Will audiences flock to The Sheep Detectives on May 8th? Amazon MGM hopes so with the family friendly tale based on a 2005 Leonie Swann novel. Mixing mystery with comedy, Hugh Jackman leads the human cast alongside Nicholas Braun, Nicholas Galitzine, Molly Gordon, Hong Chau, and Emma Thompson. Voicing the crime solving title creatures are Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Bryan Cranston, Chris O’Dowd, Regina Hall, Patrick Stewart, Bella Ramsey, and Brett Goldstein. Kyle Balda, a veteran of the Despicable Me and Minions franchises, directs.
Critics are being kind with 94% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 66 Metacritic. That could assist with parents taking the kids even though the source material is not huge IP domestically. A best case scenario could be a start in the high teens though I’m buying the projections in the lower to mid teens.
The Sheep Detectives opening weekend prediction: $14.6 million
A family-friendly comedy and a whodunit, The Sheep Detectives arrives in theaters May 8th. Kyle Balda, a veteran of animated features including Minions and Despicable Me 3, directs. The live-action cast is led by Hugh Jackman with Nicholas Braun, Nicholas Galitzine, Molly Gordon, Hong Chau, and Emma Thompson providing support. Voicing the wooly creatures involved are Julia Louis-Dreyus, Bryan Cranston, Chris O’Dowd, Regina Hall, Patrick Stewart, Bella Ramsey, and Brett Goldstein.
Critics are being kind with a 96% Rotten Tomatoes score and more down-to-earth 67 Metacritic. Amazon MGM are hoping kids flock to it though this shouldn’t be an awards player despite a smattering of Babe comparisons. There could be one exception as the BAFTAs could put it up in their Best Children’s & Family Film category. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Out this weekend after a Tribeca Film Festival premiere days ago, Jon S. Baird (Stan & Ollie, Tetris) helms the family dramedy Everything’s Going to Be Great. Focused on a clan of regional theater players, Allison Janney and Bryan Cranston are the parents in this coming-of-age tale costarring Benjamin Evan Ainsworth, Jack Champion, Simon Rex, and Chris Cooper.
According to several critics, everything in Everything‘s is not great. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 50% with Metacritic at 49. Despite the presence of Academy recipients like Janney and Cooper and a nominee in Cranston, this will not be a contender. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Wes Anderson’s latest The Phoenician Scheme, following its limited rollout in six venues this weekend, expands nationwide June 6th. Originally screened at Cannes earlier this month, Benicio del Toro and Mia Threapleton headline the the black comedy. Per usual with Mr. Anderson’s tales, the supporting cast is massive and includes Michael Cera, Riz Ahmed, Tom Hanks, Bryan Cranston, Mathieu Amalric, Richard Ayoade, Jeffrey Wright, Scarlett Johansson, Benedict Cumberbatch, Hope Davis, Rupert Friend, Bill Murray, Charlotte Gainsbourg, Willem Dafoe, and F. Murray Abraham.
Phoenician reviews are decent though not as effusive as those that greeted other works from the auteur. Rotten Tomatoes is at 77% with a 71 Metacritic. Anderson is certainly one of those filmmakers with a devoted following. His pictures aren’t going to make $100 million+, but they have their niche.
Predecessor Asteroid City from summer 2023 made $9 million for its expansion. I see no reason why Scheme wouldn’t gather about the same.
The Phoenician Scheme opening weekend prediction: $8.7 million
Wes Anderson is back at Cannes with The Phoenician Scheme, his latest comedy sporting a gigantic cast opening stateside June 6th. Benicio del Toro and Mia Threapleton have the most significant roles with an ensemble also (deep breath) including Michael Cera, Riz Ahmed, Tom Hanks, Bryan Cranston, Mathieu Amalric, Richard Ayoade, Jeffrey Wright, Scarlett Johansson, Benedict Cumberbatch, Rupert Friend, Hope Davis, Bill Murray, Charlotte Gainsbourg, and Willem Dafoe.
