Tag: The Secret Agent

99th Academy Awards Predictions: April 19th Edition

Barely a month beyond the 98th edition of the Academy Awards, we have arrived at my first ranked predictions for the 99th ceremony. We begin with six major categories – Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies.

I gave you my first ranked glimpses for the previous telecast around the same time last year in these same races. How did that impossibly early forecast turn out? I correctly called four of the eventual ten BP nominees with Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, and Sinners. Winner One Battle After Another as well as Bugonia, F1, and Frankenstein were listed in Other Possibilities. So 80% of the BP contenders were identified with The Secret Agent and Train Dreams not being mentioned in April 2025.

In Best Director, three of the five filmmakers were predicted: Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), and Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value). Statue recipient Paul Thomas Anderson from One Battle and Chloé Zhao (Hamnet) were in Other Possibilities.

As for Best Actress, Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) swept the season and was in my predicted quintet. So was Sentimental Value‘s Renate Reinsve while Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You) and Emma Stone (Bugonia) were in Other Possibilities. Only Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue) wasn’t listed. In Best Actor, Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) was in my quintet. Three others – winner Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), and Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) were Other Possibilities with Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) as the sole thespian not identified.

My projected Supporting Actress five rightly named Teyana Taylor (One Battle) with Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) as a possibility. Fanning’s costar Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Wumni Mosaku (Sinners), and the victorious Amy Madigan (Weapons) were not found among my possibilities. In Supporting Actor, Stellan Skarsgård from Value was in my five with winner Sean Penn (One Battle) and Delroy Lindo (Sinners) as possibilities. Battle‘s Benicio del Toro and Frankenstein‘s Jacob Elordi were not to be found yet.

Let’s get some caveats out of the way. Some of the performers listed in lead will end up in supporting and vice versa. As an example, I figured Paul Mescal (Hamnet) would go lead for that film last year, but he was slotted in supporting. He ended up not being nominated but likely came close. For instance in this year’s listings, I don’t know if Sam Rockwell will be lead or supporting for Wild Horse Nine but my hunch says the latter at press time. The distributor will eventually clear that up.

We will see pictures push to 2027. When I did my initial projections a year ago for 2025, Michael and The Rivals of Amziah King were thought to be releases for that calendar frame. Both are being put out in ’26. I have Michael still as a potential nominee in some competitions. Not so at this time for Rivals.

And now the most important forewarning. Some movies you find below will turn out to be non-contenders. My inaugural look at the 98th Oscars listed Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt at #1 in Best Picture, Director, Actress (Julia Roberts), #4 in Supporting Actress (Ayo Edebiri), and #2 in Supporting Actor (Andrew Garfield). After its Venice festival premiere, the mixed to negative reaction drastically changed its narrative. It ended up with zero nominations. My April 2025 #1’s in the supporting fields – Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good) and Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly) – did not make final cut either.

So take this speculation as what it is – speculative. The picture and Best Picture will become clearer in time. That said, a reminder that 80% of the BP nominees were mentioned a year ago in addition to 100% of the directors and 80% of the lead acting hopefuls could be found in the initial post. On the flip side, nearly all of my acting picks for a nomination are coming from projected BP nominees and the percentage probably won’t be quite that high.

When Sinners came out last year, it was a box office juggernaut with widespread critical acclaim. Yet I wondered whether the spring release could mean it would fall by the wayside months down the line. That’s why I named it in Other Possibilities for Picture, Director, Actor, and Supporting Actor. What happened months down the line? A record-setting 16 nominations with Jordan winning Actor. I won’t make the same mistake with Project Hail Mary. It has been out for weeks and already looks like a strong contender in Picture, Director, Actor, and possibly Supporting Actress. Another note – it’s not often (or maybe ever) you see a performer mentioned four times. That’s the case at the moment with the busy Sandra Hüller who is a legit threat twice in lead Actress and supporting.

You can expect these posts to hit the blog every couple of weeks until it becomes weekly. This should occur when festival season goes into overdrive in last summer/early fall.

