99th Academy Awards Predictions: July 5th Edition

Happy 250th birthday weekend, America! And what better way to celebrate than with fresh Oscar predictions now that we’ve surpassed the midway point of 2026. That means I’m expanding my forecasts from 8 categories (Picture, Director, the four acting derbies, the two screenplays contests) to all 21 races covering feature-length motion pictures.

This is the first glimpse at how many overall nominations I believe the hopefuls will generate. It arrives approximately two months before the fall festival season (Venice, Toronto, Telluride) kicks into gear. That trio of fests will undoubtedly alter the landscape of contenders and pretenders.

When I do my next predictions, Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey will be out. We will have a much better ide whether it deserves the perch atop Best Picture and Director and elsewhere. As soon as reviews drop, look for my individual Oscar Predictions post with the next full update likely arriving on July 19th.

I’ve put Inde Navarrette’s work in Obsession back in lead Actress as opposed to Supporting Actress. The studio could place it in either as we await word on their strategy. As of now, I feel her performance could materialize in both races. I’m also placing all performers from The Black Ball in supporting until that is clarified.

I’m keeping my BP listings at 25 and the seven top line races that I’ve previously covered at 15 possibilities. For the other competitions, I am listing 10 possibilities.

Let’s get to it, shall we?

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Digger (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)

6. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Debut (PR: 7) (E)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)

9. Obsession (PR: 9) (E)

10. Cry to Heaven (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. All of a Sudden (PR: 14) (+3)

12. Behemoth! (PR: 16) (+4)

13. The Social Reckoning (PR: 12) (-1)

14. A Place in Hell (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 13) (-2)

16. Fatherland (PR: 15) (-1)

17. The Invite (PR: 17) (E)

18. Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)

19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (E)

20. Disclosure Day (PR: 20) (E)

21. Michael (PR: 24) (+3)

22. Josephine (PR: 21) (-1)

23. Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)

24. Jack of Spades (PR: 22) (-2)

25. Werwulf (PR: 18) (-7)

Dropped Out:

Saturn Return

Club Kid

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 3) (E)

4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)

5. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (E)

7. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 7) (E)

8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (E)

11. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Chloe Domont, A Place in Hell (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (-1)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 1) (E)

2. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 2) (E)

3. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 3) (E)

4. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting Actress

5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 7) (-4)

12. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)

14. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Penélope Cruz, Bunker

Zendaya, The Drama

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 4) (E)

5. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 7) (+1)

7. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (E)

9. Andrew Garfield, Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 10) (E)

11. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: 13) (E)

14. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Javier Bardem, The Beloved (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Guitarricadelafuente, The Black Ball – moved to Supporting Actor

Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three

Hanns Zischler, Fatherland

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 10) (+7)

4. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 11) (E)

12. Halle Bailey, The Debut (PR: 12) (E)

13. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 13) (E)

14. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Inde Navarrette, Obsession (moved to lead Actress)

Gemma Chan, Josephine

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (E)

5. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 6) (E)

7. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)

8. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 13) (+4)

10. James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 8) (-4)

13. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Guittaricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from lead Actor

15. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 10) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Milo Quifes, The Black Ball

Miguel Bernardeau, The Black Ball

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Debut (PR: 3) (E)

4. Fjord (PR: 4) (E)

5. Obsession (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Behemoth! (PR: 7) (+1)

7. A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Club Kid (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Jack of Spades (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Primetime (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Fatherland (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Josephine (PR: 11) (-3)

15. The Drama (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Saturn Return

Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Invite (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cry to Heaven (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Being Heumann (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Prima Facie (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Wildwood (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Minotaur (PR: 13) (-1)

15. A Long Winter (PR: 14) (-1)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball

2. Fjord

3. All of a Sudden

4. Minotuar

5. Coward

Other Possibilities:

6. Fatherland

7. Possible Love

8. Mimesis

9. Rose

10. The Beloved

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wildwood

2. Toy Story 5

3. Ray Gunn

4. Tangles

5. Hoppers

Other Possibilities:

6. In Waves

7. Forgotten Island

8. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom

9. Iron Boy

10. Minions & Monsters

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem

2. Nuisance Bear

3. To Hold a Mountain

4. The History of Concrete

5. When a Witness Recants

Other Possibilities:

6. American Doctor

7. One in a Million

8. Time and Water

9. Rehearsals for a Revolution

10. Everybody to Kenmure Street

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey

2. The Black Ball

3. Wild Horse Nine

4. Digger

5. Michael

Other Possibilities:

6. Fjord

7. The Debut

8. Dune: Part Three

9. Cry to Heaven

10. Behemoth!

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey

2. Project Hail Mary

3. Dune: Part Three

4. The Black Ball

5. Digger

Other Possibilities:

6. Cry to Heaven

7. Fatherland

8. Werwulf

9. Disclosure Day

10. Jack of Spades

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey

2. The Black Ball

3. Sense and Sensibility

4. Cry to Heaven

5. Dune: Part Three

Other Possibilities:

6. Werwulf

7. The Devil Wears Prada 2

8. Jack of Spades

9. Wuthering Heights

10. I Love Boosters

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey

2. The Black Ball

3. Digger

4. Project Hail Mary

5. Wild Horse Nine

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three

7. Cry to Heaven

8. Fjord

9. Obsession

10. Behemoth!

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Digger

2. Werwulf

3. The Odyssey

4. Clayface

5. Michael

Other Possibilities:

6. The Black Ball

7. Dune: Part Three

8. Cry to Heaven

9. The Bride!

10. Madden

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey

2. The Black Ball

3. Project Hail Mary

4. Disclosure Day

5. Cry to Heaven

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three

7. Digger

8. Wild Horse Nine

9. Wildwood

10. The Social Reckoning

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5

2. TBD from The Black Ball

3. TBD from The Debut

4. “La Playa” from The Black Ball

5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad

Other Possibilities:

6. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2

7. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights

8. TBD from Hexed

9. “Save the Day” from Hoppers

10. TBD from The Rivals of Amziah King

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey

2. Project Hail Mary

3. Dune: Part Three

4. The Black Ball

5. Cry to Heaven

Other Possibilities:

6. Digger

7. Werwulf

8. Jack of Spades

9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth

10. Backrooms

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three

2. The Odyssey

3. Project Hail Mary

4. The Black Ball

5. Michael

Other Possibilities:

6. Disclosure Day

7. Cry to Heaven

8. Digger

9. Werwulf

10. Obsession

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three

2. Project Hail Mary

3. The Odyssey

4. Godzilla Minus Zero

5. Whalefall

Other Possibilities:

