September 13-15 Box Office Predictions

It Chapter Two looks to stay atop the charts as Hustlers could surprisingly give it a run for its money. We also have John Crowley’s drama The Goldfinch with Ansel Elgort and Nicole Kidman debuting. Both newbies premiered at the Toronto Film Festival over the weekend to vastly differing results. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/09/04/hustlers-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/09/05/the-goldfinch-box-office-prediction/

Hustlers has been showered with major critical acclaim and reviews suggesting costar Jennifer Lopez could be in line for her first Oscar nomination. I believe it has a legitimate chance at hitting $30 million or over, but I’m putting it just a tad under. We shall see if this gets revised up as buzz continues to build.

The Goldfinch had the opposite reaction. It looked like Oscar bait (unlike Hustlers), but critics have not been kind. My estimate for it has steadily dwindled down. It should secure third place, but with a quiet start.

Pennywise’s return to the silver screen opened on the lower end of expectations. Our first It chapter dipped 51% in its sophomore frame. I believe the sequel will experience a drop more in the mid 50s range.

And with that, my take on the top five:

1. It Chapter Two

Predicted Gross: $38.4 million

2. Hustlers

Predicted Gross: $31.5 million

3. The Goldfinch

Predicted Gross: $5.7 million

4. Angel Has Fallen

Predicted Gross: $3.4 million

5. Good Boys

Predicted Gross: $3.2 million

Box Office Results (September 68)

It Chapter Two dominated our first autumn movie weekend. The lengthy horror sequel took in $91 million. As mentioned, that is at the lower end of projections and below my take of $109.7 million. The pic still managed to grab the second biggest September haul and #2 overall horror starting gross of all time behind… It (which floated to $123.4 million out of the gate).

Angel Has Fallen was second with $5.9 million. My prediction? $5.9 million! Total is $53 million.

Good Boys took third at $5.4 million (I said $4.9 million) and it stands at a solid $66 million.

The Lion King was fourth with $4.3 million compared to my $3.8 million estimate for an overall massive tally of $529 million.

Hobbs & Shaw rounded out the top five with $3.8 million, ahead of my $3 million forecast. It’s up to $164 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

September 6-8 Box Office Predictions

It’s all about It this weekend as the fall box office kicks off and Pennywise returns to terrorize The Losers Club in It Chapter Two. The Stephen King adapted sequel looks to dominate the marketplace with a potential nine figure debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction post here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/08/27/it-chapter-two-box-office-prediction/

Two years ago on the same post Labor Day frame, It blew away expectations with a massive $123.4 million premiere. Breaking the opening records for September and the horror genre, anticipation is certainly present for the follow up. Reviews aren’t quite as strong this time around and that could mean a slight dip. Yet I’m still going with a starting gross of over $100 million.

No studio bothered to provide direct competition, so the rest of the top 5 will be made up of summer holdovers. None of them should register in the double digits as the demonic clown will be the main attraction.

Here’s how I have the top five playing out:

1. It Chapter Two

Predicted Gross: $109.7 million

2. Angel Has Fallen

Predicted Gross: $5.9 million

3. Good Boys

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

4. The Lion King

Predicted Gross: $3.8 million

5. Hobbs & Shaw

Predicted Gross: $3 million

Box Office Results (August 30September 2)

Before the It arrival, it was a typically quiet Labor Day weekend as Angel Has Fallen kept its place atop the charts with a four day gross of $15.3 million, a tad under my $16.1 million estimate. The two week total is $44 million.

Good Boys remained in second with $12.1 million (I said $13.1 million) for $59 million overall.

The summer season ruler Disney had The Lion King in third with $9.3 million, on par with my $9.8 million projection for $523 million in the coffers.

Hobbs & Shaw was fourth with $8.4 million compared to my $9.2 million prediction. Tally is $159 million.

Overcomer rounded out the top five at $7.7 million. I went higher with $9 million. The faith based sports drama has earned $19 million.

Finally, the David Oyelowo Blumhouse thriller Don’t Let Go tanked in 15th place with a meager $2.9 million. I was more generous at $4.5 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

August 30-September 2 Box Office Predictions

It’s Labor Day weekend as the summer movie season draws to a close. This is typically one of the more unexceptional holiday frames at the box office and 2019 should be no different. Blumhouse is putting out the supernatural thriller Don’t Let Go with David Oyelowo and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/08/24/dont-let-go-box-office-prediction/

My four-day forecast for $4.5 million for Go takes it well out of top 5 contention. Instead we should see Angel Has Fallen managing a second weekend atop the charts after it rose above expectations, including my own.

