Box Office Predictions: October 23-25

It’s an extremely busy weekend at the box office as five new titles open up: the wide release of the acclaimed Steve Jobs, Vin Diesel’s The Last Witch Hunter, sixth franchise entry Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension, Bill Murray comedy Rock the Kasbah, and 80s cartoon live-action adaptation Jem and the Holograms. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

With the quintet of newbies premiering, it’s creating some real unpredictability as to what will come out on top, especially considering the fact that current champ Goosebumps could see a minimal decline in its second weekend due to the Halloween frame.

I’m going with Steve Jobs and its hot Oscar buzz coming out on top, but it could certainly debut a little lower than my estimate with meager drop-offs in subsequent weekends. The Last Witch Hunter could certainly over perform, though it appears unlikely Paranormal Activity has any shot at the top of the charts due to its lower theater count (my individual post on it explains further). Kasbah and Jem seem likely for single digit debuts outside the top five.

As for other holdovers, look for Bridge of Spies to have the tiniest decline of all unless Goosebumps holds up even better than my forecast. Guillermo del Toro’s Crimson Peak is likely to have the worst sophomore decline after its lackluster opening.

And with that, on a supremely unpredictable weekend, my estimates for the top ten:

Steve Jobs

Predicted Gross: $19.6 million

2. Goosebumps

Predicted Gross: $17.8 million (representing a drop of 25%)

3. The Last Witch Hunter

Predicted Gross: $15.8 million

4. The Martian

Predicted Gross: $12.5 million (representing a drop of 41%)

5. Bridge of Spies

Predicted Gross: $11.9 million (representing a drop of 22%)

6. Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension

Predicted Gross: $9.7 million

7. Rock the Kasbah

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million

8. Hotel Transylvania 2

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million (representing a drop of 39%)

9. Crimson Peak

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million (representing a drop of 53%)

10. Jem and the Holograms

Predicted Gross: $4.1 million

Box Office Results (October 16-18)

Kid friendly Goosebumps managed to knock The Martian off its two week perch on top as it grossed a solid $23.6 million, beyond my $19.4M projection. As mentioned, this should hold up well in weekend #2.

The Martian slipped to second with $21.3 million, a bit under my $24.6M forecast for a terrific three week total of $143M.

Landing in third was Steven Spielberg’s acclaimed Bridge of Spies, posting an OK $15.3 million (compared to my $21.2M estimate). The good news is that Spies should perform well throughout the fall with its own Academy Award buzz going for it.

Crimson Peak flopped in fourth place with just $13.1 million compared to my $15.8M prediction. This one more or less got lost in the shuffle and represents a disappointment for director Guillermo del Toro.

Hotel Transylvania 2 was fifth with $12.6 million, lower than my $16M projection and its total is at $136M.

Languishing in sixth is the bomb Pan with $5.8 million in its second weekend (I said $6.8M). Its embarrassing two week haul is at $25M.

Finally, faith based football drama Woodlawn debuted in ninth (as I predicted) with $4 million, right in line with my $4.3M estimate.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

Jem and the Holograms Box Office Prediction

Next weekend at the box office, we will finally get the answer to the following question: how much has America been clamoring for a Jem and the Holograms movie adaptation? The answer, I suspect, is not much.

Based on the 1980s animated TV series, Jem is a music infused fantasy starring mostly relative unknowns such as Aubrey Peeples (Jem), Stefanie Scott, and Hayley Kiyoko. Juliette Lewis figures into the mix somehow, too. The pic looks to bring in a younger female audience, but it’s unlikely they remember anything about the cartoon from 30 years ago.

Jem‘s saving grace is its teeny $5 million budget and at least Universal Pictures shouldn’t see much of a loss here. However, I’m skeptical it grosses even that small budget during its first weekend out. With five films opening wide next weekend, I anticipate this finishing last among them.