6. Avengers: Doomsday

7. Disclosure Day

8. Wildwood

9. The End of Oak Street

10. The Sheep Detectives

And that works out to my inaugural tally showing these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

14 Nominations

The Black Ball, The Odyssey

10 Nominations

Digger, White Horse Nine

9 Nominations

Project Hail Mary

6 Nominations

Dune: Part Three, Fjord

5 Nominations

The Debut

4 Nominations

Cry to Heaven

3 Nominations

Michael, Obsession

2 Nominations

All of a Sudden, A Place in Hell, Toy Story 5

1 Nomination

Clayface, Coward, Disclosure Day, Godzilla Minus Zero, The History of Concrete, Hoppers, The Invite, Minotaur, Nuisance Bear, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, Power Ballad, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Tangles, To Hold a Mountain, Werwulf, Whalefall, When a Witness Recants. Wildwood

99th Academy Awards Predictions: April 19th Edition

Barely a month beyond the 98th edition of the Academy Awards, we have arrived at my first ranked predictions for the 99th ceremony. We begin with six major categories – Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies.

I gave you my first ranked glimpses for the previous telecast around the same time last year in these same races. How did that impossibly early forecast turn out? I correctly called four of the eventual ten BP nominees with Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, and Sinners. Winner One Battle After Another as well as Bugonia, F1, and Frankenstein were listed in Other Possibilities. So 80% of the BP contenders were identified with The Secret Agent and Train Dreams not being mentioned in April 2025.

In Best Director, three of the five filmmakers were predicted: Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), and Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value). Statue recipient Paul Thomas Anderson from One Battle and Chloé Zhao (Hamnet) were in Other Possibilities.

As for Best Actress, Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) swept the season and was in my predicted quintet. So was Sentimental Value‘s Renate Reinsve while Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You) and Emma Stone (Bugonia) were in Other Possibilities. Only Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue) wasn’t listed. In Best Actor, Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) was in my quintet. Three others – winner Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), and Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) were Other Possibilities with Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) as the sole thespian not identified.

My projected Supporting Actress five rightly named Teyana Taylor (One Battle) with Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) as a possibility. Fanning’s costar Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Wumni Mosaku (Sinners), and the victorious Amy Madigan (Weapons) were not found among my possibilities. In Supporting Actor, Stellan Skarsgård from Value was in my five with winner Sean Penn (One Battle) and Delroy Lindo (Sinners) as possibilities. Battle‘s Benicio del Toro and Frankenstein‘s Jacob Elordi were not to be found yet.

Let’s get some caveats out of the way. Some of the performers listed in lead will end up in supporting and vice versa. As an example, I figured Paul Mescal (Hamnet) would go lead for that film last year, but he was slotted in supporting. He ended up not being nominated but likely came close. For instance in this year’s listings, I don’t know if Sam Rockwell will be lead or supporting for Wild Horse Nine but my hunch says the latter at press time. The distributor will eventually clear that up.

We will see pictures push to 2027. When I did my initial projections a year ago for 2025, Michael and The Rivals of Amziah King were thought to be releases for that calendar frame. Both are being put out in ’26. I have Michael still as a potential nominee in some competitions. Not so at this time for Rivals.

And now the most important forewarning. Some movies you find below will turn out to be non-contenders. My inaugural look at the 98th Oscars listed Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt at #1 in Best Picture, Director, Actress (Julia Roberts), #4 in Supporting Actress (Ayo Edebiri), and #2 in Supporting Actor (Andrew Garfield). After its Venice festival premiere, the mixed to negative reaction drastically changed its narrative. It ended up with zero nominations. My April 2025 #1’s in the supporting fields – Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good) and Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly) – did not make final cut either.

So take this speculation as what it is – speculative. The picture and Best Picture will become clearer in time. That said, a reminder that 80% of the BP nominees were mentioned a year ago in addition to 100% of the directors and 80% of the lead acting hopefuls could be found in the initial post. On the flip side, nearly all of my acting picks for a nomination are coming from projected BP nominees and the percentage probably won’t be quite that high.

When Sinners came out last year, it was a box office juggernaut with widespread critical acclaim. Yet I wondered whether the spring release could mean it would fall by the wayside months down the line. That’s why I named it in Other Possibilities for Picture, Director, Actor, and Supporting Actor. What happened months down the line? A record-setting 16 nominations with Jordan winning Actor. I won’t make the same mistake with Project Hail Mary. It has been out for weeks and already looks like a strong contender in Picture, Director, Actor, and possibly Supporting Actress. Another note – it’s not often (or maybe ever) you see a performer mentioned four times. That’s the case at the moment with the busy Sandra Hüller who is a legit threat twice in lead Actress and supporting.

You can expect these posts to hit the blog every couple of weeks until it becomes weekly. This should occur when festival season goes into overdrive in last summer/early fall.

BEST PICTURE

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey

2. Project Hail Mary

3. Wild Horse Nine

4. Digger

5. Fjord

6. No One Cares

7. All of a Sudden

8. Fatherland

9. The Social Reckoning

10. Dune: Part Three

Other Possibilities:

11. Narnia: The Magican’s Nephew

12. A Place in Hell

13. A Long Winter

14. The Entertainment System is Down

15. Being Heumann

16. Cry to Heaven

17. Josephine

18. Werwulf

19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth

20. Michael

21. Paper Tiger

22. Saturn Return

23. Sense and Sensibility

24. Jack of Spades

25. Behemoth!

BEST DIRECTOR

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey

2. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger

3. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary

4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine

5. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord

Other Possibilities:

6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden

7. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland

8. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares

9. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three

10. Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

11. Ruben Östlund, The Entertainment System is Down

12. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven

13. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning

14. Robert Eggers, Werwulf

15. David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

BEST ACTRESS

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord

2. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning

3. Julianne Moore, No One Cares

4. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland

5. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell

Other Possibilities:

6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden

7. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann

8. Mason Reeves, Josephine

9. Sophie Okenedo, Clarissa

10. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie

11. Sandra Hüller, Rose

12. Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police

13. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return

14. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility

15. Amy Adams, At the Sea

BEST ACTOR

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary

3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine

4. Sebastian Stan, Fjord

5. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland

Other Possibilities:

6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey

7. Robert Aramayo, I Swear

8. Dominic Sessa, Tony

9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven

10. Jafaar Jackson, Michael

11. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three

12. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

13. Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

14. Charles Melton, Saturn Return

15. John Turturro, The Only Pickpocket Living in New York

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Predicted Nominees:

1. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine

2. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine

3. Halle Bailey, No One Cares

4. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey

5. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden

Other Possibilities:

6. Sandra Hüller, Digger

7. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell

8.. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary

9. Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter

10. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger

11. Wunmi Mosaku, The Social Reckoning

12. Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down

13. Gemma Chan, Josephine

14. Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades

15. Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares

2. John Goodman, Digger

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine

4. Colman Domingo, Michael

5. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning

Other Possibilities:

6. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine

7. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell

8. Tom Holland, The Odyssey

9. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann

10. D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai, A Long Winter

11. Jesse Plemons, Digger

12. Channing Tatum, Josephine

13. David Oyelowo, Clarissa

14. Daniel Brühl, The Entertainment System is Down

15. Riz Ahmed, Digger

98th Academy Awards: The State of the Best Picture Race (October Edition)

As October draws to a close, it’s time for a deep dive into the Best Picture race with two months left in the release calendar. I’ve done the same with the directing competition and the four acting derbies. If you missed those write-ups over the past few days, you can access them here:

98th Academy Awards: The State of the Best Director Race (October Edition)

98th Academy Awards: The State of the Best Actress Race (October Edition)

98th Academy Awards: The State of the Best Actor Race (October Edition)

98th Academy Awards: The State of the Supporting Actress Race (October Edition)

98th Academy Awards: The State of the Supporting Actor Race (October Edition)

I published my first preview of the Best Picture field on April 17th. In that post, I listed my initial predictions for the 10 BP hopefuls along with 15 other possibilities . At that impossibly early stage of the game, my selections were:

After the Hunt

Avatar: Fire and Ash

Hamnet

Jay Kelly

The Life of Chuck

Marty Supreme

No Other Choice

The Rivals of Amziah King

Sentimental Value

Wicked: For Good

Other Possibilities:

Alpha

Ballad of a Small Player

Bugonia

Die, My Love

Frankenstein

Highest 2 Lowest

Kiss of the Spider Woman

Materialists

Michael

One Battle After Another

Sinners

The Smashing Machine

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

The Testament of Ann Lee

Let’s dispense with the movies that are no longe viable. The Rivals of Amziah King and Michael will be 2026 releases. The following titles did not get solid enough reviews, box office, or a combo of both to truly be threats: After the Hunt (which I initially had ranked at #1 back in the spring), The Life of Chuck, (despite winning the 2024 Audience Award at the Toronto Film Festival), Alpha, Ballad of a Small Player, Die, My Love (though Jennifer Lawrence could contend in Actress), F1 (which was a critically appreciated hit and could nab some tech nods), Highest 2 Lowest, Kiss of the Spider Woman (perhaps Jennifer Lopez can sneak in Supporting Actress), Materialists, and The Smashing Machine.

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere and The Testament of Ann Lee aren’t dead in the water, but the former is a sizable box office disappointment with some less than stellar reviews and the latter is perhaps too divisive. Their leads Jeremy Allen White and Amanda Seyfried have healthier chances in the lead acting contests.

So let’s get into the 11 of the 25 aforementioned titles that do still have a decent chance and a few others worthy of mention.

The soft frontrunner appears to be Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another with its multiple acting contenders and some of the highest critical praise of the year. Even though it disappointed a bit at the box office, the Cinemascore grade of A indicates it would be a satisfactory audience choice for voters to select. Plus PTA is generally seen as overdue for Academy affection.

Its biggest competition could be Hamnet from Chloé Zhao, who picked up a directorial prize and a BP win for 2020’s Nomadland. History could repeat five years later for her heralded historical drama.

I’m also confident that Ryan Coogler’s Sinners, the vampiric financial smash from the spring, will be remembered on BP ballots even though horror flicks often have a hard time breaking through. This should be a welcome exception.

Joachim Trier’s family drama Sentimental Value is a festival darling that has enough goodwill to make the BP cut.

Two upcoming releases have their review embargoes intact but have screened to encouraging word-of-mouth: Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme (where Timothée Chalamet appears to be a Best Actor favorite) and Wicked: For Good, part two to Wicked which garnered BP and other nominations last year. Both should find themselves among the ten.

That’s six pics (One Battle After Another, Hamnet, Sinners, Sentimental Value, Marty Supreme, Wicked: For Good) that I’m confident are in. Twelve others are jockeying for the four additional slots.

I’ve had Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein in and out of my lineup at various times. I’m becoming more convinced it could be Netflix’s best chance in BP.

An argument could easily be made that the streamer’s Jay Kelly from Noah Baumbach is their strongest horse with its Hollywood friendly storyline. Some reviews have been lukewarm, but I still am leaning toward it placing in the 10.

To close the Netflix loop, Train Dreams has its ardent admirers and I wouldn’t totally discount it. Kathryn Bigelow’s A House of Dynamite seems to be fizzling a tad due to some ambivalent audience reaction, but a rebound is not out of the question.

Avatar: Fire and Ash looks to follow in the footsteps of its two predecessors. Having it in or near the selected 10 seems like a smart move but screenings will soon tell the tale.

Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just an Accident from Neon took the Palme d’Or at Cannes and I’m increasingly confident it’ll be an international contender in its own race and BP (like Neon’s Sentimental Value).

The Secret Agent (Neon) and No Other Choice (Neon) could accomplish the same dual noms though it’s rare for more than two international submissions to get into the big dance. And not every Neon distributed foreign title can make the list… can they?

Bugonia from Yorgos Lanthimos may be a touch too oddball for BP though I’d be careful to dismiss the latest from The Favourite and Poor Things maker.

Richard Linklater’s has had an impressive year with Blue Moon and Nouvelle Vague though I’m guessing neither are real threats.

Finally, Song Sung Blue (out Christmas) is said to be a crowdpleaser and Kate Hudson is a possibility in Best Actress. A Musical/Comedy BP spot at the Globes seems more feasible than Academy love.

Keep an eye on the blog with updated rankings on BP and all other feature film races hitting shortly!

