Taking a break from their high profile franchises (albeit briefly), Zendaya and Robert Pattinson headline the relationship tale The Drama on April 3rd. Written and directed by Kristoffer Borgli (Dream Scenario) and described as both a dark comedy and romantic thriller, it will try and find a large female audience over the Easter holiday. Mamoudou Athie, Alana Haim, Hailey Gates, and Zoë Winters provide support.
The film’s leads will be seen together in the summer via The Odyssey and this December in Dune: Part Three. Those will certainly outgross this one. However, The Drama has breakout potential due to its star power and counter programming ability while The Super Mario Galaxy Movie and Project Hail Mary dominate the charts.
A worst case scenario might be double digits or low teens and failing to match the $15 million that Zendaya’s Challengers opened with two years ago. A dream scenario would be anything beyond $20 million. I think that’s achievable, but I’ll project mid to higher teens.
The Drama opening weekend prediction: $16.7 million
For my The Super Mario Galaxy Movie prediction, click here:
Illumination Entertainment looks to light up the Easter frame with The Super Mario Galaxy Movie on April 1st. The animated comedic adventure is the follow-up to 2023’s The Super Mario Bros. Movie which debuted over the same holiday to fantastic results. Aaron Horvath and Michael Jelenic are back co-directing with Chris Pratt, Anya Taylor-Joy, Charlie Day, Jack Black, Keegan- Michael Key, and Kevin Michael Richardson reprising the voices of their Nintendo character roles. Newcomers behind the mic include Benny Safdie, Donald Glover, Issa Rae, Luis Guzmán, and Brie Larson.
As mentioned, 2023’s original was a massive blockbuster. In early April, it too rolled out over an expanded five-day period to top level results. The three-day start was $146.3 million with $204.6 million when counting Wednesday and Thursday. It would leg out to $574 million and become the year’s second largest domestic earner behind Barbie.
With a short lag time for the sequel, a best case scenario might be a premiere on par or slightly better than its predecessor. I suspect it might coming in lower, but still with impressive numbers.
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie opening weekend prediction: $126.5 million (Friday to Sunday); $172.2 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Project Hail Mary touched down with fantastic results as it looks to easily repeat in 1st place as March closes out. Horror comedy They Will Kill You is the sole wide release newcomer and my detailed prediction post on it can be accessed here:
A best case scenario for They Will Kill You might be a second place finish in the low double digits or low teens. I’m going lower in the mid single digits for a third place start.
Space set Hail Mary opened at the top end of its expected range for 2026’s highest premiere (more on that below). It scored the second largest debut for a non-franchise, non-sequel behind Oppenheimer and Ryan Gosling’s second best unveiling after Barbie. I suspect the sophomore dip will be in the mid 40s (similar to Oppenheimer).
Hoppers should remain in the runner-up position as it heads into the Easter frame. The 4-5 spots should be close between Reminders of Him and Ready or Not 2: Here I Come after its meh debut.
Here’s how I see the top 5 shaking out:
1. Project Hail Mary
Predicted Gross: $44.8 million
2. Hoppers
Predicted Gross: $12 million
3. They Will Kill You
Predicted Gross: $6.3 million
4. Reminders of Him
Predicted Gross: $4.3 million
5. Ready or Not 2: Here I Come
Predicted Gross: $4.2 million
Box Office Results (March 20-22)
Project Hail Mary reached for the stars and achieved a remarkable launch with $80.5 million, zooming beyond my $69 million prediction. With solid reviews and awards buzz, it turned out to be the event film that Amazon MGM was hoping for. The future looks bright as it faces no obstacles topping the charts again.
Hoppers, after two weeks in 1st, was second with $17.8 million. That’s on target with my $18.4 million call as Disney/Pixar’s latest hit $120 million after three weeks.
Indian action sequel Dhurandhar: The Revenge managed bragging rights by outgrossing the Ready or Not follow-up. With the second best per theater average, it made $10 million compared to my $7.8 million forecast with $14 million in the bank since its Wednesday bow.
Ready or Not 2: Here I Come stumbled in fourth with $9 million, under my $11.2 million take. The horror sequel showed that most genre fans fell on the not ready side.
Reminders of Him rounded out the top five with $8 million (I said $9.2 million) for a two-week tally of $33 million.
