My final Oscar predictions of the calendar year brings changes in three major categories:
Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s Drive My Car, in addition to spending its second week at #1 in International Feature Film, pulls into the top ten for Best Picture. That’s at the expense of The Tragedy of Macbeth. I toyed with the idea of removing Don’t Look Up (which has drawn wildly mixed reactions from audiences and critics). I’m keeping it in as its most vocal supporters could keep Adam McKay’s satire in the mix.
In Best Actress, I’ve had a nagging suspicion that the quintet of Kristen Stewart, Jessica Chastain, Nicole Kidman, Olivia Colman, and Lady Gaga may not be the final five. Why? Mainly because I don’t have any of their movies getting BP nods. Since the Academy expanded to 5-10 nominees in that big race, there hasn’t been a year where the acting nominees didn’t represent at least one Best Picture nominee. That was in 2009. If you still went with the previously mentioned five, it might be wise to consider Spencer or Being the Ricardos or The Lost Daughter making the 10 BP contenders. I’m not prepared to put any of that trio in at the moment. Therefore – I’m dropping Gaga and elevating Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza). It could also be Rachel Zegler (West Side Story).
I’m going with a somewhat surprise nominee (perhaps two) in Supporting Actor. I still have Bradley Cooper (Pizza) making the cut and now I’m putting in Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog). This knocks out Jamie Dornan for Belfast. Last year, we saw a shocker when Lakeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah) made the supporting five. Power‘s potency (I have it as the favorite to take BP) could sweep Plemons in along with his costar Kodi Smit-McPhee (my #1). That could be a repeat of 2020 when Daniel Kaluuya won for Judas and Stanfield was in the race.
You can read all the movement below and my predictions will continue into the new year!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. West Side Story (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Dune (PR: 3) (-2)
6. King Richard (PR: 6) (E)
7. CODA (PR: 7) (E)
8. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 8) (E)
9. Don’t Look Up (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Drive My Car (PR: 12) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Being the Ricardos (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Nightmare Alley (PR: 11) (-2)
14. The Lost Daughter (PR: 14) (E)
15. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
A Hero
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 2) (E)
3. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (E)
8. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Asghar Farhadi, A Hero (PR: 9) (E)
10. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 3) (E)
4. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 7) (E)
8. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Emilia Jones, CODA (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 3) (E)
4. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (E)
5. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 4) (E)
5. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Rita Moreno, West Side Story (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Mike Faist, West Side Story (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar (PR: 7) (-2)
10. J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jason Isaacs, Mass
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. King Richard (PR: 3) (E)
4. Don’t Look Up (PR: 4) (E)
5. Being the Ricardos (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mass (PR: 8) (+2)
7. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 7) (E)
8. A Hero (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Parallel Mothers (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The French Dispatch (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. CODA (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Lost Daughter (PR: 4) (E)
5. Drive My Car (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Passing (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Last Duel (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nightmare Alley
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Encanto (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flee (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Luca (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Raya and the Last Dragon (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Belle (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Summit of the Gods (PR: 7) (E)
8. Vivo (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ron’s Gone Wrong (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sing 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Where Is Anne Frank
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Drive My Car (PR: 1) (E)
2. A Hero (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 3) (E)
4. Flee (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Hand of God (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. I’m Your Man (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Compartment No. 6 (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Prayers for the Stolen (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Great Freedom (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Lamb (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Flee (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Rescue (PR: 2) (E)
3. Summer of Soul (PR: 3) (E)
4. Procession (PR: 4) (E)
5. Attica (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The First Wave (PR: 6) (E)
7. Ascension (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Faya Dayi (PR: 8) (E)
9. President (PR: 7) (-2)
10. In the Same Breath (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Velvet Underground
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. West Side Story (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Belfast (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)
7. Licorice Pizza (PR: 7) (E)
8. The French Dispatch (PR: 9) (+1)
9. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Spencer (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cruella (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune (PR: 2) (E)
3. West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)
4. House of Gucci (PR: 4) (E)
5. Spencer (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Cyrano (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Last Night in Soho (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The French Dispatch
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. Don’t Look Up (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Power of the Dog (PR: 5) (-1)
7. King Richard (PR: 7) (E)
8. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 8) (E)
9. Being the Ricardos (PR: 9) (E)
10. Last Night in Soho (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nightmare Alley
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. House of Gucci (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3) (E)
4. Cruella (PR: 4) (E)
5. Coming 2 America (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Suicide Squad (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Cyrano (PR: 7) (-1)
9. West Side Story (PR: 9) (E)
10. No Time to Die (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Don’t Look Up (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The French Dispatch (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Spencer (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Parallel Mothers (PR: 7) (E)
8. King Richard (PR: 8) (E)
9. Encanto (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Green Knight (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Harder They Fall
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Be Alive” from King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Beyond the Shore” from CODA (PR: 6) (E)
7. “Guns Go Bang” from The Harder They Fall (PR: 7) (E)
8. “So May We Start” from Annette (PR: 9) (+1)
9. “Here I Am” from Respect (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days (PR: 10) (E)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (E)
5. Belfast (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Cyrano (PR: 10) (+3)
8. The Power of the Dog (PR: 8) (E)
9. Spencer (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Cruella (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Being the Ricardos
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. No Time to Die (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 6) (E)
7. A Quiet Place Part II (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Power of the Dog (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Last Night in Soho (PR: 10) (E)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Godzilla vs. Kong (PR: 4) (E)
5. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Free Guy (PR: 6) (E)
7. Ghostbusters: Afterlife (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Eternals (PR: 8) (E)
9. No Time to Die (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Black Widow (PR: 10) (E)
And this all equates to these numbers of nominations for said movies:
10 Nominations
Belfast, Dune
9 Nominations
The Power of the Dog, West Side Story
6 Nominations
Licorice Pizza
5 Nominations
Don’t Look Up, King Richard
3 Nominations
CODA, Drive My Car, Flee, Spencer, Tick, Tick… Boom!
2 Nominations
Being the Ricardos, Cruella, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The French Dispatch, House of Gucci, The Lost Daughter, No Time to Die, The Tragedy of Macbeth
1 Nomination
Attica, Coming 2 America, Cyrano, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Hand of God, A Hero, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Nightmare Alley, Passing, Procession, Raya and the Last Dragon, The Rescue, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Spider-Man: No Way Home, Summer of Soul, The Worst Person in the World
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