98th Academy Awards: The State of the Best Director Race (October Edition)

Instead of writing a full update on my Oscar predictions this week, I’m doing a deep dive on the six highest profile races: Picture, Director and the four acting derbies. All four acting contests have been covered. If you missed my write-ups on them, they are linked here:

98th Academy Awards: The State of the Best Actress Race (October Edition)

98th Academy Awards: The State of the Best Actor Race (October Edition)

98th Academy Awards: The State of the Supporting Actress Race (October Edition)

98th Academy Awards: The State of the Supporting Actor Race (October Edition)

I published my first preview of the directing field on April 12th. In that post, I listed my initial predictions for the quintet along with ten other possibilities. At that impossibly early stage of the game, my selections were:

Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice

Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt

Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King

Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme

Chloé Zhao, Hamnet

Other Possibilities:

Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly

Edward Berger, Ballad of a Small Player

James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash

Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good

Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein

Mike Flanagan, The Life of Chuck

Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia

Spike Lee, Highest 2 Lowest

Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value

The 5 eventual nominees could be found among those 15 possibilities. However, we can be confident some won’t make it in. For Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King seems to be a 2026 release. After the Hunt was a commercial and critical disappointment and Luca Guadagnino appears to be a non-factor. The out of contention status also applies to Edward Berger, Mike Flanagan, and Spike Lee.

Let’s get into the others and other names not raised back in April. Both Josh Safdie and Chloé Zhao’s movies are probable safe bets for BP. They could certainly come along for the ride. I’m slightly more confident in Zhao contending for her second trophy after winning in 2020 for Nomadland though Safdie is definitely viable in his solo behind the camera effort.

Park Chan-wook’s fortunes should be tied to whether No Other Choice makes BP and I keep going back and forth on that. The same could be said Noah Baumbach, Jon M. Chu, Guillermo del Toro, and Yorgos Lanthimos. Their respective features Jay Kelly, Wicked: For Good (as yet unseen), Frankenstein, and Bugonia are all on the BP bubble. Same goes for the unmentioned A House of Dynamite and Kathryn Bigelow.

Even if Avatar: Fire and Ash gets into BP, I’m skeptical James Cameron is in unless the third franchise entry as universally seen as the best. We’ll know that in a few weeks.

Sentimental Value is not on the bubble. Its ticket is likely punched and that could benefit Joachim Trier for a first nomination though I don’t believe his nom is assured as the movie’s.

Who is assured? Paul Thomas Anderson. One Battle is your soft frontrunner for BP and this is a golden opportunity for the Academy to honor PTA for this and his overall body of work.

I also think Ryan Coogler (Sinners) is in for his vampire epic which is the other Warner Bros title vying for BP alongside One Battle.

A pair of foreign filmmakers could vie for a slot – Jafar Panahi (It Was Just an Accident) and Kieber Mendonça Filho (The Secret Agent). Their fortunes are also tied to BP inclusion and I feel the latter has a stronger pathway.

In conclusion, I feel safe with PTA, Coogler, and Zhao RSVP’d for the directorial dance. The other two noms could be filled by plenty of names above. My in-depth posts on the six biggest categories will conclude with Best Picture!

98th Academy Awards: The State of the Best Actor Race (October Edition)

Instead of writing a full update on my Oscar predictions this week, I’m doing a deep dive on the six highest profile races: Picture, Director and the four acting derbies. It began with Supporting Actor and Actress and continues today with Best Actor. If you missed my write-up on the supporting players, you can find them here:

98th Academy Awards: The State of the Supporting Actress Race (October Edition)

98th Academy Awards: The State of the Supporting Actor Race (October Edition)

I published my first preview of the lead Actor field on April 8th. In that post, I listed my initial predictions for the quintet of hopefuls along with ten other possibilities. At that impossibly early stage of the game, my selections were:

Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

George Clooney, Jay Kelly

Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King

Paul Mescal, Hamnet

Jeremy Allen White, Deliver Me from Nowhere

Other Possibilities:

Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice

Willem Dafoe, Late Fame

Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone

Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another

Colin Farrell, Ballad of a Small Player

Jaafar Jackson, Michael

Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine

Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus

Jesse Plemons, Bugonia

Andrew Scott, Pressure

Let’s dispense with the easy subtractions, shall we? The Rivals of Amziah King with Matthew McConaughey seems more likely to release in 2026. Same goes for Jaafar Jackson in Michael and Andrew Scott in Pressure. Paul Mescal (Hamnet) will contend in Supporting Actor where I am predicting him to get a nomination.

The reviews and buzz simply doesn’t exist for Colin Farrell in Ballad of a Small Player or McConaughey in The Lost Bus. Same for Willem Dafoe in Late Fame though a surprise Globe or SAG or Critics Choice nod could make him a remote possibility. I would say the same logic applies to Lee Byung-hun for No Other Choice and Dwayne Johnson in The Smashing Machine. For the latter, subpar box office doesn’t help his chances which were once seen as rock solid.

Beyond the names above, there’s a slew of once promising contenders who have fizzled out for one reason or another. It includes Denzel Washington (Highest 2 Lowest), Will Arnett (Is This Thing On?), Brendan Fraser (Rental Family), and Oscar Isaac (Frankenstein). I don’t expect to see their names among the nominees.

So let’s discuss who I think is truly in the mix and it’s ten actors. Half will make the cut and half will not. There could be 11 via the soon to be screened Song Sung Blue with Hugh Jackman though Kate Hudson is rumored to be the awards play from that one.

From my first ranked predictions in April, I’ve had Timothée Chalamet in the #1 spot after he was probably the runner-up for Actor last year to Adrian Brody (The Brutalist) for his embodiment of Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown. The review embargo is still intact for December’s Marty Supreme, but early word-of-mouth indicates the top ranking is justified and I don’t see that changing anytime soon.

Jeremy Allen White’s portrayal of The Boss in Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere is out tonight. His nomination seems more probable than not even though the pic itself is a question mark in BP.

George Clooney as Jay Kelly is more of an unknown as the movie has its ardent supporters and some detractors. If Kelly gets into BP, it significantly increases his odds.

Daniel Day-Lewis, a three-time winner, could get in just because he’s Daniel Day-Lewis. However, Anemone drew mixed reactions and was a non-entity at the box office.

Other than Chalamet, the performer I’m most confident makes the quintet is Leonardo DiCaprio for One Battle After Another. He’s a threat to take gold if the aforementioned competition fizzles out in the potential BP frontrunner.

Like Clooney, Jesse Plemons would benefit from Bugonia sneaking into BP. A better than currently expected performance from the film could grant him admission.

Blue Moon is a long shot for BP, but voters could still make room for veteran Ethan Hawke. He’d be vying for his third overall nom after supporting recognition for Training Day and Boyhood.

Train Dreams is also probably not on track for BP though Joel Edgerton has a so-so chance of getting in if other awards branches or critics groups bring him up.

Sinners, on the other hand, is a surefire hopeful in the big dance and Michael B. Jordan could get swept in for his dual role in the smash hit.

Wagner Moura was Best Actor at Cannes for The Secret Agent and I’m starting to believe his odds are increasing.

