Taika Waititi is a tightrope walker when it comes to the execution of JojoRabbit, the kind of picture that few directors might be permitted to make. It helps when you’re coming off Thor: Ragnarok, the best received of that sub franchise in the MCU. This is a tale of atrocities and those involved in it. And it’s handled with a primarily light tone that eventually doesn’t shy away from the horrors of Nazi Germany.
The premise, based on a novel from Christine Leunens, sounds high concept in description. A boy with an imaginary friend that happens to be Adolf Hitler. That sentence could provide a visceral reaction for many and it’s up to Waititi to justify it. He does so in large measure.
The boy is Jojo (Roman Griffin Davis), a 10-year-old Hitler youth living with his single mother (Scarlett Johansson) in the waning days of World War II. All he really knows is the propaganda of his nation’s leaders and he’s part of the Nazi youth camps. They’re taught by an alcoholic Captain (Sam Rockwell) and a no nonsense Fräulein (Rebel Wilson). Jojo reveres Hitler so much that he acts as his imaginary companion. Waititi pulls double duty as the monstrous Chancellor and plays him as a total nincompoop. Yet like most fictitious companions (even if they’re based on evil real life figures), Jojo’s Hitler serves to reinforce his misguided feelings toward the Jewish people. Also because he’s lonely.
When he discovers that his mom is sheltering young Jewish Elsa (Thomasin McKenzie) upstairs, his adolescent worldview is shattered. The witless Hitler doesn’t know what to make of it. Therefore Jojo struggles with how to handle this until his humanity starts to shine through.
To call this movie is a delicate balance is an understatement. There are satirical tones, but there’s a lot more heart. Anyone expecting a Mel Brooks style Producers exercise should look elsewhere. The humor is abundant for the first two acts especially, but always imbued with a level of pathos that comes into sharper focus as it goes on.
JojoRabbit is mostly an inventive case study in showing one child learning not to hate. It could fall apart without the casting of Davis. He’s rarely off screen and his performance is fantastic. Not fantastic for a child actor. Fantastic. Not many youngsters could pull off the range of emotions he has to go through and he nails it. McKenzie, in many ways, has an equally challenging role as Elsa navigates teaching Jojo not to fear her. The humanity of her character and the actress playing her convinces us and him. As you might imagine, Waititi has a tricky part as well. He’s got some of the best lines and reactions of all in his campy take. The more recognizable actors are all first-rate. In one of the most powerful scenes not involving Jojo, Johansson has a heart to heart about adulthood with Elsa (on the cusp of entering that status). And speaking of highlights, Jojo’s actual best friend Yorki, played by Archie Yates, is a scene stealer.
So… does this all work? Mostly yes. I also can’t deny that Rabbit never quite reaches the emotional impact that it’s trying to land. The concept doesn’t block that possibility. It’s more that the tonal shifts can be somewhat jarring in a couple of cases. It’s practically unavoidable. I never doubted that Waititi’s heart is in the right place and he’s assembled a superb cast to provide numerous laughs and a lot of warmth. Most importantly, it’s told through a child’s eyes who doesn’t recognize his idols are as false as can be until those eyes are opened.
JojoRabbit is undoubtedly one of Toronto’s most eagerly awaited screenings and it held its unveiling last night. The latest from writer/director Taika Waititi (who hit the big time with 2017’s Thor: Ragnarok), Jojo is a comedy that involves a child with an imaginary friend who happens to be Adolf Hitler. The child is played by newcomer Roman Griffin Davis while the filmmaker himself plays Hitler. Other costars include Thomasin McKenzie, Rebel Wilson, Stephen Merchant, Sam Rockwell, and Scarlett Johansson.
It’s tough to gauge if this odd concoction will work based on the trailer. Early critical reaction is all over the map. Some love it while others seem quite turned off with claims that its unique tone never comes together. The result is shown in the current Rotten Tomatoes rating – 55%.