Jem and the Holograms opening weekend prediction: $4.1 million

For my The Last Witch Hunter prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/15/the-last-witch-hunter-box-office-prediction/

For my Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/16/paranormal-activity-the-ghost-dimension-box-office-prediction/

For my Steve Jobs prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/16/steve-jobs-box-office-prediction/

For my Rock the Kasbah prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/16/rock-the-kasbah-box-office-prediction/

Rock the Kasbah Box Office Prediction

Bill Murray headlines the comedy Rock the Kasbah, out next weekend and it hopes to join the many successful genre pics Mr. Murray has graced over the past three decades plus. Oscar winner Barry Levinson directs Murray as a has-been rock agent looking to reclaim his mojo in Afghanistan, of all places. The stellar supporting cast includes Bruce Willis, Kate Hudson, Zooey Deschanel, and Danny McBride.

Last year around the same time period, Murray’s St. Vincent opened to positive buzz and an eventual $44 million domestic gross. Rock the Kasbah may have trouble replicating that kind of business. For starters, the buzz on Kasbah isn’t as hot as that of Vincent and there’s also plenty of adult competition in the form of Steve Jobs and the second weekend of Bridge of Spies, among others. On the other hand, this really is the only comedy out there among lots of dramas and horror type flicks.

As I see it, this modestly budgeted $15 million pic might struggle to reach double digits in weekend number one and its best hope might be small drop-offs in subsequent weekends for a respectable gross.

Rock the Kasbah opening weekend prediction: $7.8 million

For my The Last Witch Hunter prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/15/the-last-witch-hunter-box-office-prediction/

For my Steve Jobs prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/16/steve-jobs-box-office-prediction/

For my Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/16/paranormal-activity-the-ghost-dimension-box-office-prediction/

For my Jem and the Holograms prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/16/jem-and-the-holograms-box-office-prediction/

Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension Box Office Prediction

It’s being billed as the final installment in a successful franchise that began in 2009 and this coming Friday marks the sixth entry in the Paranormal Activity series with The Ghost Dimension. Due to a number of factors, it’s probable that this franchise “finale” may go out with a bit of a whimper.

First off, the found footage horror pic furthers along a series of films that began losing its box office potency with its last effort, The Marked Ones. It opened in January of 2014 to $18.3 million on its way to a meager $32M domestic gross. For comparison sake, 2010’s Paranormal Activity 2 made $40 million out of the gate and ended up at $84M stateside. The third edition was the high point with a $52 million debut and $104M overall haul. The fourth Activity is when things started to decline with a $29 million opening and $53M overall take.

Perhaps even more importantly, The Ghost Dimension is rolling out on far less screens than its predecessors due to Paramount’s decision to release the pic only 17 days after its theatrical release. Many cinema chains have balked at that decision and simply chosen against allowing Dimension to play on their screens. It’s slated to be on about 1400 screens (the fifth entry debuted on over 2800).

Due to those factors, I’m predicting the ceiling for Dimension is low double digits and I’ll actually say it falls just short of that mark.

Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension opening weekend prediction: $9.7 million

For my The Last Witch Hunter prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/15/the-last-witch-hunter-box-office-prediction/

For my Steve Jobs prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/16/steve-jobs-box-office-prediction/

For my Rock the Kasbah prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/16/rock-the-kasbah-box-office-prediction/

For my Jem and the Holograms prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/16/jem-and-the-holograms-box-office-prediction/

Steve Jobs Box Office Prediction

The last time audiences were exposed to a film about Apple founder Steve Jobs, it was Ashton Kutcher playing him in 2013’s Jobs, which got mostly negative reviews and sputtered at the box office with only $16 million.

What a difference two years makes. This Friday comes Steve Jobs, with Oscar winning director Danny Boyle behind the camera and Oscar winning screenwriter Aaron Sorkin penning the script. Michael Fassbender plays the title role with Kate Winslet, Seth Rogen, and Jeff Daniels in the supporting cast. Since it premiered on the film festival circuit weeks ago, it’s been subject to fervent Oscar buzz. Chances are excellent that it will receive nominations for Picture, Director, Actor (Fassbender), and Supporting Actress (Winslet). Reviews have been strong.

All this positive buzz means Steve Jobs could gross the highest among the four other pictures it’s premiering against. The most obvious comparison for an opening weekend would be 2010’s The Social Network (also written by Sorkin), which debuted to over $22 million. Jobs could certainly reach that margin, but Social Network did have considerably less competition in its first weekend. I’ll predict this gets to high teens out of the gate and settles in for a nice run throughout the awards season.

