The latest DC Comics entry veers into full R rated body horror mode via Clayface which opens Friday. James Watkins directs the gory tale with Tom Rhys Harries in the title role and Naomi Ackie, David Dencik, Max Minghella, and Eddie Marsan providing support.
With 75% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 59 on Metacritic, Clayface is generating varied critical responses. This is not seen as an Oscar player for Warner Bros/DC with a notable exception. Those body horror effects could be rewarded in the Makeup & Hairstyling category. Recent ceremonies have seen the genre become more a player in that race with The Substance winning in 2024 and The Ugly Stepsister landing a nom last year. This could certainly make the contending quintet while a victory is likely out of reach. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Clayface is not your typical DC Universe flick and it might not reach the numbers of most other entries in the franchise. The R-rated thriller containing elements of body horror comes from director James Watkins with Tom Rhys Harries as the title character. Costars include Naomi Ackie, David Dencik, Max Minghella, and Eddie Marsan.
It’s been a rough year for Warner Bros and DC was part of that with the massive underperformance of Supergirl. It opened to a less than expected $38 million and was heavily front-loaded with just $72 million domestically. Guesstimates aren’t as high for Clayface and it only sports a $40 million budget compared to Supergirl‘s (at least) $170 million.
Unless this picks up steam in the coming week, low to mid 20s is the likely result.
Horror looks to rule the charts with Jessica Chastain as the creepy Other Mommy while Aaron Sorkin’s The Social Reckoning also debuts. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the two newcomers here:
With an effective trailer and a likely hunger for scary material as we’re into the month of October, my mid 20s projection for Mommy easily gives it the victory.
The Social Reckoning may have to settle for anywhere between third and fifth place. A sort of sequel to 2010’s acclaimed The Social Network, this updated look at Facebook/Meta isn’t carrying the type of buzz that greeted its predecessor. I have this making only a third of what Network achieved over a decade and a half ago.
As for holdovers, Verity had a fantastic opening (more on that below). The C+ Cinemascore grade is a bit troubling and a 60% sophomore dip would put it in a distant second. With my soft outlook for Reckoning, I’ll say that Resident Evil narrowly edges it out for third with Heart of the Beast rounding out the top five.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. Other Mommy
Predicted Gross: $27.2 million
2. Verity
Predicted Gross: $13.1 million
3. Resident Evil
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million
4. The Social Reckoning
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million
5. Heart of the Beast
Predicted Gross: $6.6 million
Box Office Results (October 2-4)
A couple weeks back, I couldn’t have imagined not discussing where Digger would place in the top five in its sophomore frame, but here we are.
We will get to Tom Cruise’s box office disaster shortly though we’ll start with positive results. Verity, based on the Colleen Hoover novel, opened at the highest end of expectations with $32 million. The thriller starring Anne Hathaway (in her fifth 2026 flick) and Dakota Johnson blew past my $20.4 million prediction. As mentioned, it should see a large decline this weekend but this is a fine result for Amazon MGM.
Resident Evil stayed in second place with $12.6 million, in range with my $12 million projection. The video game based horror tale has taken in $125 million after three weeks.
Heart of the Beast was third with $10.8 million, on pace with my $11.2 million call. The Brad Pitt/German Shepherd survival tale is up to $38 million in two weeks.
Digger was fourth and marked Tom Cruise’s lowest opening since 2007’s Lions for Lambs (in which he was a supporting player). With mixed reviews and a C+ Cinemascore, audiences and critics were divided and the result was only $8 million compared to my $10.3 million forecast. Warner Bros as we know it (after Paramount’s acquisition) goes out with a whimper as this will be a significant money loser for the studio.
Primetime rounded out the top five and I incorrectly had it on the outside looking in. Also with $8 million, the two-week tally is $34 million.
Finally, last week’s #1 Avengers: Endgame Encore fell a lot further than I figured in seventh with $4.4 million. That’s an 83% decline and I was far more generous at $10 million. Don’t feel bad for the MCU, however, as its overall gross since 2019 ballooned to $894 million.
