Documentaries of the musical variety often face a tough road from that branch of Academy voters. For every Summer of Soul (which won the prize last year), there’s entries like The Sparks Brothers or The Velvet Underground and Miss Americana. That trio all missed the cut over the last couple of years.
Daniel Geller and Dayna Goldfine co-direct Hallelujah: Leonardo Cohen, a Journey, a Song, an adaptation of musical journalist Alan Light’s book. It focuses on Canadian crooner Cohen’s trademark tune “Hallelujah”.
Reviews are mostly laudatory with an 85% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. I don’t sense enough enthusiasm for this to be a genuine player. Perhaps it could make the Documentary Feature shortlist, but it might take a Hail Mary for it to make the top five. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
For the second year in a row, the British Academy Film Awards (or BAFTAs) showed its unpredictable nature with some shocking omissions and unexpected inclusions. The last major precursor before Oscar nominations are unveiled Tuesday, I went 63 of 99 when it comes to races with a correlation to the Academy’s competitions. Truth be told – it coulda been worse considering the surprises we witnessed today.
Let’s break them down one by one with some commentary, shall we?
Film
Nominees: Belfast, Don’t Look Up, Dune, Licorice Pizza, The Power of the Dog
How I Did: 3/5
Commentary: The BAFTAs delivered a great haul for Pizza. It and Don’t Look Up got in over my picks of The Tragedy of Macbeth and West Side Story (which both underwhelmed). Gut reaction says Power is in the lead.
Director
Nominees: Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza), Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog), Audrey Diwan (Happening), Julia Ducournau (Titane), Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car), Aleem Khan (After Love)
How I Did: 4/6
Commentary: Wow – no Kenneth Branagh for Belfast or Denis Villeneuve for Dune! They miss with Anderson and Diwan taking the spots. Like with Film, Campion could be out in front.
Leading Actress
Nominees: Lady Gaga (House of Gucci), Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza), Emilia Jones (CODA), Renate Reinsve (The Worst Person in the World), Joanna Scanlan (After Love), Tessa Thompson (Passing)
How I Did: 3/6
Commentary: Surprises galore here! No Nicole Kidman for Being the Ricardos or Olivia Colman in The Lost Daughter. I predicted both along with Claire Rushbrook for Ali & Ava. In their slots are Haim (continuing the Licorice love), Jones, and Thompson. I would also note no Kristen Stewart in Spencer after her SAG snub.
Now here’s an interesting stat – since 2013, the BAFTA Leading Actress recipient has matched the Oscar winner. So… are Kidman and Colman in trouble? Could Gaga be on her way to a gold statue? Does this show Haim’s potential strength at getting an Academy mention? Questions abound, but I know one thing – this year’s Actress race is as intriguing as last year’s.
Leading Actor
Nominees: Adeel Akhtar (Ali & Ava), Mahershala Ali (Swan Song), Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog), Leonardo DiCaprio (Don’t Look Up), Stephen Graham (Boiling Point), Will Smith (King Richard)
How I Did: 3/6
Commentary: Smith’s inclusion here (which I didn’t project) just might solidify him as the Oscar frontrunner (with Cumberbatch pretty close behind). Academy hopefuls Andrew Garfield (Tick, Tick… Boom!) and Denzel Washington (Macbeth) were left out as was Daniel Craig in his swan song as Bond in No Time to Die. In their place – Smith, Ali (following up on his Globe nominated turn), and DiCaprio.
Side note – somehow, Denzel has never been nominated for a BAFTA.
Supporting Actress
Nominees: Caitriona Balfe (Belfast), Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter), Ariana DeBose (West Side Story), Ann Dowd (Mass), Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard), Ruth Negga (Passing)
How I Did: 4/6
Commentary: Dowd finally shows up! I must say – no huge shockers here as she and Ellis made it over Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog) and Kathryn Hunter (Macbeth). We’ll see if DeBose’s potential sweep continues here.
Supporting Actor
Nominees: Mike Faist (West Side Story), Ciaran Hinds (Belfast), Troy Kotsur (CODA), Woody Norman (C’Mon C’Mon), Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog), Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)
How I Did: 3/6
Commentary: There was a double dose of Dog love for Plemons (who I didn’t predict) and Smit-McPhee (who I did and he could certainly win). I also went with Faist’s costar David Alvarez instead in a last minute switch that I now regret. And young Norman is responsible for the only nod for C’Mon C’Mon. I also went with Benicio del Toro for The French Dispatch and Jamie Dornan in Belfast. At this point, an Oscar nod for Dornan seems like a reach. Also worth noting is that, despite Pizza over performing, no Bradley Cooper.
Original Screenplay
Nominees: Being the Ricardos, Belfast, Don’t Look Up, King Richard, Licorice Pizza
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Here’s a list that may absolutely match the Oscar one. I said After Love over Richard (which had a solid day). Like with the Academy, this might be a Belfast v. Pizza showdown and considering how well the latter did, I might lean that way.
Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: CODA, Drive My Car, Dune, The Lost Daughter, The Power of the Dog
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Went with West Side Story over Dune. This is Power‘s to lose.
Animated Film
Nominees: Encanto, Flee, Luca, The Mitchells vs. the Machines
How I Did: 3/4
Commentary: Rather predictable list though I said Ron’s Gone Wrong instead of Luca.
Film Not in the English Language
Nominees: Drive My Car, The Hand of God, Parallel Mothers, Petite Maman, The Worst Person in the World
How I Did: 3/5
Commentary: No Flee here or Titane with God and Mothers in. Drive My Car is the favorite.
Documentary
Nominees: Becoming Cousteau, Cow, Flee, The Rescue, Summer of Soul
How I Did: 3/5
Commentary: Summer of Soul did well when factoring in the surprise Editing nod. It made it along with Cousteau over my picks of The Sparks Brothers and The Velvet Underground.
Cinematography
Nominees: Dune, Nightmare Alley, No Time to Die, The Power of the Dog, The Tragedy of Macbeth
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Well – Macbeth got something (!) Only miss here was going with Belfast instead of Alley.
Costume Design
Nominees: Cruella, Cyrano, Dune, The French Dispatch, Nightmare Alley
How I Did: 2/5
Commentary: There’s always a pesky 2/5 race where I just whiff. I got Cyrano and Dune right but the others popped up over House of Gucci, Last Night in Soho, and West Side Story. I didn’t predict it, but Cruella could be the main competition for Dune.