So there you have it. I think Chalamet and DiCaprio have punched their tickets with White close to doing the same unless Springsteen is a notable flop. The other seven are vying for slots four and five. My in-depth look at these high profile categories will continue with Best Actress!

98th Academy Awards: The State of the Supporting Actress Race (October Edition)

Instead of writing a full update on my Oscar predictions this week, I’m doing a deep dive on the six highest profile races: Picture, Director and the four acting derbies. It began with Supporting Actor and continues today with Supporting Actress. If you missed my write-up on Supporting Actor, you can find it here:

98th Academy Awards: The State of the Supporting Actor Race (October Edition)

I published my first preview of the Supporting Actress field on April 6th. In that post, I listed my initial predictions for the quintet of hopefuls along with ten other possibilities. At that impossibly early stage of the game, my selections were:

Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt

Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good

Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King

Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme

Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

Let’s dispense with a couple of those names. Angelina LookingGlass’s heralded work in The Rivals of Amziah King has not been scheduled for 2025. At this point, I’m assuming it will come out in 2026.

After the Hunt has lost its awards luster after a poor commercial and critical reaction. While her costar Julia Roberts may have a long shot chance at making the Actress cut, I don’t see the same for Edebiri.

The other three names are very much viable. Ariana Grande was nominated last year as Glinda the Good Witch and was probably runner-up to Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez). While For Good has yet to screen, it stands to reason that she could make a return to the lineup. I’ve had her ranked first the whole year and we’ll see if that remains when word-of-mouth comes in.

Teyana Taylor’s performance dominates the first third of One Battle After Another (arguably the BP frontrunner). That should be enough for her to be the most likely Supporting Actor nominee in the film and we’ll get to Regina Hall shortly.

Gwyneth Paltrow is not a guaranteed competitor like her costar Timothée Chalamet is in lead actor. However, her work in Marty Supreme is definitely viable in this unformed race. The same could be said for her costar Odessa A’Zion though I’d put Paltrow ahead.

My 10 other possibilities that I listed back in April are:

Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine

Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

Laura Dern, Jay Kelly

Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value

America Ferrera, The Lost Bus

Regina Hall, One Battle After Another

Greta Lee, Late Fame

Nia Long, Michael

Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman

Emily Watson, Hamnet

Let’s start with Regina Hall. When it was announced that Chase Infiniti would compete in lead Actress for Battle, it opened the door for Hall. I maintain that she’s behind her costar Taylor. I currently have her on the outside looking in, but wouldn’t be surprised if she hears her name called. In the 21st century, we’ve seen double nominees in this category 10 out of 25 times. The last example was 2022 when Jamie Lee Curtis won for Everything Everywhere All at Once while her cast mate Stephanie Hsu was also up. The other times were as follows:

2000: Frances McDormand and Kate Hudson, Almost Famous

2001: Helen Mirren and Maggie Smith, Gosford Park

2002: Catherine Zeta-Jones (winner) and Queen Latifah, Chicago

2006: Adriana Barraza and Rinko Kikuchi, Babel

2008: Amy Adams and Viola Davis, Doubt

2009: Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air

2010: Melissa Leo (winner) and Amy Adams, The Fighter

2011: Octavia Spencer (winner) and Jessica Chastain, The Help

2018: Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Another possibility of two nominees from the same pictures lies with Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) and her costar Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass. The former seems marginally more likely but Lilleass is absolutely a threat to make the quintet.

A third possibility of two actresses from one feature is Wunmi Mosaku and Hailee Steinfeld from Sinners. That’s a more remote possibility and the film would really have to over perform for either to get in.

Back to those 10 other possibilities. Michael was pushed to 2026 so there goes Nia Long. Laura Dern, America Ferrera, Greta Lee and Emily Watson are all long shots at best after their movies screened. For Dern and Watson, they could see some of their costars nominated.

Emily Blunt could factor in if she manages SAG or Critics Choice or a Globe nod. Yet The Smashing Machine was a major box office flop and that doesn’t help. The same logic applies to Jennifer Lopez for Kiss of the Spider Woman.

Glenn Close is arguably considered the best thespian who hasn’t won an Oscar despite eight attempts. That could help her cause in Rian Johnon’s latest murder mystery, but none of the actors from Knives Out and Glass Onion made it despite respective buzz for Ana de Armas and Janelle Monae.

One name not on my radar in April was Amy Madigan in Weapons. The summer sleeper gave the veteran actress an unforgettably creepy role that should inspire many a Halloween costume next week. I’m starting to really think she could find herself in the quintet.

So there you have it, readers! I would say Grande, Taylor, Fanning, Lilleass, Madigan, Paltrow and Hall are the seven likeliest contestants with potential surprises including Close, Lopez, Blunt and Mosaku. I will zone in on Best Actor in the next write-up!

98th Academy Awards Predictions: September 23rd Edition

We are now in the fall season of serious prognosticating as a huge portion of Oscar hopefuls have already screened courtesy of Venice, Telluride and Toronto. As discussed in my previous update on September 13th, the biggest story of the month didn’t come from those festivals. It came via Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another which opens this Friday. Greeted with rapturous reviews, Another vaulted to 1st in my Best Picture, Director and Adapted Screenplay rankings with Teyana Taylor and Sean Penn joining my projected acting quintets in the supporting fields. However, ten days ago, I’d yet to include Leonardo DiCaprio in the Best Actor five. Now I am and that’s at the expense of George Clooney (Jay Kelly). This is a major swing as Leo rises 5 spots while Clooney falls 4.

We also have a change in the BP ten with Park Chan-wook’s No Other Choice entering and Avatar: Fire and Ash on the outside looking in. The director line-up remains the same though I came close to putting Chan-wook in.

In Supporting Actor, Delroy Lindo (Sinners) is out of the lineup with Jeremy Strong (Springsteen) back in. In Supporting Actress, Gwyneth Paltrow’s work in Marty Supreme reenters with Emily Blunt (The Smashing Machine) dipping.

As I did around the same time in 2024, I’m condensing my projections. Instead of 25 possibilities in BP, it shrinks to 15. In all other fields, I’m now listing 10. The next big happening that could impact my forecasts is the New York Film Festival. Starting Friday, NYFF will provide first looks at Anemone with Daniel Day-Lewis and Bradley Cooper’s Is This Thing On?

You can read all the movement beyond Mr. DiCaprio’s elevation below.

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Hamnet (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)

7. Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)

8. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (-2)

10. No Other Choice (PR: 15) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

11. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Frankenstein (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 12) (-1)

14. A House of Dynamite (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Rental Family (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

The Secret Agent

The Testament of Ann Lee

The Rivals of Amziah King

Blue Moon

Is This Thing On?