Scream 7 was sixth with $4.3 million. I went with $5.3 million as the latest franchise entry’s four-week earnings rose to $114 million.
Atlanta and Joker star Zazie Beetz gets a headlining role in They Will Kill You on March 27th. The horror comedy debuted at South by Southwest and is directed and cowritten by Kirill Sokolov. Set at a hotel with its set of literal demons, the supporting cast includes Myha’la, Paterson Joseph, Tom Felton, Heather Graham, and Patricia Arquette.
Fans of the genre have had plenty to feast on lately via Scream 7 and Ready or Not 2: Here I Come the prior weekend. Reviews thus far give it a reassuring 76% on Rotten Tomatoes. I do struggle to sense any breakout potential. High single digits might be its ceiling, but I’m inclined to think mid single digits with a gross similar to last year’s Death of a Unicorn.
They Will Kill You opening weekend prediction: $6.3 million
Blogger’s Update (03/19): Upping my Project Hail Mary prediction from $59 million to $69 million and adding Dhurandharthe Revenge to the #5 spot at $7.8 million.
Amazon MGM space adventure Project Hail Mary looks to dominate the box office this weekend while Searchlight searches for horror fans to boost Ready or Not 2: Here I Come. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
With high star reviews, Mary appears poised for an impressive showing out of the gate (it will need it with the reported $200M+ budget). My prediction has it reaching nearly $60 million as it hopes for a long run in the coming weeks.
Barring a significant overperformance, Ready or Not 2: Here I Come should place third in low double digits behind the third frame of current champ Hoppers.
The remainder of the top five should go to holdovers Reminders of Him in its sophomore frame (more on its solid performance below) and Scream 7.
Here’s how I see it shaking out:
1. Project Hail Mary
Predicted Gross: $69 million
2. Hoppers
Predicted Gross: $18.4 million
3. Ready or Not 2: Here I Come
Predicted Gross: $11.2 million
4. Reminders of Him
Predicted Gross: $9.2 million
5. Dhurandhar The Revenge
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million
6. Scream 7
Predicted Gross: $5.3 million
Box Office Results (March 13-15)
As anticipated, Disney/Pixar’s Hoppers stayed in 1st place while newcomers managed to outdo my projections. Hoppers made off with $28.6 million, just ahead of my $27.2 million prediction. The two-week earnings jumped to $86 million.
Reminders of Him, the romantic drama based on the Colleen Hoover novel, came in at the high end of expectations with $17.9 million in second. That’s well beyond my $10.4 million call. Look for it to drop in the high 40s in its second week.
Low-budget Canadian horror pic Undertone was third with $9.3 million. Like Reminders, it started out at the top of its expected range and past my meager $4.9 million take. I do think it will drop out of the top 5 this weekend with a percentage dip in the high 50s or more.
Scream 7 was fourth with $8.5 million, ahead of my $6.9 million forecast for a three-week tally of $106 million. It will match the $108 million take of its 2023 predecessor this week.
Goat rounded out the top five with $4.6 million (I said $4.3 million) as the animated sports tale is nearly at nine digits with $90 million.
Finally, The Bride! plummeted 70% in weekend #2 with just $2 million. I was more generous at $2.6 million. The two-week total for the WB flop is $11 million.
Fox Searchlight looks for horror fans to make a return engagement with Ready or Not 2: Here I Come on March 20th. Combining laughs with gore, Matt Bettinelli-Olpin and Tyler Gillett return to this scary franchise after making a detour rebooting the Scream series. Samara Weaving is back headlining with a new supporting cast including Kathryn Newton, Sarah Michelle Gellar, Shawn Hatosy, David Cronenberg (!), and Elijah Wood.
Back in late summer 2019, the eat the rich first edition made $8 million in its opening frame ($11 million over the five-day as it debuted on a Wednesday). It held up decently for its genre with $28 million domestically. I’m a little unsure if audiences are clamoring for a sequel. Unlike the recent Scream 7, I don’t look for this to exceed expectations.
I’ll say this gets beyond $10 million for starters though not by much.