There are multiple new releases making their way to multiplexes over the Labor Day frame, but I only have one managing a top five showing. That would be 1960s set crime thriller By Any Means with Mark Wahlberg and Yahya Abdul-Mateen II as it attempts double digits over the holiday weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
As summer turns into fall on the cinematic calendar, the MCU should be perched atop the charts for a sixth weekend in a row courtesy of Spider-Man: Brand New Day. A note that over this particular weekend, holdovers often experience minimal percentage declines or even a slight increase as moviegoers catch up on recent offerings. From Friday to Monday, I have Spidey essentially doing what it did in its fifth outing.
The Odyssey could return to second place from third while Coyote vs. Acme drops a spot after a notable premiere (more on that below). The latter’s second week drop is a head scratcher and it could be more front-loaded that I’m assuming. On the flip side, families could show up in solid numbers since it appears to have fresh word-of-mouth with an A Cinemascore.
Means may flirt with $10M+ in a best case scenario though I’ve got falling under for a fourth place start and Insidious: Out of the Further rounding out the top five.
As for other fresh product, I’m skeptical that horror offering Onslaught from Adam Wingard, survival flick sequel Fall 2: Deadpoint (out Wednesday), or Pixar’s 20th anniversary re-issue of Cars populate the top half of the top ten so no individual posts for that trio.
And with that, here’s how I have the top 5 shaking out and keep in mind that these are Friday through Monday guesstimates:
1. Spider-Man: Brand New Day
Predicted Gross: $23 million
2. The Odyssey
Predicted Gross: $14.8 million
3. Coyote vs. Acme
Predicted Gross: $13.2 million
4. By Any Means
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million
5. Insidious: Out of the Further
Predicted Gross: $7.5 million
Box Office Results (August 28-30)
As anticipated, Spider-Man: Brand New Day had no trouble swinging to a fifth victory with $22.5 million, in line with my $23.2 million call. With $891 million in its coffers, Day looks to exceed domestic record holder Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($936 million) in short order.
After Warner Bros jettisoned it as a tax write-off in 2023, Ketchup Entertainment squeezed some decent figures out of the live-action/animated hybrid Coyote vs. Acme. With $15.9 million, it was runner-up and surpassed my $13.8 million projection. Considering it was never going to see the light of day if WB had their way, it’s a better than expected result.
The Odyssey was third after four weeks in second position with $14.3 million, just under my $15.6 million call for a seven-week take of $563 million.
Insidious: Out of the Further dropped 59% in its sophomore weekend with $10.2 million compared to my $9.4 million take. The sixth feature in the horror franchise is at $43 million total.
With so-so reviews and muted WOM, Ridley Scott’s The Dog Stars starring Jacob Elordi, Josh Brolin, and Margaret Qualley failed to find an audience in fifth with $7.7 million (I said $8.3 million).
Finally, Roadside Attractions had a laudable showing with the low-budget Buddy in sixth. I didn’t do a prediction write-up for it, but the satirical horror tale made $5.5 million. The per theater average nearly equaled that of Acme.
August at the box office should close out like July did with Spider-Man: Brand New Day ruling the charts. Coyote vs. Acme, the live-action/animated hybrid with a bumpy journey to theaters and Ridley Scott’s post-apocalyptic drama The Dog Stars are the fresh challengers to the throne and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Warner Bros axed Coyote as a tax write-off as the Looney Tunes tale (shot in 2022) finally was picked up by Ketchup Entertainment. They hope to squeeze an opening weekend in the high teens though my low teens projection could mean third place.
That’s because the MCU’s Spidey adventure should see a fifth weekend in 1st with a drop in the low to mid 40s. The Odyssey could rise from third to second as Insidious: Out of the Further could see a sophomore frame plummet in the 60% range.
I’m putting Further in a close race with The Dog Stars for fourth place as I don’t see the latter finding much of an audience.
Here’s how I see the top five shaking out:
1. Spider-Man: Brand New Day
Predicted Gross: $23.2 million
2. The Odyssey
Predicted Gross: $15.6 million
3. Coyote vs. Acme
Predicted Gross: $13.8 million
4. Insidious: Out of the Further
Predicted Gross: $9.4 million
5. The Dog Stars
Predicted Gross: $8.3 million
Box Office Results (August 21-23)
The sixth entry of the Insidious horror franchise was no match for Tom Holland as Brand New Day spent a fourth weekend as the champ. Spidey took in $39 million, just ahead of my $38 million prediction for $854 million total. This week it will become the second highest grossing domestic feature in history (unadjusted for inflation) behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($936 million).
Insidious: Out of the Further settled for second with $25.1 million, under my $29.7 million call. While its numbers are just fine considering the reported $18 million budget, it did not match the $33 million that predecessor The Red Door opened to in 2023.
The Odyssey was third with $19.7 million compared to my $17.1 million take as the epic adventure has amassed $539 million in six weeks. It has now surpassed The Dark Knight ($534 million) to become Christopher Nolan’s largest stateside earner.
PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie was fourth in weekend #2 with $9.1 million, in line with my $9.6 million forecast. The animated sequel stands at $35 million.
The End of Oak Street, another dino movie, rounded out the top five with $8.7 million (I said $8.2 million) for $37 million after two weeks.
Jason Statham’s Mutiny was sixth with $7.7 million as the star’s latest action thriller premiered close to my $7.7 million projection.
Tony, focused on a formative summer in the life of Anthony Bourdain, expanded nationwide and was seventh with $5 million compared to my $6 million prediction. The overall tally is $6.6 million.
Finally, comedy Spa Weekend fizzled in ninth with $3 million though that is ahead of my $2.3 million prognosis.
Despite drawing winning critical reactions, Coyote vs. Acme may face an uphill battle at the box office when it debuts August 28th. The comedic live-action/animation hybrid was famously shelved by Warner Bros. (think Batgirl) but was rescued by Ketchup Entertainment. Shot in 2022 with an initial planned release in 2023, Dave Green directs with a cast including Will Forte, Lana Condor, Tone Bell, Luis Guzmán, Martha Kelly, P.J. Byrne, and John Cena.
In March 2025, Ketchup also tried to squeeze some money out of The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie. It premiered to just $3.2 million with a final domestic take under $10 million. Coyote has 96% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 75 Metacritic, but I’m skeptical family audiences will show up in huge numbers in this back to school time frame. While industry followers may be familiar with its struggles to reach the big screen, a large portion of its target audience is likely oblivious.
This still could open with more than what Earth made in total.
Coyote vs. Acme opening weekend prediction: $13.8 million
Out August 28th, the live-action/animated hybrid Coyote vs. Acme has experienced an adventurous journey to the big screen. Featuring Wile E. Coyote and numerous other Looney Tunes characters, Warner Bros famously shelved the movie for tax write-off purposes in 2023. After allowing other entities to bid on its release after negative press, Ketchup Entertainment (who also put out the recent The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie) is putting it in multiplexes. Dave Green (Earth to Echo, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows) directs with a human cast including Will Forte, Lana Condor, Tone Bell, P.J. Byrne, Luis Guzmán, and John Cena.
After all the press about whether or not it will ever see the light of day, is it any good? 97% on Rotten Tomatoes would indicate so. The Metacritic score of 75 is a bit more representative of some of those positive reviews not being raves.
Coyote‘s only shot at running away with an Oscar nod is Best Animated Feature. That’s a little complicated. In order to qualify for inclusion, a picture must feature animation for 75% of its running time. I’ve yet to see any confirmation whether this fits the criteria. We might be waiting for the Academy to put out their list of contenders and that likely won’t occur until November (35 flicks met the standards last year).
If Coyote is among the hopefuls, I could see it making the shortlist and then who knows from there. I wouldn’t bet on it making the final five, but there was a time when no one thought it would make it out for public consumption. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Lee Cronin’s The Mummy will attempt to scare up decent business as the weekend’s major new wide release, but The Super Mario Galaxy Movie looks to rule the charts for a third frame. You can peruse my detailed rap on the reboot of The Mummy franchise here:
My projection for the newcomer likely puts it in a battle for second place with the fifth weekend of Project Hail Mary. I’m looking for both to land in the mid to higher teens and I’ll give the latter a slight edge for a third weekend in the runner-up position. Warner Bros. would love for Cronin’s horror version of The Mummy to hit $20M+, but I’m skeptical.