Anemone

The Voice of Hind Rajib

After the Hunt

Weapons

Father Mother Sister Brother

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 11) (+5)

7. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good

Noam Baumbach, Jay Kelly

Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent

Kaouther Ben Hania, The Voice of Hind Rajib

Mona Fastvold, The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)

2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)

5. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 6) (E)

7. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Sydney Sweeney, Christy (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue

Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby

June Squibb, Eleanor the Great

Emma Mackey, Ella McCay

Lucy Liu, Rosemead

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (+5)

3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)

4. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (-4)

7. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 11) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Brendan Fraser, Rental Family

Hugh Jackman, Song Sung Blue

Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King

Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice

Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (E)

4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

5. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (+4)

8. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family

Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners

Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King

Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt

Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Miles Caton, Sinners

Andrew Scott, Blue Moon

Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Sean Bean, Anemone

Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On?

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)

5. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rental Family (PR: 6) (E)

7. Sorry, Baby (PR: 7) (E)

8. Blue Moon (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (-1)

10. A House of Dynamite (PR: 11) (+1)

Dropped Out:

Weapons

If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

The Testament of Ann Lee

After the Hunt

Father Mother Sister Brother

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)

4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)

7. Is This Thing On? (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Train Dreams (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Life of Chuck

Highest 2 Lowest

Nouvelle Vague

The Smashing Machine

Hedda

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)

3. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Secret Agent (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Voice of Hind Rajib (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sirât (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Sound of Falling (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 6) (-2)

9. The President’s Cake (PR: 9) (E)

10. My Father’s Shadow (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Love That Remains

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Arco (PR: 3) (E)

4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Elio (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Magnificent Life (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Scarlet (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 9) (+1)

9. In Your Dreams (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Animal Farm (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)

3. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 3) (E)

4. Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Cover-Up (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Seeds (PR: 6) (E)

7. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 7) (E)

8. Orwell 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Eyes of Ghana (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Below the Clouds

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-4)

7. Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Rental Family (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

A House of Dynamite

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Hamnet (PR: 3) (+1)

3. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bugonia (PR: 6) (E)

7. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jay Kelly (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8)(-1)

Dropped Out:

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. Hedda (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (E)

9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Snow White (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

One Battle After Another

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sinners (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (+1)

5. No Other Choice (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (-3)

8. A House of Dynamite (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Bugonia

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 3) (-1)

5. 28 Years Later (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Wolf Man (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Hamnet (PR: 5) (-5)

Dropped Out:

The Wizard of the Kremlin

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)

5. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (E)

8. Bugonia (PR: 5) (-3)

9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

10. After the Hunt (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

A House of Dynamite

Hedda

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E) – listed as TBD

2. “Golden” from KPop: Demon Hunters (PR: 3) (+1)

3. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (-1)

4. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (+1) – listed as TBD

5. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Highest 2 Lowest” from Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 6) (E)

7. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (E)

8. “Give Your Love” from The Ballad of Wallis Island (PR: 9) (+1)

9. “Pale, Pale Moon” from Sinners (PR: 8) (-1)

10. “Waiting on a Wish” from Snow White (PR: 10) (E)

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sinners (PR: 3) (-3)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (E)

9. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Blue Moon

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (E)

4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)

5. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Warfare (PR: 5) (-1)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)

9. A House of Dynamite (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Superman (PR: 2) (-1)

4. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 5) (+1)

5. F1 (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tron: Ares (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Warfare (PR: 7) (-2)

10. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Lost Bus

And that works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

12 Nominations

Sinners

10 Nominations

One Battle After Another, Wicked: For Good

9 Nominations

Hamnet, Sentimental Value

8 Nominations

Marty Supreme

5 Nominations

Frankenstein, Jay Kelly

4 Nominations

Bugonia, It Was Just an Accident, No Other Choice

3 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

2 Nominations

F1, KPop: Demon Hunters, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

1 Nomination

28 Years Later, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Arco, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Little Amelie or the Character of Rain, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk, The Secret Agent, The Smashing Machine, Superman, The Testament of Ann Lee, The Voice of Hind Rajib, Zootopia 2

98th Academy Awards Predictions: September 13th Edition

My goodness… where to begin? Since my last predictions post on August 24th, the Venice and Telluride Film Festivals have come and gone. Toronto wraps up tomorrow.

Since that time, my individual posts have showcased numerous pictures screening at those festivals and their awards viability. There are plenty of headlines, but the biggest in my estimation comes from outside those venues.

That would be Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another which opens in less than two weeks. It eschewed the festival circuit. However, early screenings have occurred and they suggest Battle could be a force on the circuit. It vaults from 11th all the way to 1st in my BP rankings while doing the same in Director and Adapted Screenplay. Teyana Taylor and Sean Penn join the supporting fields for their work (though Leonardo DiCaprio is not in my lead Actor quintet).

As for other major developments (many resulting from those aforementioned viewings in Colorado, Italy and Canada):

Chloe Zhao’s Hamnet is the other massive gainer. It enters BP, Director and Supporting Actor (Paul Mescal) while Jessie Buckley is now #1 in lead Actress.

The additions of Battle and Hamnet in BP knock out Rental Family and After the Hunt (the mixed to negative reaction for that movie caused it drop everywhere).

Paul Thomas Anderson and Chloé Zhao entering the Director derby means Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme) and Yorgos Lanthimos (Bugonia) are outsiders looking in.

Emma Stone (Bugonia) is in the Best Actress quintet with Julia Roberts (After the Hunt) out.

Somehow Best Actor stays the same, but I struggled because I strongly considered the top 11 for slots in the top five.

Major changes in Supporting Actress with Battle‘s Teyana Taylor, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value) and Emily Blunt (The Smashing Machine) replacing Gwyneth Paltrow (Marty Supreme), Mari Yamamoto (Rental Family) and Ayo Edebiri (After the Hunt).

Hamnet‘s Paul Mescal and Battle’s Sean Penn cause Jeremy Strong (Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere) and Akira Emoto (Rental Family) to fall from Supporting Actor.

Netflix’s juggernaut KPop Demon Hunters is now #1 in Animated Feature.

