Mean Girls, out tomorrow, is based on the Broadway musical based on a movie that’s originally based on a book. In that sense, it’s much like current Oscar contender The Color Purple. Samantha Jayne and Arturo Perez Jr. make their directorial debut with Tina Fey returning to costar and write the screenplay. The cast includes Angourie Rice, Reneé Rapp, Auli’i Cravalho, Christopher Briney, Jenna Fischer, Busy Philips, Tim Meadows, Jon Hamm, and Ashley Park.
The 2004 pic was a box office and critical success (84% RT) that has endured over the past two decades. Reviews for this aren’t as strong, but they’re decent at 71% on the Tomato meter.
Original Song is the only race where this stands any chance at Academy recognition. I doubt the memory of this version will endure long enough for voters to remember them. Since it’s a musical, the Globes could honor it in Musical/Comedy, but the same logic applies there. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Arriving nearly 20 years after its source material was a critical and commercial success, Mean Girls looks to fetch profitable results for Paramount when it debuts January 12th. The musical comedy is based on the Broadway show that resulted from the 2004 film. Tina Fey writes the screenplay (as she did for both preceding projects) and reprises her role from the original (alongside Principal Tim Meadows). New cast members include Angourie Rice, Reneé Rapp, Auli’i Cravalho, Christopher Briney, Jenna Fischer, Bijou Philipps, Jon Hamm, and Ashley Park. Samantha Jayne and Arturo Perez Jr. are behind the camera for their directorial debuts.
In the spring of 2004, Mean Girls grossed an impressive $86 million domestically and $130 million total worldwide. Its popularity has endured in the following two decades. OG MG’s Lindsay Lohan, Amanda Seyfried, and Lacey Chabert (minus Rachel McAdams) recently reunited for a Walmart ad. Fans of that version and more (especially an anticipated large female audience) should turn out. Once slated for a Paramount+ bow, the studio reportedly changed their minds after encouraging screenings.
That should prove to be a wise move. Rolling out over the long MLK weekend, Girls is anticipated to generate a four-day start in at least the mid to possibly high 20s. I think it will that range is about right.
Mean Girls opening weekend prediction: $27.6 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
Nearly half a century ago, Sidney Lumet’s cinematic adaptation of Agatha Christie’s Murder on the Orient Express tracked down six nominations. This included a Supporting Actress victory for Ingrid Bergman.
Kenneth Branagh’s 2017 version of the mystery found decent box office success and a Production Design nom at Critics Choice. Academy voters didn’t honor it anywhere and the same holds true for follow-up Death on the Nile from last year.
The third feature in the series is A Haunting in Venice (out September 15th), based on Christie’s Hallowe’en Party. Kyle Allen, Camille Cottin, Jamie Dornan, Tina Fey, Jude Hill, Ali Khan, Emma Laird, Kelly Reilly, Riccardo Scamarcio, Michelle Yeoh, and Branagh’s Hercule Poirot make up the cast. With more horror elements than the previous pics, it hopes to scare up decent business. With the review embargo lifted, it holds the best Rotten Tomatoes score among the trio. Orient‘s is 61%, Nile is similar with 62%, and Haunting is posting 81% at this early stage (of course it could go down when more reaction comes in).
That said, Production Design and Costume Design are really the only feasible inclusions. I deduce the Academy will look to others for their final five. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Kenneth Branagh’s grandly mustachioed master sleuth Hercule Poirot is back in cinemas on September 15th with A Haunting in Venice. Based on Agatha Christie’s 1969 work Hallowe’en Party, this is the third mystery in the franchise that began with Branagh’s 2017 version of Murder on the Orient Express and continued last year with Death on the Nile. In addition to its director/star, the cast includes Kyle Allen, Camille Cottin, Jamie Dornan, Tina Fey, Jude Hill, Ali Khan, Emma Laird, Kelly Reilly, Riccardo Scamarcio, and current Best Actress winner Michelle Yeoh.
The first trailer for Haunting definitely leaned on the horror elements of its story and not the fact that it’s a continuation of the Express and Nile series. That’s not surprising when you consider that Nile came in well under its predecessor. While the Orient remake made $28 million out of the gate and $102 million overall domestically, the oft delayed Nile only earned $12.9 million for its start and $45 million overall a year and a half ago.