Most films with that score wouldn’t be in the conversation for a Best Picture nod. This could be an exception as those who like it really like it. I still think it’s probably an on the bubble candidate, but let’s see how it plays out.
The two actors getting the most praise appears to be youngsters Davis and Thomasin McKenzie. Waititi and Johansson were looked at as possibilities for the supporting races. Not so much anymore in my view (Scarlett can take comfort in that she’s appears in for MarriageStory). And Waititi could still land an Adapted Screenplay nod.
Bottom line: JojoRabbit looks polarizing enough to keep it away from the big dance, but ardent supporters could change that dynamic. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
It’s been two weeks since I’ve made Oscar predictions and it’s fair to say a lot has happened since then. The show never did find a host, but a host of significant precursors happened. There were the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards. The Directors Guild named their five nominees and they typically nail four of the five eventual nominees in that race. The last 14 days of action have changed my #1 rankings in some very big categories:
After consistently being ranked at #1, AStarIsBorn now falls to second behind Roma.
Keeping with the theme, Christian Bale’s work in Vice vaults to first in Actor ahead of Bradley Cooper in Star.
Once again, a Star dips from the top spot as Glenn Close (TheWife) is first in Actress above Lady Gaga.
After Globe and Critics victories, Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse is #1 in Animated Feature instead of Pixar’s Incredibles2.
You can can read all the rankings below and on Sunday, I will reveal my final picks for nominees ahead of Tuesday morning’s announcements!
BestPicture
1. Roma (Previous Ranking: 2)
2. AStarIsBorn (PR: 1)
3. GreenBook (PR: 4)
4. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)
5. BlackPanther (PR: 6)
6. TheFavourite (PR: 3)
7. Vice (PR: 8)
8. BohemianRhapsody (PR: 10)
9. IfBealeStreetCouldTalk (PR: 7)
OtherPossibilities:
10. FirstMan (PR: 9)
11. MaryPoppinsReturns (PR: 11)
12. AQuietPlace (PR: 13)
13. FirstReformed (PR: 15)
14. CrazyRichAsians (PR: Not Ranked)
15. CanYouEverForgiveMe? (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
EighthGrade
BestDirector
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)
2. Bradley Cooper, AStarIsBorn (PR: 2)
3. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 3)
4. Peter Farrelly, GreenBook (PR: 6)
5. Yorgos Lanthimos, TheFavourite (PR: 4)
OtherPossibilities:
6. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 9)
7. Ryan Coogler, BlackPanther (PR: 5)
8. Barry Jenkins, IfBealeStreetCouldTalk (PR: 7)
9. Damien Chazelle, FirstMan (PR: 8)
10. Pawel Pawlikowski, ColdWar (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Paul Schrader, FirstReformed
BestActor
1. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)
2. Bradley Cooper, AStarIsBorn (PR: 1)
3. Rami Malek, BohemianRhapsody (PR: 4)
4. Viggo Mortensen, GreenBook (PR: 3)
5. Ethan Hawke, FirstReformed (PR: 5)
OtherPossibilities:
6. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)
7. Willem Dafoe, AtEternity’sGate (PR: 7)
8. Ryan Gosling, FirstMan (PR: 8)
9. Robert Redford, TheOldMan & TheGun (PR: 10)
10. Lucas Hedges, BoyErased (PR: 9)
BestActress
1. Glenn Close, TheWife (PR: 3)
2. Lady Gaga, AStarIsBorn (PR: 1)
3. Olivia Colman, TheFavourite (PR: 2)
4. Melissa McCarthy, CanYouEverForgiveMe? (PR: 4)
5. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 6)
OtherPossibilities:
6. Emily Blunt, MaryPoppinsReturns (PR: 5)
7. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 8)
8. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: 7)
10. Elsie Fisher, EighthGrade (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Julia Roberts, BenIsBack
BestSupportingActor
1. Mahershala Ali, GreenBook (PR: 1)
2. Richard E. Grant, CanYouEverForgiveMe? (PR: 2)
3. Sam Elliot, AStarIsBorn (PR: 3)
4. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)
5. Timothee Chalamet, BeautifulBoy (PR: 5)
OtherPossibilities:
6. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 7)
7. Michael B. Jordan, BlackPanther (PR: 6)
8. Steven Yeun, Burning (PR: 10)
9. Nicholas Hoult, TheFavourite (PR: 8)
10. Brian Tyree Henry, IfBealeStreetCouldTalk (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Russell Hornsby, TheHateUGive
BestSupportingActress
1. Regina King, IfBealeStreetCouldTalk (PR: 1)
2. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 2)
3. Rachel Weisz, TheFavourite (PR: 4)
4. Emma Stone, TheFavourite (PR: 3)
5. Claire Foy, FirstMan (PR: 5)
OtherPossibilities:
6. Margot Robbie, MaryQueenofScots (PR: 6)
7. Nicole Kidman, BoyErased (PR: 8)
8. Michelle Yeoh, CrazyRichAsians (PR: Not Ranked)
We are now 19 days away from Oscar nominations as the major precursors are set to air in short order. It begins with the Golden Globes on Sunday (look for my winner predictions for that ceremony on the blog tomorrow). My updated rankings this week reflect the following changes:
Emily Blunt’s starring role in Mary Poppins Returns is back in my predicted top five, ousting Yalitza Aparicio from Roma
