Amazon Studios hope adults are going for a night on the town when Air debuts on Wednesday, April 5th. The fifth directorial feature from Ben Affleck recounts the risky decision by Nike to develop a shoe based around an NBA rookie named Michael Jordan. SPOILER: It turned out well. Ben’s Good Will Hunting cowriter Matt Damon, as salesman Sonny Vaccaro, joins his pal Affleck (who plays company cofounder Phil Knight). The ensemble cast includes Jason Bateman, Marlon Wayans, Chris Messina, Chris Tucker, Matthew Maher, and real life married couple Viola Davis and Julius Tennon as MJ’s parents.
Solid buzz greeted the project when it debuted at South by Southwest. Air sports a 97% Rotten Tomatoes score and it could even be an awards player several months down the road. Adult dramas have faced a tough road recently though A Man Called Otto was a 2023 bright spot in the genre.
The connection to MJ and the star power could give this a lift over the five-day Easter frame. Amazon chose to go full theatrical and not simultaneously release on their streaming service. That is a vote of confidence and TV ads have played frequently during March Madness (in addition to a Super Bowl slot).
Some parents with 80s nostalgia might be distracted taking their kiddos to The Super Mario Bros. Movie. Yet I’ll say this manages to top $10 million over the traditional three-day with mid to high teens for the extended holiday.
Air opening weekend prediction: $12.7 million (Friday to Sunday); $18.9 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
For my The Super Mario Bros. Movie prediction, click here:
Channing Tatum sashays back into multiplexes in his star making role with threequel Magic Mike’s Last Dance while Titanic re-releases on the occasion of its 25th anniversary. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
In what could be considered an upset, I have Titanic edging Mike for the top spot. Here’s why. There are reports that the latter is only releasing on approximately 1500 screens. If that holds true, it would significantly impact its earning power. When I assumed Mr. Tatum would arrive in the typical 3000 venues, I had it making just under $18 million. I now have it notably under that projection.
That may clear the way for the Titanic re-release to be #1 (giving James Cameron the first place picture in eight out of the past nine weekends). Valentine’s Day audiences and the nostalgia factor could get it there.
As for holdovers, M. Night Shyamalan’s Knock at the Cabin definitely came in at the lower end of its anticipated range (more on that below). I believe it could plummet from first to fifth with 80 for Brady and Avatar: The Way of Water each slipping only one spot. Cabin might even fall outside of the high five depending on the eighth frame dip for Puss in Boots: The Last Wish.
Here’s how I see the top 6 playing out:
1. Titanic 25th Anniversary
Predicted Gross: $11.6 million
2. Magic Mike’s Last Dance
Predicted Gross: $10.7 million
3. 80 for Brady
Predicted Gross: $8.1 million
4. Avatar: The Way of Water
Predicted Gross: $7.5 million
5. Knock at the Cabin
Predicted Gross: $5.9 million
6. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million
Box Office Results (February 3-5)
As mentioned, Knock at the Cabin had a fairly soft entry on the charts with $14.1 million. While it managed to knock Avatar from its seven-week reign on the throne, it fell far under my $23.6 million forecast. The glass half full? It cost a meager $20 million to make. The glass half empty? With a C Cinemascore grade, I foresee a sophomore plummet close to 60%. In the summer of 2021, Shyamalan’s predecessor Old managed to top Cabin with just under $17 million. Simply put, this should’ve done more considering it had less competition and better reviews.
80 for Brady had a respectable start in second with $12.7 million. Released a day after Tom Brady announced his retirement (again), the legend packed octogenarian comedy couldn’t match my $15.5 million take. It will hope for smallish declines in the weekends ahead.
Avatar: The Way of Water was third with $11.3 million, in line with my $11.8 million prediction. After its eighth outing, the gargantuan tally grew to $636 million.
Fourth place belonged to Puss in Boots: The Last Wish with $7.8 million (I said $8.9 million) for an impressive $151 million after seven weeks.