That horror angle might be a smart one for 20th Century Studios, but genre fans might be satiated with The Nun II (out the weekend prior). I do think this manages to top Death though not by much.
A Haunting in Venice opening weekend prediction: $14.6 million
At one point in Maggie Moore(s), New Mexico police chief Sanders (Jon Hamm) tells his blunt deputy Reddy (Nick Mohammed) that he has no concept of when it’s OK to tell a joke. You could say the same with Paul Bernbaum’s screenplay. This black comedy attempts to pull off incorporating pedophilia and hate crimes as its murder mystery plays out. It doesn’t work in this aimless grim pic. Plus it’s just not very funny.
Maggie Moore (Louisa Krause) works at a diner while sleazy husband Jay (Micah Stock) is the franchisor of a sandwich shop where he buys rancid meat on the black market. When she threatens to expose his various shady business dealings, she turns up dead. A gigantic deaf hitman named Kosco (Happy Anderson) is responsible. In this small town setting, there’s another Maggie Moore (Mary Holland) and perhaps her murder will throw Hamm’s chief from the fast food potential felon.
This all goes down early in the picture and most of Moore(s) is Sanders and his partner catching up with what we already know. This unfortunate structure zaps it of any suspense and when the humor falters (which is most of the time), the mold gathers quickly.
You might think a 30 Rock reunion of Hamm and Tina Fey courting each other could save it. She plays Jay’s nosy and self-conscious neighbor who catches the lawman’s eye. Despite their easy chemistry that results in a handful of laughs, it can’t rescue the second feature length effort from the lead’s Mad Men costar John Slattery.
The aforementioned taboo subjects indicate that its makers want to bring an edge that is never earned. None of the relationships feel authentic in a script where the players are quirky without quality development. The subs aren’t the only item that are substandard.
Awards watching season kicks into (later than usual) gear this Sunday with the 78th Annual Golden Globes hosted by Tina Fey and Amy Poehler! While I have not spent time doing weekly posts on this ceremony like I do with the Oscars, it’s certainly a potential sign of things to come from the Academy (and sometimes not so much).
The Hollywood Foreign Press Association is a notoriously tricky bunch to predict as they often call up out of nowhere nominees in their major categories. This year is no exception and that will be discussed below. The pandemic uncertainty that was 2020 and some races that truly feel wild open gives us some real drama as to the pictures and actors who will win on Sunday.
Simply put, I’ll feel good if I get half my predictions right and that’s a lower bar than usual. Let’s walk through each category with my estimated victor and runner-up, shall we?
Best Motion Picture (Drama)
Nominees: The Father, Mank, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Despite a better than anticipated showing for Promising Young Woman, this is likely a showdown between Nomadland and Trial (as I suspect it will be for the Oscars). Quite frankly, this is a tough call and basically a coin flip. However, I lean ever so slightly with HFPA going with the more traditional pick and that means Trial.
Predicted Winner: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Runner-Up: Nomadland
Best Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy)
Nominees: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Hamilton, Music, Palm Springs, The Prom
The inclusion of Sia’s critically drubbed Music stands as one of the more bizarre nods in recent Globes history and that’s saying a lot. Palm Springs certainly has its fervent fans while The Prom once seemed like a potential winner until its mixed reviews. Meryl Streep’s exclusion in the Actress field for it says something as well. So it’s Borat vs. Hamilton in my view. 14 years ago, the original Borat lost out to Dreamgirls. Certainly the overall pedigree and acclaim for Hamilton makes it a possibility, but the attention garnered by Sacha Baron Cohen’s sequel might be too hard to resist.
Predicted Winner: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Runner-Up: Hamilton
Best Director
Nominees: Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman), David Fincher (Mank), Regina King (One Night in Miami), Aaron Sorkin (The Trial of the Chicago 7), Chloe Zhao (Nomadland)
Even with my Trial pick in Picture, Chloe Zhao has emerged as a heavy favorite for the duration of awards season and she has the critics trophies already to prove it. Fincher is probably more of a threat to upset than Sorkin here, but Zhao is one of the safer bets of the night.
