Category: Box Office Predictions/Results

October 16-18 Box Office Predictions

A quartet of newcomers step into the box office ring this weekend. Video game adaptation Street Fighter looks to lead the pack while survival tale Whalefall, acclaimed documentary You Can See Everything, and the latest adaptation of Jane Austen’s Sense and Sensibility jockey for position in the top five. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:

Street Fighter Box Office Prediction
Whalefall Box Office Prediction
You Can See Everything Box Office Prediction
Sense and Sensibility Box Office Prediction

Arriving 32 years after the Jean-Claude Van Damme version was a considerable bomb, Street Fighter should fare better with a decent if unspectacular mid 20s start. That should easily give it a first place finish.

Whalefall features Resident Evil lead Austin Abrams stuck in the belly of a sperm whale and I have it logging a so-so fourth place start in the high single digits.

You Can See Everything is the major question mark. It made a splash at the Telluride Film Festival and the covering of Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes before she entered prison should generate eyeballs. The challenge is that I’ve yet to see a screen count. My higher single digits estimate could put in anywhere from 2nd to 4th depending on the Other Mommy drop.

Jessica Chastain’s horror flick opened in line with expectations (more on that below) but poor reviews and a dreadful D+ Cinemascore grade could spell a mid to high 60s percentage decline in weekend #2.

Sense and Sensibility doesn’t seem to have significant buzz and my mid single digits take should have it rounding out the top six just behind Verity‘s third frame.

Here’s how I see it shaking out:

1. Street Fighter

Predicted Gross: $24.5 million

2. Other Mommy

Predicted Gross: $9.1 million

3. You Can See Everything

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million

4. Whalefall

Predicted Gross: $8.2 million

5. Verity

Predicted Gross: $5.9 million

6. Sense and Sensibility

Predicted Gross: $5.3 million

Box Office Results (October 9-11)

Audiences were hungry for horror despite a critical drubbing as Other Mommy brought in $27.8 million, on pace with my $27.2 million prediction. As mentioned, even with genre fans craving scares, this should fade quickly.

Verity dropped to second with $12 million, just under my $13.1 million call. The thriller with Anne Hathaway and Dakota Johnson eased 63% for a two-week total of $54 million.

Resident Evil was third in its fourth frame with $8.5 million compared to my $7.8 million projection. This video game adaptation grew to $138 million.

Heart of the Beast took fourth with $7.4 million (I said $6.6 million) as the Brad Pitt survival tale hit $50 million after three weeks.

Finally, Aaron Sorkin’s The Social Reckoning tanked in fifth with $5 million. Taking in just a quarter of what 2010 predecessor The Social Network achieved out of the gate, the tech drama couldn’t match my $7.4 million number.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

You Can See Everything Box Office Prediction

Ever since its surprise premiere at the Telluride Film Festival, Nathan Fielder and Primetime director Lance Oppenheim’s You Can See Everything has been picked up considerable buzz that could translate to impressive box office numbers (especially for its genre). The A24 release finds the filmmakers deeply involved in documenting the life of Theranos founder and convicted swindler Elizabeth Holmes as she awaits her prison stay and beyond.

Clocking in at nearly three hours, Everything is one of 2026’s most acclaimed titles at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and 97 on Metacritic. It is rolling out in limited fashion this Friday, October 16th. A theater count has yet to be published which makes a projection tricky.

Everything appears to be playing indie venues and select AMC locations. My local indie theater’s showtimes this coming weekend are filling up quickly while the AMC showings have better availability. With some pundits predicting it could be the first doc to receive a Best Picture nomination, the curiosity factor should be high.

The largest non-concert documentary opening belongs to 2004’s Fahrenheit 9/11 at nearly $24 million. I don’t believe this challenge that, but the second best is Chimpanzee with $10.6 million. In a best case scenario, Everything might achieve that figure or slightly more.

My forecast could fluctuate once I see a count. For now, I’ll put it a little under $10 million.

