Film festival season is approaching with Toronto, Venice, Telluride, and more. The early days of September will assist in answering plenty of questions as to the Oscar viability of several pictures.
As for this mid August timeframe, we mostly wait. However, one contender’s chances are clearer than last week. The Aretha Franklin biopic Respect, as I suspected, will not play in Best Picture. Yet the raves for Jennifer Hudson keep me believing she could make the final five in what looks to be a crowded field. Hudson remains in the four spot. The many performances left to witness will eventually answer whether she remains.
There is some movement in the other categories:
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- CODA was one of the acclaimed titles at Sundance and it releases on Apple TV tomorrow. Widely regarded as a crowdpleaser, I’m feeling more hopeful that it makes the top ten in BP. To make room, I’ve removed another buzzed about Sundance effort – Mass. I’ll confess that Mass is a head scratcher for me at press time. The four main leads (Jason Isaacs, Ann Dowd, Reed Birney, Martha Plimpton) will apparently all be campaigned for in the supporting fields. Dowd seems the most assured to make it, but they all could. However, both Isaacs and Plimpton are being taken out of my predicted five.
- That means Toni Collette for Nightmare Alley is in over Plimpton in Supporting Actress. It felt strange not to have at least one actor from Guillermo del Toro’s upcoming pic in the mix. That could also be Rooney Mara in the same race.
- In Supporting Actor, taking out Isaacs puts Corey Hawkins (The Tragedy of Macbeth) in. I’ve also made a switch in the #1 position. Bradley Cooper has had it the first two weeks for Soggy Bottom and now it’s Jesse Plemons in The Power of the Dog.
- The lead actor and screenplay derbies reflect the same five as last week.
Check out all the movement below! I’ll be back at it next week…
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. House of Gucci (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2)
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3)
4. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4)
5. Soggy Bottom (PR: 6)
6. Dune (PR: 5)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7)
8. CODA (PR: 11)
9. West Side Story (PR: 9)
10. A Hero (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
11. Mass (PR: 8)
12. The French Dispatch (PR: 13)
13. Belfast (PR: 12)
14. King Richard (PR: 16)
15. Spencer (PR: 14)
16. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 17)
17. Parallel Mothers (PR: Not Ranked)
18. Cyrano (PR: 15)
19. Flee (PR: 18)
20. Passing (PR: Not Ranked)
21. The Humans (PR: 19)
22. Last Night in Soho (PR: Not Ranked)
23. Blue Bayou (PR: 20)
24. Being the Ricardos (PR: 23)
25. In the Heights (PR: 24)
Dropped Out:
The Last Duel
The Worst Person in the World
Annette
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ridley Scott, House of Gucci (PR: 1)
2. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2)
3. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 4)
4. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5)
5. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Thomas Anderson, Soggy Bottom (PR: 6)
7. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (PR: 8)
8. Asghar Farhadi, A Hero (PR: 7)
9. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 9)
10. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 12)
11. Sian Heder, CODA (PR: 13)
12. Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch (PR: 11)
13. Fran Kranz, Mass (PR: 10)
14. Pedro Almodovar, Parallel Mothers (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Pablo Larrain, Spencer (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Joe Wright, Cyrano
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3)
3. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2)
4. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 4)
5. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 6)
7. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 9)
8. Emilia Jones, CODA (PR: 7)
9. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 10)
10. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley (PR: 8)
11. Jodie Comer, The Last Duel (PR: 12)
12. Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World (PR: 11)
13. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 13)
14. Jennifer Lawrence, Don’t Look Up (PR: 15)
15. Halle Berry, Bruised (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 1)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2)
3. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 3)
4. Adam Driver, House of Gucci (PR: 4)
5. Amir Jadidi, A Hero (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 7)
7. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (PR: 9)
8. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 6)
9. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 10)
10. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 8)
11. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey (PR: 11)
12. Steven Yeun, The Humans (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Adam Driver, Annette (PR: 12)
14. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 13)
15. Cooper Hoffman, Soggy Bottom (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Michael B. Jordan, A Journal for Jordan
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 1)
2. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 2)
3. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 4)
4. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans (PR: 3)
5. Toni Collette, Nightmare Alley (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Martha Plimpton, Mass (PR: 5)
7. Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up (PR: 11)
8. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 7)
9. Thomasin McKenzie, The Power of the Dog (PR: 10)
10. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 13)
11. Olga Merediz, In the Heights (PR: 9)
12. Rooney Mara, Nightmare Alley (PR: 8)
13. Judi Dench, Belfast (PR: 12)
14. Nina Arianda, Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Anya Taylor-Joy, Last Night in Soho (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Audra McDonald, Respect
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2)
2. Bradley Cooper, Soggy Bottom (PR: 1)
3. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (PR: 4)
4. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 5)
5. Corey Hawkins, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jason Isaacs, Mass (PR: 3)
7. Richard E. Grant, Everybody’s Talking About Jamie (PR: 7)
8. Reed Birney, Mass (PR: 10)
9. Mark Rylance, Don’t Look Up (PR: 9)
10. Willem Dafoe, Nightmare Alley (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Idris Elba, The Harder They Fall (PR: 8)
12. Bradley Whitford, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 11)
13. Ben Mendelsohn, Cyrano (PR: 12)
14. Adam Driver, The Last Duel (PR: 13)
15. Simon Helberg, Annette (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Brendan Gleeson, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soggy Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Don’t Look Up (PR: 3)
3. Mass (PR: 2)
4. The French Dispatch (PR: 4)
5. A Hero (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parallel Mothers (PR: 13)
7. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 6)
8. Last Night in Soho (PR: 10)
9. Being the Ricardos (PR: 7)
10. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 9)
11. Spencer (PR: 8)
12. Belfast (PR: 12)
13. King Richard (PR: 14)
14. Blue Bayou (PR: 11)
15. Annette (PR: 15)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1)
2. House of Gucci (PR: 2)
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3)
4. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4)
5. CODA (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Humans (PR: 6)
7. Dune (PR: 7)
8. Passing (PR: 12)
9. Cyrano (PR: 8)
10. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 11)
11. West Side Story (PR: 9)
12. The Last Duel (PR: 10)
13. The Lost Daughter (PR: 13)
14. Dear Evan Hansen (PR: 15)
15. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
A Journal for Jordan
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 