In Documentary Feature, RBG falls out of my nominees for the first time and makes way for Shirkers
In Editing, it’s Black Panther in for BlacKkKlansman. This contributes to my tally of Panther getting the most nominations of any picture for the first time (over A Star Is Born)
In Makeup and Hairstyling, Border crosses the top 3 with Mary Queen of Scots on the outside looking in
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 2)
3. The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Green Book (PR: 4)
5. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)
6. Black Panther (PR: 6)
7. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)
8. Vice (PR: 8)
9. First Man (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 10)
11. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 11)
12. Eighth Grade (PR: 14)
13. A Quiet Place (PR: 13)
14. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 12)
15. First Reformed (PR: 15)
Best Director
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)
2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 3)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 4)
5. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 6)
7. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)
8. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 9)
9. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 8)
10. Paul Schrader, First Reformed (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Best Actor
1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)
3. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 4)
4. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 3)
5. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)
7. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 8)
8. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 7)
9. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 10)
10. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 9)
Best Actress
1. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 2)
3. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 3)
4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 5)
7. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: 7)
8. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 8)
9. Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Viola Davis, Widows
Best Supporting Actor
1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)
2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 2)
3. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
4. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)
5. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 6)
7. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 7)
8. Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite (PR: 8)
9. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: 9)
10. Steven Yeun, Burning (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Brian Tyree Henry, If Beale Street Could Talk
Best Supporting Actress
1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
2. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 2)
3. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 4)
5. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 6)
7. Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place (PR: 7)
8. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 8)
9. Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace (PR: 9)
10. Marina De Tavira, Roma (PR: 10)
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 1)
2. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 3)
4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. Black Panther (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. First Man (PR: 7)
7. Leave No Trace (PR: 6)
8. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)
9. Widows (PR: 10)
10. The Hate U Give (PR: 9)
Best Original Screenplay
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 2)
3. Green Book (PR: 3)
4. First Reformed (PR: 5)
5. Eighth Grade (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Vice (PR: 6)
7. A Quiet Place (PR: 7)
8. Private Life (PR: 9)
9. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 8)
10. Cold War (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Best Foreign Language Film
1. Roma (PR: 1)
2. Cold War (PR: 2)
3. Shoplifters (PR: 3)
4. Burning (PR: 4)
5. Capernaum (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Guilty (PR: 6)
7. Never Look Away (PR: 7)
8. Birds of Passage (PR: 8)
9. Ayka (PR: 9)
Best Animated Feature
1. Incredibles 2 (PR: 1)
2. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (PR: 2)
3. Isle of Dogs (PR: 4)
4. Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: 3)
5. Mirai (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Early Man (PR: 6)
7. The Grinch (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Smallfoot (PR: 7)
9. Lu Over the Wall (PR: 8)
10. Ruben Brandt, Collector (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Teen Titans Go! To the Movies
Best Documentary Feature
1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (PR: 1)
2. Free Solo (PR: 2)
3. Minding the Gap (PR: 4)
4. Three Identical Strangers (PR: 3)
