Tag: Moana

December 5-7 Box Office Predictions

Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 looks to challenge Zootopia 2 for box office supremacy as anime offering Jujutsu Kaisen: Execution is also unveiled. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers for the post Thanksgiving frame here:

Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 Box Office Prediction
Jujutsu Kaisen: Execution Box Office Prediction

I am not sold on Freddy’s 2 despite its predecessor’s sizzling $80 million start two years ago. As I explained in my write-up, I suspect a decent portion of its fanbase won’t turn up and my mid to high 30s take gives it runner-up status.

As for Jujutsu Kaisen: Execution, the genre has been on fire lately but this pre-screening of the TV show’s forthcoming third season may settle for fourth place and mid single digits.

Considering my reservations about Freddy’s, that would leave Zootopia 2 in first after an impressive premiere (more on that below). A mid 50s drop should be on the way.

Wicked: For Good‘s third frame decline could be even more pronounced for third position while Now You See Me: Now You Don’t should complete the top five in a sequel heavy lineup.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Zootopia 2

Predicted Gross: $43.1 million

2. Five Nights at Freddy’s 2

Predicted Gross: $36.5 million

3. Wicked: For Good

Predicted Gross: $23.2 million

4. Jujutsu Kaisen: Execution

Predicted Gross: $6.4 million

5. Now You See Me: Now You Don’t

Predicted Gross: $3.6 million

Box Office Results (November 28-30)

Zootopia 2, as projected, easily managed the second best Turkey weekend opening behind Disney’s Moana 2 from last year. It also scored huge in China which helped contribute to it having the best animated worldwide debut of all time and the fourth best overall. With $100.2 million from Friday to Sunday and $158.8 million domestically since Wednesday, it did fall below my respective takes of $112.4 million and $184.3 million. Admittedly I took the over.

I should’ve taken the under on Wicked: For Good. A year ago, part 1 eased a mere 28% in its Thanksgiving sophomore outing. The follow-up fell 58% to $61.7 million while I called for $82 million. Nevertheless its two-week tally stands at a soaring $269 million.

Now You See Me: Now You Don’t was third in weekend #3 with $6.9 million, a tad ahead of my $6.2 million prediction for $49 million thus far.

Predator: Badlands was fourth in its fourth go-round with $4.8 million (I said $4.6 million). The franchise entry has $85 million in its coffers as it should come close to nine digits stateside.

The Running Man rounded out the top five with $3.7 million, in line with my $3.4 million forecast for an underwhelming $34 million in three weeks.

Finally, rom com Eternity with Miles Teller and Elizabeth Olsen was sixth out of the gate with $3.1 million over the traditional weekend and $5.2 million since Wednesday. That’s in range with my respective takes of $3 million and $4.4 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions: Zootopia 2

As they frequently do over the Thanksgiving holiday, Disney should reign supreme with an animated effort. In 2025, they’ll do it via Zootopia 2 which follows up the 2016 original. Jared Bush and Byron Howard are back directing. Returning voice work comes from Ginnifer Goodwin, Jason Bateman, Shakira, Idris Elba, Alan Tudyk, Bonnie Hunt, and Jenny Slate. Newcomers to the franchise include Ke Huy Quan, Fortune Feimster, Andy Samberg, David Strathairn, Patrick Warburton, Quinta Brunson, and Danny Trejo.

At the 89th Academy Awards, Zootopia won Best Animated Feature against fellow studio competitor Moana and the acclaimed Kubo and the Two Strings. It opened early in the calendar (March) and maintained frontrunner status throughout the long awards season. Reviews were strong with 98% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 78 Metacritic.

The sequel is also generating solid critical reaction with 93% on RT and Metacritic at 73. Those numbers are sturdy enough that I’m confident Zootopia 2 has reserved a spot in the Animated Feature quintet. It also has a shot to be victorious like its predecessor. However, I’ve had it ranked in second position behind the cultural juggernaut that is Netflix’s KPop Demon Hunters. Overcoming that streaming phenomenon could be a tall order. It might be achievable but leaving it in second feels right unless precursors alter the narrative. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Zootopia 2 Box Office Prediction

Disney has owned the Thanksgiving holiday in recent years and that looks to continue when Zootopia 2 arrives November 26th. Jared Bush and Byron Howard are back directing the sequel to the 2016 blockbuster that took home Best Animated Feature at the Oscars. Returning voices include Ginnifer Goodwin, Jason Bateman, Idris Elba, and Shakira. New faces behind the mics are Ke Huy Quan, Fortune Feimster, Andy Samberg, David Strathairn, Patrick Warburton, Quinta Brunson, Roman Reigns, and CM Punk.