You can read the (considerable) movement below and my next update will be up within the next two weeks!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 11) (+10)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Hamnet (PR: 13) (+9)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-2)

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Bugonia (PR: 6) (-2)

9. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 9) (E)

10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. Rental Family (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 12) (E)

13. A House of Dynamite (PR: 16) (+3)

14. Frankenstein (PR: 14) (E)

15. No Other Choice (PR: 17) (+2)

16. The Secret Agent (PR: 18) (+2)

17. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 15) (-2)

18. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 20) (+2)

19. Blue Moon (PR: Not Ranked)

20. Is This Thing On? (PR: 21) (+1)

21. Anemone (PR: 22) (+1)

22. The Voice of Hind Rajib (PR: Not Ranked)

23. After the Hunt (PR: 7) (-16)

24. Weapons (PR: 25) (+1)

25. Father Mother Sister Brother (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Smashing Machine

Ballad of a Small Player

La Grazia

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+7)

2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 12) (+8)

5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite (PR: 13) (+4)

10. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-4)

11. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 15) (+4)

12. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Kaother Ben Hania, The Voice of Hind Rajib (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Mona Fastvold, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt

Hikari, Rental Family

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 5) (+4)

2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-5)

8. Sydney Sweeney, Christy (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 15) (+4)

12. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: 11) (-1)

13. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Rebecca Ferguson, A House of Dynamite (would be supporting if nominated)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (+1)

3. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)

5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 6) (E)

7. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 10) (E)

11. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Hugh Jackman, Song Sung Blue (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein

Colin Farrell, Ballad of a Small Player

Will Arnett, Is This Thing On?

Willem Dafoe, Late Fame

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 13) (+10)

4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-3)

7. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family (PR: 5) (-5)

11. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Wumni Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 3) (-11)

15. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Laura Dern, Jay Kelly

Thomasin McKenzie, The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 7) (+5)

3. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+5)

4. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)

7. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: 3) (-4)

8. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 13) (+5)

9. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 4) (-5)

10. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Sean Bean, Anemone (PR: 14) (E)

15. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Jude Law, The Wizard of the Kremlin

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (-2)

5. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rental Family (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Secret Agent (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Blue Moon (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)

11. A House of Dynamite (PR: 15) (+4)

12. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 14) (+2)

13. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (-4)

14. After the Hunt (PR: 6) (-8)

15. Father Mother Sister Brother (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Is This Thing On? (moved to Adapted Screenplay)

The Rivals of Amziah King

Anemone

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. Bugonia (PR: 1) (-1)

4. No Other Choice (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Train Dreams (PR: 8) (E)

9. Is This Thing On? (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Original Screenplay

10. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (-3)

11. The Life of Chuck (PR: 11) (E)

12. Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 15) (+3)

13. Nouvelle Vague (PR: Not Ranked)

14. The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ballad of a Small Player

The Wizard of the Kremlin

Late Fame

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Voice of Hind Rajib (PR: Not Ranked)

4. No Other Choice (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Sirât (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Sound of Falling (PR: 6) (-2)

9. The President’s Cake (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Love That Remains (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Nouvelle Vague

La Grazia

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Arco (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Elio (PR: 5) (+1)

5. A Magnificent Life (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 9) (+3)

7. In Your Dreams (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Scarlet (PR: 3) (-5)

9. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Animal Farm (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)

3. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Cover-Up (PR: Not Ranked)

5. The Eyes of Ghana (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Seeds (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Below the Clouds (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Orwell 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

Deaf President Now!

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (+4)

4. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Rental Family (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (E)

9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)

10. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Life of Chuck

The Rivals of Amziah King

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (+5)

3. Hamnet (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bugonia (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (-3)

9. F1 (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Jay Kelly (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Nouvelle Vague

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Sinners (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Snow White (PR: 10) (+1)

10. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Couture

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+7)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. F1 (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (E)

8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (E)

9. Bugonia (PR: 6) (-3)

10. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

After the Hunt

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Sinners (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Hamnet (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

9. 28 Years Later (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Wolf Man (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Kiss of the Spider Woman

Christy

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (+4)

3. Hamnet (PR: 8) (+5)

4. Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Bugonia (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (E)

8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (+1)

9. A House of Dynamite (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

After the Hunt

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

3. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)

5. TBD from Wicked: For Good (second song) (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Highest 2 Lowest” from Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 7) (+1)

7. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (+2)

8. “Pale, Pale Moon” from Sinners (PR: 6) (-2)

9. “Give Your Love” from The Ballad of Wallis Island (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “Waiting on a Wish” from Snow White (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

TBD from Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

“Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 6) (+1)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 5) (-1)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Blue Moon (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Bugonia

Kiss of the Spider Woman

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 2) (-1)

4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)

5. Warfare (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (-1)

7. A House of Dynamite (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (-1)

10. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Marty Supreme

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

2. Superman (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-1)

4. F1 (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Warfare (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Tron: Ares (PR: 8) (E)

9. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (-3)

10. The Lost Bus (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

How to Train Your Dragon

That equates to these generating these numbers of nominatons:

14 Nominations

Sinners

11 Nominations

Winner: For Good

10 Nominations

Hamnet

9 Nominations

One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value

7 Nominations

Marty Supreme

6 Nominations

Jay Kelly

5 Nominations

Bugonia

4 Nominations

Frankenstein, It Was Just an Accident

3 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash

2 Nominations

F1, KPop Demon Hunters, No Other Choice, The Smashing Machine, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

1 Nomination

2000 Meters to Andrivka, Arco, Cover-Up, Elio, Diane Warren: Relentless, The Eyes of Ghana, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Kiss of the Spider Woman, A Magnificent Life, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, The Secret Agent, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, Superman, The Testament of Ann Lee, The Voice of Hind Rajib, Warfare, Zootopia 2

Oscar Predictions: The Lost Bus

The Lost Bus found its way to the Toronto Film Festival prior to its September 19th limited theatrical release and October 3rd Apple TV streaming debut. The true life wildfire survival tale comes from Paul Greengrass (the Bourne franchise, United 93, Captain Phillips) with Matthew McConaughey and America Ferrara headlining. Yul Vazquez and Ashlie Atkinson costar.

The 100% Rotten Tomatoes rating is a little deceiving with the 66 on Metacritic more accurately reflecting the critical consensus. McConaughey (a 2013 Best Actor victor for Dallas Buyers Club) and Ferrera (a Supporting Actress nominee in 2023 for Barbie) are being appreciated for their performances, but not enough to anticipate their second tries at gold. Where Bus could be in sole contention is in Visual Effects. If it manages to make the shortlist, it might be a trendy pick for inclusion. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

98th Academy Awards Predictions: August 24th Edition

We are only three days away from festival season beginning in earnest so let’s call these Oscar predictions the calm before the storm. And it’s certainly the last update before major changes will undoubtedly materialize.

