My second round of Oscar predictions in the six biggest races are before you. When I update them next, we’ll be in the midst of the Cannes Film Festival where some of these hopefuls are screening.
As for category placement changes, I’ve moved Jesse Plemons in Killers of the Flower Moon to Supporting Actor from lead. It remains to be seen which contest he’s placed in. If it is supporting, we shall see if it’s him or Robert De Niro that gets the buzz. I’m betting on the latter at press time.
Let’s get into it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Women Talking (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Son (PR: 4) (-1)
6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (+2)
7. She Said (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Bardo (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Whale (PR: 9) (E)
10. Rustin (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Amsterdam (PR: 11) (E)
12. Decision to Leave (PR: Not Ranked)
13. White Noise (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Poor Things (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 17) (+2)
16. Empire of Light (PR: 16) (E)
17. Tar (PR: 14) (-3)
18. Till (PR: 15) (-3)
19. Armageddon Time (PR: 25) (+6)
20. Elvis (PR: 22) (+2)
21. Thirteen Lives (PR: 20) (-1)
22. The Woman King (PR: 23) (+1)
23. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: 24) (+1)
24. Don’t Worry Darling (PR: 18) (-6)
25. Next Goal Wins (PR: 19) (-6)
Dropped Out:
The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)
5. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Bardo (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (E)
7. Florian Zeller, The Son (PR: 7) (E)
8. Maria Schrader, She Said (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (PR: 8) (-2)
11. George C. Wolfe, Rustin (PR: 10) (-1)
12. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 12) (E)
13. David O. Russell, Amsterdam (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Noah Baumbach, White Noise
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 2) (E)
3. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 6) (E)
7. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 8) (E)
9. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Laura Dern, The Son (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Florence Pugh, Don’t Worry Darling (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Saoirse Ronan, See How They Run (PR: 13) (E)
14. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Tilda Swinton, Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Greta Gerwig, White Noise
Best Actor
1. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Christian Bale, Amsterdam (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Viggo Mortensen, Thirteen Lives (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Joaquin Phoenix, Disappointment Blvd. (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Idris Elba, Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: 15) (E)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Zoe Kazan, She Said (PR: 3) (E)
4. Vanessa Kirby, The Son (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 6) (E)
7. Jean Smart, Babylon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Whoopi Goldberg, Till (PR: 8) (E)
9. Margot Robbie, Amsterdam (PR: 9) (E)
10. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Rooney Mara, Women Talking (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Patricia Clarkson, She Said (PR: 12) (E)
13. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 13) (E)
14. Margaret Qualley, Poor Things (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Thuso Mbedu, The Woman King (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Dakota Johnson, Cha Cha Real Smooth
Sadie Sink, The Whale
Frances McDormand, Women Talking
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 10) (+6)
5. John David Washington, Amsterdam (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 7) (E)
8. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: Not Ranked – moved from lead Actor)
10. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Anthony Hopkins, The Son (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Frankie Faison, Till (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Seth Rogen, The Fabelmans (PR: 8) (-6)
15. Colin Firth, Empire of Light (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Don Cheadle, White Noise
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