5. Shirkers (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. RBG (PR: 5)
7. Hale County This Morning, This Evening (PR: 6)
8. Crime + Punishment (PR: 8)
9. Of Fathers and Sons (PR: 9)
10. On Her Shoulders (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dark Money
Best Film Editing
1. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. First Man (PR: 3)
3. Roma (PR: 2)
4. Black Panther (PR: 7)
5. The Favourite (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Vice (PR: 6)
7. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)
8. Widows (PR: 10)
9. A Quiet Place (PR: 9)
10. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Green Book
Best Cinematography
1. Roma (PR: 1)
2. First Man (PR: 2)
3. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
4. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 5)
5. The Favourite (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cold War (PR: 6)
7. Black Panther (PR: 7)
8. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 10)
9. The Rider (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
BlacKkKlansman
Best Production Design
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)
4. First Man (PR: 4)
5. Roma (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 7)
7. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)
8. A Star Is Born (PR: 6)
9. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 9)
10. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 10)
Best Costume Design
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)
3. Black Panther (PR: 2)
4. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 4)
5. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 7)
7. A Star Is Born (PR: 9)
8. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 6)
9. Colette (PR: 10)
10. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
If Beale Street Could Talk
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
1. Vice (PR: 2)
2. Black Panther (PR: 1)
3. Border (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
4. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)
5. Stan & Ollie (PR: 5)
6. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 6)
7. Suspiria (PR: 7)
Best Sound Editing
1. First Man (PR: 1)
2. A Quiet Place (PR: 2)
3. Black Panther (PR: 3)
4. A Star Is Born (PR: 5)
5. Roma (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: 6)
7. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 8)
8. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 9)
9. Ready Player One (PR: 7)
10. Incredibles 2 (PR: 10)
Best Sound Mixing
1. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. First Man (PR: 2)
3. Black Panther (PR: 5)
4. A Quiet Place (PR: 3)
5. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 7)
7. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: 10)
8. Roma (PR: 6)
9. Ready Player One (PR: 9)
10. Incredibles 2 (PR: 8)
Best Visual Effects
1. First Man (PR: 4)
2. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 1)
3. Black Panther (PR: 2)
4. Ready Player One (PR: 3)
5. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 6)
7. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (PR: 8)
8. Welcome to Marwen (PR: 7)
9. Ant-Man and the Wasp (PR: 9)
10. Christopher Robin (PR: 10)
Best Original Score
1. First Man (PR: 2)
2. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)
3. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
4. Black Panther (PR: 3)
5. Isle of Dogs (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)
7. A Quiet Place (PR: 7)
8. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 8)
9. Ready Player One (PR: 10)
10. Vice (PR: 9)
Best Original Song
1. “Shallow” from A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. “All the Stars” from Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. “Trip a Little Light Fantastic” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
4. “I’ll Fight” from RBG (PR: 3)
5. “Girl in the Movies” from Dumplin (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)
7. “Revelation” from Boy Erased (PR: 7)
8. “OYAHTT” from Sorry to Bother You (PR: 10)
9. “When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings” from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 8)
10. “We Won’t Move” from The Hate U Give (PR: 10)
And that breaks down to these movies getting the following number of nods:
12 Nominations
Black Panther
11 Nominations
A Star Is Born
10 Nominations
The Favourite
9 Nominations
First Man
8 Nominations
Roma
7 Nominations
Mary Poppins Returns
5 Nominations
If Beale Street Could Talk
4 Nominations
BlacKkKlansman, Green Book, Vice
3 Nominations
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
2 Nominations
A Quiet Place, First Reformed, Isle of Dogs
1 Nomination
Avengers: Infinity War, Beautiful Boy, Bohemian Rhapsody, Border, Burning, Capernaum, Cold War, Dumplin, Eighth Grade, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, Free Solo, Incredibles 2, Mary Queen of Scots, Minding the Gap, Mirai, Ralph Breaks the Internet, RBG, Ready Player One, Shirkers, Shoplifters, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Three Identical Strangers, The Wife, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?
It’s my final Oscar predictions of 2018 as the nominations draw closer (with the Golden Globes airing next Sunday)! And, yes, we’re seeing some changes:
First Man is back in my predicted nine with Mary Poppins Returns out. Bohemian Rhapsody continues to rise and is inching closer to possible inclusion.
In Best Director, Ryan Coogler (Black Panther) is in with Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk) out.
In Best Actress, Yalitza Aparicio returns to my top 5 with Emily Blunt’s title role in Mary Poppins Returns falling.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 2)
3. The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Green Book (PR: 5)
5. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)
6. Black Panther (PR: 6)
7. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)
8. Vice (PR: 8)
9. First Man (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
10. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 11)
11. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)
12. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 12)
13. A Quiet Place (PR: 14)
14. Eighth Grade (PR: 13)
15. First Reformed (PR: 15)
Best Director
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)
2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 3)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 4)
5. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 7)
7. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 5)
8. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 8)
9. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 9)
10. Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rob Marshall, Mary Poppins Returns
Best Actor
1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)
3. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 3)
4. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 4)
5. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)
7. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 9)
8. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 7)
9. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 8)
10. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ben Foster, Leave No Trace
Best Actress
1. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 2)
3. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 3)
4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)
7. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: 8)
8. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 7)
9. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 10)
10. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 9)
Best Supporting Actor
1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)
2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 2)
3. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
4. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)
5. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 6)
7. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 7)
8. Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite (PR: 9)
9. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: 8)
10. Brian Tyree Henry, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Daniel Kaluuya, Widows
Best Supporting Actress
1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
2. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 2)
3. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 4)
5. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 6)
7. Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place (PR: 7)
8. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 8)
9. Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace (PR: 9)
10. Marina De Tavira, Roma (PR: 10)
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 1)
2. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 3)
4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. Black Panther (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Leave No Trace (PR: 8)
7. First Man (PR: 6)
8. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 7)
9. The Hate U Give (PR: 9)
10. Widows (PR: 10)
Best Original Screenplay
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 2)
3. Green Book (PR: 3)
4. Eighth Grade (PR: 5)
5. First Reformed (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Vice (PR: 6)
7. A Quiet Place (PR: 7)
8. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Private Life (PR: 8)
10. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Sorry to Bother You
Best Foreign Language Film
1. Roma (PR: 1)
2. Cold War (PR: 2)
3. Shoplifters (PR: 3)
4. Burning (PR: 5)
5. Capernaum (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Guilty (PR: 8)
7. Never Look Away (PR: 6)
8. Birds of Passage (PR: 7)
9. Ayka (PR: 9)
Best Animated Feature
1. Incredibles 2 (PR: 1)
2. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (PR: 2)
3. Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: 4)
4. Isle of Dogs (PR: 3)
5. Mirai (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Early Man (PR: 6)
7. Smallfoot (PR: 7)
8. Lu Over the Wall (PR: 10)
9. Ruben Brandt, Collector (PR: 9)
10. Teen Titans Go! To the Movies (PR: 8)
Best Documentary Feature
1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor (PR: 1)
2. Free Solo (PR: 2)
3. Three Identical Strangers (PR: 3)
4. Minding the Gap (PR: 5)
5. RBG (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hale County This Morning, This Evening (PR: 7)
7. Shirkers (PR: 8)
8. Crime + Punishment (PR: 6)
9. Of Fathers and Sons (PR: 10)
10. Dark Money (PR: 9)
Best Film Editing
1. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