Last year, the Mouse House smashed the Thanksgiving box office record with Moana 2. That follow-up took in $139 million from Friday to Sunday with $225 million when counting Wednesday and Turkey Day. The previous highest three-day opening was the original Moana (also from 2016) at $56 million.

Zootopia 2 should fall between the Moana‘s in the record books. In a best case scenario, it could threaten part 2. In March 2016, the original exceeded expectations with a $75 million start on its way to $341 million overall domestically. This is widely anticipated to build on that with room to spare.

I’ll project a Friday to Sunday gross between $110 to $115 million and a five-day topping $180 million.

Zootopia 2 opening weekend prediction: $112.4 million (Friday to Sunday); $184.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my Eternity prediction, click here:

Eternity Box Office Prediction

December 13-15 Box Office Predictions

Kraven the Hunter and anime The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim hope to get lucky at the box office this weekend while Moana 2 and Wicked look to maintain the 1-2 spots. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Kraven the Hunter Box Office Prediction
The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim Box Office Prediction

Kraven arrives after multiple delays amid muted buzz. It will hope for numbers closer to the Venom franchise as opposed to Madame Web, but that could be wishful thinking. My low to mid teens forecast puts in third behind the fourth frame of Wicked.

As for Rings, it could exceed expectations simply due to brand recognition. While some anime fans could turn up in addition to Tolkien aficionados, I have it flopping in fourth barely ahead of Gladiator II.

Moana 2 should manage a third weekend in 1st with a mid 40s decline.

Here’s how I see the high five playing out:

1. Moana 2

Predicted Gross: $27.5 million

2. Wicked

Predicted Gross: $21.7 million

3. Kraven the Hunter

Predicted Gross: $14.8 million

4. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim

Predicted Gross: $8 million

5. Gladiator II

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million

Box Office Results (December 6-8)

The post Thanksgiving holiday weekend saw even bigger declines than I figured with the top four remaining unchanged. Disney’s Moana 2, after its record shattering debut, fell 63% to $51.2 million compared to my $55.1 million prediction. Nevertheless the Mouse Hunt smash sequel has amassed $299 million since its start.

Wicked was second with $36.4 million (down 55%) and I incorrectly had it holding steadier with $48 million. In three weeks, the Golden Globe nominated Best Musical or Comedy has taken off with an astounding $322 million in three weeks.

Gladiator II was third with $12.5 million, again not matching my loftier $14.8 million projection. Ridley Scott’s follow-up brought its three-week tally to $132 million.

Red One held the four spot at $7 million (I said $7.6 million). The holiday offering continues to inch toward nine digits with $85 million in four weeks.

Finally, epic Indian action fest Pushpa 2: The Rule was fifth with $4.8 million from Friday to Sunday. That didn’t match my $5.9 million expectation though it has made $9.3 million since being unveiled on Wednesday.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

December 6-8 Box Office Predictions

The post Thanksgiving frame, as it normally is, should be ruled by leftovers as Indian action fest Pushpa 2: The Rule looks to be the only newcomer in the top 5. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Pushpa 2: The Rule Box Office Prediction

Moana 2 decimated all Turkey Day weekend records (more on that below). The Mouse House sequel might see a drop in the high 50s to low 60s range and that would still be good for $50M+ in its sophomore outing.

It should manage to edge phenomenon Wicked in its third go-round. However, if the Broadway adaptation only dips 40% or below, it could leapfrog Moana for the #1 spot. I have it easing in the low to mid 40s.

Gladiator II and Red One should stay in 3rd and 4th with Pushpa 2 in the mid singe digits for the five spot.

Here’s how I have it playing out:

1. Moana 2

Predicted Gross: $55.1 million

2. Wicked

Predicted Gross: $48 million

3. Gladiator II

Predicted Gross: $14.8 million

4. Red One

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million

5. Pushpa 2: The Rule

Predicted Gross: $5.9 million

Box Office Results (November 29-December 1)

Disney’s Frozen II went into Thanksgiving 2024 with the best ever five-day take over the holiday. Moana 2 topped it with $100 million to spare! The follow-up to 2016’s original surpassed expectations with $139.7 million from Friday to Sunday and $225.4 million since its Wednesday bow. That crushes my respective takes of $92.1 million and $130.3 million. As anticipated, it did propel the box office to its highest Thanksgiving earnings of all time.

Wicked kept bringing in crowds in second with $81.1 million, zooming past my $71.6 million forecast. Already the largest grossing Broadway adaptation in history, the two-week tally is $263 million.

