Originally slated to open last summer, the sci-fi alien invasion thriller CaptiveState touches down in theaters next weekend. Rupert Wyatt, best known for 2011’s RiseofthePlanetoftheApes, directs. John Goodman (no stranger to extraterrestrial beings as evidenced by 10CloverfieldLane) leads a cast that includes Ashton Sanders, Machine Gun Kelly, Alan Ruck, Kiki Layne, and Vera Farmiga.
The Focus Features release seems to be flying far under the radar. Many pics in this sub genre are high-profile releases with massive budgets. This comes with a price tag of only about $25 million. That was probably the catering receipt for WaroftheWorlds.
That said, I don’t see this recouping its minimal cost during the stateside domestic run. I’ll say this only reaches mid single digits (if it’s lucky) before it lifts off quickly to On Demand status. I’ll say it doesn’t even get there.
CaptiveState opening weekend prediction: $2.8 million
Youthful romance is center stage in the drama FiveFeetApart this Friday. Justin Baldoni directs Haley Lu Richardson (best known for Split) as a cystic fibrosis patient who catches the eye of Cole Sprouse (currently on TV’s “Riverdale”) with the same condition. Costars include Moises Arias, Parminder Nagra, and Claire Forlani.
The film is based on a novel by Rachael Lippincott. It came out in November of last year and the rights to its adaptation were sold well before its release. CBS Films is hoping this appeals to fans of TheFaultinOurStars. I believe the opening grosses of them will be many millions apart.
I’ll project this manages to reach double digits, though not by much.
FiveFeetApart opening weekend prediction: $10.7 million
It’s been a bumpy ride for Nickelodeon’s animated feature WonderPark, but it finally hits screens this Friday. Originally titled AmusementPark and scheduled for release last summer, the pic comes with a reported $100 million price tag. The film’s director Dylan Brown was fired by the studio in early 2018 due to various sexual harassment claims. Newcomer Brianna Denski provides the lead voiceover role along with familiar faces such as Jennifer Garner, Matthew Broderick, Kenan Thompson, Ken Jeong, Mila Kunis, and John Oliver.
The box office grosses for Park, considering its hefty price tag, might not be amusing at all. It doesn’t help that CaptainMarvel will be in its sophomore frame as it also appeals to family crowds. I believe this will make low double digits for its start and that would amount to a costly flop for Paramount.
WonderPark opening weekend prediction: $10.3 million
The MCU will undeniably be the captain this weekend at the box office as CaptainMarvel blasts into multiplexes. The pic comes off a banner 2017 for the studio that saw BlackPanther and Avengers: InfinityWar dominate the year. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
My forecast north of $150 million gives it the seventh largest opening of the franchise. I believe it will help tremendously that it’s seen as a bridge between InfinityWar and next month’s Avengers: Endgame.
No other studio bothered to open anything against the MCU juggernaut. That means two-time champ HowtoTrainYourDragon: TheHiddenWorld will dip to second position. TylerPerry’sAMadeaFamilyFuneral opened well, but it should experience a rather hefty decline as other Madea titles have. Holdovers Alita: BattleAngel and TheLegoMovie2: TheSecondPart might be close vying for fourth place.
And with that, my top 5 take on the Marvel-ous weekend:
Predicted Gross: $154.4 million
2. HowtoTrainYourDragon: TheHiddenWorld
Predicted Gross: $16.6 million
Predicted Gross: $11 million
4. Alita: BattleAngel
Predicted Gross: $4 million
Predicted Gross: $3.9 million
As mentioned, HowtoTrainYourDragon: TheHiddenWorld stayed atop the charts for a second time despite Madea. The Dreamworks Animation pic took in $30 million, a bit under my $32.2 million projection. It’s staring at the century mark with $97 million.
Tyler Perry has claimed AMadeaFamilyFuneral is the character’s swan song. If so, she went out on a high note with $27 million compared to my $22.8 million estimate. That’s the franchise’s third best starting haul.
Alita: BattleAngel was third with $7.2 million (I said $6.3 million) for $72 million overall.
TheLegoMovie2: TheSecondPart was fourth with $6.6 million. I was lower at $5.3 million. It’s built its earnings up to $91 million.
FightingwithMyFamily was fifth at $4.6 million. I incorrectly had it outside the top five. It’s made $14 million in two weeks.
Greta was the weekend’s non-Madea newbie and it debuted in eighth place with a ho-hum $4.4 million. I had it at $5.6 million.
