As I always say at the beginning of September on this blog – what a difference a few days makes as Venice is at its midpoint and Telluride occurred over the holiday weekend. The Toronto Film Festival begins Thursday. For the first time, I am thrilled to announce that I will be in attendance and have screenings scheduled for several potential heavy hitters! They include The Fabelmans, The Son, The Whale, Women Talking, The Banshees of Inisherin, Triangle of Sadness, Empire of Light, The Menu, The Wonder, Bros, The Greatest Beer Run Ever, and The Good Nurse.
The fall festivals always cause the fortunes of certain pictures to rise and fall. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu’s Bardo received mixed reviews out of Lido and it has dropped out of my predictions in Picture, Director, Actor (Daniel Gimenez Cacho), and Supporting Actress (Griselda Sicillani). On the other hand, Sarah Polley’s Women Talking looks to have solidified its position as a BP hopeful while Claire Foy and Jessie Buckley appear to be the two likeliest nominees from its ensemble. Cate Blanchett (Tar) and Brendan Fraser (The Whale) have positioned themselves as surefire nominees and potential winners in the lead acting derbies. Tar itself improved its standing in Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay. Empire of Light is no slam dunk for BP, but it’s in the mix and Olivia Colman seems solid in Actress. The Banshees of Inisherin may be Fox Searchlight’s better hope over Empire. It drew a rapturous Venice reaction today and has vaulted into Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor, and Original Screenplay on my chart. Bones and All, despite some gushing reviews, could face challenges to fit into the BP race. Don’t Worry Darling, due to some middling write-ups, is probably toast.
Of course, we know that festivals are not the end all and be all for final verdicts. For example, Armageddon Time from James Gray seemed DOA after a so-so Cannes bow in the summer. Yet when it played Telluride over the weekend, the buzz was stronger. It’s awards heart is beating again – even if faintly.
This will probably be my last update for two weeks as I’ll be a Canadian for a few days. You can bet you’ll see lots of other individual Oscar prediction posts as well as reviews of the aforementioned pictures. When I update in a couple of weeks, I’m anticipating branching out to all races covering feature films. Until then, you can peruse all the movement (and there is definitely a lot of it) below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Women Talking (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The Son (PR: 5) (E)
6. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 10) (+4)
7. The Whale (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Tar (PR: 11) (+3)
9. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 18) (+9)
10. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Empire of Light (PR: 7) (-4)
12. Decision to Leave (PR: 12) (E)
13. She Said (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 16) (+2)
15. Elvis (PR: 15) (E)
16. White Noise (PR: 13) (-3)
17. Bones and All (PR: 22) (+5)
18. Armageddon Time (PR: Not Ranked)
19. Till (PR: 20) (+1)
20. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 23) (+3)
21. Broker (PR: 17) (-4)
22. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 19) (-3)
23. Living (PR: 25) (+2)
24. Bardo (PR: 4) (-20)
25. The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 24) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Menu
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Todd Field, Tar (PR: 11) (+5)
7. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Florian Zeller, The Son (PR: 9) (+1)
9. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (PR: 10) (E)
11. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light (PR: 7) (-4)
12. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Noah Baumbach, White Noise (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Baz Luhrmann, Elvis (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Bardo
Maria Schrader, She Said
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 4) (E)
5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 6) (E)
7. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Florence Pugh, The Wonder (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 10) (E)
11. Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Taylor Russell, Bones and All (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Tang Wei, Decision to Leave (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Jessica Chastain, The Good Nurse (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Regina King, Shirley (moved to 2023)
Frances McDormand, Women Talking (role not large enough)
Florence Pugh, Don’t Worry Darling
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 10) (+6)
5. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Song Kang-ho, Broker (PR: 7) (E)
8. Micheal Ward, Empire of Light (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 9) (E)
10. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Timothee Chalamet, Bones and All (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Kelvin Harrison, Jr., Chevalier (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Park Hae-il, Decision to Leave (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Vanessa Kirby, The Son (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 14) (+10)
5. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Laura Dern, The Son (PR: 6) (E)
7. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Jean Smart, Babylon (PR: 8) (E)
9. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Samantha Morton, She Said (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Zoe Kazan, She Said (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Sadie Sink, The Whale (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Dakota Johnson, Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: 13) (E)
14. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (-4)
15. Nina Hoss, Tar (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Griselda Sicillani, Bardo
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR 2) (E)
3. Zen McGrath, The Son (PR: 3) (E)
4. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 7) (E)
8. Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 9) (E)
10. Anthony Hopkins, The Son (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Mark Strong, Tar (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Seth Rogen, The Fabelmans (PR: 13) (E)
14. Ralph Fiennes, The Menu (PR: 14) (E)
15. Russell Crowe, The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Colin Firth, Empire of Light
Toby Jones, Empire of Light
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Babylon (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tar (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Empire of Light (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Decision to Leave (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Armageddon Time (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Broker (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Bros (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Aftersun (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: 13) (E)
14. Bardo (PR: 5) (-9)
15. The Menu (PR: 10) (-5)
Dropped Out:
Don’t Worry Darling
Chevalier
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Son (PR: 1) (E)
2. Women Talking (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Whale (PR: 3) (E)
4. She Said (PR: 4) (E)
5. White Noise (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Bones and All (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Living (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 9) (E)
10. Till (PR: 10) (E)
11. The Lost King (PR: 11) (E)
12. The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 12) (E)
13. The Wonder (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Elvis (PR: 13) (-1)
15. The Good Nurse (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Woman King
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