2. Roma (PR: 1)
3. First Man (PR: 3)
4. The Favourite (PR: 4)
5. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Vice (PR: 6)
7. Black Panther (PR: 7)
8. Green Book (PR: 10)
9. A Quiet Place (PR: 8)
10. Widows (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Mary Poppins Returns
Best Cinematography
1. Roma (PR: 1)
2. First Man (PR: 2)
3. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
4. The Favourite (PR: 4)
5. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cold War (PR: 5)
7. Black Panther (PR: 6)
8. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 9)
9. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 8)
10. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Green Book
Best Production Design
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)
4. First Man (PR: 5)
5. Roma (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Star Is Born (PR: 9)
7. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 4)
8. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 7)
9. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 8)
10. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
If Beale Street Could Talk
Best Costume Design
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
4. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)
5. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 9)
7. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 6)
8. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: Not Ranked)
9. A Star Is Born (PR: 7)
10. Colette (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
The Nutcracker and the Four Realms
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
1. Black Panther (PR: 1)
2. Vice (PR: 2)
3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
4. Border (PR: 5)
5. Stan & Ollie (PR: 6)
6. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 4)
7. Suspiria (PR: 7)
Best Sound Editing
1. First Man (PR: 1)
2. A Quiet Place (PR: 3)
3. Black Panther (PR: 2)
4. Roma (PR: 4)
5. A Star Is Born (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: 8)
7. Ready Player One (PR: 5)
8. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)
9. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Incredibles 2 (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Solo: A Star Wars Story
Best Sound Mixing
1. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. First Man (PR: 2)
3. A Quiet Place (PR: 5)
4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
5. Black Panther (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Roma (PR: 7)
7. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 6)
8. Incredibles 2 (PR: 9)
9. Ready Player One (PR: 8)
10. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Solo: A Star Wars Story
Best Visual Effects
1. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 1)
2. Black Panther (PR: 4)
3. Ready Player One (PR: 3)
4. First Man (PR: 2)
5. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 6)
7. Welcome to Marwen (PR: 8)
8. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (PR: 9)
9. Ant-Man and the Wasp (PR: 7)
10. Christopher Robin (PR: 10)
Best Original Score
1. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)
2. First Man (PR: 1)
3. Black Panther (PR: 6)
4. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)
5. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Isle of Dogs (PR: 5)
7. A Quiet Place (PR: 7)
8. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 8)
9. Vice (PR: 10)
10. Ready Player One (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Annihilation
Best Original Song
1. “Shallow” from A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. “All the Stars” from Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. “I’ll Fight” from RBG (PR: 4)
4. “Trip a Little Light Fantastic” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)
5. “Girl in the Movies” from Dumplin (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)
7. “Revelation” from Boy Erased (PR: 7)
8. “When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings” from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 10)
9. “We Won’t Move” from The Hate U Give (PR: 8)
10. “OYAHTT” from Sorry to Bother You (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“A Place Called Slaughter Race” from Ralph Breaks the Internet
And that adds up to these pictures getting the following number of nominations:
11 Nominations
A Star Is Born, Black Panther
10 Nominations
The Favourite
9 Nominations
First Man, Roma
6 Nominations
BlacKkKlansman, Mary Poppins Returns
5 Nominations
If Beale Street Could Talk
4 Nominations
Green Book, Vice
3 Nominations
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
2 Nominations
A Quiet Place, First Reformed, Mary Queen of Scots, RBG
1 Nomination
Avengers: Infinity War, Beautiful Boy, Bohemian Rhapsody, Burning, Capernaum, Cold War, Eighth Grade, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, Free Solo, Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Minding the Gap, Mirai, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Ready Player One, Shoplifters, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Three Identical Strangers, The Wife, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?
My weekly Oscar predictions are here again and there’s been some developments to discuss:
Earlier this week, a number of categories released their shortlists: Foreign Language Film, Documentary Feature, Makeup and Hairstyling, Visual Effects, Original Score, Original Song. As you’ll see, those picks reflect the new landscape for those races.