Editing
Nominees: Belfast, Dune, Licorice Pizza, No Time to Die, Summer of Soul
How I Did: 3/5
Commentary: Soul‘s aforementioned placement is unexpected – could it possibly follow suit with the Academy? Also didn’t project Pizza. They are in over Last Night in Soho and (you guessed it) West Side Story.
Makeup and Hair
Nominees: Cruella, Cyrano, Dune, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, House of Gucci
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Cyrano over The Electrical Life of Louis Wain. Honestly, other than Cyrano, I think any of the hopefuls could take this.
Original Score
Nominees: Being the Ricardos, Don’t Look Up, Dune, The French Dispatch, The Power of the Dog
How I Did: 3/5
Commentary: Ricardos and Don’t Look Up in; The Green Knight and Spencer out. Probably a showdown of Dune v. Dog.
Production Design
Nominees: Cyrano, Dune, The French Dispatch, Nightmare Alley, West Side Story
How I Did: 3/5
Commentary: Here’s a rare category where I incorrectly had West Side missing. It’s in, along with Cyrano (which had a decent haul with tech races) over Belfast and Macbeth.
Sound
Nominees: Dune, Last Night in Soho, No Time to Die, A Quiet Place Part II, West Side Story
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Place over Belfast. Expect Dune to reign supreme.
Special Visual Effects
Nominees: Dune, Free Guy, Ghostbusters: Afterlife, The Matrix Resurrections, No Time to Die
How I Did: 3/5
Commentary: Should be another victory for Dune as Free Guy and Ghostbusters made it over my selections of The King’s Man and Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings.
And there’s your recap. As a reminder, my FINAL Oscar predictions (which I’m currently beating myself up over) will be posted tomorrow! Stay tuned…
The last major precursor nominations before Tuesday’s Oscar nods come out tomorrow and it’s the British Academy Film Awards or BAFTAs. Let’s discuss them a bit, shall we? The BAFTAs can be a confusing branch to figure out.
For starters, the number of nominees in each category is a tad puzzling. Best Film has five as do the tech races and screenplay derbies. Director and the acting competitions contain 6 while Animated Film is 4. However, Documentary and “Film Not in the English Language” is 5. Got that?
While past years have matched the Oscars fairly closely in the big categories, 2020 was an exception. While 4 of the 5 Best Film contenders ended up nabbing BP mentions from the Academy, it was just 3 of the directors. For Best Actor, it was also 3 but in Best Actress only two. Same goes for Supporting – 3 in Actor, 2 in Actress.
In other words, projecting the BAFTAs is a major crapshoot but I’ll try. Since it’s British voters, titles such as the BBC’s After Love are expected to perform well in some of the major races.
Another major note – I am only forecasting competitions where there’s a direct correlation to the Academy. Therefore I’m not weighing in on Best British Film, Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director, or Producer, or Casting.
For each race, I’ll give you my picks (and I triple checked the numbers) and an alternate. A recap on how I did and my general thoughts are up tomorrow and my final Oscar predictions will be up Friday!
The DGA and PGA nominations are out as of yesterday and it’s caused some reflection as I pen my penultimate predictions for the 2021 Oscars. With Being the Ricardos and Tick, Tick… Boom! nabbing the final two BP spots at PGA (the other 8 were pretty obvious), I feel it necessary to include at least one of them. On the other hand, I’m reluctant to include both as PGA and the Academy’s BP selection rarely match. I’m leaning toward Boom! and it vaults back into the top ten. Yet I’m continuing to keep The Tragedy of Macbeth in the mix despite its lack of recent precursor love.
The DGA quintet and the Best Director nominees haven’t mirrored each other since 2009. So it’s a risk to go with DGA’s five. However, as of this moment, I’m going with it.
Another big change is in Best Actor as I’m including Javier Bardem in Ricardos for the first time (over Leonardo DiCaprio for Don’t Look Up). There’s also a change in Supporting Actor as I’m putting Ben Affleck (The Tender Bar) in for his inaugural appearance. That knocks out Jared Leto for Gucci.
The last big piece of the precursor puzzle arrives Thursday with BAFTA nods. On Friday (02/04), I will make my FINAL Oscar calls before nomination morning on Tuesday, February 8th.
Here’s how I have things standing as of now:
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Dune (PR: 4) (+1)
4. West Side Story (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
6. King Richard (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 6) (-1)
8. CODA (PR: 8) (E)
9. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 11) (+2)
10. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Being the Ricardos (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Drive My Car (PR: 13) (+1)
13. House of Gucci (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Nightmare Alley (PR: Not Ranked)
15. The Lost Daughter (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
No Time to Die
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 2) (E)
3. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)
4. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 8) (E)
9. Sian Heder, CODA (PR: 9) (E)
10. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 1) (E)
2. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3) (E)
4. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 7) (E)
8. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (E)
10. Emilia Jones, CODA (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 2) (E)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 3) (E)
4. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (E)
5. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 8) (E)
9. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 9) (E)
10. Hidetoshi Nishijima, Drive My Car (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 4) (E)
5. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley (PR: 8) (E)
9. Rita Moreno, West Side Story (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (E)
5. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog (PR: 8) (+1)
8. J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Mike Faist, West Side Story (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Don’t Look Up (PR: 3) (E)
4. Being the Ricardos (PR: 4) (E)
5. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. King Richard (PR: 6) (E)
7. Parallel Mothers (PR: 7) (E)
8. Mass (PR: 8) (E)
9. The French Dispatch (PR: 9) (E)
10. A Hero (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Pig
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. CODA (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Lost Daughter (PR: 4) (E)
5. Dune (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Drive My Car (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (E)
8. Passing (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Nightmare Alley (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Last Duel
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees
1. Encanto (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flee (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (PR: 3) (E)
4. Luca (PR: 4) (E)
5. Raya and the Last Dragon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Belle (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sing 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Summit of the Gods (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Vivo (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Ron’s Gone Wrong (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