BEST PICTURE

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey

2. Project Hail Mary

3. Wild Horse Nine

4. Digger

5. Fjord

6. No One Cares

7. All of a Sudden

8. Fatherland

9. The Social Reckoning

10. Dune: Part Three

Other Possibilities:

11. Narnia: The Magican’s Nephew

12. A Place in Hell

13. A Long Winter

14. The Entertainment System is Down

15. Being Heumann

16. Cry to Heaven

17. Josephine

18. Werwulf

19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth

20. Michael

21. Paper Tiger

22. Saturn Return

23. Sense and Sensibility

24. Jack of Spades

25. Behemoth!

BEST DIRECTOR

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey

2. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger

3. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary

4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine

5. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord

Other Possibilities:

6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden

7. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland

8. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares

9. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three

10. Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

11. Ruben Östlund, The Entertainment System is Down

12. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven

13. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning

14. Robert Eggers, Werwulf

15. David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

BEST ACTRESS

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord

2. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning

3. Julianne Moore, No One Cares

4. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland

5. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell

Other Possibilities:

6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden

7. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann

8. Mason Reeves, Josephine

9. Sophie Okenedo, Clarissa

10. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie

11. Sandra Hüller, Rose

12. Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police

13. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return

14. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility

15. Amy Adams, At the Sea

BEST ACTOR

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary

3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine

4. Sebastian Stan, Fjord

5. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland

Other Possibilities:

6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey

7. Robert Aramayo, I Swear

8. Dominic Sessa, Tony

9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven

10. Jafaar Jackson, Michael

11. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three

12. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

13. Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

14. Charles Melton, Saturn Return

15. John Turturro, The Only Pickpocket Living in New York

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Predicted Nominees:

1. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine

2. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine

3. Halle Bailey, No One Cares

4. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey

5. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden

Other Possibilities:

6. Sandra Hüller, Digger

7. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell

8.. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary

9. Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter

10. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger

11. Wunmi Mosaku, The Social Reckoning

12. Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down

13. Gemma Chan, Josephine

14. Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades

15. Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares

2. John Goodman, Digger

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine

4. Colman Domingo, Michael

5. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning

Other Possibilities:

6. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine

7. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell

8. Tom Holland, The Odyssey

9. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann

10. D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai, A Long Winter

11. Jesse Plemons, Digger

12. Channing Tatum, Josephine

13. David Oyelowo, Clarissa

14. Daniel Brühl, The Entertainment System is Down

15. Riz Ahmed, Digger

99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Picture

And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 99th Academy Awards.

We are not a month removed from the 98th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They have been unfolding on the blog over the last few days. I already posted my takes for the acting races and director and they can be accessed here:

99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Director
99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actress
99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actor
99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actress
99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

That brings us to the biggest race of all – Best Picture. When I did my first projections for BP for the 98th ceremony back in April of 2025, I correctly named 80% of the eventual contenders among the five nominated pics or in other possibilities. Hamnet, Marty Supreme, and Sentimental Value were rightly projected to make the cut. Eventual winner One Battle After Another along with Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, and Sinners were listed in other possibilities. The Secret Agent and Train Dreams were not mentioned at that early juncture.

Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Others will rise up through the festival system at Cannes, Telluride, Toronto, and Venice.

This premiere post assumes that one pic already in release has reserved a spot and that’s box office juggernaut Project Hail Mary. It could be joined by another likely mega earner in Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey. Foreign fare such as All of a Sudden, Fatherland, and Fjord (all premiering at Cannes) are also on my radar.

My initial ranked predictions in the six major races (as well as the screenplay competitions) will be posted soon. In the meantime, here’s the first glimpse at BP.

TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST PICTURE AT THE 99TH ACADEMY AWARDS

All of a Sudden

Cry to Heaven

Digger

Fatherland

Fjord

Ink

No One Cares

The Odyssey

Project Hail Mary

Wild Horse Nine

Other Possibilities:

The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Behemoth!

Being Heumann

Dune: Part Three

Jack of Spades

Josephine

A Long Winter

Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Paper Tiger

A Place in Hell

Saturn Return

The Social Reckoning

Tony

Toy Story 5

Werwulf

99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actor

And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 99th Academy Awards.

We are a couple weeks removed from the 98th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my take in the supporting fields and they can be found here:

99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actress
99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

We arrive at Best Actor. When I did my first picks for last year’s race, I correctly named one of the eventual five nominees and that was Timothée Chalamet for Marty Supreme. In Other Possibilities, I identified Leonardo DiCaprio in One Battle After Another. At that early juncture, I did not list the eventual winner Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), or Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent).

Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Actors listed here could end up being campaigned in supporting. And there will be movies we’re not even anticipating that will rise up with performances currently not on the radar.

For this premiere post, it’s probable that we already know one member of the quintet and that’s Ryan Gosling in Project Hail Mary. His film is a box office juggernaut and he has to carry much of the running time by himself. If he makes the cut, it would mark his fourth attempt at the gold statue behind lead noms for Half Nelson and La La Land and a supporting nod for Barbie.

He’s not the only star potentially in line for a fourth mention. The same holds true for Tom Cruise in Alejandro Gonzales Inarritu’s Digger. He won an honorary Oscar at the 98th ceremony, but is 0 for 3 in the competitive races are being up in lead for Born on the Fourth of July and Jerry Maguire and in supporting for Magnolia.

We aren’t finished yet talking about thespians getting their fourth nominations. Matt Damon contended for lead in Good Will Hunting and The Martian and a supporting turn in Invictus. His 4th try could come via Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey.

John Malkovich is probably going lead for Martin McDonagh’s Wild Horse Nine after two supporting attempts for Places in the Heart and In the Line of Fire. He could make it in for the first time in 33 years.

For my fifth pick, I’m perhaps going out a limb and selecting Robert Aramayo (I Swear) who pulled off a BAFTA upset in Best Actor weeks ago. It comes out stateside in a couple of weeks and could have enough staying power for the BAFTA recipient to stake a claim. I’ll admit this a long shot projection, but hey it’s early right?

The speculation will continue in earnest during the weeks and months ahead, but here’s the first snapshot for Best Actor. Best Actress up next!

TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST ACTOR AT THE 99TH ACADEMY AWARDS

Robert Aramayo, I Swear

Tom Cruise, Digger

Matt Damon, The Odyssey

Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary

John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine

Other Possibilities:

Adam Driver, Paper Tiger

Andrew Garfield, Artificial

Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven

Jaafar Jackson, Michael

Josh O’Connor, Jack of Spades

Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

Will Poulter, Saturn Return

Dominic Sessa, Tony

Sebastian Stan, Fjord

Hanns Zischler, Fatherland

98th Academy Awards: FINAL Winner Predictions

It is time to make my final predictions for the 98th Academy Awards airing Sunday evening with Conan O’Brien returning as host. The first word that comes to mind… ugh. This is tough. Not every category. Some are quite easy to forecast as is normally the case.

The ones that aren’t? I would say five of the top six competitions could go in different directions and that’s unique. As readers of my blog know, there are scores of individual write-ups talking about the Oscar chances of various films. There are multiple posts ranking the possibilities of pics, performers, directors, writers, and all kinds of crew members. It’s now time to put pencils down and write down my selections in pen for the 21 (now that Best Casting has joined the lineup) feature-length races.

Let’s get to it as I’ll select a winner and runner-up in each! And you can bet I’ll have a recap up Sunday night with reaction and how I did!

Best Picture

Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Train Dreams

This is a head vs. gut call. The head says One Battle After Another which has taken PGA, the Golden Globe for Best Musical or Comedy, Critics Choice, and BAFTA. That kind of combo would normally be undeniable in BP. Yet Sinners is more of the gut prediction. Having just won Best Ensemble at SAG Actor, Ryan Coogler’s vampire tale seems to be peaking at the right time as voters finalize ballots. The record haul of 16 noms is an obvious bonus.

I cannot stress enough how much of a coin flip this is. I may look foolish on Sunday by betting against the kind of hardware that Battle has achieved in the precursors. However, for several days, the momentum of Sinners has me leaning in its direction.

WINNER: Sinners

Runner-Up: One Battle After Another

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)

2021 was the last year where there was a BP/Director split with CODA taking the grand prize and Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog) winning Director. Mr. Anderson has swept the precursors including the Directors Guild of America (DGA) which rarely differs from Oscar. A better night for Sinners than even I’m projecting could cause Ryan Coogler to become the first African-American to make this particular podium trip. In this case, my head and gut say PTA.

WINNER: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Ryan Coogler, Sinners

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Emma Stone (Bugonia)

Someone other than Jessie Buckley had to win Actress in a Musical or Comedy at the Globes. That was Rose Byrne. Therefore she gets runner-up status. Make no mistake. Of the major categories, this is by far the easiest as Buckley has won everything else.