Good Boys should stay put in second. The rest of the top five could get interesting. This past weekend, we saw numbers 3-6 separated by a mere $100k. I expect that to continue here. Worthy of note is that these holdover summer offerings often see an increase in their grosses due to the extra day.

And with that, my take on the top 5 and take note that these are Friday to Monday numbers:

1. Angel Has Fallen

Predicted Gross: $16.1 million

2. Good Boys

Predicted Gross: $13.1 million

3. The Lion King

Predicted Gross: $9.8 million

4. Hobbs & Shaw

Predicted Gross: $9.2 million

5. Overcomer

Predicted Gross: $9 million

Box Office Results (August 2325)

As mentioned, action threequel Angel Has Fallen exceeded projections with a solid $21.3 million, easily ahead of my $15.2 million forecast. That’s only $300k under predecessor London Has Fallen, reversing this season’s trend of follow-ups falling short of what came before.

Good Boys was second with $11.6 million (I said $12.5 million) for a pleasing two week tally of $41 million.

Faith based sports drama Overcomer topped its entire budget in third with $8.1 million, slightly overcoming my $7.4 million prediction.

Hobbs & Shaw was fourth with $8 million, on pace with my guesstimate of $7.9 million. Total is $147 million.

The Lion King rounded out the high five and also made $8 million (I said $7.5 million) for a massive haul of $510 million.

Ready or Not debuted in sixth with… $8 million. The acclaimed horror comedy slashed past my $5.8 million estimate. Since its Wednesday rollout, earnings are $11 million and that’s above my $7.7 million projection.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

August 23-25 Box Office Predictions

Expect a rather sleepy weekend at the box office as the dog days of August roll along. We have three releases ahead of us as action threequel Angel Has Fallen, sports themed Christian drama Overcomer, and critically hailed black comedy Ready or Not debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/08/13/angel-has-fallen-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/08/14/overcomer-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/08/16/ready-or-not-box-office-prediction/

While I do have Angel flying to the top spot, I have performing under the premieres of predecessors Olympus and London Has Fallen. I think there’s a chance it goes even lower and finds itself in a race for #1 with the second weekend of Good Boys (which surpassed all prognoses this weekend).

Overcomer is an interesting one. It’s from the director of War Room, which performed spectacularly four summers ago. These faith based pics have a history to over perform, though that’s not always guaranteed. I’m giving it the five spot behind the fourth weekend of Hobbs & Shaw and sixth weekend of The Lion King.

I am not seeking an impressive gross for Ready or Not despite its solid reviews. It’s out on Wednesday. My $5.8 million traditional Friday to Sunday estimate and $7.7 million five-day projection leaves it outside my top five.

And with that, my take on the weekend ahead:

1. Angel Has Fallen

Predicted Gross: $15.2 million

2. Good Boys

Predicted Gross: $12.5 million

3. Hobbs & Shaw

Predicted Gross: $7.9 million

4. The Lion King

Predicted Gross: $7.5 million

5. Overcomer

Predicted Gross: $7.4 million

Box Office Results (August 1618)

It was a frame that saw five new releases and if it wasn’t named Good Boys, it didn’t do well. The aforementioned preteen comedy took in $21.4 million, way beyond my $14.3 million prediction. Boys is the first R rated comedy to hit #1 in over three years and it should manage to leg out decently.

Hobbs & Shaw was second with $14.1 million, a touch more than my $12.8 million estimate. It’s at $133 million.

The Lion King took third at $12.3 million (I said $11.1 million) for a whopping $496 million overall.

The Angry Birds Movie 2, which I said would be #1, struggled in fourth with just $10.3 million from Friday to Sunday and $16 million since its Tuesday opening. That’s well below my expectations of $17.2 million and $25.4 million, respectively.

Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark rounded out the top five in weekend #2 with $10 million. My prediction? $10 million! Tally is $40 million.

Dora and the Lost City of Gold mined $8.5 million in its sophomore outing for sixth (I said $9.3 million). The unimpressive total is $33 million.

47 Meters Down: Uncaged was lost at sea in seventh place with $8.4 million. I was higher at $10.2 million. The shark sequel couldn’t match the $11 million plus earned by its predecessor two summers ago.

