The Cannes Film Festival can quickly confirm or deny the awards prospects for its screeners. Just today, Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon (as expected) solidified its standing as a player in multiple races including the big one. On other hand, anyone thinking that Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny had a Top Gun: Maverick level shot at breaking into Oscar territory were disabused of that notion upon its unveiling.
Then there’s cases where it’s murkier and May December from Todd Haynes falls into that category. The word campy is being used more than any other I’ve seen in this tale of a Hollywood actress (Natalie Portman) shadowing Julianne Moore. She plays a tabloid star known for bedding a 13-year-old who’s now her adult husband (Charles Melton).
Haynes has yet to see any of his pictures, including the acclaimed Far From Heaven, I’m Not There, and Carol, contend for Best Picture. He has, on the other hand, seen his performers get nominated. Moore was up in lead for Heaven while Cate Blanchett received a Supporting Actress mention for There. For Carol, Blanchett was nominated again (this time for Actress) while Rooney Mara made the cut in Supporting Actress.
With 90% on Rotten Tomatoes at press time, December is receiving some glowing reviews mixed with more subdued appreciation. Whatever distributor picks it up (which I’m sure is imminent) is bound to mount a campaign. Its chances in the acting derbies are probably higher than Picture or Director (though I wouldn’t count out Samy Burch’s original screenplay).
Category placement will be fascinating to watch. From what I’ve read, Portman and Moore appear to be co-leads. That doesn’t mean they won’t be split and one believable scenario is Portman in lead with Moore in supporting. They are both former winners in Best Actress: Portman for 2010’s Black Swan and Moore in 2014’s Still Alice. As for Melton, the former Riverdale performer appears to be a Supporting Actor play. All three should be in the mix for contention.
There’s another category placement story. At the Golden Globes, December could be placed in Musical/Comedy where its chances at noms might be stronger. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The genre of young adult romances has its share of misses at the box office recently. TheSunIsAlsoaStar will try to reverse that next weekend and that could be tough. Yara Shahidi (best known for TV’s “Black-ish”) is a bright college student who connects with exchange student Charles Melton (of Netflix’s “Riverdale”). Complications arise when her family faces deportation. Costars include Jake Choi, John Leguizamo, and Hill Harper.
Sun is directed by Ry Russo-Young. She’s already had one YA genre flop in the form of BeforeIFall, which opened in 2017 to just $4.6 million. The pic is based on a novel by Nicola Yoon, who also wrote Everything, Everything. Its film adaptation two years ago performed better and debuted to just over $11 million.
I don’t see this reaching the heights of the latter or going quite as low as the former. Mid to possibly upper single digits appears likely.
TheSunIsAlsoaStar opening weekend prediction: $5.5 million
For my JohnWick: Chapter3 – Parabellum prediction, click here:
Youthful romance is center stage in the drama FiveFeetApart this Friday. Justin Baldoni directs Haley Lu Richardson (best known for Split) as a cystic fibrosis patient who catches the eye of Cole Sprouse (currently on TV’s “Riverdale”) with the same condition. Costars include Moises Arias, Parminder Nagra, and Claire Forlani.
The film is based on a novel by Rachael Lippincott. It came out in November of last year and the rights to its adaptation were sold well before its release. CBS Films is hoping this appeals to fans of TheFaultinOurStars. I believe the opening grosses of them will be many millions apart.
I’ll project this manages to reach double digits, though not by much.
FiveFeetApart opening weekend prediction: $10.7 million