I incorrectly had the concert pic BTS: Yet to Come in Cinemas outside of the top five with no projection. It was fifth with $5.1 million.
A Man Called Otto was sixth with $4.3 million compared to my $4.8 million. The gross is a solid $53 million.
Finally, while I’m in predictin’ mode – Eagles 38, Chiefs 24. That’s all for now, folks! Until next time…
**Blogger’s Update (02/01): I am adding a title to the top 5 that I previously didn’t have on Monday when I did my initial projections. The Chosen: Season 3 Finale is playing on over 2000 screens. As you may recall, the season premiere grossed nearly $9 million in December out of the gate. I’ll say the finale generates a little more than that and could challenge Avatar for the 3 spot. Changes are reflected below.
The seven-week reign of Avatar: The Way of Water at #1 should end in its 8th outing as February dawns at the box office. M. Night Shyamalan’s latest thriller Knock at the Cabin and the octogenarian comedy 80 for Brady debut and look to place 1-2. My detailed prediction posts on them can be found here:
Beginning with 2017’s Split, Shyamalan experienced a career resurgence that could carry Cabin (generating solid word-of-mouth) to a low to mid 20s start. Getting close to $30 million is not out of the question. That number should be enough to top the charts.
80 for Brady looks to appeal to a female audience and older viewers. A Man Called Otto recently showed the demographic is ready for a return at multiplexes. With a robust marketing campaign and the involvement of Lily Tomlin, Jane Fonda, Sally Field, and Rita Moreno, I could absolutely see it over performing. My current mid teens forecast is worth keeping an eye on before Thursday (meaning it could rise).
As mentioned, Avatar: The Way of Water (while remaining above $10M) should finally relinquish its stranglehold in first.Fellow holdovers Puss in Boots: The Last Wish and A Man Called Otto should round out the top five and here’s how I see it looking:
1. Knock at the Cabin
Predicted Gross: $23.6 million
2. 80 for Brady
Predicted Gross: $15.5 million
3. Avatar: The Way of Water
Predicted Gross: $11.8 million
4. The Chosen: Season 3 Finale
Predicted Gross: $11 million
5. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Predicted Gross: $8.9 million
6. A Man Called Otto
Predicted Gross: $4.8 million
Box Office Results(January 27-29)
Avatar: The Way of Water cruised to a seventh frame atop the charts with $15.9 million (ahead of my $14.3 million take). The domestic haul is $620 million, but the story of the weekend is that it surpassed Star Wars: The Force Awakens to become the fourth largest worldwide grosser in history. That means James Cameron now has three of the top four (with Avatar and Titanic also in the mix).
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish was runner-up with $10.4 million, surpassing my $9.2 million prediction. In six weeks, the animated sequel has amassed $140 million.
The surprise of the weekend was Pathaan, a Hindu language action spectacle that I incorrectly had outside the top five. It was third with $6.8 million and $9.4 million since its Wednesday bow. The PTA of nearly $10k was easily the highest on the charts.
A Man Called Otto was fourth with $6.6 million (in line with my $6 million projection) for $45 million overall.
M3GAN rounded out the top five with $6.2 million (I said $5.8 million) as the campy horror tale is approaching nine figures at $82 million.
Finally, Missing was sixth in its sophomore weekend with $5.6 million, a tad above my $5.1 million call. The ten-day total is $17 million (doubling its reported $7 million budget).
2023 has gotten off to a pleasing start at the box office, but the last weekend of January should be rather quiet. Horror pic Fear is slated to be a wide release. I haven’t done an individual prediction post on it because I’ve yet to see a theater count. It would be surprising to see it in the top five. At the moment, I’m thinking it’ll be lucky to reach $2 million.
That means the chart should look very similar to this past frame with Avatar: The Way of Water spending a seventh weekend in first (very likely for the final time with Knock at the Cabin and 80 for Brady on deck). It might be the only feature to make over $10 million as I have dropping in the low to mid 30s for a low teens gross.