Gladiator II was third with $31 million, slashing beyond my $27.5 million prediction. The Ridley Scott sequel to his Best Picture winner stands at $111 million after two outings.

Fourth place was Red One, which declined only 4% for $12.7 million. I was less charitable at $9.4 million and the three-week total is $75 million.

The Best Christmas Pageant Ever rounded out the top five at $3.2 million. I incorrectly had it outside of the high five and it has made $31 million after four weeks.

Venom: The Last Dance, which I had in 5th, was 7th with $2.2 million (I said $2.9 million) for $137 million in six weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions: Moana 2

Moana 2, out this Thanksgiving weekend, was originally conceived as a Disney+ limited series before morphing into a proper sequel with a theatrical release. Now it’s widely expected to set the all-time record Turkey Day frame opening. David Derrick Jr., Jason Hand, and Dana Ledoux Miller direct with Auli’i Cravalho, Dwayne Johnson, Temuera Morrison, Nicole Scherzinger, Rachel House, and Alan Tudyk returning for voiceover work. Khaleesi Lambert-Tsuda, Rose Matafeo, and David Fane are among new cast lending behind the mic talents.

In 2016, Moana set the Friday to Sunday premiere record over Thanksgiving which still stands today… for the moment. The animated adventure also picked up two Oscar nominations in Animated Feature (where it lost to fellow Disney blockbuster Zootopia) and the Original Song “How Far I’ll Go”. That track came up short to “City of Stars” from La La Land.

The Mouse Factory waited until the last minute to lift the review embargo off of the sequel. It has a so-so 72% on Rotten Tomatoes (its predecessor has 95%) and 57 on Metacritic (Moana landed 81). That reaction likely won’t nab it one of the five slots in Animated Feature (though Disney should score a spot with Inside Out 2). As for songs, Lin-Manuel Miranda was involved in the tunes eight years ago. Without his involvement, don’t expect Moana 2‘s ditties to resonate with Academy voters. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

November 29-December 1 Box Office Predictions

Disney seeks to break its own all-time biggest Thanksgiving weekend record when Moana 2 sails into multiplexes this Wednesday. It’s the sole wide release over the holiday and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Moana 2 Box Office Prediction

It could be close, but I’m projecting the sequel to 2016’s animated tale will exceed Frozen II‘s current largest three-day and five-day ($85.9 million and $125 million) takes over the Turkey Day frame. The follow-up should easily top the Thanksgiving Friday to Sunday mark for a new picture which is currently held by… Moana at $56 million.

Leftovers will populate the rest of the top 5 with Wicked posting a second place showing after its third best premiere of 2024 (more on that below). With an A Cinemascore grade, the decline may only be in the mid 30s or so.

Gladiator II will drop a notch to third after a start on the lower end of its anticipated range. Ridley Scott’s long-in-the-works sequel could lose close to half its debut audience.

Red One and Venom: The Last Dance should fill out the rest of the high five and here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Moana 2

Predicted Gross: $92.1 million (Friday to Sunday); $130.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

2. Wicked

Predicted Gross: $71.6 million

3. Gladiator II

Predicted Gross: $27.5 million

4. Red One

Predicted Gross: $9.4 million

5. Venom: The Last Dance

Predicted Gross: $2.9 million

Box Office Results (November 22-24)

Two things can be true as “Glicked” (Wicked and Gladiator II releasing on the same day) gave a needed jolt to the box office while each came in at the lower end of most projections. The critically acclaimed Wicked, based on the hugely popular play, made off with $112.5 million. As mentioned, it’s the third best haul in 2024 behind Deadpool & Wolverine and Inside Out 2. Yet it didn’t match my $134.6 million forecast. With magical word-of-mouth, this seems destined to perform well throughout the season.

Gladiator II was runner-up with $55 million and that didn’t measure up to my $69.8 million call. The so-so Cinemascore grade could mean its weekend to weekend declines could be heftier than I might’ve originally projected.

Red One slid to third at $13.2 million compared to my $14.9 million prediction. The holiday action comedy has taken in $52 million in two weeks which isn’t overly impressive considering the reported $250 million price tag.

Newcomer Bonhoeffer from Angel Studios was the only newcomer of the trio that opened above my expectations with $5 million. I said $4 million.

Venom: The Last Dance rounded out the top five with $3.8 million (I said $3.6 million) for $133 million in five weeks.