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood was eighth with $7.6 million, in line with my $7.1 million estimate. The Quentin Tarantino flick stands at $114 million.

I incorrectly had The Art of Racing in the Rain outside the top ten, but it was ninth with $4.5 million. Two-week gross is $17 million.

The Bruce Springsteen inspired dramedy Blinded by the Light failed to find an audience in tenth with $4.3 million (I gave it more at $5.8 million).

Finally, Richard Linklater’s Where’d You Go, Bernadette performed even weaker in 11th with a measly $3.4 million compared to my $5.6 million forecast.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

August 16-18 Box Office Predictions

For the second weekend in a row, we have a quintet of new titles populating the marketplace. And like those previous five pictures, all could struggle to break the $20 million mark with some failing to reach double digits. We have the animated sequel The Angry Birds Movie 2, raunchy preteen comedy Good Boys, shark sequel 47 Meters Down: Uncaged, British musical dramedy Blinded by the Light, and Richard Linklater directed mystery comedy Where’d You Go, Bernadette with Cate Blanchett all out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/08/06/the-angry-birds-movie-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/08/07/good-boys-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/08/08/47-meters-down-uncaged-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/08/11/blinded-by-the-light-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/08/11/whered-you-go-bernadette-box-office-prediction/

The Birds follow-up debuts tomorrow in theaters. Even with that early start, I believe the Friday to Sunday traditional gross should be enough for it to fly into the top spot. That said, I have it well under the $33 million debut of its 2016 predecessor.

The earnings of Boys and Meters might be similar, but my projection puts the former ahead. There could be a legit battle between these two newcomers with the third frame of Hobbs & Shaw, the sophomore frame of Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark, and the fifth weekend of The Lion King. In other words, the placing of the top five could be extremely fluid.

I’m anticipating mid single digits for both Blinded and Bernadette, leaving them well outside the top five and behind Dora and the Lost City of Gold and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.

So while this column is normally estimating the top half of the top 10, I’m doubling it given all the new product:

1. The Angry Birds Movie 2

Predicted Gross: $17.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $25.4 million (Tuesday to Sunday)

2. Good Boys

Predicted Gross: $14.3 million

3. Hobbs & Shaw

Predicted Gross: $12.8 million

4. The Lion King

Predicted Gross: $11.1 million

5. 47 Meters Down: Uncaged

Predicted Gross: $10.2 million

6. Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark

Predicted Gross: $10 million

7. Dora and the Lost City of Gold

Predicted Gross: $9.3 million

8. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million

9. Blinded by the Light

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million

10. Where’d You Go, Bernadette

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million

Box Office Results (August 911)

Hobbs & Shaw parked in first for the second weekend with $25.2 million, a smidge below my $27.5 million forecast. The two week tally stands at $108 million.

In a weekend where I assumed Dora and the Lost City of Gold would fare best among the five newcomers, it was Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark achieving that status. It exceeded most expectations at $20.9 million, well beyond my $14.3 million take.

The Lion King was third with $20.2 million. My prediction? $20.2 million! It now is Disney’s largest earning live action title at $473 million.

Aforementioned Dora was fourth with a middling $17.4 million, falling below my projection of $19.7 million.

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood hit the century mark and rounded out the top five. Earning $11.6 million (I said $11.3 million), the total is a cool $100 million.

The Art of Racing in the Rain premiered in sixth with a meh $8.1 million. Good news for me for the second time as I said $8.1 million.

Melissa McCarthy and Tiffany Haddish learned audiences wouldn’t turn out for them in a crime thriller. The poorly reviewed The Kitchen was seventh with just $5.5 million compared to my more generous $8.3 million prediction.

Finally, Brian Banks opened in 11th with $2.1 million. I was close at $2.3 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

 

August 9-11 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Note (08/07): My Scary Stories prediction has risen from $10.7 million to $14.3 million

After several weeks of one giant blockbuster hopeful debuting and having the weekend to itself, a quintet of mid tier titles open in this second weekend of August. We have the kid friendly Dora and the Lost City of Gold based on the Nickelodeon series, PG-13 horror flick Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark, Melissa McCarthy/Tiffany Haddish crime thriller The Kitchen, dog tale The Art of Racing in the Rain, and wrongful imprisonment drama Brian Banks all out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on all of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/07/31/dora-and-the-lost-city-of-gold-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/07/31/scary-stories-to-tell-in-the-dark-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/07/31/the-kitchen-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/07/31/the-art-of-racing-in-the-rain-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/08/04/brian-banks-box-office-prediction/

Some weekends, it’s fairly easy to project the order of the top five. This isn’t one of them. A couple of things seem highly likely. After a decent start that was still on the bottom end of expectations, Hobbs & Shaw should manage to repeat in first place. I will say a drop of over 50% is where I see it landing in the sophomore frame.