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (after a great hold in its 5th life) should stay in second during its sixth. Holdovers A Man Called Otto, M3GAN, and Missing (after a slightly better than anticipated debut) appear poised to populate slots 3-5.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water
Predicted Gross: $14.3 million
2. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Predicted Gross: $9.2 million
3. A Man Called Otto
Predicted Gross: $6 million
4. M3GAN
Predicted Gross: $5.8 million
5. Missing
Predicted Gross: $5.1 million
Box Office Results (January 20-22)
A six-peat greeted Avatar: The Way of Water with a take of $20.1 million, a bit under my $23.9 million forecast. James Cameron’s sequel crossed the $2 billion mark worldwide and neared $600 million domestically at $598 million.
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish is showing its multiple lives as it impressed in second with a mere 18% drop. Earning $11.8 million in its fifth outing (I was lower with $8.7 million), the animated follow-up has amassed $126 million.
M3GAN was third in weekend 3 with $9.7 million, on pace with my $9.5 million projection. The campy horror effort hit $73 million.
Missing, the stand-alone sequel to thriller Searching, found some fans in fourth with $9.1 million, surpassing my $6.8 million prediction. Considering the reported $7 million price tag, this should turn a tidy profit.
A Man Called Otto rounded out the top five at $8.8 million (I said $9.3 million). In its second weekend of wide release, it dipped a commendable 31%.
After a solid MLK long weekend at the box office, tech thriller Missing (a stand-alone sequel to 2018’s Searching) hopes to keep the 2023 momentum going in multiplexes. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
As the only new wide release, I’ve got Missing making the top five. However, it may fall under four holdovers. Avatar: The Way of Water should have no trouble staying in first for the sixth frame. The battle for #2 should be far more interesting. If Missing over performs, it could get there.
I’ve got the earnings of M3GAN, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, and A Man Called Otto separated by under a million. All three did well over the holiday. M3GAN is likely to suffer the biggest drop, but I’ve still got it clinging to #2 with Otto right behind and Boots in fourth.
Here’s how I see it looking for your high five:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water
Predicted Gross: $23.9 million
2. M3GAN
Predicted Gross: $9.5 million
3. A Man Called Otto
Predicted Gross: $9.3 million
4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Predicted Gross: $8.7 million
5. Missing
Predicted Gross: $6.8 million
Box Office Results (January 13-16)
Friday the 13th and the rest of the weekend was not unlucky as Avatar: The Way of Water 5-peated wtih $39.8 million. That’s just below my take of $41.2 million as James Cameron’s massive sequel sits at $571 million.
M3GAN held up well in its sophomore frame in second with $21.6 million from Friday to Monday. Ahead of my $18.7 million projection, the campy horror hit is grooving to $60 million thus far.
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish actually increased from the previous weekend in third at $18.9 million (slashing past my $13 million estimate). The animated sequel is now in nine figures with a lively $111 million.
Tom Hanks helped bring in adult moviegoers as A Man Called Otto expanded nationwide with a fourth place gross of $15.4 million (on target with my $15.9 million prediction). With an A Cinemascore grade, look for this to hold up well in the coming weeks. The tally is $21 million and growing.
Gerard Butler’s Plane took off in fifth with a decent $11.8 million (flying higher than my $7.2 million forecast). I suspect a drop at or close to 50% is where this lands next weekend.
Finally, comedic remake House Party did OK considering its lowly 1400 screen count. It was sixth with $4.6 million and that’s more RSVPs than my $3 million guesstimate.
It has been two weeks since my last Oscar predictions and a lot has transpired since. The Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards aired. SAG nominations came out. So did the BAFTA shortlists and PGA and DGA contenders.
All of this has made the puzzle a little clearer. Yet the fact remains – Oscar will Oscar when noms are released in a week. This is my penultimate forecast. Final predictions will arrive this weekend. Tonight’s estimates are your last look at rankings. It will simply be the listed picks a few days from now with commentary and a runner-up projection in each feature film category.