WINNER: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

Runner-Up: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Best Actor

Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)

For a while, Critics Choice and Globe winner Timothée Chalamet was looking almost as certain as Buckley. BAFTA and SAG changed that dynamic and they are the last two precursors heading into Oscar voting. At the British ceremony, the not Academy nominated Robert Aramayo (I Swear) was triumphant. At SAG, it was Michael B. Jordan. There’s also Golden Globe Best Drama in a Drama recipient Wagner Moura. All three are viable. Heck there’s even prognosticators making arguments for DiCaprio and Hawke. This is an example where I’m ultimately buying the Sinners mojo though Chalamet still has a stronger shot than some are giving him credit for.

WINNER: Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

Runner-Up: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

Best Supporting Actress

Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value), Amy Madigan (Weapons), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)

This one has been all over the place. The Globe went to Teyana Taylor, Amy Madigan took Critics Choice and SAG Actor, and Wunmi Mosaku grabbed BAFTA. Madigan’s performance is so singularly memorable that a win makes plenty of sense. Like Actor, I’m going with where I think the winds are blowing.

WINNER: Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners

Runner-Up: Amy Madigan, Weapons

Best Supporting Actor

Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Delroy Lindo (Sinners), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)

Like Supporting Actress, a head scratcher. Critics Choice went to Jacob Elordi with Stellan Skarsgård getting the Globe. The latter seems more probable and, yes, Sinners love could extend to Lindo. BAFTA and SAG flipped the script by going with Sean Penn who would be picking up the rare third Oscar. This is a case where Battle has the late breaking momentum.

WINNER: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

Best Original Screenplay

Blue Moon, It Was Just an Accident, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, Sinners

While most of the races above are tricky, the screenplay ones are not. Value stands the best chance at an upset but Sinners is the easy pick.

WINNER: Sinners

Runner-Up: Sentimental Value

Best Adapted Screenplay

Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Train Dreams

Repeat everything I said for Original Screenplay and replace Battle for Sinners and Hamnet for Value.

WINNER: One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Hamnet

Best International Feature Film

It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sirāt, The Voice of Hind Rajab

At one time, Accident was seen as a potential frontrunner. The competition has morphed to a showdown between Value and Agent. This could definitely go either way, but I’ll give the edge to Value achieving something with its nine nominations.

WINNER: Sentimental Value

Runner-Up: The Secret Agent

Best Animated Feature

Arco, Elio, KPop Demon Hunters, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Zootopia 2

Zootopia 2 becoming 2025’s largest grossing blockbuster right as voting was occurring cannot hurt. It’s just hard to ignore the cultural juggernaut that KPop is.

WINNER: KPop Demon Hunters

Runner-Up: Zootopia 2

Best Documentary Feature

The Alabama Solution, Come See Me in the Good Light, Cutting Through Rocks, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor

This is a category capable of surprises and I could see Alabama, Good Light, and especially BAFTA winner Putin getting called up. Neighbor got lots of attention via its Netflix release and I’ll say the true crime doc squeaks through.

WINNER: The Perfect Neighbor

Runner-Up: Mr. Nobody Against Putin

Best Casting

Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sinners

The inaugural year of the Casting contest is consists of five BP nominees and I’m going with the one I’m seledting as the winner.

WINNER: Sinners

Runner-Up: One Battle After Another

Best Cinematography

Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Train Dreams

Train Dreams has notched some precursors and is a real threat and the same logic certainly applies to Battle. Either could win. So could Sinners with that BP momentum. This is one I think Battle could manage to get and I’ll give it a slight edge over my BP selection

WINNER: One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Sinners

Best Costume Design

Avatar: Fire and Ash, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners

While we’re still wondering what Avatar is doing here, this is one of three races that Frankenstein is likely to collect.

WINNER: Frankenstein

Runner-Up: Sinners

Best Film Editing

F1, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners

F1 could zoom past the competition and Battle might be the safer bet. I’ll go with my BP pick for this one.

WINNER: Sinners

Runner-Up: One Battle After Another

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Frankenstein, Kokuho, Sinners, The Smashing Machine, The Ugly Stepsister

This is the second Frankenstein victory unless Sinners has a truly amazing evening.

