Todd’s Weekly 2017 Oscar Predictions: December 11th Edition

Back at it again with my weekly Oscar predictions. There’s been a host of precursor activity in the past week with the biggest coming this morning as the Golden Globe nominations were announced.

The verdict? The five nominated Best Drama contenders are all very likely Oscar competitors – Dunkirk, The Shape of Water, The Post, Three Billboards, Call Me by Your Name. In the Comedy category, both Lady Bird and Get Out got in as expected.

Speaking of Get Out, this week marks its first inclusion in my estimated nine contenders. In fact, it vaults four spots up to #7. Something had to come out and it was Darkest Hour, whose luster seems to be fading.

Another Globe surprise: the strong showing for All the Money in the World. Reviews have yet to come, but it was nominated for Director (Ridley Scott), Actress in Drama (Michelle Williams), and Supporting Actor (Christopher Plummer, who famously took over the role from the embattled Kevin Spacey). All three debut on the lower rung on my predictions.

In other developments:

  • Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water) is in for Supporting Actor over Mark Rylance (Dunkirk)
  • Two changes in Supporting Actress with Melissa Leo (Novitiate) and Hong Chau (Downsizing) in over Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water) and Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread)
  • In the Screenplay races, Wonder is in for Adapted over Wonderstruck while in the crowded Original Screenplay category, The Shape of Water is back in over Phantom Thread

Read on!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Lady Bird (PR: 3)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

4. The Post (PR: 2)

5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)

6. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)

7. Get Out (PR: 11)

8. The Florida Project (PR: 9)

9. Phantom Thread (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

10. Darkest Hour (PR: 8)

11. Mudbound (PR: 10)

12. I, Tonya (PR: 12)

13. Detroit (PR: 13)

14. All the Money in the World (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

The Disaster Artist

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (PR: 3)

4. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 4)

5. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)

7. Jordan Peele, Get Out (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 7)

9. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 8)

10. Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Sean Baker, The Florida Project

Joe Wright, Darkest Hour

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)

3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)

5. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 7)

7. Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 6)

9. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 9)

10. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Robert Pattinson, Good Time

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 1)

2. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 2)

3. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 3)

4. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 4)

5. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 6)

7. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 7)

8. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 9)

9. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 8)

10. Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Vicky Krieps, Phantom Thread 

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)

2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 4)

5. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 5)

7. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 6)

8. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 8)

9. Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 2)

2. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 1)

3. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 4)

4. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 6)

5. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)

7. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread (PR: 3)

8. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 9)

9. Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip (PR: 10)

10. Lois Smith, Marjorie Prime (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)

2. The Disaster Artist (PR: 2)

3. Mudbound (PR: 3)

4. Molly’s Game (PR: 4)

5. Wonder (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)

7. All the Money in the World (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Last Flag Flying (PR: 6)

9. The Beguiled (PR: 9)

10. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Victoria and Abdul 

First, They Killed My Father

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lady Bird (PR: 2)

2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)

3. Get Out (PR: 5)

4. The Post (PR: 4)

5. The Shape of Water (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Phantom Thread (PR: 3)

7. The Florida Project (PR: 7)

8. I, Tonya (PR: 8)

9. The Big Sick (PR: 9)

10. Dunkirk (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Darkest Hour 

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Coco (PR: 1)

2. The Breadwinner (PR: 3)

3. Loving Vincent (PR: 2)

4. Cars 3 (PR: 5)

5. The Girl Without Hands (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. The LEGO Batman Movie (PR: 6)

7. Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (PR: 4)

8. Despicable Me 3 (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Boss Baby (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales (PR: 7)

Dropped Out:

Ferdinand

Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie

In this Corner of the World

Best Foreign Language Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Foxtrot (PR: 2)

2. BPM (Beats Per Minute) (PR: 1)

3. The Square (PR: 7)

4. First, They Killed My Father (PR: 3)

5. Loveless (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Fantastic Woman (PR: 6)

7. In the Fade (PR: 4)

8. The Insult (PR: 5)

9. Thelma (PR: 9)

10. The Divine Order (PR: 10)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jane (PR: 1)

2. Faces Places (PR: 5)

3. City of Ghosts (PR: 3)

4. Long Strange Trip (PR: 7)

5. Strong Island (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power (PR: Not Ranked)

7. One of Us (PR: 9)

8. Abacus: Small Enough to Jail (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Chasing Coral (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Cries from Syria

Icarus

Risk

Kedi

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. The Post (PR: 2)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. Lady Bird (PR: 5)

5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. I, Tonya (PR: 6)

7. Get Out (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Darkest Hour (PR: 8)

9. Call Me by Your Name (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Detroit (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Phantom Thread

Blade Runner 2049 

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. The Post (PR: 4)

5. Wonderstruck (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)

7. Mudbound (PR: 8)

8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 7)

9. Lady Bird (PR: 9)

10. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 10)

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 3)

4. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 5)

5. Phantom Thread (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Post (PR: 7)

7. The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)

8. Wonderstruck (PR: 8)

9. Darkest Hour (PR: 6)

10. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Phantom Thread (PR: 1)

2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. The Post (PR: 4)

5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)

7. The Beguiled (PR: 7)

8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)

9. Wonderstruck (PR: 10)

10. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Wonder Wheel

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Phantom Thread (PR: 5)

3. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)

Other Possibilities:

4. Wonder (PR: 9)

5. I, Tonya (PR: 6)

6. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 3)

7. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

8. The Greatest Showman (PR: 7)

9. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 8)

10. It (PR: 10)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 4)

4. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 3)

5. Dunkirk (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 6)

7. Spider-Man: Homecoming (PR: 7)

8. Wonder Woman (PR: 9)

9. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 8)

10. Thor: Ragnarok (PR: 10)

Best Sound Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 5)

4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)

5. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Baby Driver (PR: 6)

7. Wonder Woman (PR: 7)

8. Detroit (PR: 10)

9. The Post (PR: 8)

10. The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)

Best Sound Mixing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 7)

4. Baby Driver (PR: 3)

5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 6)

7. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 8)

8. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 10)

9. Detroit (PR: 5)

10. Transformers: The Last Knight (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Post

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Phantom Thread (PR: 2)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)

3. Dunkirk (PR: 3)

4. The Post (PR: 4)

5. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 10)

7. Wonderstruck (PR: 6)

8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 7)

9. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 9)

10. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Remember Me” from Coco (PR: 1)

2. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall (PR: 2)

3. “Mighty River” from Mudbound (PR: Not Ranked)

4. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)

5. “The Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria (PR: 3)

7. “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit (PR: 7)

8. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker (PR: 6)

9. “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “Truth to Power” from An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

“Come Alive” from The Greatest Showman

“The Promise” from The Promise

And that break down for the following number of nominations for each picture:

13 Nominations

The Shape of Water

9 Nominations

Dunkirk, The Post

6 Nominations

Phantom Thread, Lady Bird, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Call Me by Your Name

5 Nominations

Blade Runner 2049

4 Nominations

Beauty and the Beast

3 Nominations

Darkest Hour, Mudbound

2 Nominations

Get Out, The Florida Project, The Disaster Artist, I, Tonya, Coco, The Greatest Showman, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, War for the Planet of the Apes

1 Nomination

Novitiate, Downsizing, Molly’s Game, Wonder, Wonderstruck, Baby Driver, Marshall, The Breadwinner, Loving Vincent, Cars 3, The Girl Without Hands, Foxtrot, BPM (Beats Per Minute), The Square, First, They Killed My Father, Loveless, Jane, Faces Places, City of Ghosts, Long Strange Trip, Strong Island 

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