My Sunny Maad
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Drive My Car (PR: 1) (E)
2. A Hero (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 3) (E)
4. Flee (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Hand of God (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. I’m Your Man (PR: 6) (E)
7. Prayers for the Stolen (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Compartment No. 6 (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Great Freedom (PR: 9) (E)
10. Playground (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Good Boss
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Flee (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Rescue (PR: 2) (E)
3. Procession (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Summer of Soul (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The First Wave (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ascension (PR: 6) (E)
7. Faya Dayi (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Attica (PR: 7) (-1)
9. President (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Velvet Underground (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
In the Same Breath
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Belfast (PR: 3) (-1)
5. West Side Story (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)
7. Licorice Pizza (PR: 7) (E)
8. The French Dispatch (PR: 8) (E)
9. Spencer (PR: 10) (+1)
10. No Time to Die (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
C’Mon C’Mon
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cruella (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune (PR: 2) (E)
3. West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)
4. House of Gucci (PR: 4) (E)
5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spencer (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Licorice Pizza (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The French Dispatch (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Cyrano (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Last Night in Soho (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Power of the Dog (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Don’t Look Up (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. West Side Story (PR: 2) (-4)
7. King Richard (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Nightmare Alley (PR: 10) (+1)
10. No Time to Die (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Being the Ricardos
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. House of Gucci (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3) (E)
4. Cruella (PR: 4) (E)
5. Coming 2 America (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Suicide Squad (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Nightmare Alley (PR: 8) (+1)
8. West Side Story (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Cyrano (PR: 9) (E)
10. No Time to Die (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Don’t Look Up (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Spencer (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parallel Mothers (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Encanto (PR: 7) (-1)
9. King Richard (PR: 9) (E)
10. Being the Ricardos (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto (PR: 3) (+1)
3. “Be Alive” from King Richard (PR: 2) (-1)
4. “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up (PR: 6) (+2)
5. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Here I Am” from Respect (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “Guns Go Bang” from The Harder They Fall (PR: 7) (E)
8. “Beyond the Shore” from CODA (PR: 8) (E)
9. “So May We Start” from Annette (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days (PR: 10) (E)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 3) (+1)
3. West Side Story (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Belfast (PR: 6) (E)
7. Licorice Pizza (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Power of the Dog (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Spencer (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Cyrano (PR: 10) (E)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 5) (+1)
5. No Time to Die (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Power of the Dog (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 6) (-1)
8. A Quiet Place Part II (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Last Night in Soho (PR: 10) (E)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 2) (E)
3. Godzilla vs. Kong (PR: 3) (E)
4. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (PR: 4) (E)
5. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. No Time to Die (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Free Guy (PR: 7) (E)
8. Eternals (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ghostbusters: Afterlife (PR: 9) (E)
10. Black Widow (PR: 10) (E)
This all equates to the following numbers of nominations for these pictures:
11 Nominations
Dune
9 Nominations
Belfast, The Power of the Dog
8 Nominations
West Side Story
5 Nominations
Don’t Look Up, Licorice Pizza
4 Nominations
King Richard, The Tragedy of Macbeth
3 Nominations
Being the Ricardos, CODA, Flee, House of Gucci, Tick, Tick… Boom!
2 Nominations
Cruella, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The French Dispatch, The Lost Daughter, Nightmare Alley, No Time to Die, Spencer
1 Nomination
C’Mon C’Mon, Coming 2 America, Drive My Car, The First Wave, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Hand of God, A Hero, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Passing, Procession, Ray and the Last Dragon, The Rescue, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Spider-Man: No Way Home, Summer of Soul, The Tender Bar, The Worst Person in the World
My final Oscar predictions of the calendar year brings changes in three major categories:
Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s Drive My Car, in addition to spending its second week at #1 in International Feature Film, pulls into the top ten for Best Picture. That’s at the expense of The Tragedy of Macbeth. I toyed with the idea of removing Don’t Look Up (which has drawn wildly mixed reactions from audiences and critics). I’m keeping it in as its most vocal supporters could keep Adam McKay’s satire in the mix.
In Best Actress, I’ve had a nagging suspicion that the quintet of Kristen Stewart, Jessica Chastain, Nicole Kidman, Olivia Colman, and Lady Gaga may not be the final five. Why? Mainly because I don’t have any of their movies getting BP nods. Since the Academy expanded to 5-10 nominees in that big race, there hasn’t been a year where the acting nominees didn’t represent at least one Best Picture nominee. That was in 2009. If you still went with the previously mentioned five, it might be wise to consider Spencer or Being the Ricardos or The Lost Daughter making the 10 BP contenders. I’m not prepared to put any of that trio in at the moment. Therefore – I’m dropping Gaga and elevating Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza). It could also be Rachel Zegler (West Side Story).
I’m going with a somewhat surprise nominee (perhaps two) in Supporting Actor. I still have Bradley Cooper (Pizza) making the cut and now I’m putting in Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog). This knocks out Jamie Dornan for Belfast. Last year, we saw a shocker when Lakeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah) made the supporting five. Power‘s potency (I have it as the favorite to take BP) could sweep Plemons in along with his costar Kodi Smit-McPhee (my #1). That could be a repeat of 2020 when Daniel Kaluuya won for Judas and Stanfield was in the race.