We are more than a decade removed from The Grand Budapest Hotel which turned out to be Anderson’s most significant awards contender yet (nine Oscar nods with victories in Costume Design, Makeup & Hairstyling, Original Score, and Production Design). His two Phoenician predecessors generated minimal attention in their seasons with The French Dispatch up for Score at the Globes and Asteroid City blanked from the Academy and at the Globes.
Phoenician‘s reaction in France indicates this will follow in the footsteps of those recent titles and not Hotel. The Rotten Tomatoes rating is 79% with Metacritic at 74. Even with the typical praise for Production Design and Score, I doubt this shows up anywhere at the Oscars and that includes the new Casting category. Depending on competition, del Toro and Threapleton (daughter of Kate Winslet) could be threats for noms in the Musical/Comedy races in their respective acting derbies. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
While animated titles dealing with spiders or herons are the likeliest Best Animated Feature Oscar winner this Sunday, Kung Fu Panda 4 hopes to take the box office this weekend. DreamWorks Animation’s martial arts comedy comes from director Mike Mitchell with Jack Black reprising his role as Po. Dustin Hoffman, Awkwafina, Viola Davis, James Hong, Bryan Cranston, Ian McShane, Ke Huy Quan, Lori Tan Chinn, and Ronny Chieng also provide voiceover work.
The first pair of Panda pics in 2008 and 2011 both received Animated Feature nods from the Academy, losing respectively to Wall-E and Rango. The third edition in 2016 did not manage to make the quintet despite matching the original’s 87% RT score (the second one hit 81%). No. 4 currently sits at 78%. If competition is weak, perhaps this series could return to contention. I wouldn’t count on it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
DreamWorks Animation hopes to reverse diminishing returns for its comedic martial arts franchise when Kung Fu Panda 4 arrives in theaters March 8th. Mike Mitchell, maker of such genre fare including Shrek Forever After and Trolls, directs. Jack Black is back voicing the title character alongside returnees Dustin Hoffman, James Hong, Bryan Cranston, and Ian McShane. Newcomers include Awkwafina, Ke Huy Quan, Ronny Chieng, Lori Tan Chinn, and Viola Davis.
In the summer of 2008, the first Panda sighting kicked off with $60 million and an eventual $215 million domestic haul. Three summers later, the second edition also made $60 million. However, that was with an extra day of grosses due to the Memorial Day holiday. Its lesser total was $165 million. By January 2016, Kung Fu Panda 3 premiered at $41 million and then $143 million overall.
The eight year layoff is easily the longest between entries. Absence could make the heart grow fonder or at least enough to match its predecessor’s beginning. Yet I suspect mid to high 30s is more likely.
Kung Fu Panda 4 opening weekend prediction: $38.1 million
Kingsman maker Matthew Vaughn appears to be in his comfort zone with Argylle, out February 2nd. The spy action comedy comes with a reported $200 million budget and hopes to spawn a trilogy. Henry Cavill, Bryce Dallas Howard, Sam Rockwell, Bryan Cranston, Catherine O’Hara, Dua Lipa, Ariana DeBose, John Cena, and Samuel L. Jackson fill out the eclectic cast. There’s even a Taylor Swift connection (sort of). Swifties speculated that the film’s author character (played by Howard) might in fact be the superstar/Chiefs fan, but Vaughn debunked the theory. Anytime Swift is in the mix, that means your movie is getting extra attention.
Argylle could also be helped by the dead zone that is the current box office landscape. There’s simply not much out there and this star-studded affair will be the highest profile option.
That said, I don’t think this will exceed expectations. Current forecasts have this in the high teens to low 20s and I think that sounds right. This means Argylle may need to rely on overseas grosses if it wants that trilogy.
