2, though it could find itself in a close race with Ride. As for the rest of the top five, I have Cinderella remaining in fourth, as it should suffer a smaller decline than Get Hard.

And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

1. Furious 7

Predicted Gross: $56.5 million (representing a drop of 61%)

2. Home

Predicted Gross: $15.3 million (representing a drop of 43%)

3. The Longest Ride

Predicted Gross: $12.2 million

4. Cinderella

Predicted Gross: $7.3 million (representing a drop of 37%)

5. Get Hard

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million (representing a drop of 54%)

Box Office Results (April 3-5)

The seventh edition of the Fast and Furious franchise raced into the history books with the heftiest April opening in box office history with an astounding $147.1 million, speeding beyond my $117.4M prediction. That is good for the ninth largest premiere of all time. The series has been on an incredible hot streak lately. Paul Walker’s final screen appearance also may have added a curiosity factor for some.

Dropping to second was Home in weekend #2 with $27 million, a bit below my $29.3M estimate. The Dreamworks animated tale has done well so far with $95 million in the bank.

The critically panned Will Ferrell/Kevin Hart comedy suffered a big drop in its sophomore frame with $13.1 million, under my $15.4M prediction. It’s earned $57 million and is highly unlikely to reach the century mark.

Cinderella was fourth with $10.1 million, on target with my $9.8M projection. The Disney live-action adaptation stands at $167M. Insurgent was fifth as it also grossed $10.1 million (just under my $10.9M prediction). Its three-week total is at $103M and it will surely gross less than its predecessor Divergent. 

That’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: April 3-5

It’s Easter weekend at the box office and Furious 7, the seventh installment of the wildly popular Fast and Furious franchise, looks to set the all-time April opening weekend record and mark the largest debut of 2015 so far. My prediction has it managing both. My detailed prediction post can be read here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/03/28/furious-7-box-office-prediction/

With Furious being the only new player this weekend (any direct competitors smartly got out of the way), that just leaves holdovers. Dreamworks animated Home had a much higher premiere than anyone (especially me) anticipated. It should dip by the low 40s in its sophomore frame.

The Will Ferrell/Kevin Hart comedy Get Hard also experienced a solid opening, but it looks poised for a heftier fall in weekend two. Insurgent and Cinderella should round out the top five.

And with that, my predictions for the holiday weekend:

1. Furious 7

Predicted Gross: $117.4 million

2. Home

Predicted Gross: $29.3 million (representing a drop of 43%)

3. Get Hard

Predicted Gross: $15.4 million (representing a drop of 54%)

4. Insurgent

Predicted Gross: $10.9 million (representing a drop of 49%)

5. Cinderella

Predicted Gross: $9.8 million (representing a drop of 42%)

Box Office Results (March 27-29)

As mentioned, the animated Home surpassed everyone’s expectations with a stealthy $52.1 million debut, rocketing beyond my meager $24.6M projection. Clearly, family audiences were ready for something new and decided there was no place like Home this weekend.

Get Hard had a solid opening with $33.8 million, a bit above my $30.3M prediction. On the flip side, it earned a mediocre B Cinemascore grade and was savaged by critics, so it seems destined to fade pretty quickly.

Last week’s champ Insurgent fell to third with $21.5 million in weekend #2, a bit below my $24M estimate. It is currently lagging behind the pace that its predecessor Divergent accomplished and the two week total stands at $85 million.

Cinderella was fourth with $17 million, under my $19.1M projection. The Disney hit’s total is currently at $149 million.

The critically lauded indie horror pic It Follows opened fifth with a commendable $3.8 million on just 1200 screens, outpacing my $2.7M prediction.

In sixth was Kingsman: The Secret Service at $2.9 million, just under my $3.5M projection. Its total is at $119 million.

And that’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: March 27-29

The last week of March brings two titles to the multiplex that could easily place first and second: the Will Ferrell/Kevin Hart comedy Get Hard and Dreamworks animated flick Home. You can peruse my detailed projections on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/03/21/get-hard-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/03/21/home-box-office-prediction/

Get Hard should rule the weekend unless its quite negative reviews give it a softer opening (so to speak) than expected. Home should manage an OK debut for an animated pic.

As for holdovers, Insurgent opened a little lighter than anticipated and it should lose more than half its audience in weekend two, like predecessor Divergent did. Cinderella should place fourth in weekend #3 while nearly two month old Kingsman: The Secret Service may stay at the five spot.

And with that, my projections for the weekend’s top five:

1. Get Hard

Predicted Gross: $30.3 million

2. Home

Predicted Gross: $24.6 million

3. Insurgent

Predicted Gross: $24 million (representing a drop of 54%)

4. Cinderella

Predicted Gross: $19.1 million (representing a drop of 45%)

5. Kingsman: The Secret Service

Predicted Gross: $3.5 million (representing a drop of 25%)

Box Office Results (March 20-22)

As mentioned, YA sequel Insurgent came in a bit lower than expected with $52.2 million, under my generous $62.1M prediction and slightly under what Divergent accomplished a year ago. This is certainly not a huge letdown for the studio, but most prognosticators had this debuting higher than the original.

Cinderella dropped to second in its sophomore frame with $34.9 million, just below my $36.9M projection. The Disney live-action hit has amassed $122 million in ten days.

Liam Neeson’s action dud Run All Night was third in weekend #2 with $5 million, in line with my $5.6M estimate. It’s made just $19 million so far.

Neeson’s Taken director stumbled with The Gunman, Sean Penn’s action thriller which flopped with just $5 million out of the gate, below my $6.8M prediction.

Kingsman: The Secret Service managed to stay in the top five with $4.6 million. I incorrectly didn’t include it in the top five. Its total stands at $114 million.

Finally, faith based drama Do You Believe? bombed with a paltry $3.5 million for sixth place. Many similar themed pictures debuted to bigger than expected results in 2014 and I incorrectly believed this would, estimating a $12.3M opening. Oops.

That’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

Home Box Office Prediction

Dreamworks Animation is hoping to have a kiddie hit on their hands as Home opens this Friday. The animated tale features the vocal work of Rihanna, Jennifer Lopez, Steve Martin and Jim Parsons and comes from Over the Hedge director Tim Johnson.

Lately, the animation wing of Dreamworks has seen some disappointments as both 2014’s Mr. Peabody and Sherman and How to Train Your Dragon 2 failed to match expectations. While there isn’t much in the way of family competition, with the exception of Cinderella’s third weekend, Home seems likely to perform just OK. I believe it’ll struggle to reach $25 million out of the gate.

Home opening weekend prediction: $24.6 million

For my Get Hard prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/03/21/get-hard-box-office-prediction/