You can read all the movement below and my predictions will continue into the new year!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. West Side Story (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Dune (PR: 3) (-2)
6. King Richard (PR: 6) (E)
7. CODA (PR: 7) (E)
8. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 8) (E)
9. Don’t Look Up (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Drive My Car (PR: 12) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Being the Ricardos (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Nightmare Alley (PR: 11) (-2)
14. The Lost Daughter (PR: 14) (E)
15. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
A Hero
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 2) (E)
3. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (E)
8. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Asghar Farhadi, A Hero (PR: 9) (E)
10. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 3) (E)
4. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 7) (E)
8. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Emilia Jones, CODA (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 3) (E)
4. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (E)
5. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 4) (E)
5. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Rita Moreno, West Side Story (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Mike Faist, West Side Story (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar (PR: 7) (-2)
10. J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jason Isaacs, Mass
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. King Richard (PR: 3) (E)
4. Don’t Look Up (PR: 4) (E)
5. Being the Ricardos (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mass (PR: 8) (+2)
7. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 7) (E)
8. A Hero (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Parallel Mothers (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The French Dispatch (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. CODA (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Lost Daughter (PR: 4) (E)
5. Drive My Car (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Passing (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Last Duel (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nightmare Alley
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Encanto (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flee (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Luca (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Raya and the Last Dragon (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Belle (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Summit of the Gods (PR: 7) (E)
8. Vivo (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ron’s Gone Wrong (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sing 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Where Is Anne Frank
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Drive My Car (PR: 1) (E)
2. A Hero (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 3) (E)
4. Flee (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Hand of God (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. I’m Your Man (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Compartment No. 6 (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Prayers for the Stolen (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Great Freedom (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Lamb (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Flee (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Rescue (PR: 2) (E)
3. Summer of Soul (PR: 3) (E)
4. Procession (PR: 4) (E)
5. Attica (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The First Wave (PR: 6) (E)
7. Ascension (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Faya Dayi (PR: 8) (E)
9. President (PR: 7) (-2)
10. In the Same Breath (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Velvet Underground
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. West Side Story (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Belfast (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)
7. Licorice Pizza (PR: 7) (E)
8. The French Dispatch (PR: 9) (+1)
9. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Spencer (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cruella (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune (PR: 2) (E)
3. West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)
4. House of Gucci (PR: 4) (E)
5. Spencer (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Cyrano (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Last Night in Soho (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The French Dispatch
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. Don’t Look Up (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Power of the Dog (PR: 5) (-1)
7. King Richard (PR: 7) (E)
8. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 8) (E)
9. Being the Ricardos (PR: 9) (E)
10. Last Night in Soho (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nightmare Alley
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. House of Gucci (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3) (E)
4. Cruella (PR: 4) (E)
5. Coming 2 America (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Suicide Squad (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Cyrano (PR: 7) (-1)
9. West Side Story (PR: 9) (E)
10. No Time to Die (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Don’t Look Up (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The French Dispatch (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Spencer (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Parallel Mothers (PR: 7) (E)
8. King Richard (PR: 8) (E)
9. Encanto (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Green Knight (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Harder They Fall
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Be Alive” from King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Beyond the Shore” from CODA (PR: 6) (E)
7. “Guns Go Bang” from The Harder They Fall (PR: 7) (E)
8. “So May We Start” from Annette (PR: 9) (+1)
9. “Here I Am” from Respect (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days (PR: 10) (E)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (E)
5. Belfast (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Cyrano (PR: 10) (+3)
8. The Power of the Dog (PR: 8) (E)
9. Spencer (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Cruella (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Being the Ricardos
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. No Time to Die (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 6) (E)
7. A Quiet Place Part II (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Power of the Dog (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Last Night in Soho (PR: 10) (E)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Godzilla vs. Kong (PR: 4) (E)
5. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Free Guy (PR: 6) (E)
7. Ghostbusters: Afterlife (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Eternals (PR: 8) (E)
9. No Time to Die (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Black Widow (PR: 10) (E)
And this all equates to these numbers of nominations for said movies:
10 Nominations
Belfast, Dune
9 Nominations
The Power of the Dog, West Side Story
6 Nominations
Licorice Pizza
5 Nominations
Don’t Look Up, King Richard
3 Nominations
CODA, Drive My Car, Flee, Spencer, Tick, Tick… Boom!
2 Nominations
Being the Ricardos, Cruella, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The French Dispatch, House of Gucci, The Lost Daughter, No Time to Die, The Tragedy of Macbeth
1 Nomination
Attica, Coming 2 America, Cyrano, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Hand of God, A Hero, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Nightmare Alley, Passing, Procession, Raya and the Last Dragon, The Rescue, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Spider-Man: No Way Home, Summer of Soul, The Worst Person in the World
My pre-Christmas Oscar predictions implements no changes in Director, the acting races, or Original Screenplay. However, the Best Picture landscape is altered slightly as Tick Tick… Boom! is back in the top 10 with Nightmare Alley falling out.
In Adapted Screenplay, Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s Drive My Car makes the cut in place of Dune. In fact, Car is driving up higher in Picture and Director (where I have it placed in Other Possibilities for the first time). It’s also listed at #1 in International Feature Film over previous frontrunner A Hero. Don’t be surprised if Car keeps rising (it seems to be the foreign entry that could crash the BP derby).
Earlier this week, the shortlists came out in 7 feature film categories: International Feature Film, Documentary Feature, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, Original Song, Sound, Visual Effects. I wrote about that activity and it obviously changes the landscape in each of the races:
All the movement is contained below and have a Happy Holidays y’all!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Dune (PR: 4) (+1)
4. West Side Story (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
6. King Richard (PR: 6) (E)
7. CODA (PR: 7) (E)
8. Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: 11) (+3)
9. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Don’t Look Up (PR: 8) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
11. Nightmare Alley (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Drive My Car (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Being the Ricardos (PR: 12) (-1)
14. The Lost Daughter (PR: 13 (-1)
15. A Hero (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
C’Mon C’Mon
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 2) (E)
3. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 4) (E)
5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)
7. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Asghar Farhadi, A Hero (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 3) (E)
4. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Emilia Jones, CODA (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Andrew Garfield, Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: 3) (E)
4. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (E)
5. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 8) (E)
9. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 4) (E)
5. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 6) (E)
7. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Rita Moreno, West Side Story (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Judi Dench, Belfast
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 6) (E)
7. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Mike Faist, West Side Story (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Jason Isaacs, Mass (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. King Richard (PR: 3) (E)
4. Don’t Look Up (PR: 4) (E)
5. Being the Ricardos (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Hero (PR: 8) (+2)
7. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Mass (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The French Dispatch (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Parallel Mothers (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. CODA (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Lost Daughter (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Drive My Car (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Passing (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Nightmare Alley (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Encanto (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flee (PR: 2) (E)
3. Luca (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (PR: 4) (E)
5. Belle (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Raya and the Last Dragon (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Summit of the Gods (PR: 7) (E)
8. Vivo (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ron’s Gone Wrong (PR: 9) (E)
10. Where Is Anne Frank (PR: 10) (E)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Drive My Car (PR: 2) (+1)
2. A Hero (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 3) (E)
4. Flee (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Hand of God (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Compartment No. 6 (PR: 6) (E)
7. I’m Your Man (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Great Freedom (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Prayers for the Stolen (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Lamb (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Titane
Memoria
The Good Boss
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Flee (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Rescue (PR: 2) (E)
3. Summer of Soul (PR: 3) (E)
4. Procession (PR: 4) (E)
5. Attica (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The First Wave (PR: 5) (-1)
7. President (PR: 7) (E)
8. Faya Dayi (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Ascension (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Velvet Underground (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Lost Leonardo
Becoming Cousteau
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 4) (+2)
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3) (E)
4. West Side Story (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Belfast (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)
7. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Spencer (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The French Dispatch (PR: 8) (-1)
10. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 10) (E)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cruella (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune (PR: 3) (+1)
3. West Side Story (PR: 2) (-1)
4. House of Gucci (PR: 4) (E)
5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spencer (PR: 6) (E)
7. Licorice Pizza (PR: 7) (E)
8. The French Dispatch (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Last Night in Soho (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cyrano
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. Licorice Pizza (PR: 7) (+3)
5. The Power of the Dog (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (-1)
7. King Richard (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: 8) (E)
9. Being the Ricardos (PR: 9) (E)
10. Nightmare Alley (PR: 10) (E)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. House of Gucci (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3) (E)
4. Cruella (PR: 4) (E)
5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Coming 2 America (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Cyrano (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Suicide Squad (PR: Not Ranked)
9. West Side Story (PR: 8) (-1)
10. No Time to Die (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Spencer
Being the Ricardos
The Last Duel
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Spencer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Don’t Look Up (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The French Dispatch (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Parallel Mothers (PR: Not Ranked)
8. King Richard (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Encanto (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Harder They Fall (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nightmare Alley
Cyrano
Being the Ricardos
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Be Alive” from King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Beyond the Shore” from CODA (PR: 10) (+4)
7. “Guns Go Bang” from The Harder They Fall (PR: 7) (E)
8. “Here I Am” from Respect (PR: 6) (-2)
9. “So May We Start” from Annette (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Believe” from The Rescue
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 3) (+1)
3. West Side Story (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Belfast (PR: 6) (E)
7. Spencer (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Power of the Dog (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Being the Ricardos (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Cyrano (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. No Time to Die (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: Not Ranked)
7. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Power of the Dog (PR: Not Ranked)
9. A Quiet Place Part II (PR: 9) (E)
10. Last Night in Soho (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nightmare Alley
The Tragedy of Macbeth
The Last Duel
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 2) (E)
3. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 3) (E)
4. Godzilla vs. Kong (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Free Guy (PR: 8) (+2)
7. No Time to Die (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Eternals (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Ghostbusters: Afterlife (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Black Widow (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Don’t Look Up
Finch
And that works out to these films garnering these numbers for nominations:
10 Nominations
Belfast, Dune
9 Nominations
The Power of the Dog, West Side Story
5 Nominations
King Richard, Licorice Pizza, The Tragedy of Macbeth
4 Nominations
Don’t Look Up
3 Nominations
CODA, Flee, House of Gucci, Nightmare Alley, Tick Tick… Boom!
2 Nominations
Being the Ricardos, Cruella, Drive My Car, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The Lost Daughter, No Time to Die, Spencer
1 Nomination
Attica, Belle, Cyrano, The French Dispatch, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Hand of God, A Hero, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Passing, Procession, The Rescue, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Spider-Man: No Way Home, Summer of Soul, The Worst Person in the World
It’s a big day for us Oscar prognosticators as the shortlists were revealed this afternoon. For the uninitiated, there are seven feature film races where the Academy releases contenders ranging from 10-15 nominees. For Original Score, Song, International Feature Film, and Documentary Feature – we are given 15 hopefuls. In Makeup and Hairstyling, Sound, and Visual Effects – the list is dwindled to 10.
Let’s walk thru them one by one and I’ll talk about some surprises and omissions!
Best Original Score
The 15 Contenders:
Being the Ricardos
Candyman
Don’t Look Up
Dune
Encanto
The French Dispatch
The Green Knight
The Harder They Fall
King Richard
The Last Duel
No Time to Die
Parallel Mothers
The Power of the Dog
Spencer
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Commentary:
Based on my latest Oscar forecast from December 15th, my five predicted nominees (Dune, The Power of the Dog, Spencer, Don’t Look Up, The Tragedy of Macbeth) all made the cut. So did my #7 (The French Dispatch), #9 (Being the Ricardos), and #10 (King Richard). The two omissions from my top 10: (6) Nightmare Alley and (8) Cyrano.
The biggest surprise might be the inclusion of Candyman.
Best Original Song
The 15 Contenders:
“So May We Start” from Annette
“Down to Joy” from Belfast
“Right Where I Belong” from Brian Wilson: Long Promised Road
“Automatic Woman” from Bruised
“Dream Girl” from Cinderella
“Beyond the Shore” from CODA
“The Anonymous Ones” from Dear Evan Hansen
“Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up
“Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto
“Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days
“Guns Go Bang” from The Harder They Fall
“Be Alive” from King Richard
“No Time to Die” from No Time to Die
“Here I Am” from Respect
“Your Song Saved My Life” from Sing 2
Commentary:
My only top 10 ditty from 12/15 not on this list is “Believe” from The Rescue. I will note that “Every Letter” from Cyrano just dropped from my 10 last week and that turned out to be the correct call. This race still likely boils down to Beyonce (“Be Alive”) vs. Billie (“No Time to Die”).
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
The 10 Contenders:
Coming 2 America
Cruella
Cyrano
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
Nightmare Alley
No Time to Die
The Suicide Squad
West Side Story
Commentary:
A race where Cyrano isn’t left out! Last week I had Spencer in fifth position and it falls out. Same goes for Being the Ricardos (7) and The Last Duel (10). This is a competition that could go for Dune, Gucci, or Tammy as I see it.
Best Sound
The 10 Contenders:
Belfast
Dune
Last Night in Soho
The Matrix Resurrections
No Time to Die
The Power of the Dog
A Quiet Place Part II
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Tick Tick… Boom!
West Side Story
Commentary:
My predicted five from six days ago (Dune, West Side Story, Belfast, No Time to Die, Tick Tick… Boom!) are intact as are my #6 (Matrix) and #9 (A Quiet Place Part II). Not so for the films I had at 7, 8 and 10: Nightmare Alley, The Tragedy of Macbeth, The Last Duel). Fresh off its gargantuan box office, the Spidey mention shows potential strength at making the shorter shortlist.
Best Visual Effects
The 10 Contenders:
Black Widow
Dune
Eternals
Free Guy
Ghostbusters: Afterlife
Godzilla vs. Kong
The Matrix Resurrections
No Time to Die
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Commentary:
All 4 MCU movies from 2021 make it in as do three Warner Bros spectacles (Dune, Matrix, Godzilla). I had Don’t Look Up placed fourth but it falls out. So does Finch which I rated seventh. This certainly increases the chances for Marvel to have at least two in the final five, but there’s Dune and then everything else in this race.