WINNER: Frankenstein

Runner-Up: Sinners

Best Original Score

Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners

Sinners is anticipated to emerge here rather easily.

WINNER: Sinners

Runner-Up: One Battle After Another

Best Original Song

“Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless; “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters; “I Lied to You” from Sinners; “Sweet Dreams of Joy” from Viva Verdi!; “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams

The Sinners tune could score the upset though “Golden” should be just that.

WINNER: “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters

Runner-Up: “I Lied to You” from Sinners

Best Production Design

Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners

Frankenstein Oscar #3 expected with Sinners looming.

WINNER: Frankenstein

Runner-Up: Sinners

Best Sound

F1, Frankenstein, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Sirāt

One of the trickiest down the line categories as Sinners could absolutely prevail and a Sirāt upset is feasible. I do think the autotunes of F1 gets it by a nose.

WINNER: F1

Runner-Up: Sinners

Best Visual Effects

Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Jurassic World Rebirth, The Lost Bus, Sinners

The first two Avatar flicks nabbed VE as should the third.

WINNER: Avatar: Fire and Ash

Runner-Up: F1

That equates to these movies generating these numbers in terms of victories:

7 Wins

Sinners

4 Wins

One Battle After Another

3 Wins

Frankenstein

2 Wins

KPop Demon Hunters

1 Win

Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Hamnet, The Perfect Neighbor, Sentimental Value

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Wagner Moura in The Secret Agent

As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. The Best Actor derby’s final entrant is Wagner Moura in Kieber Mendonça Filho’s The Secret Agent. If you missed my posts covering the other leading men, they can be found here:

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Timothée Chalamet in Marty Supreme
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Leonardo DiCaprio in One Battle After Another
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Ethan Hawke in Blue Moon
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Michael B. Jordan in Sinners

Previous Acting Nominations:

None

The Case for Wagner Moura:

For the Brazilian political thriller, Moura took home the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Drama. That particular race has matched Oscar 11 out of the last 13 years. It helps that the Academy has a larger international contingent than some of the other awards bodies. The Narcos star also got the top prize at the Cannes Film Festival and was nominated at Critics Choice.

The Case Against Wagner Moura:

No nods at BAFTA or SAG Actor. For SAG Actor (which began in 1994), there has never been an Oscar winner in this lead race that wasn’t nominated there. At BAFTA, you have to go back to 2013 and Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club).

The Verdict:

Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) is the Globe winner in a Musical or Comedy while Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) picked up momentum at SAG Actor. The case for Moura is somewhat compelling but that SAG Actor stat in particular is tough to ignore. A victory is not impossible, but it would be an upset and a fairly bold pick.

My Case Of posts will continue with the last Supporting Actress to consider and that’s Teyana Taylor in One Battle After Another…

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Michael B. Jordan in Sinners

As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. Our fourth entry in the Best Actor derby is Michael B. Jordan playing the dual roles of Smoke and Stack in Ryan Coogler’s Sinners. If you missed my posts covering the first three leading men, they can be found here:

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Timothée Chalamet in Marty Supreme
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Leonardo DiCaprio in One Battle After Another
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Ethan Hawke in Blue Moon

Previous Acting Nominations:

None

The Case for Michael B. Jordan:

Last night’s Actor Awards where Jordan scored a minor upset victory after not winning previous precursors. Starring in one of two pics with a legit shot at Best Picture, Jordan’s win from the SAG branch comes at a crucial time when Academy members are actively voting. He was nominated everywhere else including at the Globes, Critics Choice, and BAFTA. It doesn’t hurt that Sinners scored a record setting 16 noms in total.

The Case Against Michael B. Jordan:

He came up short to Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) at Critics Choice and lost to Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) at the Golden Globes. Both performers are very much still in the mix and major threats to take the prize. The voters have two other chances to honor the Sinners cast via Wunmi Mosaku and Delroy Lindo in their respective supporting fields.

The Verdict:

We don’t know if Jordan’s Actor award is the knockout blow he needed. There’s little question that it upped his chances considerably.

My Case Of posts will continue with Jordan’s costar Wunmi Mosaku for Supporting Actress…

37th PGA Awards Winner Predictions

The 37th Producers Guild of America (PGA) Awards take place this Saturday and their best of prize has become a rather reliable bellwether for the Academy’s Best Picture. The two have matched 7 out of the last 8 years with 2019 being the exception when PGA chose 1917 and Oscar went with Parasite.

