My first Oscar predictions for this new year (coming 22 days prior to nomination morning) comes with a change in Best Picture and other major races.
While I still believe that Babylon could make the BP ten despite mixed reviews and poor word-of-mouth, I have dropped it in favor of Triangle of Sadness.
In Best Director, James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water) is in the five to the detriment of Women Talking‘s Sarah Polley.
While Best Actress remains intact, Brendan Fraser is back at #1 for The Whale over Austin Butler as Elvis. This is really semantics. I believe Fraser, Butler, and Colin Farrell are basically 1a, 1b, and 1c at this juncture. It may take upcoming precursors to make it clearer. There’s another shift as Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick) gets the five spot over Hugh Jackman for The Son. I almost went with Aftersun‘s Paul Mescal.
In Supporting Actress, Claire Foy returns over her Women Talking costar Jessie Buckley. This category is still the trickiest acting derby to peg.
We also have 4 new number ones elsewhere. In Documentary Feature, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed vaults again to first. Elvis shimmies to the top in Costume Design while dropping to second in Makeup and Hairstyling with The Whale back at 1. The Fabelmans tops Original Score.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tár (PR: 7) (+2)
6. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (E)
7. Elvis (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Women Talking (PR: 8) (E)
9. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 13) (+4)
10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Babylon (PR: 10) (-1)
12. The Whale (PR: 11) (-1)
13. RRR (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 12) (-2)
15. The Woman King (PR: 15) (E)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Todd Field, Tár (PR: 4) (E)
5. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (E)
8. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Baz Luhrmann, Elvis (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Damien Chazelle, Babylon
S.S. Rajamouli, RRR
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tár (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 4) (E)
5. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 6) (E)
7. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 9) (E)
10. Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Naomi Ackie, Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Tom Hanks, A Man Called Otto (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Diego Calva, Babylon
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Dolly de Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)
5. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway (PR: 6) (E)
7. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 7) (E)
8. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Tár (PR: 4) (E)
5. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Aftersun (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Menu (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Babylon (PR: 8) (E)
9. Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Bardo (PR: 10) (E)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Whale (PR: 4) (+1)
4. She Said (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Living (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. White Noise (PR: 6) (E)
7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 8) (+1)
8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (E)
10. Bones and All (PR: 10) (E)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)
2. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 2) (E)
3. Turning Red (PR: 3) (E)
4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (PR: 5) (+1)
5. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Bad Guys (PR: 6 (E)
7. Wendell and Wild (PR: 7) (E)
8. Strange World (PR: 8) (E)
9. Inu-Oh (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Lightyear (PR: 9) (-1)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 1) (E)
2. Decision to Leave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Saint Omer (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Bardo (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Close (PR: 3) (-3)
7. EO (PR: 7) (E)
8. Holy Spider (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Joyland (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Quiet Girl (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Navalny (PR: 1) (-1)
3. All That Breathes (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Fire of Love (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Territory (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Descendant (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Moonage Daydream (PR: 7) (E)
8. Bad Axe (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Janes (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Retrograde (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 4) (E)
5. Babylon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Empire of Light (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 7) (E)
8. Bardo (PR: 8) (E)
9. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (E)
10. Tár (PR: 10) (E)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Elvis (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Babylon (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Woman King (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Fabelmans (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Living (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (E)
9. Corsage (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Women Talking
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 4) (E)
5. Elvis (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Women Talking (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Babylon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (E)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (E)
10. Tár (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Whale (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Elvis (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The Batman (PR: 3) (E)
4. Babylon (PR: 4) (E)
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Emancipation (PR: 7) (E)
8. Amsterdam (PR: 8) (E)
9. Blonde (PR: 9) (E)
10. Crimes of the Future (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Women Talking (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (E)
7. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Woman King (PR: Not Ranked)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (E)
10. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
She Said
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (E)
5. “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 8) (E)
9. “Stand Up” from Till (PR: 7) (-2)
10. “Nothing is Lost (You Give My Strength)” from Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 10) (E)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 5) (-2)
8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Batman (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Batman (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (E)
7. Babylon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 8) (E)
9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (E)
10. Moonage Daydream (PR: 10) (E)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Batman (PR: 3) (E)
4. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 4) (E)
5. Nope (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 5) (-1)
7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Thirteen Lives (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jurassic World: Dominion (PR: 9) (E)
10. Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore (PR: 10) (E)
That equates to these films achieving these numbers in terms of nominations:
11 Nominations
The Fabelmans
8 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once
7 Nominations
Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick
6 Nominations
Babylon
5 Nominations
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
4 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front, Tár, Women Talking
3 Nominations
The Batman, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Triangle of Sadness, The Whale
2 Nominations
Living
1 Nomination
All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Argentina, 1985, Bardo, Decision to Leave, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, My Father’s Dragon, Navalny, Nope, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, RRR, Saint Omer, She Said, The Territory, Till, Turning Red, The Woman King
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