Best Documentary Feature
The 15 Contenders:
Ascension
Attica
Billie Eilish: The World’s A Little Blurry
Faya Dayi
The First Wave
Flee
In the Same Breath
Julia
President
Procession
The Rescue
Simple As Water
Summer of Soul
The Velvet Underground
Writing with Fire
Commentary:
It’s tough luck for my #9 (The Lost Leonardo) and #10 (Becoming Cousteau) as this fascinating race plays out between The Rescue, Flee, and Summer of Soul.
Best International Feature Film
The 15 Contenders:
Compartment No. 6
Drive My Car
Flee
The Good Boss
Great Freedom
The Hand of God
A Hero
Hive
I’m Your Man
Lamb
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom
Playground
Plaza Catedral
Prayers for the Stolen
The Worst Person in the World
Commentary:
A Lamb and a Yak walk into the international competition, but the shocker of the day might be France’s Titane (which I had it 7th) not being mentioned. Same goes for #9 Memoria. This could be the category where Flee wins, but A Hero has been my #1. When I update my projections tomorrow, don’t be surprised if the rising Drive My Car from Japan takes over the top spot.
I’ll have fresh estimates in ALL feature categories posted tomorrow!
We have arrived at my post Golden Globe and Critics Choice Awards predictions for the Oscars! This week’s update comes with two significant #1 switches… starting with Best Picture.
For months, I’ve had Belfast positioned in the top spot. That changes today. Don’t get me wrong: the Kenneth Branagh coming-of-age drama could win Picture, Director, Supporting Actress and Actor, and Original Screenplay. However, for the first time, it’s not listed at #1 in any of those categories.
The #1 Picture slot could’ve gone to West Side Story, but I’m going with The Power of the Dog as it continues to nab critics prizes and place high atop best of lists. In Supporting Actress, I’m swapping Belfast‘s Caitriona Balfe for Ariana DeBose in West Side.
There’s other alterations in Picture and Supporting Actress. I’m putting Don’t Look Up back in the ten BP hopefuls despite its mixed reviews. That’s to the detriment of Tick Tick… Boom!
I’m also elevating Ruth Negga (Passing) in supporting over Rita Moreno (West Side Story).
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (Previous Ranking: 2) (+1)
2. Belfast (PR: 1) (-1)
3. West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)
4. Dune (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (-1)
6. King Richard (PR: 6) (E)
7. CODA (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Don’t Look Up (PR: 12) (+4)
9. Nightmare Alley (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
11. Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Being the Ricardos (PR: 13) (+1)
13. The Lost Daughter (PR: Not Ranked)
14. A Hero (PR: 14) (E)
15. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 11) (-4)
Dropped Out:
House of Gucci
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 4) (E)
5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)
7. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Asghar Farhadi, A Hero (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Reinaldo Marcus Green, King Richard
Julia Ducournau, Titane
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 6) (E)
7. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Emilia Jones, CODA (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Andrew Garfield, Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: 3) (E)
4. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (E)
5. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 6) (E)
7. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 7) (E)
8. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 8) (E)
9. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Clifton Collins Jr., Jockey
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 6) (E)
7. Rita Moreno, West Side Story (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Judi Dench, Belfast (PR: 9) (E)
10. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 6) (E)
7. Mike Faist, West Side Story (PR: 7) (E)
8. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Jason Isaacs, Mass (PR: 9) (E)
10. J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Richard Jenkins, The Humans
Jon Bernthal, King Richard
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. King Richard (PR: 3) (E)
4. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Being the Ricardos (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Mass (PR: 8) (+1)
8. A Hero (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Parallel Mothers (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The French Dispatch (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Worst Person in the World
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Lost Daughter (PR: 3) (E)
4. CODA (PR: 4) (E)
5. Dune (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Drive My Car (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Passing (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Humans
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Encanto (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flee (PR: 2) (E)
3. Luca (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Belle (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Raya and the Last Dragon (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Summit of the Gods (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Vivo (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ron’s Gone Wrong (PR: 9) (E)
10. Where Is Anne Frank (PR: 10) (E)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. A Hero (PR: 1) (E)
2. Drive My Car (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 3) (E)
4. Flee (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Hand of God (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Compartment No. 6 (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Titane (PR: 6) (-1)
8. I’m Your Man (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Memoria (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Good Boss (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Prayers for the Stolen
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Flee (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Rescue (PR: 2) (E)
3. Summer of Soul (PR: 3) (E)
4. Procession (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The First Wave (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Attica (PR: 4) (-2)
7. President (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Velvet Underground (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Lost Leonardo (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Becoming Cousteau (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Ascension
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Power of the Dog (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Belfast (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Spencer (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The French Dispatch (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (E)
10. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 10) (E)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cruella (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Dune (PR: 3) (E)
4. House of Gucci (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spencer (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Cyrano (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The French Dispatch (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Last Night in Soho (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Belfast (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The Power of the Dog (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. King Richard (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Being the Ricardos (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Nightmare Alley (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 2) (+1)
2. House of Gucci (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3) (E)
4. Cruella (PR: 4) (E)
5. Spencer (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Being the Ricardos (PR: 8) (+1)
8. West Side Story (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Cyrano (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Last Duel (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Spencer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (+3)
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The French Dispatch (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Cyrano (PR: 8) (E)
9. Being the Ricardos (PR: 10) (+1)
10. King Richard (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Be Alive” from King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto (PR: 5) (+2)
4. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (PR: 3) (-1)
5. “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Here I Am” from Respect (PR: 10) (+4)
7. “Guns Go Bang” from The Harder They Fall (PR: Not Ranked)
8. “So May We Start” from Annette (PR: 7) (-1)
9. “Believe” from The Rescue (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Beyond the Shore” from CODA (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
“Every Letter” from Cyrano
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (E)
5. Being the Ricardos (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Belfast (PR: 8) (+2)
7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Cyrano (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Spencer (PR: 6) (-3)
10. The Power of the Dog (PR: 10) (E)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. No Time to Die (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4) (-3)
8. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (-1)
9. A Quiet Place Part II (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Last Duel (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Don’t Look Up
King Richard
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 2) (E)
3. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Godzilla vs. Kong (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (PR: 6) (E)
7. Finch (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Free Guy (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Eternals (PR: 3) (-6)
10. No Time to Die (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Suicide Squad
My current estimates mean these movies nabbing these numbers in terms of nominations:
11 Nominations
Dune
10 Nominations
Belfast
9 Nominations
The Power of the Dog, West Side Story
6 Nominations
Don’t Look Up
5 Nominations
King Richard
4 Nominations
Licorice Pizza, The Tragedy of Macbeth
3 Nominations
Being the Ricardos, CODA, Flee, House of Gucci, Nightmare Alley, Spencer
2 Nominations
Cruella, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The Lost Daughter, No Time to Die, Tick Tick… Boom!