CaptainMarvel pilots into theaters next weekend with the highest opening of the year thus far easily in its sights. The latest entry from the Marvel Cinematic Universe comes after a banner 2017 from the studio that saw BlackPanther and Avengers: InfinityWar both earn over $675 million domestically. Brie Larson stars as the title character alongside Samuel L. Jackson as a younger Nick Fury as the tale takes place in the mid 90s. Other costars include Jude Law, Annette Bening, Ben Mendelsohn, Djimon Hounsou, Lee Pace, Lashana Lace, Gemma Chan, and Clark Gregg as Agent Coulson. Anna Boden and Ryan Fleck, known for making small pics like HalfNelson and MississippiGrind, up their budget game here behind the camera.
The newest MCU saga serves as a bridge between InfinityWar and the upcoming Avengers: Endgame, as was hinted at during the end credits of the former. That alone should provide it a substantial opening. As mentioned, it should have zero trouble posting the year’s largest debut and should hold that designation until the Endgame arrival in late April. How much that specific number is lies within a wide range. On the low-end of projections, we could see a debut in the vicinity of the $117 million made by 2017’s Spider–Man: Homecoming. The high-end could approach the friendly neighborhood of $180 million.
If CaptainMarvel makes it to that level, we could be looking at an all-time record for the month of March. That mark is currently held by BeautyandtheBeast at $174 million. I’m not sure it manages to get there, but it’s dangerous to underestimate the MCU. I think a more likely scenario is the #3 biggest March debut – currently held by TheHungerGames, which made $152 million out of the gate. I’ll put it just over that.
CaptainMarvel opening weekend prediction: $154.4 million
As the Oscars aired last night, it seems appropriate as 2019’s Best Picture front-runner TylerPerry’sAMadeaFamilyFuneral opens this weekend and tries to dislodge HowtoTrainYourDragon: TheHiddenWorld from the top spot after its franchise best opening. We also have the horror drama Greta with Isabelle Huppert and Chloe Grace Moretz out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
Mr. Perry may have to settle for second place as I have the alleged Madea finale getting a low 20s start (the possibility of mid to high 20s is certainly feasible). Dragon exceeded expectations and may see a low 30s sophomore frame.
As for Greta, it’s being released on a surprisingly hefty 2000 screens. I still think it will struggle and settle for fourth after Alita: BattleAngel, with TheLegoMovie2: TheSecondPart rounding out the top five.
And here’s my projections for the weekend ahead:
1. HowtoTrainYourDragon: TheHiddenWorld
Predicted Gross: $32.2 million
Predicted Gross: $22.8 million
3. Alita: BattleAngel
Predicted Gross: $6.3 million
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million
5. TheLegoMovie2: TheSecondPart
Predicted Gross: $5.3 million
As mentioned, the Dreamworks Animation franchise finale Howto Train YourDragon: TheHiddenWorld rode out on a high note with $55 million, easily surpassing my $44.7 million prediction. In this young year, that’s the largest opening thus far (CaptainMarvel will change that in short order).
Alita: BattleAngel dropped to second with $12.3 million, in line with my $12.9 million forecast for a two-week tally of $61 million.
TheLegoMovie2: TheSecondPart was third with $9.6 million compared to my $11.2 million take. Overall earnings are $83 million.
The wrestling biopic FightingwithMyFamily expanded nationwide and was fourth with $7.8 million, not matching my $10.8 million projection.
Isn’tItRomantic rounded out the top five with $7.1 million (I said $6.1 million). It’s made out with $33 million.
Opening on a surprisingly large 2000 screens this weekend is Greta, a horror thriller from veteran Irish director Neil Jordan. The film is headlined by Elle star Isabelle Huppert and Chloe Grace Moretz with a supporting cast including Maika Monroe, Colm Feore, and Stephen Rea (who starred in Jordan’s 1992 Oscar contender TheCryingGame).
The pic screened last fall at the Toronto Film Festival to mostly positive notices. Its Rotten Tomatoes score stands at 67% currently. I will admit that I was a bit shocked when I saw its large theater count. This is normally the type of feature that opens in limited fashion and hopes to gain steam.
I’ll say that Greta has trouble landing the adult audience it’s catering to and struggles to reach mid single digits.
Greta opening weekend prediction: $5.6 million
For my TylerPerry’sAMadeaFamilyFuneral prediction, click here: