Box Office Predictions: August 4-6

Blogger’s Note (08/03): On eve of debut, revising Dark Tower down significantly

The month of August begins at the box office with three new releases hitting multiplexes: the long in the works Stephen King adaptation The Dark Tower with Idris Elba and Matthew McConaughey, Kathryn Bigelow’s 1960s set racial drama Detroit, and Halle Berry’s oft delayed thriller Kidnap. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/07/26/the-dark-tower-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/07/26/detroit-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/07/26/kidnap-box-office-prediction/

Over the past week, I have considerably revised my Dark Tower estimate down from a mid 30s debut to now mid 20s. That should be enough to get it to #1, however.

Detroit is garnering highly positive reviews and could certainly over perform, but I’ve got it pegged in the low double digits with a likelihood it plays well through the month. That might be good for anywhere between third and fifth – depending on holdover activity for Emoji Movie and Girls Trip. 

Kidnap could surprise (no one thought Berry’s The Call would do the business it did), but I’m not projecting much for it. My $6.8M estimate puts it outside the top five.

As for holdovers, Dunkirk should slide to second after two weeks on top. Animated movies typically suffer smallish drops in their sophomore weekend, but The Emoji Movie could be an exception to the rule after its dismal reviews and so-so B Cinemascore grade. Girls Trip should continue to impress in week #3.

And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend ahead:

1. The Dark Tower

Predicted Gross: $18.4 million

2. Dunkirk

Predicted Gross: $15.5 million (representing a drop of 42%)

3. Girls Trip 

Predicted Gross: $12.9 million (representing a drop of 34%)

4. Detroit

Predicted Gross: $11.6 million

5. The Emoji Movie

Predicted Gross: $11.4 million (representing a drop of 54%)

 

Box Office Results (July 28-30)

Christopher Nolan’s acclaimed Dunkirk was the first pic since Wonder Woman to stay atop the charts for two weeks in a row as it grossed $26.6 million (under my $32.8M projection) for a two-week total of $101 million.

The Emoji Movie settled for second place with $24.5 million, a bit below my $28.4M forecast. As mentioned, poor reviews and word-of-mouth could keep this from performing well in subsequent weekends.

Girls Trip continued its fantastic run as the comedy of the summer with $19.6 million compared to my $17.3M estimate. Its earned $65 million thus far with the century mark firmly in its sights.

Charlize Theron’s spy thriller Atomic Blonde did rather underwhelming business with $18.2 million, on target with my $18.6M prediction. Mostly solid reviews couldn’t keep this from a mediocre start.

Spider-Man: Homecoming rounded out the top five with $13.2 million (I said $12M) for a $278M overall tally.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

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