November 13-15 Box Office Predictions

After nearly a decade away from headlining roles, Johnny Depp hopes to capture the top spot at the box office with the holiday themed Ebenezer. We also have David Leitch’s heist flick How to Rob a Bank hoping to steal away some bucks. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

My estimate has Ebenezer hitting its tracking, but not exceeding expectations at just over $20 million. That should certainly be enough to give Depp his first #1 title since 2018’s Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald. Ti West’s take on A Christmas Carol will hope for small declines over the holidays.

Second place could be a battle between the second frames of Godzilla Minus Zero and The Cat in the Hat. The latter should see a lower sophomore frame decline than Zero which opened in line with expectations (more on that below). I’ll still say the green monster manages the runner-up position with Cat in third.

I’m not expecting How to Rob a Bank to reach $10 million and my meager prediction has it in fourth place for a subpar showing.

The top five might be rounded out by You Can See Everything as I anticipate Drummer Boy and Ramayana: Part 1 will fall further in their second outings that the acclaimed doc will in its fifth.

Another newcomer hitting multiplexes is the mid 19th-century set horror title Victorian Psycho. I skipped doing an individual post but I’ll say it makes $3 million.

Here’s how I have it shaking out:

1. Ebenezer

Predicted Gross: $21.3 million

2. Godzilla Minus Zero

Predicted Gross: $13.2 million

3. The Cat in the Hat

Predicted Gross: $12 million

4. How to Rob a Bank

Predicted Gross: $6.8 million

5. You Can See Everything

Predicted Gross: $6 million

Box Office Results (November 6-8)

Godzilla Minus Zero, the sequel to 2023’s critically heralded Godzilla Minus One, nearly tripled the opening gross of that predecessor with $30.5 million. That’s just under my $32 million projection as the kaiju tale should keep the franchise rolling along for Toho.

The animated rendering of Dr. Seuss’s The Cat in the Hat was second with $20 million, falling a tad below my $22.5 million forecast. Featuring Bill Hader voicing the title role, Warner Bros seeks minimal percentage drops as this plays over Thanksgiving and beyond.

I didn’t give near enough credit to Drummer Boy from Angel Studios. The musical drama, set during the Revolutionary War, was a surprise third at $9.4 million. I incorrectly had it outside of my top five and didn’t even do a prediction post for it.

Hindi-language epic Ramayana: Part 1 completed a top four filled with newbies, whipping up $8.9 million over the traditional weekend and $12.4 million since its Thursday bow. That’s a solid result though I had it managing more with respective estimates of $11.9 million and $17.1 million.

Fifth place went to You Can See Everything with $8.4 million compared to my $7.3 million call. The doc grew to $79 million after four weeks.

Wildwood was sixth with $7.2 million (I said $6 million) as the Laika fantasy fell only 20% in weekend #3 for a tally of $40 million.

Clayface took seventh with $6.7 million, besting my $5.4 million guesstimate. The DC Universe body horror pic stands at $56 million after three weeks.

Finally, Martin McDonagh’s Oscar contender Wild Horse Nine was eighth with $5.9 million, galloping past my $3.9 million forecast. It’ll look for awards buzz to keep it afloat.

And that’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions: The Cat in the Hat

Based on the Dr. Seuss 1957 children’s book, Warner Bros is hoping family audiences turn out for The Cat in the Hat this weekend. The animated adaptation arrives 23 years after Mike Myers starred in the critically ballyhooed live-action take. This time around, Bill Hader voices the title character. Other cast members include Matt Berry, Quinta Brunson, Xochitl Gomez, Giancarlo Esposito, and America Ferrera. Alessandro Carloni and Erica Rivinoja direct.

There are plenty of titles vying for attention in Best Animated Feature including Wildwood, Toy Story 5, Ray Gunn, Forgotten Island, Iron Boy, Tangles, Hoppers, and Coyote vs. Acme. Sporting a subpar 47 on Metacritic, any thought of including Cat among those contenders should give you serious pause. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

November 6-8 Box Office Predictions

After October closed out with an expected whimper, four movies hope to kickstart a busy November at multiplexes. Toho sequel Godzilla Minus Zero, animated Dr. Seuss adaptation The Cat in the Hat, Indian action fantasy Ramayana: Part 1, and Martin McDonagh’s black comedy Wild Horse Nine all debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:

There could be a battle for #1, but in the matchup of Godzilla vs. Hat, I’m giving the giant lizard the advantage. Predecessor Godzilla Minus One from 2023 debuted to $11 million. However, its reputation has grown and anticipation for the follow-up might have it tripling that start in the mid 30s.

