DreamWorks Animation hopes to reverse diminishing returns for its comedic martial arts franchise when Kung Fu Panda 4 arrives in theaters March 8th. Mike Mitchell, maker of such genre fare including Shrek Forever After and Trolls, directs. Jack Black is back voicing the title character alongside returnees Dustin Hoffman, James Hong, Bryan Cranston, and Ian McShane. Newcomers include Awkwafina, Ke Huy Quan, Ronny Chieng, Lori Tan Chinn, and Viola Davis.
In the summer of 2008, the first Panda sighting kicked off with $60 million and an eventual $215 million domestic haul. Three summers later, the second edition also made $60 million. However, that was with an extra day of grosses due to the Memorial Day holiday. Its lesser total was $165 million. By January 2016, Kung Fu Panda 3 premiered at $41 million and then $143 million overall.
The eight year layoff is easily the longest between entries. Absence could make the heart grow fonder or at least enough to match its predecessor’s beginning. Yet I suspect mid to high 30s is more likely.
Kung Fu Panda 4 opening weekend prediction: $38.1 million
Trolls Band Together from DreamWorks is the third animated feature in the musical franchise out November 17th with Anna Kendrick, Justin Timberlake, and many others on crooning duty.
Thus far the critical response is below its two predecessors. 2016’s Trolls sat at 75% on Rotten Tomatoes while 2020 follow-up Trolls World Tour was a hair under at 71%. At press time, Band Together has managed just 56% on the meter.
The two earlier Trolls entries failed to nab Animated Feature nods at the Oscars and this won’t either. In fact, I’d say it’s easily behind three other sequels in Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, and Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget.
Seven years ago, this series earned its only Academy mention for Timberlake’s smash hit “Can’t Stop the Feeling” (it lost to “City of Stars” from La La Land). This second sequel does boast an NSYNC reunion after two decades with the track “Better Place”. Yet it is not dominating the charts like band member JT’s aforementioned ditty managed. Like World Tour, Band doesn’t seem primed for an encore come awards time. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Featuring tracks from Kendrick and Cabello and the first NSYNC track in over two decades, Together hopes to bring in a large crowd. The first Trolls opened to a better than expected $46 million with an eventual $153 million domestic haul. Yet any clues for sequel demand were made complicated by follow-up Trolls World Tour. It went the VOD route due to coming out in April 2020 as movie theaters were shuttered by the COVID pandemic. There are estimates that it took in around $150 million in rentals.
Where does that leave our third song and dance fest? I certainly think this won’t match the mid 40s debut from 2016. This seems likely to start slower though it could have a healthy hold in its second frame over the long Thanksgiving weekend.
I’ll say mid to high 20s to possibly low 30s is where this Band begins as it hopes for pleasing encores over the holidays.
Trolls Band Together opening weekend prediction: $26.7 million
For my The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes prediction, click here:
Blogger’s Update (06/29): I have revised my prediction from $10.8 million down to $7.8 million
DreamWorks is banking on young girls and their parents depositing their money and time into Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken when it debuts June 30th. The animated coming-of-age fantasy is directed by Kirk DeMicco, who helmed blockbuster The Croods for the studio a decade ago. Lana Condor voices the high school sophomore title character. Other performers mic’d up include Toni Collette, Annie Murphy, Sam Richardson, Colman Domingo, Will Forte, Liza Koshy, and Jane Fonda.
The studio just had a sizable hit with Puss in Boots: The Last Wish over the holidays and they have future entries in the Trolls and Kung Fu Panda series on deck. Kraken has the disadvantage of not being based on known IP and following Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse and Pixar’s Elemental.
There doesn’t seem to be much chatter for this one. If Elemental couldn’t hit $30 million out of the gate, I question whether Gillman can reach half of that number. I’ll project that it falls short for an underwhelming premiere.
Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken opening weekend prediction: $7.8 million
For my Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny prediction, click here:
I’m sad to report that Palmer starring Justin Timberlake does not feature the pop superstar playing 1980s “Addicted to Love” crooner Robert Palmer (that would be pretty sweet). Instead the drama (streaming on Apple TV this Friday) casts JT as a former felon caring for a young boy. Fisher Stevens directs with a supporting cast featuring Juno Temple, Ryder Allen, Alisha Wainwright, and June Squibb.
As of late, Timberlake has mostly focused on his music efforts. His acting credits in recent years has primarily consisted of voice work in the Trolls franchise. Some critics have praised his performance here, but the 56% Rotten Tomatoes score indicates this won’t be an awards contender.
Bottom line: Palmer doesn’t have the look of a late breaking Academy hopeful and it should be easy for voters to simply resist it. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
Well… it feels a little strange to be back doing an Oscar Watch post, but here we are! The coronavirus pandemic has changed our lives during this time and that certainly has impacted the release of films as movie theaters are shut down.
Studios have had to be creative lately and the animated sequel Trolls World Tour became available for digital distribution today in lieu of a theatrical bow. The DreamWorks Animation flick is a follow-up to the hit 2016 musical and features the voice work of Anna Kendrick, Justin Timberlake, James Corden, and Ozzy Osbourne.