You Can See Everything opening weekend prediction: $8.9 million

For my Street Fighter prediction, click here:

Street Fighter Box Office Prediction

For my Whalefall prediction, click here:

Whalefall Box Office Prediction

For my Sense and Sensibility prediction, click here:

Sense and Sensibility Box Office Prediction

Sense and Sensibility Box Office Prediction

Georgia Oakley’s Sense and Sensibility is the latest update to Jane Austen’s 215-year-old novel and it arrives stateside on October 16th. The director’s follow-up to the acclaimed British debut Blue Jean, Daisy Edgar-Jones and Esmé Creed-Miles lead the cast with supporting turns from Caitriona Balfe, Frank Dillane, Herbert Nordrum, George MacKay, and Fiona Shaw.

The romantic drama is the first major retelling of the source material since Ang Lee’s rendering in 1995 with Emma Thompson and Kate Winslet. It was an awards hit with seven Oscar noms including Best Picture. The box office was strong with just over $40 million domestically and $135 million worldwide.

While reviews are respectful for Oakley’s take, they’re not as glowing as what preceded it three decades ago. Rotten Tomatoes is at 78% with 72 on Metacritic. This is not expected to be a significant Oscar player and that could have assisted with increased word-of-mouth.

I imagine the most dedicated Austen faithful will turn up and that could mean mid single digits.

Sense and Sensibility opening weekend prediction: $5.3 million

For my Street Fighter prediction, click here:

Street Fighter Box Office Prediction

For my Whalefall prediction, click here:

Whalefall Box Office Prediction

For my You Can See Everything prediction, click here:

You Can See Everything Box Office Prediction

Whalefall Box Office Prediction

Fresh off his role fighting zombies in the blockbuster video game adaptation Resident Evil, Austin Abrams deals with a different dangerous creature in Whalefall starting October 16th. The survival thriller features Abrams as a scuba diver trapped in the belly of a sperm whale. Based on the novel by Daniel Kraus, Brian Duffield directs with Josh Brolin, Elisabeth Shue, John Ortiz, Jane Levy, and Emily Rudd in the supporting cast.

Buzz seems encouraging for the whale tale and this could be a word-of-mouth sleeper. In a best case scenario, it could approach the $20 million that Heart of the Beast premiered with. I suspect the combo of Brad Pitt and a German Shepherd could be far more potent. I’ll say a high single digits to possibly low digits start is where this lands as it hopes for staying power in subsequent frames.

Whalefall opening weekend prediction: $8.2 million

For my Street Fighter prediction, click here:

Street Fighter Box Office Prediction

For my Sense and Sensibility prediction, click here:

Sense and Sensibility Box Office Prediction

For my You Can See Everything prediction, click here:

You Can See Everything Box Office Prediction

Street Fighter Box Office Prediction

Paramount looks for Street Fighter to kick off with impressive earnings beginning October 16th. Based on the video game series that started nearly 40 years ago, it arrives 32 years after the Jean-Claude Van Damme version was a box office flop. Kitao Sakurai, best known for making the 2021 Eric André hidden cam comedy Bad Trip, directs. The cast includes Noah Centineo, Andrew Koji, Callina Liang, Roman Reigns, David Dastmalchian, Cody Rhodes, the filmmaker’s buddy Eric André, Andrew Schulz, Vidyut Jammwal, Curtis “50 Cent” Jackson, and Jason Momoa.

I definitely think this will fare better than what greeted Mr. Van Damme in 1994. Originally slated for March, video game adaptations have become a financially potent genre lately with examples including the Super Mario and Sonic pics, A Minecraft Movie, and, most recently, Resident Evil. An aspirational comp might come from earlier this year via Mortal Kombat II and its $38.5 million debut. The ceiling is probably $30 million and I have Fighter behind in the mid 20s instead.

Street Fighter opening weekend prediction: $24.5 million

For my Whalefall prediction, click here:

Whalefall Box Office Prediction

For my Sense and Sensibility prediction, click here:

Sense and Sensibility Box Office Prediction

For my You Can See Everything prediction, click here:

You Can See Everything Box Office Prediction

October 9-11 Box Office Predictions

Horror looks to rule the charts with Jessica Chastain as the creepy Other Mommy while Aaron Sorkin’s The Social Reckoning also debuts. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the two newcomers here:

Other Mommy Box Office Prediction
The Social Reckoning Box Office Prediction

With an effective trailer and a likely hunger for scary material as we’re into the month of October, my mid 20s projection for Mommy easily gives it the victory.

The Social Reckoning may have to settle for anywhere between third and fifth place. A sort of sequel to 2010’s acclaimed The Social Network, this updated look at Facebook/Meta isn’t carrying the type of buzz that greeted its predecessor. I have this making only a third of what Network achieved over a decade and a half ago.

