Gringo Box Office Prediction

Gringo is action comedy laced with marijuana humor and it hits theaters next weekend. The film marks the directorial debut of Nash Edgerton (previously known for being a stunt coordinator). The cast includes David Oyelowo, Charlize Theron, Nash’s brother Joel Edgerton, Thandie Newton, Amanda Seyfried, Sharlto Copley, and the King of Pop’s daughter Paris Jackson.

Distributed by Amazon Studios and STX Entertainment, I’m having trouble envisioning much of an audience for it. The cast probably isn’t enough to get moviegoers too interested (save for maybe Theron) and the trailers and TV spots might not do enough to keep this from being a home viewing experience.

Gringo is rolling out on approximately 2400 screens (higher than I would have anticipated), but I’ll predict it struggles mightily to break through to American audiences.

Gringo opening weekend prediction: $3.1 million

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Free Fire Box Office Prediction

This Friday, British action-comedy Free Fire hits theaters stateside after it’s already premiered in the U.K. Ben Wheatley’s effort debuted last fall at the Toronto Film Festival to decent buzz and it stands at 81% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. Oscar winner Brie Larson (fresh off Kong: Skull Island) headlines along with Sharlto Copley, Armie Hammer, Cillian Murphy, and Jack Reynor.

While the pic may garner some interest from fanboys based on its mostly positive word of mouth, the marketing campaign for Free Fire has been minimal. I don’t yet have a theater count for it, which makes this prediction a little tough (and I could revise it when that count is revealed).

Regardless, I see a low opening here and it’s best hope is likely gaining a cult following once it’s release for home viewing.

Free Fire opening weekend prediction: $2.3 million

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Hardcore Henry Box Office Prediction

When Hardcore Henry premiered at the Toronto Film Festival last year, it set off a wave of positive buzz to the tune of a current 94% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. The sci-fi action thriller is touted as a “first person” experience in which the audience sees all the destruction and mayhem through the eyes of the title character. Sharlto Copley and Tim Roth are among the cast.

How will this experimental pic translate to box office dollars? I’m not overly optimistic. While certain fanboys have had this circled on their calendars for months now, I just don’t see this getting beyond a niche audience and I don’t believe it’ll reach double digits. So while Hardcore Henry could certainly become a cult hit, it may not necessarily become a real hit at the multiplexes.

Hardcore Henry opening weekend prediction: $7.8 million

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Chappie Box Office Prediction

Before he takes over the storied Alien franchise, District 9 and Elysium director Neill Blomkamp brings his next sci fi offering to audiences this Friday with Chappie. The robot centric picture features Blomkamp regular Sharlto Copley as well as recognizable faces like Hugh Jackman, Sigourney Weaver, and Dev Patel.

In 2009, the director broke through in a big way with District 9, the sleeper hit which ended up with a Best Picture nomination. District made $37 million out of the gate with an eventual domestic take of $115 million. His 2013 follow-up Elysium with Matt Damon didn’t quite live up to expectations, at the multiplex or critically. Elysium opened at $29 million with a final tally of $93 million.

I anticipate that Chappie will continue the trend of diminishing returns in Blomkamp’s filmography before it is certain to tick back up when he enters Alien world. Chappie hasn’t done enough to set itself apart with its trailers and TV spots. Still, it’s debut should easily be enough to open at #1, but I anticipate a premiere of under $25 million.

Chappie opening weekend prediction: $23.8 million

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Maleficent Box Office Prediction

This coming Friday, Disney brings us Maleficent, a live-action pic focusing on the well-known villainess from Sleeping Beauty. In the title role is Angelina Jolie, who will aim for (and most likely get) her highest live-action debut of all time.

Costarring Elle Fanning and Sharlto Copley, we’ve seen this type of film work at the box office before when Snow White and the Huntsman got off to a $56.2 million start just two summers ago. With an estimated budget of $180 million, Disney clearly believes it has a winner on their hands and they’re probably right. Maleficent should succeed in bringing in kid viewers as well as an impressive female audience.

Jolie’s current largest opening is Wanted from 2008, which made $50.9M in its debut. As I see it, Maleficent should certainly top that number. I feel it will also surpass Snow White‘s gross from 2012. The marketing campaign has been strong and I’m predicting an initial gross in the mid-60s makes a lot of sense.

Maleficent opening weekend prediction: $66.2 million

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