Four years back, the original Trolls broke through with audiences and most critics with a 76% Rotten Tomatoes score. Part 2 is a notch below that with a still solid 71%. That said, the predecessor failed to nab a Best Animated Feature nomination and I wouldn’t expect this to grab one either.
Of course, there is the genuine question of shifting release dates with various titles already pushed to 2021. That could potentially increase the chance for a nomination, but I wouldn’t count on it.
In 2016, Trolls did achieve one nomination. That was for Justin Timberlake’s hit song “Can’t Stop the Feeling!”. It lost to “City of Stars” from La La Land. Mr. Timberlake has teamed with SZA for “The Other Side” and that seems to be the track that DreamWorks might campaign for an Original Song nod. However, “Side” has currently peaked at 17 on the Billboard Top 40. Its road to a nomination is certainly less assured than the massive “Feeling!”.
The Warner Animation Group hopes to build back up its near half billion dollar domestic franchise next weekend with the release of TheLegoMovie2: TheSecondPart. This direct sequel arrives five years after its hit predecessor, though there’s been two spin-offs in the meantime. Mike Mitchell, who made ShrekForeverAfter and Trolls, takes over directing duties from Christopher Miller and Phil Lord (they wrote the screenplay). Returning voices include Chris Pratt, Elizabeth Banks, Will Arnett (he’s Batman), Charlie Day, Nick Offerman, Alison Brie, and Will Ferrell. Familiar faces joining the voiceover party are aplenty. They include Tiffany Haddish, Maya Rudolph, Channing Tatum, Jonah Hill, Brooklyn Prince, and thespians from the DC Cinematic Universe (Gal Gadot, Margot Robbie, Jason Momoa).
In February of 2014, TheLegoMovie earned $69 million out of the gate with an eventual stateside take of $257 million. Our first spin-off, 2017’s TheLegoBatmanMovie, achieved $53 million for its start and $175 million total. A few months later, TheLegoNinjagoMovie was a legitimate disappointment. It premiered with only $20 million and didn’t leg out well ($59 million).
As they were with the first part, reviews are positive as this stands at 93% on Rotten Tomatoes. Several critics, however, have noted it doesn’t quite match up to the original. While this should easily debut at #1, I’ll project that it falls short of the 2014 earnings. Topping $50 million is certainly possible, but I’ll go just shy of that number.
TheLegoMovie2: TheSecondPart opening weekend prediction: $48.6 million
Blogger’s Note: on the eve of its premiere, I’m giving this a bump from $56.4 million to $63.4 million
Illumination Entertainment’s The Grinch looks to be a profitable one when it hits theaters next weekend. The animated take on the Dr. Seuss classic features the voice of Benedict Cumberbatch as the grumpy Christmas hating character. Other voice over work is provided by Cameron Seely, Rashida Jones, Kenan Thompson, Angela Lansbury, and Pharrell Williams. Scott Mosier and Yarrow Cheney (who co-directed Illumination’s The Secret Life of Pets) are the filmmakers.
In 2000, the live-action version of this tale with Jim Carrey was a massive smash for Universal (Illumination’s parent company). There has been plenty of family pics over the last couple of months and The Grinch will get plenty more competition in following weekends. Both Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald and Ralph Breaks the Internet are on deck.
That said, Illumination has had an impressive track record during this decade with the Despicable Me/Minions franchise and Pets. This is their first foray into the month of November, but plenty of other studios have planted their animated flag into the same time frame. In 2012, Wreck-It Ralph took in $49 million for its start. Two years later, Big Hero 6 made $56 million. In 2015, The Peanuts Movie started with $44 million and Trolls premiered to $46 million a year later. Yet the best comp could end up being 2000’s How the Grinch Stole Christmas, which bowed to $55 million. I’ll put it just over that as this Grinch looks to leg out well throughout the holiday season.
The Grinch opening weekend prediction: $63.4 million
For my The Girl in the Spider’s Web prediction, click here:
Dreamworks is the first studio with an animated feature for the summer season as Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie hits screens next weekend. Based on a series of well-known childrens books by Dav Pilkey, the film features the voices of Kevin Hart, Ed Helms, Nick Kroll, Jordan Peele, and Thomas Middleditch. The screenplay comes from Nicholas Stoller, who made last year’s under performing Storks.Â
Underpants is certainly more of a question mark than some of the other animated tales this season – namely Cars 3 and Despicable Me 3, both of which arrive in June. That said, Dreamworks has a mostly solid history of producing hits. 2014’s Mr. Peabody & Sherman debuted to $32 million, 2015’s Home exceeded expectations with $52 million, Trolls made $46 million last fall, and The Boss Baby opened to $50 million in March, outpacing its projections.
While I don’t see this effort getting past $40 million (though it could happen), I believe a high 20s to maybe low 30s debut is in the cards as the studio likely hopes for a sequel (based on the title).
Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie opening weekend prediction: $27.4 million
Good Sunday all! 15 days from today, the Oscars will air and for the next three Sundays, I’ll be giving you my take on where I see each category standing. This means my winner prediction and each nominee listed in order of likelihood to take their prize.
My final predictions will post on Sunday, February 26 prior to the broadcast the next day. Let’s get to it, shall we?
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