Predicted Winner: Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
Runner-Up: David Fincher, Mank
Best Actress (Drama)
Nominees: Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday), Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman), Frances McDormand (Nomadland), Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)
It’s Davis vs. McDormand vs. Mulligan as I see it and there’s a case to be made for all three. That said, I already mentioned that Promising was a major winner on nomination morning as it achieved nods everywhere it really could have been expected to. I feel it’ll win somewhere and this is the most probable. Had Rainey got a Picture nod, I would probably list Davis as the runner-up, but I’ll go with McDormand instead.
Predicted Winner: Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Runner-Up: Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Best Actor (Drama)
Nominees: Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal), Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Anthony Hopkins (The Father), Gary Oldman (Mank), Tahar Rahim (The Mauritanian)
Sunday night could very well be the start of Boseman sweeping his way through the season. I do have a nagging feeling that Hopkins is going to win either here or at SAG. It would not be a shock at all for that to occur yet I’ll stick with Boseman.
Predicted Winner: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Runner-Up: Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Best Actress (Musical/Comedy)
Nominees: Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm), Kate Hudson (Music), Michelle Pfeiffer (French Exit), Rosamund Pike (I Care a Lot), Anya Taylor-Joy (Emma)
Expect Taylor-Joy to win on Sunday night, but not here. Instead she appears bound to get some hardware on the TV side for the heralded Queen’s Gambit. Like the picture itself, Hudson’s nomination was totally unforeseen. Bakalova was the breakout star of Borat. She’s being campaigned for in Supporting Actress at the Oscars, but the HFPA seems destined to honor her. Pfeiffer and Pike are moderate threats and I’ll give the runner-up edge to the former.
Predicted Winner: Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Runner-Up: Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit
Best Actor (Musical/Comedy)
Nominees: Sacha Baron Cohen (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm), James Corden (The Prom), Lin-Manuel Miranda (Hamilton), Dev Patel (The Personal History of David Copperfield), Andy Samberg (Palm Springs)
Let’s face it: the Golden Globes this year has an excellent chance at turning into the Sacha Baron Cohen Show. He won this race for the first Borat and he’s the odds-on favorite to make it two for two. Miranda poses the only real threat in my opinion.
Nominees: Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy), Olivia Colman (The Father), Jodie Foster (The Mauritanian), Amanda Seyfried (Mank), Helena Zengel (News of the World)
For Foster and Zengel, it’s an honor to be nominated. As for the other three, this feels like a genuine three performer race in which I could easily foresee Close, Colman, or Seyfried’s name being called. I’m calling this (with zero confidence) for Seyfried as I think HFPA could go with the relative newcomer over Close and Colman (who have each won three Globes).
Predicted Winner: Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Runner-Up: Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (just over Colman)
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7), Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah), Jared Leto (The Little Things), Bill Murray (On the Rocks), Leslie Odom, Jr. (One Night in Miami)
Another really tough one. It would be right up HFPA’s alley to give Leto the surprise win. And Kaluuya and Odom Jr. are strong possibilities. I don’t feel great about saying Sacha will have this big of a night, but I kinda feel that’s the way this goes. Confidence level? Zilch.
Predicted Winner: Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Runner-Up: Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Best Screenplay
Nominees: The Father, Mank, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, The Trial of the Chicago 7
This is an additional race where voters could choose to honor Promising Young Woman, but Trial is the frontrunner and I’m not picking against it.
Predicted Winner: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Runner-Up: Promising Young Woman
Best Animated Feature Film
Nominees: The Croods: A New Age, Onward, Over the Moon, Soul, Wolfwalkers
Don’t be surprised if this is the same Oscar five with the same result. While Wolfwalkers is a critical darling, it’s risky to bet against Pixar and I won’t do so.
Predicted Winner: Soul
Runner-Up: Wolfwalkers
Best Foreign Language Film
Nominees: Another Round, La Llorona, The Life Ahead, Minari, Two of Us
The smart money is on Minari, which is expected to get a Best Picture nod from the Academy. However, I can’t help but point out that it picked up nominations nowhere else (including Actor, Supporting Actor, and Screenplay where it could have). That opens the door for Another Round which also has ardent supporters. I’m going for the slight upset.
Predicted Winner: Another Round
Runner-Up: Minari
Best Original Score
Nominees: Mank, The Midnight Sky, News of the World, Soul, Tenet
Another category that Oscar could match. And this may come down to Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross vs. themselves for Mank and Soul. I’ll give their Pixar work the edge.