As for holdovers, Verity had a fantastic opening (more on that below). The C+ Cinemascore grade is a bit troubling and a 60% sophomore dip would put it in a distant second. With my soft outlook for Reckoning, I’ll say that Resident Evil narrowly edges it out for third with Heart of the Beast rounding out the top five.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Other Mommy

Predicted Gross: $27.2 million

2. Verity

Predicted Gross: $13.1 million

3. Resident Evil

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million

4. The Social Reckoning

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million

5. Heart of the Beast

Predicted Gross: $6.6 million

Box Office Results (October 2-4)

A couple weeks back, I couldn’t have imagined not discussing where Digger would place in the top five in its sophomore frame, but here we are.

We will get to Tom Cruise’s box office disaster shortly though we’ll start with positive results. Verity, based on the Colleen Hoover novel, opened at the highest end of expectations with $32 million. The thriller starring Anne Hathaway (in her fifth 2026 flick) and Dakota Johnson blew past my $20.4 million prediction. As mentioned, it should see a large decline this weekend but this is a fine result for Amazon MGM.

Resident Evil stayed in second place with $12.6 million, in range with my $12 million projection. The video game based horror tale has taken in $125 million after three weeks.

Heart of the Beast was third with $10.8 million, on pace with my $11.2 million call. The Brad Pitt/German Shepherd survival tale is up to $38 million in two weeks.

Digger was fourth and marked Tom Cruise’s lowest opening since 2007’s Lions for Lambs (in which he was a supporting player). With mixed reviews and a C+ Cinemascore, audiences and critics were divided and the result was only $8 million compared to my $10.3 million forecast. Warner Bros as we know it (after Paramount’s acquisition) goes out with a whimper as this will be a significant money loser for the studio.

Primetime rounded out the top five and I incorrectly had it on the outside looking in. Also with $8 million, the two-week tally is $34 million.

Finally, last week’s #1 Avengers: Endgame Encore fell a lot further than I figured in seventh with $4.4 million. That’s an 83% decline and I was far more generous at $10 million. Don’t feel bad for the MCU, however, as its overall gross since 2019 ballooned to $894 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

The Social Reckoning Box Office Prediction

Sixteen years after its predecessor became an Oscar player and one of the best regarded pictures of the 21st century, The Social Reckoning posts up in theaters on October 9th. A sequel of sorts to The Social Network, the main participant from that movie returning is writer/director Aaron Sorkin. He penned the screenplay for Network and takes over directorial duties from David Fincher. None of the original cast return with Jeremy Strong as Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg in place of Jesse Eisenberg. The legal thriller’s cast also includes Mikey Madison (in her first major role since her Oscar-winning turn in Anora), Jeremy Allen White, Wunmi Mosaku, Betty Gilpin, Billy Magnussen, and Bill Burr.

The buzz for Reckoning seems considerably lower than what greeted Network in 2010. Trailers have been met with a collective shrug. Unlike Network, awards talk isn’t really occurring. The review embargo is still up but early word-of-mouth equals the trailer reaction.

The Social Network kicked off with $22.4 million and I suspect the follow-up will be lucky to make half or even a third of that figure for starters.

The Social Reckoning opening weekend prediction: $7.6 million

For my Other Mommy prediction, click here:

Other Mommy Box Office Prediction

Other Mommy Box Office Prediction

Other Mommy looks to make lots of money for Universal when it debuts October 9th. Based on the 2024 novel by Josh Malerman (who also wrote the source material for the Netflix hit Bird Box), Jessica Chastain stars in the supernatural horror flick. The supporting cast includes Jay Duplass, Arabella Olivia Clark, Dichen Lachman, Arian Moayed, and Karen Allen. Rob Savage, maker of 2023’s ambivalently received The Boogeyman, directs.

She may be an Oscar winner, but Chastain is no stranger to the genre with Mama and It Chapter Two in her filmography. Scary movies have been hot in 2026 and a genuinely unsettling trailer should help Mommy score an easy #1 debut.

This should double the $12 million that greeted Savage’s Boogeyman and it could have room to spare. I’m projecting it’ll premiere with a mid to high 20s start.

Other Mommy opening weekend prediction: $27.2 million

For my The Social Reckoning prediction, click here:

The Social Reckoning Box Office Prediction

October 2-4 Box Office Predictions

For the first time in nearly a decade, Tom Cruise headlines a picture that isn’t an action sequel via Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu’s satire Digger. Cruise and company will need to fend off a challenge from Verity, a psychological thriller based on Colleen Hoover’s novel starring the inescapable Anne Hathaway and Dakota Johnson. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Digger Box Office Prediction
Verity Box Office Prediction

Truth be told, I think Ms. Hathaway easily holds the advantage. Verity should be able to bring in a decent (especially female) crowd familiar with the source material. Mid teens could be the floor though I have this in the mid 20s for a first place showing.

I would’ve pegged Digger for a similar start a couple of weeks back. However, reviews are subpar and this is not your typical Cruise content that audiences have grown accustomed to recently. My projection has steadily declined and my barely double digits forecast could put it anywhere from second place to fifth. That would be a disastrous kickoff for the satire with a $125 million budget.

Holdovers Avengers Endgame: Encore, Resident Evil, and Heart of the Beast may all be in the same range. I have #s 2-5 separated by a mere $2 million and here’s how I have it shaking out:

1. Verity

Predicted Gross: $20.4 million

2. Resident Evil

Predicted Gross: $12 million

3. Heart of the Beast

Predicted Gross: $11.2 million

4. Digger

Predicted Gross: $10.3 million

5. Avengers Endgame: Encore

Predicted Gross: $10 million

Box Office Results (September 25-27)

Not long after Spider-Man relinquished the top spot, the MCU returned to #1 with the re-release (with some extra footage) of 2019’s Avengers: Endgame Encore. Meant to drum up anticipation for December’s Avengers: Doomsday, the epic comic book experience accomplished its mission and added $26.1 million to its coffers. That’s beyond my $22.6 million take as its domestic total ballooned to $884 million.

Resident Evil, after a terrific debut, slid to second with an understandable 62% dip to $23 million. I was on target with a $24 million prediction as the franchise reboot passed the century mark after ten days with $103 million.

Three newcomers filled with the rest of the top five with Brad Pitt’s Heart of the Beast in third. With a German Shepherd as his costar, the survival drama earned $20 million, surpassing my $16.8 million call. That gross would be more notable if not for its $80M+ budget, but it’s still at the high end of its anticipated range.

Primetime starring Robert Pattinson rode a wave of favorable buzz to $19.1 million in fourth compared to my $14.5 million prediction. Lots of audience members chose to have a seat for the A24 title which has a lowly $15 million price tag.

The news was not as positive for DreamWorks Animation’s Forgotten Island. Despite fresh critical reaction, the family friendly tale was fifth with $13 million (I went higher at $17.2 million). It’ll hope for families to catch up in subsequent weekends though it’s undoubtedly a flat result.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Digger Box Office Prediction

For the better part of the past decade, Tom Cruise has been busy reprising iconic roles from the 80s and 90s in three Mission: Impossible pics and the mega-grossing Top Gun: Maverick. On October 2nd, he’s out of action star and stunt making mode and headlining the satire Digger. Caked in makeup and playing an eccentric billionaire, Alejandro G. Iñárritu (double Oscar winner for Birdman and The Revenant) directs. The supporting cast includes Riz Ahmed, John Goodman, Sandra Hüller, Michael Stuhlbarg, and Jesse Plemons.

The review embargo lifts next week, but early social media chatter indicates this will draw wildly diverse reactions. Cruise, as we’ve grown accustomed to, is promoting this change of pace black comedy with gusto. However, the mixed word-of-mouth could limit its potential

UPDATE (09/29): The review embargo has lifted and it’s NOT good news for Cruise and company. My initial projection in the high teens has now plummeted to low double digits.

With a reported $125 million price tag, Digger needs impressive numbers domestically and overseas. I suspect the stateside earnings may be far from groundbreaking. While some estimates have this topping $20 million, I’m projecting a premiere below Cruise’s last non-sequel. That was back in 2017 when American Made kicked off with just under $17 million. Digger may fare worse and my barely double digits estimate would classify it as a notable bomb considering the reported $125 million price tag.

Digger opening weekend prediction: $10.3 million

For my Verity prediction, click here:

Verity Box Office Prediction