Steve Jobs opening weekend prediction: $19.6 million

For my The Last Witch Hunter prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/15/the-last-witch-hunter-box-office-prediction/

For my Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/16/paranormal-activity-the-ghost-dimension-box-office-prediction/

For my Rock the Kasbah prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/16/rock-the-kasbah-box-office-prediction/

For my Jem and the Holograms prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/16/jem-and-the-holograms-box-office-prediction/

The Last Witch Hunter Box Office Prediction

Vin Diesel puts the car in park and stars in his first non franchise sequel in over seven years as The Last Witch Hunter hits screens next Friday. The supernatural action pic features Diesel in the title role with Rose Leslie, Elijah Wood, and Michael Caine in the supporting cast.

Other than his voice only role in 2014’s Guardians of the Galaxy, Diesel’s screen appearances in the last few years has been limited to the Fast and Furious series and the third entry in the Riddick series. The last time he starred in a franchise hopeful that wasn’t ongoing was 2008’s Babylon A.D., which stumbled with a $9.4 million debut.

Diesel seems confident in Hunter‘s box office appeal and has hinted that a sequel is forthcoming. However, in order for that to occur, this needs to at least come close to reaching its reported $90 million budget. That could be tricky stateside. There’s a lot of competition out there and some supernatural genre fans could turn their attention instead to the latest Paranormal Activity flick, which opens against it.

I’ll predict The Last Witch Hunter manages a gross in the mid teens, which is likely not enough to scare up anticipation for Diesel’s sequel. There’s always Fast 8.

The Last Witch Hunter opening weekend prediction: $15.8 million

For my Steve Jobs prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/16/steve-jobs-box-office-prediction/

For my Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/16/paranormal-activity-the-ghost-dimension-box-office-prediction/

For my Rock the Kasbah prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/16/rock-the-kasbah-box-office-prediction/

For my Jem and the Holograms prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/16/jem-and-the-holograms-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: October 16-18

It’s a very bustling weekend at the box office as four new titles make their debuts: Steven Spielberg’s Cold War thriller Bridge of Spies with Tom Hanks, family friendly Goosebumps, Guillermo del Toro’s gothic horror offering Crimson Peak and faith based football drama Woodlawn. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each one of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/08/bridge-of-spies-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/08/goosebumps-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/08/crimson-peak-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/12/woodlawn-box-office-prediction/

Even with the slew of high profile premieres, they all could fall behind Ridley Scott’s critically acclaimed and audience pleasing The Martian, which looks to three peat. After a great second weekend, the pic is likely to only lose about a third of its audience once again. As I see it, only Bridge of Spies and or Goosebumps could dethrone it, but I’m doubtful.

As for other holdovers, Hotel Transylvania 2 should continue its stellar run in week #4 while box office bomb Pan will probably lose over half its audience, leaving it flailing in sixth place.

And with that, my top 6 projections for what promises to be a fascinating weekend:

The Martian

Predicted Gross: $24.6 million (representing a drop of 33%)

2. Bridge of Spies

Predicted Gross: $21.2 million

3. Goosebumps

Predicted Gross: $19.4 million

4. Hotel Transylvania 2

Predicted Gross: $16 million (representing a drop of 31%)

5. Crimson Peak

Predicted Gross: $15.8 million

6. Pan

Predicted Gross: $6.8 million (representing a drop of 55%)

My prediction for Woodlawn, opening on a relatively low 1500 screens, is $4.3 million and that probably puts it in ninth place.

BOX OFFICE RESULTS (OCTOBER 9-11)

As expected, The Martian kept rolling along with its impressive numbers while new entries to the weekend all failed to gain an audience. The Ridley Scott/Matt Damon sci fi blockbuster added $37 million to its coffers, right on pace with my $36.8M estimate to bring its total to $108 million (matching its reported budget).

Hotel Transylvania 2 remained in runner up position with $20.4 million, in line with my $21.7M projection for a three week haul of $116 million.