Predicted Winner: Soul
Runner-Up: Mank
Best Original Song
Nominees: “Fight for You” (Judas and the Black Messiah), “Hear My Voice” (The Trial of the Chicago 7), “lo si (Seen)” (The Life Ahead), “Speak Now” (One Night in Miami), “Tigress & Tweed” (The United States vs. Billie Holiday)
Anything could happen here, but “Speak Now” is a trendy pick for the Oscar and HFPA could follow suit.
Predicted Winner: “Speak Now” (One Night in Miami)
Runner-Up: “lo si (Seen)” from The Life Ahead
That means I’m predicting the following number of wins for these pictures:
3 Wins
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, The Trial of the Chicago 7
2 Wins
Soul
1 Win
Another Round, Mank, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Nomadland, One Night in Miami, Promising Young Woman
And there you have it! My picks for the Sacha Baron… err, Golden Globes! Let’s see how it shakes out and I’ll have a post up Sunday night with my thoughts about the show and how I performed….
Disney/Pixar’s second 2020 release Soul has long been seen as their most viable Oscar contender over this spring’s Onward. Today’s buzz after it held the first screening at the London Film Festival confirms that. The jazz infused tale from Pete Docter and Kemp Powers is being called two familiar adjectives in the studio’s lexicon – heartfelt and crowd pleasing. Soul, after experiencing delays due to the COVID pandemic, is slated for a Disney+ debut on Christmas Day.
Featuring the voices of Jamie Foxx, Tina Fey, Questlove, Phylicia Rashad, Daveed Diggs, and Angela Bassett, several reviews are already claiming it’s in the upper echelon of Pixar pics. Docter is no stranger to Academy love. All three of his directorial efforts – Monsters Inc., Up, Inside Out – were nominated for Best Animated Feature. The latter two emerged victorious and Up is one of three animated flicks to achieve a Best Picture nomination.
The question is not whether Soul will make the final cut in Animated Feature. It absolutely will and it’s absolutely the strong front runner to win. A better debate is whether this is the fourth animated effort to contend for the big prize. I don’t believe that’s automatic. Inside Out also garnered sterling critical reaction in 2015 and fell short of that achievement. However, Soul has solidified its position as a legit hopeful.
Additionally, expect Best Sound and the Original Score by Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross to be in the mix. Bottom line: Soul helped it cause to play beyond Animated Feature. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
It’s time for another list on this here blog of mine and Saturday Night Live has been on the mind lately. With The King of Staten Island garnering solid reviews and serving as a launching pad for the film career of current cast member Pete Davidson, I’ve decided to compile my own personal list of top 25 performances from the 45 years of SNL alumni.
And this is sure to be a list where many moviegoers would have their own choices that do not reflect my own. Obviously SNL has a rich history of performers that have made the transition to the big screen and there are lots of notable comedic (and some dramatic) highlights.
A couple of notes before we start with numbers 25-21:
There are couple well-known actors that I chose to leave on the cutting room floor due to their very brief tenures on the show. Ben Stiller was a cast member for only 4 episodes and Laurie Metcalf was a not ready for prime time player for exactly 1 show. That didn’t seem like enough to include them. In short, if you lasted a season or more on SNL, you are eligible.
This list is undeniably dominated by men. That’s just a fact. On the other hand, if I did a list that included TV (which I may after this), you would certainly see a more substantial presence of former female performers. Think Tina Fey, Amy Poehler, Julia Louis-Dreyfus, and their acclaimed small screen work.
We have a couple of cinematic legends like Eddie Murphy and Bill Murray and I could have chosen plenty of their roles for inclusion. I tried to limit that, but you will see them make quite an impact in the top 25.
And with that, let’s get to the list!
25. Jan Hooks, Pee Wee’s Big Adventure (1985)
OK, maybe this is cheating a little bit since Ms. Hooks (who was brilliant on SNL) gets about three minutes of screen time in Tim Burton’s team-up with Paul Reubens for his iconic character. Yet her work as the cheery tour guide with the southern drawl is so memorable that I couldn’t leave it off. Six words: “There’s no basement at the Alamo!”
24. Bill Hader, It Chapter Two (2019)
Hader has been one of the most versatile cast members in recent times and has had memorable film roles in Superbad and Trainwreck, among others. I include this horror sequel because he was the undeniable bright spot in an otherwise inferior sequel.