Ready or Not 2: Here I Come opening weekend prediction: $11.2 million
Project Hail Mary looks to throw down impressive grosses for Amazon MGM when it debuts March 20th. Drew Goddard adapts Andy Weir’s 2021 novel with Phil Lord and Christopher Miller directing. The sci-fi adventures stars Ryan Gosling with a supporting cast including Sandra Hüller, Lionel Boyce, Ken Leung, and Milana Vayntrub.
Critics have complimented the production on its Spielberg vibes with Rotten Tomatoes at 95% and 80 on Metacritic. With a reported budget north of $200 million, the studio is hoping for a high launch. Encouraging early word-of-mouth should assist.
One scenario is that it plays similar to 2015’s The Martian which is also based on a Weir book. That space tale with Matt Damon opened to $54 million. A best case might be closer to $80 million, but I’ll hedge and say high 60s is likelier.
Project Hail Mary opening weekend prediction: $69 million
For my Ready or Not 2: Here I Come prediction, click here:
Two new features vie for audience attention as romantic drama Reminders of Him and low-budget Canadian horror flick Undertone make their way to multiplexes. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
It is highly unlikely that either comes close to bouncing Hoppers from a repeat performance in first. Reminders, based on a Colleen Hoover novel, should be second though I have it just topping $10 million for a subpar start.
I’m not expecting much from Undertone, but it could manage a 4th or 5th place showing considering The Bride! should plummet out of the top 5 after a dismal debut (more on that below).
Hoppers, as mentioned, should be #1 assuming a slide in the high 30s or low 40s with Scream 7 and Goat placing third and fourth.
Here’s how I see the top 6 shaking out:
1. Hoppers
Predicted Gross: $27.2 million
2. Reminder of Him
Predicted Gross: $10.4 million
3. Scream 7
Predicted Gross: $6.9 million
4. Undertone
Predicted Gross: $4.9 million
5. Goat
Predicted Gross: $4.3 million
6. The Bride!
Predicted Gross: $2.6 million
Box Office Results (March 6-8)
Disney/Pixar had a commendable opening for an original title as Hoppers earned $45.3 million, slightly topping my $43.6 million prediction. That’s a cut above recent studio originals Elemental and Elio which both failed to reach $30 million in their unveilings.
Scream 7 was runner-up and dropped a severe 73% in weekend #2 to $17 million, under my $19.5 million call. The latest franchise entry is up to $93 million.
The Bride!, Maggie Gyllenhaal’s monster mash with Jessie Buckley and Christian Bale, failed to collect RSVPs with only $7 million in third. I projected more at $10.3 million. With a reported $85 million price tag, this is a costly dud for Warner Bros.
Goat was fourth with $6.4 million (I said $5.8 million) as the animated tale has amassed $83 million in four weeks.
Wuthering Heights rounded out the top five with $3.7 million, in range with my $3.4 million forecast. The period romance, in its fourth week, stands at $78 million.
A24 is looking for Undertone to scare up some business with the low-budget (reportedly $500k) Canadian horror pic dropping on March 13th. From writer/director Ian Tuason and starring Nina Kiri and Adam DiMarco, the distributor picked up the title after its premiere last summer at Fantasia Fest. At that time, it landed mostly solid reviews with 88% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 68 Metacritic.
That said, it’s hard to envision this having mass appeal as it should cater strictly to attentive genre followers. With no star power driving it and muted buzz, I suspect a debut under $5 million sounds about right.
Undertone opening weekend prediction: $4.9 million
Out Friday, romantic drama Reminders of Him is the latest entry in the expanding Colleen Hoover cinematic universe. Based on a 2022 novel by the YA author, Vanessa Caswill directs a cast led by Maika Monroe and Tyriq Withers. Costars include Rudy Pankow, country artist Lainey Wilson, Lauren Graham, and Bradley Whitford.
In 2024, the adaptation of Hoover’s best known work It Ends with Us was a scorching success. It debuted to $50 million on its way to $148 million domestically (and plenty of tabloid ink after its release thanks to Blake Lively and Justin Baldoni). Last fall, Regretting You (from a 2019 Hoover story) saw notably smaller numbers with a $13.7 million start and $49 million overall stateside.
The buzz for Him seems quiet and I’m estimating the downward trend will continue. I’ll project it barely tops $10 million.
Reminders of Him opening weekend prediction: $10.4 million
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