Another family offering, Peter Pan origin tale Pan, stumbled badly to the tune of a $15.3 million start. This is below my $17.6M prediction. With a rumored budget of $150 million, this represents a massive bomb for Warner Bros and it will struggle to even earn a third of that budget domestically. Ouch.

Holdovers populated spots 4-6: The Intern with $8.6 million compared to my $8M estimate to bring its total to $49 million; Sicario with $7.5 million compared to my $6.9M estimate to bring its total to nearly $27 million; and Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials with $5.3 million for a $70 million overall gross. I incorrectly had Maze outside the top six.

That’s because I gave far too much credit to Robert Zemeckis’s The Walk, which expanded nationwide and posted a paltry seventh place showing of only $3.7 million. I predicted $11.9M. Oops. This easily gave the Oscar winning director of Forrest Gump the worst opening of his long career and pretty much snuffed out any chance of the critically respected effort garnering Academy Awards attention.

Finally, the Andrew Garfield/Michael Shannon thriller 99 Homes opened in limited fashion. I said it’d eek out a $1.8 million gross, but it managed just $647,000.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

Woodlawn Box Office Prediction

This Friday, the faith based sports drama Woodlawn hits screens and it’s the latest in a steady stream of pictures in the genre to roll out. The desegregation football true story features Sean Astin, Jon Voight and Sherri Shepherd and comes from the makers of Moms’ Night Out, which made just $4.2 million in its debut in May 2014.

Woodlawn is slated to premiere on around 1500 screens, a relatively low number. In August of 2014, another Christian themed gridiron drama, When the Game Stands Tall, opened to $8.3 million on over 2600 screens. It would stand to reason that Woodlawn’s gross will be quite a bit lower, due to theater count alone.

Add it all up and I have it opening to just over what Moms’ Night Out earned for a pretty muted start.

Woodlawn opening weekend prediction: $4.3 million

For my Bridge of Spies prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/08/bridge-of-spies-box-office-prediction/

For my Goosebumps prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/08/goosebumps-box-office-prediction/

For my Crimson Peak prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/08/crimson-peak-box-office-prediction/

Crimson Peak Box Office Prediction

Guillermo del Toro has earned his reputation as one of the most visionary directors working today with credits including the Hellboy pics, Pan’s Labyrinth, and Pacific Rim. Next weekend comes his latest effort: the gothic horror tale Crimson Peak, which features Alice in Wonderland star Mia Wasikowska, Tom Hiddleston, Jessica Chastain, and Charlie Hunnam.

The $55 million dollar production isn’t expected to reach the box office numbers of the Hellboy movies or Pacific Rim. It doesn’t help that competition is rather fierce with Bridge of Spies and Goosebumps opening the same day with The Martian in its third weekend. Crimson Peak could get somewhat lost in the shuffle for film goers that aren’t del Toro or horror aficionados. Strong reviews could help (they haven’t yet been released but I wouldn’t be surprised if it earns solid notices), but I still will predict this peaks at mid to high teens for its debut.

Crimson Peak opening weekend prediction: $15.8 million

For my Bridge of Spies prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/08/bridge-of-spies-box-office-prediction/

For my Goosebumps prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/08/goosebumps-box-office-prediction/

For my Woodlawn prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/12/woodlawn-box-office-prediction/

Goosebumps Box Office Prediction

Based on the well known series of children’s books by R.L. Stine, the family friendly Goosebumps opens in theaters next weekend, hoping to bring in a sizable kid crowd. The film is directed by Rob Letterman and Jack Black, who teamed up in 2010 for Gulliver’s Travels, which failed at the box office to the tune of $42 million.

This time around, they appear to have fairly positive word of mouth on their side with an 82% Rotten Tomatoes score and a sequel possibly in the works. It also doesn’t hurt that its release date is close to Halloween. Family audiences turned out big time for Hotel Transylvania 2, however, so whether there’s a major clamor for scarily themed entertainment remains to be seen.

I could envision this opening to around the same number that Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day made last October: $18.3 million. I’ll say Goosebumps just tops that for a respectable start and we’ll see how it plays in future weekends.

Goosebumps opening weekend prediction: $19.4 million