1 Nomination
Belle, Cyrano, Drive My Car, The First Wave, The French Dispatch, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Hand of God, A Hero, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Passing, Procession, The Rescue, Spider-Man: No Way Home, Summer of Soul, The Worst Person in the World
My Oscar predictions in all feature film categories are updated and there’s movement to discuss! There’s been a change in my ten Best Picture nominees for the first time in several weeks as House of Gucci has fallen and I’m putting Don’t Look Up in. The social media reaction to Gucci has resulted in it dropping for multiple categories. I still have Lady Gaga garnering an Actress nod (though she drops from 2nd to 4th) as well as Costume Design and Makeup and Hairstyling.
In other developments:
Andrew Garfield vaults from 6th to 3rd in Best Actor for Tick, Tick… Boom! That’s to the detriment of Joaquin Phoenix for C’Mon C’Mon
Two changes in the ever evolving Supporting Actor derby with Jason Isaacs (Mass) and Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog) making the cut and displacing Jared Leto (Gucci) and Ciaran Hinds (Belfast)
Ariana DeBose (West Side Story) is on the outside looking in for Supporting Actress with Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard) rising
Don’t Look Up also enters Original Screenplay with Mass falling out of the top five
You can read all the updates right here!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Belfast (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. King Richard (PR: 3) (E)
4. Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Dune (PR: 4) (-1)
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)
7. West Side Story (PR: 7) (E)
8. Don’t Look Up (PR: 12) (+4)
9. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Spencer (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Flee (PR: 11) (E)
12. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 14) (+2)
13. House of Gucci (PR: 8) (-5)
14. CODA (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Mass (PR: 13) (-2)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Pablo Larrain, Spencer (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Reinaldo Marcus Green, King Richard (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Flee (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Ridley Scott, House of Gucci
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (E)
8. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Jodie Comer, The Last Duel
Tessa Thompson, Passing
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 8) (E)
9. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Jude Hill, Belfast (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Adam Driver, House of Gucci
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 3) (E)
4. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Judi Dench, Belfast (PR: 7) (E)
8. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 8) (E)
9. Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (E)
2. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jason Isaacs, Mass (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Jon Bernthal, King Richard (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Al Pacino, House of Gucci
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Belfast (PR: 1) (E)
2. Licorice Pizza (PR: 2) (E)
3. King Richard (PR: 4) (E)
4. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (+3)
5. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mass (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Spencer (PR: 6) (-1)
8. A Hero (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Parallel Mothers (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Humans (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Lost Daughter (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Passing (PR: 9) (+3)
7. West Side Story (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Dune (PR: 7) (-1)
9. CODA (PR: Not Ranked)
10. House of Gucci (PR: 6) (-4)
Dropped Out:
The Last Duel
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Flee (PR: 1) (E)
2. Encanto (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (PR: 3) (E)
4. Luca (PR: 4) (E)
5. Belle (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Summit of the Gods (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Raya and the Last Dragon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Ron’s Gone Wrong (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Who Is Anne Frank (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Charlotte (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Vivo
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. A Hero (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 2) (E)
3. Flee (PR: 3) (E)
4. Drive My Car (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Titane (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Hand of God (PR: 4) (-2)
7. I’m Your Man (PR: 7) (E)
8. Compartment No. 6 (PR: 8) (E)
9. Great Freedom (PR: 9) (E)
10. Memoria (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Rescue (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flee (PR: 2) (E)
3. Summer of Soul (PR: 3) (E)
4. Attica (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Lost Leonardo (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The First Wave (PR: 9) (+3)
7. President (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Ailey (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Procession (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Becoming Cousteau (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Ascension
The Velvet Underground
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Power of the Dog (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Belfast (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. West Side Story (PR: 6) (E)
7. Spencer (PR: 7) (E)
8. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The French Dispatch (PR: 8) (-1)
10. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Last Duel
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cruella (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Spencer (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Dune (PR: 4) (+1)
4. House of Gucci (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. West Side Story (PR: 6) (E)
7. The French Dispatch (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Cyrano (PR: 8) (E)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Electrical Life of Louis Wain (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (E)
5. West Side Story (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Power of the Dog (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (-1)
8. King Richard (PR: 8) (E)
9. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: Not Ranked)
10. House of Gucci (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. House of Gucci (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Cruella (PR: 4) (E)
5. Spencer (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Suicide Squad (PR: 7) (E)
8. Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Green Knight (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Last Duel
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Spencer (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (+3)
4. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (-2)
5. The French Dispatch (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Cyrano (PR: 10) (+2)
9. King Richard (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Belfast (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Licorice Pizza
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Be Alive” from King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto (PR: Not Ranked)
3. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (PR: 2) (-1)
4. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Every Letter” from Cyrano (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. “So May We Start” from Annette (PR: 6) (E)
7. “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up (PR: Not Ranked)
8. “Believe” from The Rescue (PR: 7) (-1)
9. “Here I Am” from Respect (PR: 5) (-4)
10. “Guns Go Bang” from The Harder They Fall (PR: 10) (E)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Dune (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (+1)
4. West Side Story (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Spencer (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (E)
7. Cyrano (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Belfast (PR: 7) (-1)
9. House of Gucci (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Power of the Dog
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4) (E)
5. No Time to Die (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: Not Ranked)
7. A Quiet Place Part II (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Last Duel (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Cyrano (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Matrix Resurrections
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 2) (E)
3. Godzilla vs. Kong (PR: 3) (E)
4. Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Free Guy (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Eternals (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Finch (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Spider-Man: Far From Home (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Suicide Squad (PR: 10) (E)
And that equates to the following pictures nabbing these numbers in terms of nominations:
10 Nominations
Dune
9 Nominations
Belfast
8 Nominations
Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog
6 Nominations
Spencer
5 Nominations
King Richard, Licorice Pizza
4 Nominations
Don’t Look Up, The Tragedy of Macbeth, West Side Story
3 Nominations
Flee, House of Gucci
2 Nominations
Cruella, Cyrano, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The French Dispatch, The Humans, The Lost Daughter, Mass, No Time to Die
1 Nomination
Attica, Belle, C’Mon C’Mon, Drive My Car, Godzilla vs. Kong, A Hero, The Lost Leonardo, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Passing, The Rescue, Respect, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Summer of Soul, Tick, Tick… Boom!, Titane, The Worst Person in the World
Denis Villeneuve’s Dune hit box office expectations this past weekend and I’m more confident than ever that it makes the Best Picture ten. Belfast still maintains the #1 slot in Picture and I nearly put its maker Kenneth Branagh in the same spot in Director. Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog) is hanging on by a thread as I also believe Villeneuve could be rewarded for his technical bravura behind the camera.