The Cat in the Hat hopes to play well over the holiday season. I wouldn’t be shocked if my estimate is a tad high though I am giving it the benefit of the doubt with a premiere just over $30 million.

The biggest question mark is Ramayana: Part 1. Pre-sales are encouraging for the highly priced tagged epic. It opens on Thursday and that should contribute to a front-loaded total. I think it gets past $10 million from Friday to Sunday for a third place showing.

As for Wild Horse Nine, it may only get to lower single digits on around 1000 screens. It’ll hope for awards buzz to keep it in venues moving forward. My $3.9 million figure puts it outside the top five.

Holdover and current champ You Can See Everything should drop to fourth. Wildwood is likely to experience a smaller dip than Clayface and allow the former to be fifth. Here’s how I see it shaking out:

1. Godzilla Minus Zero

Predicted Gross: $32 million

2. The Cat in the Hat

Predicted Gross: $22.5 million

3. Ramayana: Part 1

Predicted Gross: $11.9 million (Friday to Sunday); $17.1 million (Thursday to Sunday)

4. You Can See Everything

Predicted Gross: $7.3 million

5. Wildwood

Predicted Gross: $6 million

6. Clayface

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million

Box Office Results (October 30-November 1)

In a Halloween frame where no new titles entered the wide release marketplace, buzzy documentary You Can See Everything vaulted to first after two weeks in second. A24’s Oscar contender took in $11.4 million, below my $12.9 million prediction for a three-week total of $64 million. It is doing numbers that the genre doesn’t do.

Clayface dropped to second with $11 million, under my $13.5 million projection. The DC Universe body horror flick has made $44 million after two weeks. That’s not bad considering the reported $40 million budget.

Laika Animation’s Wildwood eased only 27% in its sophomore outing with $8.9 million, a tad more than my $8 million take. The critically acclaimed stop-motion effort has $27 million in its coffers.

Wicker with Olivia Colman also held impressively with $4.3 million in weekend #2. I was close at $4 million as the ribald comedy has made $13 million.

Street Fighter rounded out the top five with $3.6 million (I said $4 million). The video game adaptation has $53 million after three weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

The Cat in the Hat Box Office Prediction

Arriving in theaters nearly 70 years after its source material hit bookshelves, The Cat in the Hat opens November 6th. The animated take on the Dr. Seuss classic has Bill Hader voicing the title character. Other behind the mic talent includes Matt Berry, Quinta Brunson, Xochitl Gomez, Giancarlo Esposito, and America Ferrera. Erica Rivinoja and Alessandro Carloni direct.

The Warner Bros animation project comes at a time when the studio could use a solid performer after a year filled with duds. Eight years ago, Illumination Entertainment put out an animated version of The Grinch which made off with $67 million out of the gate. In 2003, a live-action version of Cat with Mike Myers did not meet expectations with poor reviews and middling box office. The $38 million debut was front-loaded with a $101 million eventual domestic take. This version may earn right around that figure with hopes that its word-of-mouth and eventual staying power is stronger. I’m going to put it quite a bit lower. That could mean decent subsequent weekends as the holidays approach though it’s unlikely to post anywhere near Grinch level numbers.

The Cat in the Hat opening weekend prediction: $22.5 million

For my Godzilla Minus Zero prediction, click here:

For my Ramayana: Part 1 prediction, click here:

For my Wild Horse Nine prediction, click here:

The Top 50 SNL Cast Members of All Time: Number 3 – Kristen Wiig

Kristen Wiig’s tenure on SNL was so fruitful that she got a most epic sendoff when she departed in 2012. It included getting serenaded by host Mick Jagger and a slow dance with creator Lorne Michaels. The Groundlings alumni’s seven seasons featured some wonderful impressions, but the volume of hilarious original characters is what made her stand out.

A lot of them were bizarre in a glorious way. The Target Lady and the constantly bitter Aunt Linda. Her Kat to Fred Amisen’s Garth, always inventing songs at the Weekend Update desk. Old-time screen siren Mindy Grayson and her inappropriate appearances on Secret Password. The sexy until she’s not Shana and Sue, who can’t help but ruin any event when a surprise is occurring.

Then there’s practically indescribable creations like Gilly and especially Dooneese along with her sisters on The Lawrence Welk Show. I could go on and on (her celebrity reporter alongside Bill Hader or The Californians) and it’s a sign of how impactful Wiig’s time was. And, yes, there are impersonations that were fantastic like Kathie Lee Gifford, Greta Van Susteren, Suze Orman, Ann-Margret and Liza Minnelli. #2 will be up soon!