I’m going back to picking nine Best Picture selections and that means that FirstMan is out for the first time.
BlackPanther is a predicted nominee in Adapted Screenplay, making its inaugural appearance. It replaces CrazyRichAsians.
In Original Screenplay, EighthGrade is back in over Vice.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
1. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 2)
3. The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)
5. Green Book (PR: 4)
6. Black Panther (PR: 7)
7. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)
8. Vice (PR: 8)
9. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. First Man (PR: 10)
11. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 14)
12. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 11)
13. Eighth Grade (PR: 12)
14. A Quiet Place (PR: Not Ranked)
15. First Reformed (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
Crazy Rich Asians
Best Director
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)
2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 3)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 4)
5. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 8)
7. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 6)
8. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 7)
9. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 9)
10. Rob Marshall, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 10)
Best Actor
1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)
3. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 4)
4. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 3)
5. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 8)
7. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 6)
8. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 9)
9. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 7)
10. Ben Foster, Leave No Trace (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased
Best Actress
1. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
2. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 3)
3. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 1)
4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yalitza Aparacio, Roma (PR: 6)
7. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 7)
8. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: 9)
9. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 10)
10. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 8)
Best Supporting Actor
1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)
2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 2)
3. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
4. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)
5. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 6)
7. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 7)
8. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: 9)
9. Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite (PR: 8)
10. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actress
1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
2. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 2)
3. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 4)
5. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 6)
7. Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place (PR: 10)
8. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 7)
9. Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 9)
9. A Star Is Born (PR: 7)
10. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 10)
Best Costume Design
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)
4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
5. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: Not Ranked)
7. A Star Is Born (PR: 8)
8. Colette (PR: 6)
9. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 7)
10. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
If Beale Street Could Talk
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
1. Black Panther (PR: 1)
2. Vice (PR: 3)
3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities:
4. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 9)
5. Border (PR: Not Ranked)
6. Stan & Ollie (PR: 4)
7. Suspiria (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
Colette
A Star Is Born
Solo: A Star Wars Story
Best Sound Editing
1. First Man (PR: 1)
2. Black Panther (PR: 3)
3. A Quiet Place (PR: 2)
4. Roma (PR: 5)
5. Ready Player One (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Star Is Born (PR: 4)
7. Incredibles 2 (PR: 6)
8. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: 8)
9. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 7)
10. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 9)
Best Sound Mixing
1. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. First Man (PR: 2)
3. Black Panther (PR: 3)
4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)
5. A Quiet Place (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 5)
7. Roma (PR: 7)
8. Ready Player One (PR: 10)
9. Incredibles 2 (PR: 8)
10. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 9)
Best Visual Effects
1. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 1)
2. First Man (PR: 2)
3. Ready Player One (PR: 3)
4. Black Panther (PR: 5)
5. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 7)
7. Ant-Man and the Wasp (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Welcome to Marwen (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Christopher Robin (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Incredibles 2
Aquaman
Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
A Quiet Place
Best Original Score
1. First Man (PR: 1)
2. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)
3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)
4. BlackKlansman (PR: 4)
5. Isle of Dogs (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther (PR: 7)
7. A Quiet Place (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Annihilation (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Vice (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Mary Queen of Scots
Incredibles 2
Colette
Suspiria
Best Original Song
1. “Shallow” from A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. “All the Stars” from Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. “Trip a Little Light Fantastic” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)
4. “I’ll Fight” from RBG (PR: 4)
5. “Girl in the Movies” from Dumplin (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)
7. “Revelation” from Boy Erased (PR: 6)
8. “We Won’t Move” from The Hate U Give (PR: 10)
9. “A Place Called Slaughter Race” from Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: 8)
10. “When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings” from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Time for Change” from On the Basis of Sex
And that gives these pictures the following number of nominations:
10 Nominations
A Star Is Born, The Favourite
9 Nominations
Black Panther
8 Nominations
First Man, Mary Poppins Returns
7 Nominations
Roma
6 Nominations
BlacKkKlansman
5 Nominations
If Beale Street Could Talk
4 Nominations
Green Book, Vice
3 Nominations
Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Mary Queen of Scots
2 Nominations
A Quiet Place, Cold War, First Reformed, Isle of Dogs, Ready Player One, RBG
1 Nomination
Avengers: Infinity War, Beautiful Boy, Bohemian Rhapsody, Burning, Capernaum, Dumplin, Eighth Grade, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, Free Solo, Incredibles 2, Minding the Gap, Mirai, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Shoplifters, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Three Identical Strangers, The Wife, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?