Per usual, I’ve made a change in the #5 rank in Actor – swapping out Andrew Garfield (Tick, Tick… Boom!) for Joaquin Phoenix (C’Mon C’Mon). It was a good week for the upcoming Phoenix comedic drama as it reenters Original Screenplay over Spencer.
You can read all the latest activity below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Belfast (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. King Richard (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Dune (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 3) (-2)
6. Licorice Pizza (PR: 6) (E)
7. West Side Story (PR: 7) (E)
8. House of Gucci (PR: 8) (E)
9. Spencer (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Don’t Look Up (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Mass (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Flee (PR: 14) (+1)
14. CODA (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 13) (-2)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Pablo Larrain, Spencer (PR: 6) (E)
7. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 7) (E)
8. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Reinaldo Marcus Green, King Richard (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Julia Ducournau, Titane (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out: Ridley Scott, House of Gucci
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6)
7. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Jodie Comer, The Last Duel (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 9) (E)
10. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3) (E)
4. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 4) (E)
5. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Adam Driver, House of Gucci (PR: 9) (E)
10. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 4) (E)
5. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Judi Dench, Belfast (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Rooney Mara, Nightmare Alley (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Martha Plimpton, Mass
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jason Isaacs, Mass (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jon Bernthal, King Richard (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar (PR: 9) (E)
10. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Andrew Garfield, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Belfast (PR: 1) (E)
2. Licorice Pizza (PR: 2) (E)
3. King Richard (PR: 3) (E)
4. Mass (PR: 4) (E)
5. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spencer (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Parallel Mothers (PR: 9) (E)
10. A Hero (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Humans (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Lost Daughter (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. House of Gucci (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Dune (PR: 8) (+1)
8. West Side Story (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Passing (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Last Duel (PR: 10) (E)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Flee (PR: 1) (E)
2. Encanto (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (PR: 3) (E)
4. Luca (PR: 2) (E)
5. Belle (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Raya and the Last Dragon (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Summit of the Gods (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Where Is Anne Frank (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Vivo (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Ron’s Gone Wrong (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Marcel the Shell With Shoes On
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. A Hero (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 2) (E)
3. Flee (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Hand of God (PR: 4) (+2)
5. Titane (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Drive My Car (PR: 5) (-1)
7. I’m Your Man (PR: 7) (E)
8. Compartment No. 6 (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Great Freedom (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Memoria (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Rescue (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flee (PR: 2) (E)
3. Summer of Soul (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Attica (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Lost Leonardo (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. President (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Becoming Cousteau (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Ascension (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The First Wave (PR: 6) (-3)
10. The Velvet Underground (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Ailey
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 2) (+1)
2. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Belfast (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Nightmare Alley (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Power of the Dog (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. West Side Story (PR: 6) (E)
7. Spencer (PR: 7) (E)
8. The French Dispatch (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Last Duel (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cyrano
C’Mon C’Mon
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spencer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Cruella (PR: 3) (+1)
3. House of Gucci (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Dune (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The French Dispatch (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. West Side Story (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Nightmare Alley (PR: 7) (E)
8. Cyrano (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Last Duel
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Power of the Dog (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (+1)
5. West Side Story (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 8) (+1)
8. King Richard (PR: 7) (-1)
9. House of Gucci (PR: 9) (E)
10. Spencer (PR: 10) (E)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. House of Gucci (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune (PR: 2) (E)
3. Spencer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Cruella (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Suicide Squad (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Green Knight (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Last Duel (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Licorice Pizza (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cyrano
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Spencer (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (-1)
5. The French Dispatch (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Belfast (PR: 7) (E)
8. King Richard (PR: 10) (-2)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (E)
10. Cyrano (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Don’t Look Up
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Be Alive” from King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Colombia, Mi Encanto” from Encanto (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Here I Am” from Respect (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “So May We Start” from Annette (PR: 8) (+2)
7. “Believe” from The Rescue (PR: 7) (E)
8. “Every Letter” from Cyrano (PR: 5) (-3)
9. “Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Guns Go Bang” from The Harder They Fall (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Beyond the Shore” from CODA
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (E)
3. West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)
4. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (E)
5. Cyrano (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Belfast (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Spencer (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Power of the Dog (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. Belfast (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (+1)
5. No Time to Die (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Last Duel (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 7) (-1)
9. A Quiet Place Part II (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Cyrano (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Don’t Look Up
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Godzilla vs. Kong (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Eternals (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Free Guy (PR: 7) (E)
8. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Green Knight (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Suicide Squad (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Finch
This adds up to these pictures nabbing the following numbers in terms of nominations:
10 Nominations
Dune
9 Nominations
Belfast
8 Nominations
The Power of the Dog
6 Nominations
Nightmare Alley
5 Nominations
House of Gucci, King Richard, Licorice Pizza, Spencer, The Tragedy of Macbeth, West Side Story
3 Nominations
Flee, The French Dispatch, Mass
2 Nominations
C’Mon C’Mon, Cruella, Cyrano, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The Humans, No Time to Die, Respect
1 Nomination
Attica, Belle, Don’t Look Up, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Hand of God, A Hero, The Lost Leonardo, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, The Rescue Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Summer of Soul, Titane, The Worst Person in the World
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