Venice kicks off Wednesday where we get our first looks at numerous pictures listed below. That includes After the Hunt, Bugonia, Frankenstein, Jay Kelly, A House of Dynamite, No Other Choice, The Smashing Machine, The Testament of Ann Lee, The Wizard of the Kremlin, Scarlet, and Below the Clouds to name a few. The Italian fest runs through September 6th.

On September 4th, the Toronto Film Festival gets underway. That’s right after Telluride plays over Labor Day weekend (their lineup will announce this week). The Canadian fest includes such high-profile contenders as Rental Family, Hamnet, Ballad of a Small Player, Hedda, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Christy, and The Lost Bus.

Keep an eye on this blog for scores of Oscar prediction posts over the next three weeks spotlighting these pics and more. As for this update – Picture, Director, and the four acting races remain the same. Even with that stability (for the moment), I’ll note some interesting developments:

The trailer for Daniel Day-Lewis’s first movie in eight years, Anemone, dropped. It was enough to almost put him in my Best Actor quintet as he rose three spots from 10th to 7th. His costar Sean Bean is also listed for the first time as a possibility in Supporting Actor.
Amy Madigan’s memorable (and creepy) supporting work in Weapons earns the actress her first mention in Supporting Actress. I have her in 8th, but don’t be surprised if she rises given the film’s box office success and the inevitable slides of performers currently ahead of her.
The first trailer for Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme premiered. I now have it receiving the third most nominations behind Sinners and Wicked: For Good.
Ariana Grande’s Wicked: For Good turn is back at #1 in Supporting Actress with Ayo Edebiri (After the Hunt) dipping from 1st to 3rd. We’ll know soon enough via Venice whether Hunt is an across the board awards player or not. There’s some general skepticism which explains the pic’s drop in numerous categories including BP, the supporting fields, and its original screenplay.

You can read all the movement below and be assured that lots of speculation is coming in the days ahead!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (+1)

6. Bugonia (PR: 7) (+1)

7. After the Hunt (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Rental Family (PR: 10) (+2)

9. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 9) (E)

10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)

12. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Hamnet (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Frankenstein (PR: 12) (-2)

15. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 14) (-1)

16. A House of Dynamite (PR: 16) (E)

17. No Other Choice (PR: 17) (E)

18. The Secret Agent (PR: 22) (+4)

19. The Smashing Machine (PR: 20) (+1)

20. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 18) (-2)

21. Is This Thing On? (PR: 21) (E)

22. Anemone (PR: Not Ranked)

23. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 19) (-4)

24. La grazia (PR: Not Ranked)

25. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Life of Chuck

Nouvelle Vague

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)

9. Hikari, Rental Family (PR: 15) (+6)

10. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 11) (E)

12. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 12) (E)

13. Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite (PR: 13) (E)

14. Mona Fastvold, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (-3)

15. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 14) (-1)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sydney Sweeney, Christy (PR: 10) (E)

11. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: 11) (E)

12. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 12) (E)

13. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 13) (E)

14. Rebecca Ferguson, A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night

Lucy Liu, Rosemead

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)

5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 6) (E)

7. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: 14) (+3)

12. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 12) (E)

13. Colin Farrell, Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Will Arnett, Is This Thing On? (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: 13) (-2)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)

7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (E)

8. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Thomasin McKenzie, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 11) (E)

12. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Regina Hall, One Battle After Another

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stellan Skaragård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)

7. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jude Law, The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 12) (E)

13. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Sean Bean, Anemone (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Rental Family (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. After the Hunt (PR: 4) (-2)

7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Secret Agent (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Is This Thing On? (PR: 12) (+1)

12. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Anemone (PR: Not Ranked)

14. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 13) (-1)

15. A House of Dynamite (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Weapons

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Bugonia (PR: 1) (E)

2. Hamnet (PR: 3) (+1)

3. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (E)

5. No Other Choice (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Train Dreams (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Wicked: For Good (PR: 11) (+1)

11. The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (-2)

12. The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (E)

13. The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Late Fame (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Highest 2 Lowest (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Die, My Love

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)

3. No Other Choice (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (E)

5. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sound of Falling (PR: 6) (E)

7. La grazia (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The President’s Cake (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 10) (+1)

10. SIrât (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

All That’s Left of You

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zootopia 2 (PR: 1) (E)

2. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Scarlet (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Arco (PR: 4) (E)

5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Magnificent Life (PR: 6) (E)

7. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 7) (E)

8. In Your Dreams (PR: 8) (E)

9. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 9) (E)

10. Animal Farm (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)

3. Seeds (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 4) (E)

5. Below the Clouds (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Eyes of Ghana (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Orwell: 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Deaf President Now! (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Come See Me in the Good Light

Architection

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Rental Family (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (-2)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jay Kelly (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Life of Chuck (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

After the Hunt

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Bugonia (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hamnet (PR: 6) (E)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (E)

9. Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (E)

8. Couture (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (E)

10. Snow White (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Mother Mary

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+2)

5. After the Hunt (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bugonia (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Wicked: For Good (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (E)

9. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked)

8. 28 Years Later (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Christy (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Wolf Man

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (-1)

4. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Bugonia (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)

7. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-2)

10. A House of Dynamite (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Testament of Ann Lee

Sentimental Value

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 4) (+1)

4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 3) (-1)

5. TBD from Wicked: For Good (second song) (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Pale, Pale Moon” from Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)

7. “Highest 2 Lowest” from Highest 2 Lowest (PR: Not Ranked)

8. TBD from Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (-2)

9. TBD from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-2)

10. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

“Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless

TBD from Zootopia 2

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Sinners (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hamnet (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Bugonia (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

One Battle After Another

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. F1 (PR: 1) (-3)

5. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Warfare (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (-2)

9. A House of Dynamite (PR: 9) (E)

10. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Superman

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Superman (PR: 2) (-1)

4. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 4) (E)

5. F1 (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Tron: Ares (PR: 6) (-2)

9. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Lost Bus (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Mickey 17

And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

14 Nominations

Sinners

11 Nominations

Wicked: For Good

10 Nominations

Marty Supreme

9 Nominations

Sentimental Value

6 Nominations

After the Hunt, Bugonia, Jay Kelly

5 Nominations

Frankenstein, Rental Family

4 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash

3 Nominations

Hamnet, It Was Just an Accident

2 Nominations

F1, KPop Demon Hunters, No Other Choice, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, The Testament of Ann Lee

1 Nomination

2000 Meters to Andrivka, Arco, Below the Clouds, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Left-Handed Girl, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, One Battle After Another, The Perfect Neighbor, Scarlet, The Secret Agent, Seeds, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Zootopia 2

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