The Best Christmas Pageant Ever was sixth with $3.4 million, ahead of my $2.7 million projection for $25 million in three weeks. Behind it in seventh was Heretic with $2.2 million (I went with $2.5 million) for $24 million in three weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Moana 2 Box Office Prediction

Disney looks to smash its own Thanksgiving opening records when Moana 2 lands in theaters on Wednesday, November 27th. The sequel to 2016’s musical adventure is directed by David Derrick Jr., Jason Hand, and Dana Ledoux Miller. Auli’i Cravalho, Dwayne Johnson, Temuera Morrison, Nicole Scherzinger, Rachel House, and Alan Tudyk reprise their voiceover work. Klaheesi Lambert-Tsuda, Rose Matafeo, and David Fane are new faces behind the mic.

Eight Turkey years ago, Moana took in $248 million domestically. It set the all-time Friday to Sunday opening Thanksgiving frame high mark with $56.6 million and that record still stands. Ralph Breaks the Internet from the Mouse Factory holds the five-day best of premiere at $84.7 million (just edging Moana‘s $82 million). Moana 2 seems poised to rather easily surpass those figures.

The follow-up is additionally looking to top Frozen II‘s largest three and five-day grosses for any picture over the holiday. That would be $85.9 million and $125 million, respectively. I don’t think that’s a guarantee, but part 1 is well-regarded enough that I think it gets there with some room to spare.

Moana 2 opening weekend prediction: $92.1 million (Friday to Sunday); $130.3 million (Wednesday to Monday)

Wish Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (11/20): Middling reviews have led to a downgrade in my estimate to low 30s for the three-day and mid 40s for the five.

Disney seeks a return to a Thanksgiving tradition by having an animated offering in the top spot with the release of Wish on November 22nd. Chris Buck (who co-helmed the Frozen features) and Fawn Veerasunthorn direct with a voice cast including Ariana DeBose, Chris Pine, Alan Tudyk, Angelique Cabral, Victor Garber, Harvey Guillén, Evan Peters, Ramy Youssef, and Jon Rudnitsky.

The musical fantasy would love to replicate the performance of the Frozen entries, but would certainly settle for the earnings of pre-COVID Turkey weekend offerings. In 2016, Moana opened to $56 million from Friday to Monday and $82 million when counting Wednesday and Thursday of the holiday frame. Coco in 2017 started off with $50 million over the three-day and $72 million for the five-day. In 2018, Ralph Breaks the Internet took in $56 million from Friday to Monday and $84 million over the extended holiday.

On the other hand, the Mouse House wants to avoid a Good Dinosaur level performance from 2015. It made $39 million for the three-day and $55 million with the extras.

My hunch is that Wish is granted a performance closest to Coco levels while not quite reaching those figures. I’ll project a mid to high 40s output over the regular weekend and mid to high 60s when factoring in those extra days when kiddos are out of school.

Wish opening weekend prediction: $32.2 million (Friday to Monday); $46.4 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my Napoleon prediction, click here:

Napoleon Box Office Prediction

Strange World Box Office Prediction

The last time Dennis Quaid and Jake Gyllenhaal played father and son, it was nearly 20 years ago in Roland Emmerich’s disaster epic The Day After Tomorrow. For the upcoming holiday, they’re family again in the Mouse Factory’s animated Strange World (out Wednesday November 23rd). Voicing a pair of explorers in the sci-fi themed adventure, Don Hall (who made Big Hero 6 and Raya and the Last Dragon) and Qui Nguyen direct. Other voices getting in on the action include Jaboukie Young-White, Gabrielle Union, and Lucy Liu.

Disney is no stranger to releasing high profile product over the long Turkey Day frame. Sometimes that’s Pixar material or traditionally drawn fare such as this. Frozen remains the gold standard. It debuted to $67 million for the Friday to Sunday portion of Thanksgiving weekend with $93 million when counting Wednesday and Thursday. Other Disney releases like Moana and Coco made off with $82 and $72 million over their respective first five. On the other hand, The Good Dinosaur grossed just under $40 million from Friday to Sunday in 2015 with $55 million for the extended period. Perhaps the best comp is last year’s Encanto. It made $27 million for the three-day with $40 million for the five.

The buzz seems strangely quiet considering the studio pedigree. I would argue Encanto had more heat before it opened. Strange could manage only a second place start behind the third outing for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (which does give Disney a one-two punch for the weekend). This might open a little closer to Dreamworks Animation’s Penguins of Madagascar from eight Thanksgivings ago at $25 million (Fri-Sun) and $35 million (Wed-Sun). It might even fall short of that.

Strange World opening weekend prediction: $19.3 million (Friday to Sunday); $26.7 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my Devotion trailer, click here:

Devotion Box Office Prediction

For my Bones and All prediction, click here:

Bones and All Box Office Prediction

For my The Fabelmans prediction, click here:

The Fabelmans Box Office Prediction