PGA also honors documentaries and animated features. Let’s walk through each race with a winner and runner-up selection.

Daryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures

Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Train Dreams, Weapons

PGA and the Academy have a 9 for 10 match this year. Weapons makes the cut on this list with The Secret Agent replacing it at the Oscars. This is expected to come down to Warner Bros offerings One Battle and Sinners. While I am predicting the latter to get Best Ensemble at Sunday’s Actor Awards, I still see Battle as the Oscar frontrunner and therefore am picking it here. That said, if Sinners gets this, the momentum will have shifted.

WINNER: One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Sinners

Outstanding Producer of Documentary Theatrical Motion Pictures

The Alabama Solution, Cover-Up, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, My Mom Jayne, Ocean with David Attenborough, The Perfect Neighbor, The Tale of Silyan

At BAFTA over the weekend, Nobody rose above favored The Perfect Neighbor. In this doc derby, PGA has often shown a lean toward the most high profile project and that would be Neighbor. I’ll go with it with the caveat that this category can be unpredictable.

WINNER: The Perfect Neighbor

Runner-Up: The Alabama Solution

Outstanding Producer of Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures

The Bad Guys 2, Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle, Elio, KPop Demon Hunters, Zootopia 2

I find myself tempted to go with Zootopia 2 in an upset, but I can’t bet against juggernaut KPop.

WINNER: KPop Demon Hunters

Runner-Up: Zootopia 2

79th BAFTA Winner Predictions

The 79th BAFTAs (Britain’s version of the Academy Awards) occur this Sunday and they are often a reliable precursor to what Oscar voters will do. For example, they are 8 for 8 in the past two cycles in forecasting the acting races. On the flip side, in 2022, none of the four BAFTA acting recipients took the Oscar. The previous five cycles has seen the BAFTA Best Film match with Best Picture only twice (Nomadland, Oppenheimer). In 2021, the Brits honored The Power of the Dog over CODA (which wasn’t nominated). The following year it was All Quiet on the Western Front instead of Everything Everywhere All at Once. Last year, BAFTA selected Conclave and not Anora.

That’s why it’s very tempting to go with Hamnet over arguable frontrunners One Battle After Another and Sinners in the top competition. I almost did so, but ultimately decided with roll with Battle (with a low degree of confidence). Let’s walk through each race one by one with my winner projections and a runner-up.

Best Film

Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners

WINNER: One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Hamnet

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Yorgos Lanthimos (Bugonia), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)

WINNER: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Chloé Zhao, Hamnet

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Emma Stone (Bugonia)

WINNER: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

Runner-Up: Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

Best Actor

Robert Aramayo (I Swear), Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Jesse Plemons (Bugonia)

WINNER: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

Runner-Up: Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

Best Supporting Actress

Odessa A’Zion (Marty Supreme), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Carey Mulligan (The Ballad of Wallis Island), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another), Emily Watson (Hamnet)

WINNER: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value

Best Supporting Actor

Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Peter Mullan (I Swear), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)

WINNER: Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

Runner-Up: Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another

Best Original Screenplay

I Swear, Marty Supreme, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners

WINNER: Sentimental Value

Runner-Up: Sinners

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Ballad of Wallis Island, Bugonia, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Pillion

WINNER: One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Hamnet

Outstanding British Film

28 Years Later, The Ballad of Wallis Island, Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy, Die My Love, H is for Hawk, Hamnet, I Swear, Mr Burton, Pillion, Steve

WINNER: Hamnet

Runner-Up: Pillion

Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer

The Ceremony, My Father’s Shadow, Pillion, A Want in Her, Wasteman

WINNER: Pillion

Runner-Up: My Father’s Shadow

Best Film Not in the English Language

It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sirāt, The Voice of Hind Rajab

WINNER: Sentimental Value

Runner-Up: The Secret Agent

Best Animated Film

Elio, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Zootopia 2

WINNER: Zootopia 2

Runner-Up: Little Amélie or the Character of Rain

Best Children’s & Family Film

Arco, Boong, Lilo & Stitch, Zootopia 2

WINNER: Zootopia 2

Runner-Up: Arco

Best Documentary

2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Cover-Up, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor

WINNER: 2000 Meters to Andrivka

Runner-Up: The Perfect Neighbor

Best Casting

I Swear, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners

WINNER: Sentimental Value

Runner-Up: One Battle After Another

Best Cinematography

Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Train Dreams

WINNER: One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Sinners

Best Costume Design

Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners, Wicked: For Good

WINNER: Frankenstein

Runner-Up: Hamnet

Best Editing

F1, A House of Dynamite, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners

WINNER: F1

Runner-Up: One Battle After Another

Best Make Up & Hair

Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners, Wicked: For Good

WINNER: Frankenstein

Runner-Up: Wicked: For Good

Best Original Score

Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners

WINNER: Sinners

Runner-Up: Hamnet

Best Production Design

Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners

WINNER: Frankenstein

Runner-Up: Hamnet

Best Sound

F1, Frankenstein, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Warfare

WINNER: F1

Runner-Up: Sinners

Best Special Visual Effects

Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Frankenstein, How to Train Your Dragon, The Lost Bus

WINNER: Avatar: Fire and Ash

Runner-Up: F1

That adds up to these movies generating numbers of victories:

5 Wins

One Battle After Another

4 Wins

Sentimental Value

3 Wins

Frankenstein

2 Wins

F1, Hamnet, Zootopia 2

1 Win

2000 Meters to Andrivka, Avatar: Fire and Ash, Marty Supreme, Pillion, Sinners

I’ll have a recap up Sunday with how I performed and my thoughts on how it might impact the Oscars…

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Sentimental Value

As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten Best Picture contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. We have arrived at the eighth horse in the BP derby and that’s Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value. If you missed my posts covering the previous nominees, you can find them here:

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Bugonia
Oscar Nominations: The Case of F1
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Frankenstein
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Hamnet
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Marty Supreme
Oscar Nominations: The Case of One Battle After Another
Oscar Nominations: The Case of The Secret Agent

The Case for Sentimental Value:

The Norwegian drama has been on the Academy’s radar since it took home the Grand Prix (the prize for 2nd) at the Cannes Film Festival in May. It scored a better than anticipated nine nods including four of its cast members -Renate Reinsve in lead Actress, Elle Fanning and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass in Supporting Actress, and Stellan Skarsgård in Supporting Actor plus Trier’s direction and original screenplay with Eskil Vogt. The other two mentions are for Film Editing and International Feature Film. It also nabbed BP noms at BAFTA, the Globes, and Critics Choice.

The Case Against Sentimental Value:

In addition to no BP victories at the already aired ceremonies, it has fallen short to The Secret Agent at the Globes and Critics Choice in the foreign field. Value also blanked at the SAG Actor awards. Only one Oscar winner (1995’s Braveheart) has been zeroed out by SAG previously.

The Verdict:

The overperformance of nine noms arguably makes it the favorite over Agent for International Feature Film and Skarsgård (fresh off a Globe win) is considered the frontrunner in his race. Though it could be in the top half of the 10 contenders, Value is not a real threat for the trophy.

My Case Of posts will continue with Sinners…

Oscar Nominations: The Case of The Secret Agent

As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. We have arrived at the seventh movie in the big dance and that’s The Secret Agent from Kleber Mendonça Filho. If you missed my posts covering the previous nominees, you can find them here:

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Bugonia
Oscar Nominations: The Case of F1
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Frankenstein
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Hamnet
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Marty Supreme
Oscar Nominations: The Case of One Battle After Another

The Case for The Secret Agent:

Filho’s Brazilian political thriller has become a late bloomer in awards season even though it picked up traction last summer at Cannes where it won Actor (Wagner Moura) and director prizes. Agent was still seen as behind Sentimental Value and It Was Just An Accident in International Feature Film, but then it took the foreign prizes at Critics Choice and the Globes. In addition to BP and the International race, Moura is in for lead Actor and it is up for Casting.

The Case Against The Secret Agent:

Note that in the Case for, I never spoke of it being in serious contention for Best Picture. The four nominations are tied for the lowest of the BP hopefuls with three others. It missed key nods in director and screenplay and other tech categories that usually correlate to a victory. Agent underperformed at BAFTA with only two nominations.

The Verdict:

With Value having an impressive Oscar morning, Agent could fall short in IFF and come up empty-handed at the ceremony. It is not a threat for BP.

My Case Of posts will continue with Sentimental Value…