Dora and the Lost City of Gold seems poised to have to biggest premiere of the five newbies. However, my high teens projection puts it in third behind The Lion King.

I have Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark, The Kitchen, and The Art of Racing in the Rain all in the high single digits to low double digits range and all behind the third weekend of Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.

As for Brian Banks, its lack of promotion and lowly 1500 theater count means my $2.3 million prediction means it shouldn’t even compete for the top five.

So on this weekend of multiple new releases, my top seven take:

1. Hobbs & Shaw

Predicted Gross: $27.5 million

2. The Lion King

Predicted Gross: $20.2 million

3. Dora and the Lost City of Gold

Predicted Gross: $19.7 million

4. Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark

Predicted Gross: $14.3 million

5. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Predicted Gross: $11.3 million

6. The Kitchen

Predicted Gross: $8.3 million

7. The Art of Racing in the Rain

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million

Box Office Results (August 24)

Fast and Furious spin-off Hobbs & Shaw cruised over holdover competition as anticipated, but it couldn’t match the starting earnings of the last several traditional franchise entries. It took in $60 million, under my take of $72.6 million.

The Lion King was second after two weeks of dominance with $38.5 million, right on pace with my $38.7 million projection. The massive total stands at $431 million.

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood was third in weekend #2 with $20 million, in line with my $20.7 million prediction. The two week haul is $78 million.

SpiderMan: Far From Home took fourth with $7.9 million (I said $7.1 million) for $360 million overall.

Toy Story 4 rounded out the top five with $7.3 million (I was slightly lower with $6.6 million) for a take of $410 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

August 2-4 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Note (07/31): My Hobbs & Shaw estimate has dropped from $82.6 million to $72.6 million

It might be the last blockbuster of the summer 2019 season as Hobbs & Shaw debuts in the first frame of August. Dwayne Johnson and Jason Statham headline the first spin-off of the Fast and Furious franchise. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/07/24/hobbs-shaw-box-office-prediction/

While I don’t have it quite reaching the heights of the last three traditional Fast features, my low 80s projection revs it up for an easy and solid #1 debut, knocking The Lion King from its two week perch atop the charts.

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood should slip to third after a fine start (more on that below) with mega hit holdovers SpiderMan: Far From Home and Toy Story 4 filling out the top five.

There is a potential wild card this weekend with The Farewell. The Awkwafina led comedy has been a winner with critics and performed quite well in limited release. It’s slated for nationwide expansion on Friday. However, without a theater count, I’m not totally comfortable placing it in the top five. That could change and I’ll update my post if so.

Here’s how I have the weekend playing out:

1. Hobbs & Shaw

Predicted Gross: $72.6 million

2. The Lion King

Predicted Gross: $38.7 million

3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Predicted Gross: $20.7 million

4. SpiderMan: Far From Home

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million

5. Toy Story 4

Predicted Gross: $6.6 million

Box Office Results (July 2628)

The Lion King, as anticipated, had no trouble staying put in first in weekend #2, though it did drop a bit further than many (including I) figured. The Disney smash grossed $76.6 million (down 60%) compared to my $86.5 million take. In ten days, King has brought in a ransom of $351 million.

Quentin Tarantino achieved the biggest traditional Friday to Sunday debut of his career with Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. With $41 million (I was a touch lower at $38.7 million), the film capitalized on great reviews and the considerable star wattage of Leonardo Dicaprio, Brad Pitt, and Margot Robbie. It will be interesting to see how Hollywood legs out with a so-so B CinemaScore grade in future weekends.

SpiderMan: Far From Home was third with $12.4 million (I said $13 million) to bring its tally to $344 million.

Toy Story 4 had the four spot at $10.4 million, in line with my $10.8 million prediction. Total is $396 million.

I incorrectly had Crawl outside the high five, but it was fifth with $4 million to bring its three week earnings to $31 million.

Yesterday was sixth with $3 million (I went with $3.6 million) for an impressive $63 million overall.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…