23. Will Forte, MacGruber (2010)
Count me in as one of the ardent defenders of this SNL spin-off featuring Forte doing a feature length version of his idiotic MacGyver like role. MacGruber was a box office flop upon release but has since turned into a deserved cult classic (with a rumored sequel happening).
22. Tina Fey, Mean Girls (2004)
Before her fantastic work on 30 Rock, Fey wrote this hit comedy that has spawned a massive following and a Broadway musical. Her work as a teacher here served as a springboard to an impressive TV and movie career.
21. Billy Crystal, When Harry Met Sally… (1989)
Crystal has certainly had his share of hits, but I’ll give the nod to his romantic leading man role opposite Meg Ryan in Rob Reiner’s blockbuster.
That does it for now, folks! I’ll continue the list with numbers 20-16 in short order…
The Cannes Film Festival, originally scheduled for May in the French Riviera, was canceled this year due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, an announcement today confirmed that the long running fest will exist in some form. And like everything in 2020… it’s a little confusing. A lineup announcement of 56 pictures was put out as being in the Cannes fold. However, these titles will premiere at various other events scheduled later in the year such as the Toronto and Telluride festivals, among others.
Awards watchers know that Cannes is a fertile breeding ground for Oscar hopefuls. Just last year, Bong Joon-Ho’s Parasite won top Cannes prize the Palme d’or and eventually won Best Picture at the Academy Awards. Some other titles (among many) that premiered at Cannes and got Oscar attention include Apocalypse Now, The Piano, Pulp Fiction, and The Pianist.
So what are some significant 2020 Cannes contenders that could vie for Oscar gold? I’ll give you a quintet and we start with Wes Anderson’s The French Dispatch. The latest effort from the acclaimed filmmaker is his live-action follow-up to 2014’s The Grand Budapest Hotel which nabbed a leading nine nominations at that year’s Oscars. The cast is filled with familiar faces and many Anderson regulars including Benicio del Toro, Adrien Brody, Tilda Swinton, Frances McDormand, Timothee Chalamet, Bill Murray, Owen Wilson, Edward Norton, Saoirse Ronan, Willem Dafoe, and Anjelica Huston. It is obviously high on the list for potential players throughout awards season.
Ronan also costars in Ammonite, a period drama from director Francis Lee. Her costar is Kate Winslet and between the two of them they have 11 Academy nominations. Expect plenty of chatter as to their viability in the performance races.
Steve McQueen is premiering not one, but two pictures with the Cannes label – Lovers Rock and Mangrove. The director saw his 2013 pic 12 Years a Slave awarded Best Picture. Both of his new titles focus on race relations in the United Kingdom.
Finally, Pixar is in the mix with Soul. Originally scheduled for summer, it was pushed back to November and is rightfully seen as a top tier contender in the Animated Feature derby. Featuring the voices of Jamie Foxx and Tina Fey, Soul is directed by Pete Docter. He’s responsible for two of the studio’s most acclaimed entries and Oscar winners – 2009’s Up and 2015’s Inside Out.
I would suspect that the 51 other Cannes selections could wind up in the mix as well (especially in the International Feature Film race). Time will tell, but the Cannes label will carry on in 2020 (albeit under unforeseen and unique circumstances).
Tina Fey headlines the war comedy Whiskey Tango Foxtrot, out next weekend and the 30 Rock star hopes to capitalize on the goodwill audiences gave with her Christmas time hit Sisters. Glenn Ficarra and John Requa, the directors of Crazy, Stupid, Love and Focus, are behind the camera with Margot Robbie, Martin Freeman, Billy Bob Thornton, and Alfred Molina amongst the supporting players.
The Afghanistan set pic could benefit with solid reviews (they’re not out yet). Even if Foxtrot receives them, it likely faces an uphill battle to open big out of the gate. Sisters started rather slow at $13.9 million, but eventually grossed nearly $90M domestically (it did open against something called Star Wars: The Force Awakens, to be fair). However, that film had Fey’s partner in hilarity Amy Poehler alongside her.
I believe this should manage to open higher than Fey’s Admission, which flunked out with a $6.1M opening three years ago. Whether it reaches double digits is a legit question and I’ll predict it falls a bit under that.
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot opening weekend prediction: $8.4 million
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