Wes Anderson’s mix of melancholia and quirky humor is abundant in Asteroid City with its massive cast and dueling aspect ratios. This is a stunning looking feature focused on the behind the scenes made for TV airing of a play (shot in black & white). The play itself is presented via Technicolor hues in a Western desert setting in the 1950s. Whether it’s the characters they’re playing or the actors and directors themselves, they exist in Anderson’s wheelhouse of themes. From dealing with grief to unlikely romances and coming-of-age under unique circumstances, any filmmaker would be rightly accused of ripping off Anderson if this weren’t made by him. Whether it works will depend on how into him you are. I’m not a die-hard though his signature style popped for me in The Royal Tenenbaums, The Grand Budapest Hotel, and more. It can also leave me cold. That happened in portions of his previous effort The French Dispatch while other segments were more successful. This City was lukewarm.
The play we see (which takes up the bulk of screen time) happens in the sleepy title dwelling awoken by a youth astronomy convention. One of the top outcasts competing is Woodrow (Jake Ryan), the movie’s Max Fischer from Rushmore but nicer. His father is war photojournalist Augie and he’s played by Jason Schwartzman, who played Max in Anderson’s acclaimed dramedy from 1998. He’s recently widowed and (in a gag that works throughout) hasn’t figured out how to tell his son and three young daughters who might be witches that mom has passed. Tom Hanks is his wealthy father-in-law who lives on a golf course and reluctantly is teeing up accommodations for the family.
Another competitor is Dinah, daughter of Midge (Scarlett Johansson), a sullen movie star who assumes her fate will be similar to ingenues like Marilyn Monroe. She engages in a fireworks free tryst with Augie while Woodrow develops a crush on Dinah.
We’ve seen plenty of all-star casts in his oeuvre, but Anderson outdoes himself in Asteroid City. From Steve Carell’s motel manager to Matt Dillon’s auto mechanic or Tilda Swinton’s scientist and Rupert Friend’s singing cowboy who’s sweet on Maya Hawke’s teacher, the cast is a loaded group. Some are practically blink and you’ll miss them appearances – hey there’s Jeff Goldblum! And Hong Chau! Jeffrey Wright, who gave a segment stealing performance in The French Dispatch, has a highlight scene as a General judging the convention.
Without going into spoiler territory, the plot eventually employs sci-fi elements in an idiosyncratic Wes way. While this is happening, we get monochrome interludes with Bryan Cranston’s host introducing and commenting on the teleplay, Edward Norton as its writer, and Adrien Brody as the randy director. These are great performers, but the best moments come in Asteroid City. The backstage business of meeting the performers counterparts didn’t have a deep impact with me.
Neither did Asteroid City as a whole. Schwartzman and Johansson (who really sells her considerable star magnetism) have a couple memorable scenes of courtship. The technical work, particularly the production design, is impeccable. Yet the emotional and comedic payoff that has worked in Tenenbaums and beyond feels more remote in this bright wasteland.
After premiering to mixed reactions at the Cannes Film Festival last month, Wes Anderson’s Asteroid City expands nationwide on June 23rd. The auteur’s distinctive mix of dry humor and drama looks to be in high supply and same goes for his impressive sprawling cast. This time around it includes plenty of Anderson regulars and some newbies. The list boasts Jason Schwartzman, Scarlett Johansson, Tom Hanks, Jeffrey Wright, Tilda Swinton, Bryan Cranston, Edward Norton, Adrien Brody, Liev Schreiber, Hope Davis, Steve Park, Rupert Friend, Maya Hawke, Steve Carell, Matt Dillon, Hong Chau, Willem Dafoe, Margot Robbie, Tony Revolori, and Jeff Goldblum.
With a 74% Rotten Tomatoes rating, this is far from the peak of critical acclaim for the filmmaker. I doubt this approaches the $59 million domestic gross that 2014’s The Grand Budapest Hotel made in 2014 (his best earner). Yet this should eclipse predecessor The French Dispatch from October 2021. It took in just $16 million (this was also during theatrical COVID challenges).
City rolls out June 16th in six venues. I imagine it’ll have one of the biggest per theater averages of 2023. That doesn’t necessarily translate to impressive numbers when it expands between the coasts a week later. I’m skeptical that it manages $10 million.
Asteroid City opening weekend prediction: $7.6 million