Here’s the latest developments as we are almost at the end of the line:
The Whale rises as it is back in my top 10 BP nominees. Women Talking falls out. A similar scenario in Supporting Actress as The Whale‘s Hong Chau is in over Women Talking‘s Claire Foy. After victories at the Globes and Critics Choice, Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) vaults over Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) for the #1 slot in Supporting Actress.
On the other hand, I’m putting Austin Butler (Elvis) back in first over Brendan Fraser (The Whale). This is essentially a coin flip with Colin Farrell from Banshees as a legit spoiler.
Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front) returns to the directorial quintet and James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water) is out.
In Actress, Viola Davis (The Woman King) at last makes the cut with Margot Robbie (Babylon) dropping. That’s not the only news in this derby. I almost went with Ana de Armas (Blonde) instead of Davis. And there’s the recent development of Andrea Riseborough’s online campaign for the micro budget indie drama To Leslie. Numerous performers, including Cate Blanchett, have boarded the Riseborough bandwagon. Two weeks ago – she was on no one’s radar screen. Now the buzz is enough to put her in 8th.
You can read all the movement below and look for those FINAL predictions this weekend!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tár (PR: 5) (E)
6. Elvis (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (-1)
8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Whale (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Babylon (PR: 11) (E)
12. RRR (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Women Talking (PR: 8) (-5)
14. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 14) (E)
15. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Woman King
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Todd Field, Tár (PR: 4) (E)
5. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 10) (+3)
8. S.S. Rajamouli, RRR (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Baz Luhrmann, Elvis (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Sarah Polley, Women Talking
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tár (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 4) (E)
5. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Naomi Ackie, Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway
Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: 6) (E)
7. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 7) (E)
8. Adam Sandler, Hustle (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Tom Hanks, A Man Called Otto (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (+3)
2. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 9) (+5)
5. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Janelle Monáe, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)
5. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Tár (PR: 4) (E)
5. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Aftersun (PR: 6) (E)
7. Babylon (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Decision to Leave (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Menu (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Armageddon Time (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bardo
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Whale (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 2) (-1)
4. She Said (PR: 4) (E)
5. Living (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities
6. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)
8. White Noise (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (E)
10. Bones and All (PR: 10) (E)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)
2. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 2) (E)
3. Turning Red (PR: 3) (E)
4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wendell and Wild (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Bad Guys (PR: 6) (E)
7. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Strange World (PR: 8) (E)
9. Inu-Oh (PR: 9) (E)
10. Lightyear (PR: 10) (E)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 1) (E)
2. Decision to Leave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Close (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 4) (E)
5. EO (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Saint Omer (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Bardo (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The Quiet Girl (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Joyland (PR: 9) (E)
10. Holy Spider (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 1) (E)
2. All That Breathes (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Fire of Love (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Navalny (PR: 2) (-2)
5. The Territory (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Descendant (PR: 6) (E)
7. Moonage Daydream (PR: 7) (E)
8. Retrograde (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Bad Axe (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Last Flight Home (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Janes
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 4) (E)
5. Empire of Light (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Babylon (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Elvis (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Batman (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Nope (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bardo
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Tár
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Elvis (PR: 1) (E)
2. Babylon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Woman King (PR: 4) (E)
5. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Living (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (E)
9. Corsage (PR: 9) (E)
10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elvis (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (+3)
7. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Babylon (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Tár (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Women Talking
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Elvis (PR: 2 (+1)
2. The Whale (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The Batman (PR: 3) (E)
4. Babylon (PR: 4) (E)
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 6) (E)
7. Amsterdam (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Blonde (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Emancipation (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Crimes of the Future (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nomnees:
1. The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Babylon (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Women Talking (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The Woman King (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (-3)
10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 2) (+1)
2. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (-1)
3. “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 7) (E)
8. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 8) (E)
9. “Good Afternoon” from Spirited (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Stand Up” from Till (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
“Nothing is Lost (You Give Me Strength)” from Avatar: The Way of Water
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (-2)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Batman (PR: 10) (E)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Elvis (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Batman (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (E)
7. Babylon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 8) (E)
9. Moonage Daydream (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Batman (PR: 3) (E)
4. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 4) (E)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (E)
7. Nope (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Thirteen Lives (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jurassic World: Dominion (PR: 9) (E)
10. Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore (PR: 10) (E)
That equates to these movies garnering these numbers in terms of nominations:
9 Nominations
The Fabelmans
8 Nominations
Everything Everywhere All at Once
7 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick
6 Nominations
Avatar: The Way of Water
5 Nominations
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, The Whale
4 Nominations
Babylon, Tár
3 Nominations
The Batman, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Triangle of Sadness
2 Nominations
Living, The Woman King, Women Talking
1 Nominations
All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Argentina, 1985, Close, Decision to Leave, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Empire of Light, EO, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Navalny, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, RRR, She Said, Tell It Like a Woman, The Territory, Till, Turning Red, Wendell and Wild
A Man Called Otto is metaphorically and actually about the title character eventually getting his power back. Otto Anderson (Tom Hanks) is a recent widower just retired. We’re introduced to him as he suspiciously and precisely purchases a length of rope at a local suburban Pittsburgh home improvement store. Otto is a curmudgeon and he would probably tell neighbors to remove themselves from his condominium lawn, but he’s also Tom Hanks so we’re softened to him. It’s a bummer when that length of rope turns out to be what we fear. Not happy about his current situation, he shuts his electricity off as a prelude to suicide.
Then he keeps getting interrupted. The first prevention comes unwittingly from new neighbors Marisol (Mariana Treviño, stealing the show) and Tommy (Manuel Garcia-Rulfo). They are parents of two adorable girls with a boy on the way. The husband is a kindly dim bulb. Marisol is not. She’s strong and caring and seems to drive every relationship she’s in even if she can’t drive a car. At first Otto is dismissive of her (though not her cooking).
Another attempt involving carbon monoxide poisoning is thwarted by Marisol. Slowly an odd friendship develops. Their interplay generates the real electricity in the screenplay from David Magee. It was, as many know, adapted from Fredrik Backman’s 2012 novel A Man Called Ove. It was turned into an Oscar nominated 2015 Swedish film.
The genuine emotional connection between Otto and Marisol helps mask that other characters are broad caricatures. There’s silly Jimmy (Cameron Britton), who’s always doing his comically awkward walks nearby. Or the hip hop blaring Real Estate Agent (comedian Mike Birbiglia), who is trying to evict Otto’s long-time friends with health problems. Minimal nuance is involved with these folks – “Real Estate Agent” isn’t even granted a name. I forget if Bratty Dog Walker (her pooch is treated like royalty) has one. There is a cat who is easily more memorable as Otto increasingly seems to have nine lives. Also on the plus side, flashback sequences that show his marriage to Sonya (Rachel Keller) help inform Otto’s condition. His younger self is portrayed by the actor’s real son Truman Hanks.
Marc Forster is behind the camera and what a fascinating filmography he’s had. From directing Halle Berry to an Oscar in Monster’s Ball to Daniel Craig’s weakest 007 outing Quantum of Solace to the effective adaptation of World War Z and Finding Neverland and Christopher Robin, he mixes it up. His main style might be that he doesn’t have much of one (whatever fits the occasion). A silhouetted and overly dramatic later suicide attempt tries to bite off more stylistically than its filmmaker can chew. Forster is mostly content to allow Hanks and Treviño steer the vehicle and that’s welcome. A Man Called Otto is far from perfect yet it has a lot of heart.
Blogger’s Update (01/11): Considering its meager 1500 screen count and scant buzz, I’m revising my House Party prediction down from $6 million to $3 million. That puts it outside of the top 6.
