Over the past couple of weeks, the biggest developments in the Oscar estimating game has come courtesy of lineup announcements for the Venice and Toronto Film Festivals. Some of these updates are cosmetic – Ann Lee is now The Testament of Ann Lee, The Ballad of a Small Player has dropped the The. Some titles including Anemone, Ella McKay, Is This Thing On?, and Klara and the Sun might be skipping the fest circuit altogether. Perhaps some of them will move to 2026. It appears Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another is foregoing the circuit prior to its September bow, but PTA is known for skipping them. Same goes for Marty Supreme though that’s not too surprising considering the Christmas release. It’s worth noting any of the aforementioned titles could pop up in London or New York or Telluride. Some of these festival premieres are receiving release dates while trailers continue to roll out including Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt.
There are changes to discuss:
- In BP, it is Avatar: Fire and Ash back in along with Hikari’s Rental Family for the first time. They take out Palme d’Or winner It Was Just an Accident and Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet.
- In Director, two changes with Yorgos Lanthimos (Bugonia) and Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein) in my top five with Luca Guadagnino (After the Hunt) and Jafar Panahi (It Was Just an Accident) dropping.
- In Supporting Actress, Ayo Edebiri’s work in After the Hunt elevates to #1 over Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good), sliding to second. Mari Yamamoto (Rental Family) enters the projected quintet with Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value) now on the outside looking in.
- A similar story in Supporting Actor with Akira Emoto (Rental Family) now predicted and Jeremy Strong from Springsteen now outside the high five.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (+1)
4. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)
7. Bugonia (PR: 7) (E)
8. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (E)
9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Rental Family (PR: 15) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)
12. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Hamnet (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (-1)
15. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 20) (+5)
16. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 14) (-2)
17. A House of Dynamite (PR: 16) (-1)
18. No Other Choice (PR: 19) (+1)
19. F1 (PR: 23) (+4)
20. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 17) (-3)
21. The Secret Agent (PR: 18) (-3)
22. The Smashing Machine (PR: 25) (+3)
23. The Life of Chuck (PR: 22) (-1)
24. Is This Thing On? (PR: 24) (E)
25. Die, My Love (PR: 21) (-4)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)
9. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Hikari, Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Mona Fastvold, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 14) (E)
15. Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King
Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 6) (E)
7. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sydney Sweeney, Christy (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Emma Mackey, Ella McKay (PR: 10) (-1)
12. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 14) (-2)
13. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Amy Adams, At the Sea (PR: 15) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)
5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 12) (+6)
7. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)
8. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 6) (-4)
11. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Colin Farrell, Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)
4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (E)
8. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)
9. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 6) (-4)
11. Thomasin McKenzie, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 14) (+3)
12. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Regina Hall, One Battle After Another
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: 10) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 11) (E)
12. Jude Law, The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Jeffrey Wright, Highest 2 Lowest
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (+1)
3. After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Sinners (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Rental Family (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-2)
7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Sorry, Baby (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Is This Thing On? (PR: 15) (+4)
12. Ella McCay (PR: 12) (E)
13. The Secret Agent (PR: 11) (-2)
14. A House of Dynamite (PR: 13) (-1)
14. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nouvelle Vague
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bugonia (PR: 1) (E)
2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Train Dreams (PR: 13) (+8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (-2)
7. No Other Choice (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (E)
10. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 10) (-1)
12. The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: Not Ranked)
13. The Smashing Machine (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Die, My Love (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Late Fame (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Highest 2 Lowest
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)
3. No Other Choice (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (E)
5. The President’s Cake (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6, Sirât (PR: 6) (E)
7. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Sound of Falling (PR: 8) (-1)
10. All That’s Left of You (PR: 10) (E)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zootopia 2 (PR: 1) (E)
2. Arco (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elio (PR: 3) (E)
4. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Scarlet (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Magnificent Life (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 8) (+1)
8. In Your Dreams (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Animal Farm (PR: 9) (E)
10. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)
2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)
3. Seeds (PR: 3) (E)
4. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 4) (E)
5. Deaf President Now! (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 7) (E)
8. Orwell: 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Timestamp (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Alabama Solution
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Rental Family (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. After the Hunt (PR: 6) (E)
7. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-2)
8. One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Jay Kelly (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Rivals of Amziah King
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)
3. Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)
4. One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
F1
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)
7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (E)
8. Mother Mary (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Snow White (PR: 9) (E)
10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (-4)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Bugonia (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (-2)
5. F1 (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+3)
8. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)
9. After the Hunt (PR: 4) (-5)
10. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jay Kelly
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)
5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. 28 Years Later (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Christy (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Wolf Man (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Superman (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Mother Mary (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Marty Supreme
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)
3. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)
4. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Bugonia (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sentimental Value (PR: 7) (E)
8. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: Not Ranked)
9. F1 (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jay Kelly
Marty Supreme
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 3) (E)
4. TBD from Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (+1)
5. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. TBD from Wicked: For Good (second song) (PR: 6) (E)
7. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 8) (+1)
8. TBD from Zootopia 2 (PR: 4) (-4)
9. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Pale, Pale Moon” from Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
TBD from Mother Mary
“Steve’s Lava Chicken” from A Minecraft Movie
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)
3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Sinners (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
One Battle After Another
The Phoenician Scheme
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. F1 (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (E)
5. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Warfare (PR: 6) (E)
7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)
8. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Superman (PR: 9) (E)
10. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
One Battle After Another
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)
2. Superman (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Tron: Ares (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. F1 (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (-3)
9. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Mickey 17 (PR: 10) (E)
And that works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
14 Nominations
Sinners
10 Nominations
Wicked: For Good
9 Nominations
Sentimental Value
7 Nominations
Bugonia, Frankenstein
6 Nominations
After the Hunt
5 Nominations
Marty Supreme, Rental Family
4 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash, Hamnet, Jay Kelly
3 Nominations
One Battle After Another, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
2 Nominations
F1, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Kpop Demon Hunters, The Testament of Ann Lee, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
1 Nomination
2000 Meters to Andrivka, Arco, Cutting Through Rocks, Dead President Now!, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, It Was Just an Accident, No Other Choice, The Perfect Neighbor, The President’s Cake, Scarlet, The Secret Agent, Seeds, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Train Dreams, Tron: Ares, Zootopia 2
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