Kristen Wiig

Years on the Show: 2005-12

The Top 50 SNL Cast Members of All Time: Number 19 – Fred Armisen

Before co-creating another iconic sketch comedy show with Portandia and contributing to the occasionally brilliant Documentary Now! alongside Bill Hader, Fred Armisen was hitting home runs on Saturday Night Live.

His background in music (he would eventually be the bandleader on Late Night with Seth Meyers) provided some SNL highlights. There’s Garth and Kat, a musical duo with Kristin Wiig where incomprehensible tunes are made up on the spot at the Update desk. We have a clever Prince impersonation alongside Maya Rudolph’s Beyoncé.

Other impressions include President Obama, Joy Behar, and a hilariously inappropriate take on former New York Governor David Paterson. Vanessa Bayer and Armisen spun comedic gold into being shy friends with dictators. My personal favorite Armisen creation might be the condescending and sensitive to the touch Regine, who creeped out Jason Sudeikis’s friends at a house gathering. Or my favorite might be his Queen Elizabeth II. There’s a lot to choose from when considering Armisen’s arsenal of material. #18 will be up soon!

Fred Armisen

Years on the Show: 2002-13

The Top 50 SNL Cast Members of All Time: Number 31 – Seth Meyers

For 13 years, Seth Meyers served different roles on Saturday Night Live. During the first five, he was a regular featured player and while solid, he would not have made this list if not for his ascension to the Weekend Update chair in 2006 alongside Amy Poehler. They’re “Really!?!” segments were a particular highlight. Meyers would get the Update segment to himself beginning 2008. That was a year in which, as head writer, he was penning Tina Fey’s iconic bits as VP candidate Sarah Palin. He would go onto become the apple of legendary Stefon’s idea by way of Bill Hader’s legendary creation.

His Update duties (with a brief late period where Cecily Strong joined as coanchor) and SNL tenure lasted until 2014 when Meyers left to take over NBC’s 12:30pm Late Night franchise. He would succeed two other notable show vets in writer Conan O’Brien and cast member Jimmy Fallon. Like those two, Meyers is in among the pantheon of SNL’s finest. #30 will be up soon!

Seth Meyers

Years on the Show: 2001-14

The Top 50 SNL Cast Members of All Time: Number 36 – Bobby Moynihan

Bobby Moynihan is one of those SNL performers that I feel never gets proper due for his contributions to the show. He comes in at #36 on my top 50 cast members list. Moynihan spent nine seasons creating unique characters and side splitting impressions.

The most well-known is Drunk Uncle on the Weekend Update segments where his rants were a consistent highlight. Some other faves of mine include Vinny Vedecci Jr., son of Bill Hader’s Italian talk show host who asked clueless questions to celebrities and inevitably burst into tears. There’s also Riblet, who did Update bits as Michael Che’s old high school buddy and second-hand news reporter Anthony Crispino. His impressions of Snooki from Jersey Shore and Mindy Cohn from The Facts of Life also warrant mentions. #35 will be up soon!

Bobby Moynihan

Years on the Show: 2008-17

Inside Out 2 Box Office Prediction

Disney/Pixar hope for a reversal of recent fortunes when Inside Out 2 arrives in theaters June 14th. A sequel to the 2015 megahit Animated Feature Oscar winner, Kelsey Mann takes over directorial duties from Pete Docter. Returning voices include Amy Poehler, Phyllis Smith, Lewis Black, Diane Lane, and Kyle MacLachlan. Replacing Bill Hader from the original is Tony Hale while Liza Lapira, Maya Hawke, Ayo Edebiri, Adéle Exarchopoulos, Paul Walter Hauser, and Kensington Tallman as the now teenage Riley join the cast.

Nine summers ago, the original made $90 million in its premiere frame with an eventual domestic tally of $356 million. That stands as the fifth largest opening of all time for Pixar and the sixth heftiest overall final take.

As mentioned, the studio has dealt with its own emotional rollercoasters as of late. 2022’s Lightyear was a high profile flop with a lowly (for Pixar) $118 million total. Last summer, Elemental fared better with $154 million while that’s still a ways from their typical numbers.

This sequel should brighten their emotions. Part 1 is well-regarded and family audiences should be primed for a second helping. Estimates have this making around what the predecessor accomplished out of the gate. It might manage slightly more. Each Toy Story, for instance, improved with the first weekend figures. Incredibles 2 and Finding Dory dwarfed the starts of their precursors.

I’ll go glass half full and say this just manages to outdo the original while not reaching nine digits in its first three days.

Inside Out 2 opening weekend prediction: $92.4 million