The 2023 box office got off to an impressive start as studios hope the momentum continues over the four-day MLK weekend. A Man Called Otto expands and we have the Gerard Butler action flick Plane and comedy remake House Party landing. You can peruse my individual prediction posts on the trio here:
Otto, while technically not a newcomer, should perform the best of the newbies. It over performed in limited release this past weekend (more on that below) and could even make a run for #2 depending on the sophomore drop for M3GAN.
Speaking of that demented AI doll, a robust and clever marketing campaign propelled the PG-13 flick to a terrific start. Horror titles often experience hefty declines after their opening, but the holiday could mean a high teens (maybe even low 20s) gross is possible.
Neither M3GAN or Otto will prevent Avatar: The Way of Water from making it five in a row atop the charts. I’m thinking it manages high 30s to low 40s as it builds on the already half billion domestic haul.
As for Plane and House Party, I have both falling under double digits and that would leave them in 5th and 6th behind the fourth outing for Puss in Boots: The Last Wish.
Here’s how I see it playing out and remember that these forecasts are for Friday through Monday:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water
Predicted Gross: $41.2 million
2. M3GAN
Predicted Gross: $18.7 million
3. A Man Called Otto
Predicted Gross: $15.9 million
4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Predicted Gross: $13 million
5. Plane
Predicted Gross: $7.2 million
Box Office Results (January 6-8)
As mentioned, it was a healthy kickoff to the new year as Avatar: The Way of Water maintained first position with only a -32 decrease. That’s good for a fourth weekend collection of $45.8 million (beyond my $38.3 million prediction) as it’s amassed $517 million stateside.
M3GAN translated great buzz and sterling reviews to a $30.4 million premiere, dancing past my $24.8 million take. Universal ran a campaign that included memorable trailers and Tik Tok type vids of M3GAN’s crashing Times Square and media interviews. It paid off handsomely.
Universal had the third spot with Puss in Boots: The Last Wish earning $13.5 million, ahead of my $10.2 million projection. The animated sequel is up to $88 million with nine figures on deck.
Maybe grown-ups are ready to return to multiplexes! After plenty of awards bait adult features have disappointed in recent months, A Man Called Otto with Tom Hanks bucked the trend on a still limited 637 screens. The gross was $4.2 million and I incorrectly had it outside my top five.
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever was fifth with $3.5 million (I said $3.4 million) for $445 million total.
Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody was sixth with $2.4 million compared to my $2.1 million call. It’s at a ho-hum $19 million.
Another significant piece of the Oscar prognosticating puzzle is put together on Wednesday when nominations for the 29th Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards are dropped. The ceremony’s main prize, it’s important to note, is not Best Picture but Best Ensemble. That means a correlation from the Oscar BP and the top race here is not apples to apples. It is worth noting that half of the last 10 SAG Ensemble victors (Argo, Birdman, Spotlight, Parasite, CODA) did go on to win BP from the Academy. On the other hand, three recent BPs (The Shape of Water, Green Book, Nomadland) didn’t make the SAG quintet at all.
Let’s go through all six categories one by one with my picks and a runner-up call, shall we?
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
There are plenty of possibilities including box office hits like Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, and Top Gun: Maverick. For Panther, the original won Ensemble in 2018 so the sequel materializing is feasible. I wouldn’t discount the sprawling cast of Babylon though middling reviews could hurt it. It’s tempting to pick Glass Onion but I’m hesitant since Knives Out was snubbed in 2019.
Everything Everywhere All at Once and The Fabelmans seem safe. Despite the small call sheet for The Banshees of Inisherin (with just four significant roles), I could see the SAG branch honoring it. I’m also liking The Woman King‘s chances. Women Talking is perhaps the biggest question mark. It has underperformed with precursors. A couple of months ago, I’d have considered it a potential frontrunner to win. Now I wonder if it makes it at all. Nevertheless – here’s my take:
Predicted Nominees:
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
The Woman King
Women Talking
Runner-Up: Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
In the previous decade, SAG in Actress has matched the Academy 4/5 on six occasions and 3/5 on four. There are no perfect correlations. SAG has shown they will throw in a shocker – Jennifer Aniston in Cake, Sarah Silverman for I Smile Back or Emily Blunt in The Girl on the Train are recent examples. If there’s one here, look out for Naomi Ackie (Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody).
