Welcome to the first ranked Oscar predictions of the 2022 season for the 95th Academy Awards! I’ll be doing these every few days (once a week or every two weeks) for the high-profile races of Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies. In the fall (maybe earlier), this will expand to all categories covering feature lengths films.
For BP, I will list 25 possibilities with 15 hopefuls in the others. Some quick caveats that always apply – titles of the pictures will change. Just this week, David O. Russell’s Canterbury Glass became Amsterdam and Avatar 2 is now Avatar: The Way of Water.
Actors listed in lead will become supporting players and vice versa. Some movies will be pushed to 2023. And, of course, titles listed on the first day of May will become commercial and critical disappointments and drop off the list. Some pics and performances I’m not even considering at the moment will rise during festivals like Cannes, Toronto, Telluride, and Venice.
So let’s get to it, shall we?
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. The Fabelmans
4. The Son
5. Women Talking
6. She Said
7. Bardo
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once
9. The Whale
10. Rustin
Other Possibilities:
11. Amsterdam
12. White Noise
13. Poor Things
14. Tar
15. Till
16. Empire of Light
17. Avatar: The Way of Water
18. Don’t Worry Darling
19. Next Goal Wins
20. Thirteen Lives
21. The Banshees of Inisherin
22. Elvis
23. The Woman King
24. Three Thousand Years of Longing
25. Armageddon Time
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Damien Chazelle, Babylon
2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
4. Sarah Polley, Women Talking
5. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Bardo
Other Possibilities:
6. Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
7. Florian Zeller, The Son
8. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale
9. Maria Schrader, She Said
10. George C. Wolfe, Rustin
11. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
12. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water
13. Noah Baumbach, White Noise
14. David O. Russell, Amsterdam
15. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Margot Robbie, Babylon
2. Regina King, Shirley
3. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
4. Carey Mulligan, She Said
5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till
Other Possibilities:
6. Cate Blanchett, Tar
7. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light
8. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody
9. Emma Stone, Poor Things
10. Laura Dern, The Son
11. Viola Davis, The Woman King
12. Greta Gerwig, White Noise
13. Saoirse Ronan, See How They Run
14. Florence Pugh, Don’t Worry Darling
15. Tilda Swinton, Three Thousand Years of Longing
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale
2. Hugh Jackman, The Son
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Colman Domingo, Rustin
5. Christian Bale, Amsterdam
Other Possibilities:
6. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon
7. Adam Driver, White Noise
8. Austin Butler, Elvis
9. Diego Calva, Babylon
10. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans
11. Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo
12. Viggo Mortensen, Thirteen Lives
13. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins
14. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
15. Idris Elba, Three Thousand Years of Longing
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
2. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
3. Zoe Kazan, She Said
4. Vanessa Kirby, The Son
5. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking
Other Possibilities:
6. Hong Chau, The Whale
7. Jean Smart, Babylon
8. Whoopi Goldberg, Till
9. Margot Robbie, Amsterdam
10. Dakota Johnson, Cha Cha Real Smooth
11. Sadie Sink, The Whale
12. Patricia Clarkson, She Said
13. Audra McDonald, Rustin
14. Thuso Mbedu, The Woman King
15. Frances McDormand, Women Talking
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
2. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans
3. Brad Pitt, Babylon
4. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
5. Glynn Turman, Rustin
Other Possibilities:
6. John David Washington, Amsterdam
7. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things
8. Seth Rogen, The Fabelmans
9. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
10. Tom Hanks, Elvis
11. Anthony Hopkins, The Son
12. Frankie Faison, Till
13. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking
14. Don Cheadle, White Noise
15. Colin Firth, Empire of Light
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