As for Mario, it should have no trouble scoring the trifecta atop the box office mountain with earnings between $35-40 million. Its streak in the top spot should end in weekend #4 with musical biopic Michael slated to beat it.
Holdovers romances The Drama and You, Me & Tuscany should fill out the rest of the top five and here’s how I envision it shaking out:
1. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
Predicted Gross: $38.4 million
2. Project Hail Mary
Predicted Gross: $17.9 million
3. Lee Cronin’s The Mummy
Predicted Gross: $17.2 million
4. The Drama
Predicted Gross: $6 million
5. You, Me & Tuscany
Predicted Gross: $4.5 million
Box Office Results(April 10-12)
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie didn’t hold as well as 2023 predecessor The Super Mario Bros. Movie, but its 48% decline was still commendable. The Illumination Entertainment sequel took in $68 million, falling below my generous $79.1 million prediction. In two weeks, the total has soared to $307 million.
Project Hail Mary eased only 24% in second with $24.1 million, ahead of my $20.6 million forecast. The sci-fi blockbuster stands at $256 million after four weeks.
The Drama with Zendaya and Robert Pattinson was third, with a solid 39% dip to $8.7 million. That’s on track with my $8.5 million call resulting in a two-week take of $30 million.
You, Me & Tuscany was fourth as the romantic comedy with Halle Bailey and Regé-Jean Page stalled with $7.7 million. I had it making more at $11.2 million.
Finally, Hoppers was fifth with $4.1 million (I said $3.6 million) as the Pixar effort jumped to $157 million after six weeks.
Lee Cronin’s The Mummy looks to wrap up an impressive debut when it drops April 17th. While the Brendan Fraser and Tom Cruise versions of The Mummy saga concentrated more on adventure, Evil Dead Rise director Cronin is bringing the horror to this James Wan/Jason Blum coproduction. Jack Reynor headlines the cast which includes Laia Costa, May Calamawy, Natalie Grace, and Verónica Falcón.
This is the second reboot of this franchise in the 21st century. The 2017 Tom Cruise one was a box office and critical failure (confession: i think it’s kinda fun). Warner Bros would love to see a repeat of the $24.5 million that greeted Evil Dead Rise over the same April time frame three years ago.
That is probably a best case scenario and I suspect it won’t reach those levels. Estimates have this is in the low to mid teens. I’ll say it manages to land on the higher end of that range.
Lee Cronin’s The Mummy opening weekend prediction: $17.2 million
The 37th Producers Guild of America (PGA) Awards take place this Saturday and their best of prize has become a rather reliable bellwether for the Academy’s Best Picture. The two have matched 7 out of the last 8 years with 2019 being the exception when PGA chose 1917 and Oscar went with Parasite.
PGA also honors documentaries and animated features. Let’s walk through each race with a winner and runner-up selection.
Daryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures
Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Train Dreams, Weapons
PGA and the Academy have a 9 for 10 match this year. Weapons makes the cut on this list with The Secret Agent replacing it at the Oscars. This is expected to come down to Warner Bros offerings One Battle and Sinners. While I am predicting the latter to get Best Ensemble at Sunday’s Actor Awards, I still see Battle as the Oscar frontrunner and therefore am picking it here. That said, if Sinners gets this, the momentum will have shifted.
WINNER: One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Sinners
Outstanding Producer of Documentary Theatrical Motion Pictures
The Alabama Solution, Cover-Up, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, My Mom Jayne, Ocean with David Attenborough, The Perfect Neighbor, The Tale of Silyan
At BAFTA over the weekend, Nobody rose above favored The Perfect Neighbor. In this doc derby, PGA has often shown a lean toward the most high profile project and that would be Neighbor. I’ll go with it with the caveat that this category can be unpredictable.
WINNER: The Perfect Neighbor
Runner-Up: The Alabama Solution
Outstanding Producer of Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures
The Bad Guys 2, Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle, Elio, KPop Demon Hunters, Zootopia 2
I find myself tempted to go with Zootopia 2 in an upset, but I can’t bet against juggernaut KPop.