Margot Robbie (Babylon) is currently the one I’ve got in the Academy five (for the moment) that I don’t have here. Ana de Armas (Blonde) is a real threat. If she makes this quintet, look for her Oscar stock to soar. With those possibilities mentioned, my choices are…
Predicted Nominees:
Cate Blanchett, Tár
Viola Davis, The Woman King
Danielle Deadwyler, Till
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: Ana de Armas, Blonde
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Austin Butler (Elvis), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), and Brendan Fraser (The Whale) should all be safe. Bill Nighy (Living) is fourth though I suspect there’s a better chance at SAG leaving him off than the Academy. Then there’s that five spot. It could be Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick), Tom Hanks (A Man Called Otto), Hugh Jackman (The Son), or Paul Mescal (Aftersun). Take your pick. I’m leaning toward the star of the year’s biggest hit. On a side note, there’s been a SAG/Oscar match of 5/5 for the previous two cycles.
Predicted Nominees:
Austin Butler, Elvis
Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Bill Nighy, Living
Runner-Up: Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Last year was an anomaly when just 2 of the SAG nominees (Ariana DeBose for West Side Story and The Power of the Dog‘s Kirsten Dunst) scored Oscar nods. The magic number is usually 3 or 4. The wide open nature of this race has been discussed a lot on the blog. Beyond my picks and runner-up, don’t discount Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness), Claire Foy (Women Talking), Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Janelle Monae (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery), and Carey Mulligan (She Said).
Predicted Nominees:
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Jessie Buckley, Women Talking
Hong Chau, The Whale
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Like Supporting Actress last year, there was only a 2 for 5 match with Troy Kotsur in CODA and Kodi Smit-McPhee in The Power of the Dog. Usually it’s 4. For 2022, I believe only Ke Huy Quan and Brendan Gleeson are safe assumptions. The remaining three slots should be some combo of Paul Dano (The Fabelmans), Tom Hanks (Elvis), Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway), Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans), Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway), Brad Pitt (Babylon), and Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse) sorting it out.
Predicted Nominees:
Paul Dano, The Fabelmans
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse
Runner-Up: Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble
Don’t discount The Batman or Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, but my quintet is as follows…
Predicted Nominees:
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Top Gun: Maverick
The Woman King
Runner-Up: RRR
That equates to these movies generating these numbers:
5 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once
3 Nominations
The Fabelmans, The Woman King
2 Nominations
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Top Gun: Maverick, The Whale, Women Talking
1 Nomination
The Batman, Elvis, The Good Nurse, Living, Tár, Till
On Wednesday evening you can expect a recap of what happens after noms are revealed!
Blogger’s Update (01/11): Considering its meager 1500 screen count and scant buzz, I’m revising my House Party prediction down from $6 million to $3 million.
Warner Bros hopes audiences RSVP to the House Party reboot when it debuts January 13th. Directed by Calmatic (best known for music videos and commercials), Jacob Latimore and Tosin Cole star as best friends who hatch a plan to hold a blowout bash at the estate of LeBron James. The NBA superstar plays himself as do musical celebs like Kid Cudi, Lil Wayne, and Snoop Dogg.
The 1990 original featured hip hop act Kid N’ Play (who appear here) and spawned two sequels. It was a surprise box office success that also drew critical kudos. This was originally slated for an HBO Max only premiere last summer before the studio shifted emphasis to theatrical output.
Rolling out over the long MLK weekend, Party could manage to over perform. There’s a real question which new release will make the most money with A Man Called Otto and Plane as the other contenders. The trio should all fall behind Avatar: The Way of Water and M3GAN. I’ll project this falls short of double digits earnings by a notable margin.
House Party opening weekend prediction: $3 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
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