Yet another major precursor enters the fold tomorrow when the Screen Actors Guild nominations are announced. Unlike other awards shows, it’s wise to remember that this ceremony is solely voted upon by the thespians who make up SAG. That means no Director race.
More importantly, it means “Best Picture” does not exist. The big prize is Best Ensemble. That designation favors films with large casts. Let’s break down the five major categories with predictions and an alternate and wild card, shall we?
Best Ensemble
As mentioned, big casts help. That would seem to favor something like If Beale Street Could Talk with its sprawling one, as well as Black Panther and Crazy Rich Asians. Another pic fitting the bill is Vice. As long as the guild members saw it in time, I think it stands an excellent shot.
A Star Is Born is more of a question mark. While it could be looked at as a soft front-runner for Best Picture (along with Roma, which I don’t believe factors here), the actors garnering attention are Bradley Cooper, Lady Gaga, and Sam Elliot. While I believe they will be individually noticed, I’m questioning whether the picture itself is named here. The Favourite (even with it also being focused mostly on three actresses) likely has a better chance. There’s certainly other possibilities and they include BlacKkKlansman, Green Book, and Widows (though it’s seen its awards fortunes dwindle).
Predicted Nominees
Black Panther
Crazy Rich Asians
The Favourite
If Beale Street Could Talk
Vice
Alternate – A Star Is Born
Wild Card – Widows
Best Actor
The nominees for Actor here are a solid predictor for Oscar inclusion. In 2015 and 2017, four of the performers here went on to be honored by the Academy. In 2016, it was all five. I’m going with the 5 men I see as most likely to score an Oscar nod at this juncture – with a sneaking suspicion that Ryan Gosling for replace one of then.
Predicted Nominees
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Alternate – Ryan Gosling, First Man
Wild Card – Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Best Actress
There’s not quite as much match with Oscar and SAG here – three in 2015 and 2016 and four last year. As has been discussed many times on this blog, Best Actress is packed in 2018. The potential for a “surprise nominee” here is very real. I feel the need to pick one and I’m going with Toni Collette in Hereditary over the more probable Academy nominee Emily Blunt in Mary Poppins Returns.
Predicted Nominees
Glenn Close, The Wife
Toni Collette, Hereditary
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Alternate – Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Wild Card – Viola Davis, Widows
Best Supporting Actor
We had an outlier in 2015 when only two of the SAG nominees here got Oscar attention. For the past two years, it’s been four. If there’s a real shocker here, look out for names like Daniel Kaluuya (Widows) or Russell Hornsby (The Hate U Give). I’m not willing to be that bold with my picks though.
Predicted Nominees
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Alternate – Sam Rockwell, Vice
Wild Card – Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther
Best Supporting Actress
The SAG/Oscar match was four in 2015, five in 2016, and three for 2017. I’m estimating the five performers here match last week’s Golden Globe nominations. If there’s a surprise, look for Thomasin McKenzie (Leave No Trace), Natalie Portman (Vox Lux), or Marina de Tavira (Roma).
Predicted Nominees
Amy Adams, Vice
Claire Foy, First Man
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Alternate – Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased
Wild Card – Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians
And there you have it! I’ll have reaction up tomorrow after the announcements are made.
