For my first Oscar analysis in the 8 major categories for the month of August, the ten BP contenders remain the same. However, Everything Everywhere All at Once moves to #2 with Babylon slipping a spot to third. I truly do believe there’s a path for Once to take the top prize next year depending on how the next five months of releases play out.
At the end of July, I vaulted Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelmans to #1 in BP. Today I’m putting the filmmaker in first with Babylon‘s Damien Chazelle now in second.
While my lead actress and actor picks remain unaltered, there is movement in both supporting derbies. In Supporting Actress, Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once) and Griselda Sicillani (Bardo) are in my projected quintet with Hong Chau (The Whale) and Zoe Kazan (She Said) falling out. In Supporting Actor, I’m switching Empire of Light costars with Michael Ward making the cut over Colin Firth.
Finally, I’ve taken Ron Howard’s Thirteen Lives out of contention in all categories where I previously had it listed as a possibility. If Amazon Prime mounts a campaign later this year, it could find itself back in the mix. I wouldn’t count on it despite its solid reviews.
Expect another update in the next week or two! You can peruse all the movement below:
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Babylon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Bardo (PR: 4) (E)
5. Women Talking (PR: 5) (E)
6. The Son (PR: 6) (E)
7. Empire of Light (PR: 7) (E)
8. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Whale (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. White Noise (PR: 12) (+1)
12. She Said (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Tar (PR: 13) (E)
14. Elvis (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 14) (-1)
16. Decision to Leave (PR: 16) (E)
17. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 18) (+1)
18. Bones and All (PR: 20) (+2)
19. Till (PR: 19) (E)
20. Broker (PR: 17) (-3)
21. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 22) (+1)
22. The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 23) (+1)
23. The Menu (PR: Not Ranked)
24. The Woman King (PR: 24) (E)
25. Amsterdam (PR: 21) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Thirteen Lives
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Bardo (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Florian Zeller, The Son (PR: 8) (E)
9. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 11) (+1)
11. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 9 (-2)
12. Noah Baumbach, White Noise (PR: 12) (E)
13. Todd Field, Tar (PR: 13) (E)
14. Maria Schrader, She Said (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Bax Luhrmann, Elvis (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Hirokazu Kore-eda, Broker
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 9) (E)
10. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 10) (E)
11. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Jessica Chastain, The Good Nurse (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Frances McDormand, Women Talking (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Florence Pugh, The Wonder (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Florence Pugh, Don’t Worry Darling
Emma Corrin, Lady Chatterley’s Lover
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 2) (E)
3. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 1) (E)
4. Damien Gimenez Cacho, Bardo (PR: 4) (E)
5. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Song Kang-ho, Broker (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 10) (E)
11. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Timothee Chalamet, Bones and All (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Christian Bale, The Pale Blue Eye (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Harry Styles, My Policeman (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Viggo Mortensen, Thirteen Lives
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Vanessa Kirby, The Son (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Griselda Sicillani, Bardo (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Laura Dern, The Son (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Zoe Kazan, She Said (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Sadie Sink, The Whale (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Jean Smart, Babylon (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Nina Hoss, Tar (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Dakota Johnson, Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Samantha Morton, She Said (PR: +2)
14. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Patricia Clarkson, She Said
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Michael Ward, Empire of Light (PR: 10) (+6)
5. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Colin Firth, Empire of Light (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Zen McGrath, The Son (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Seth Rogen, The Fabelmans (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Ralph Fiennes, The Menu (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 15) (+3)
13. Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Don Cheadle, White Noise (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Russell Crowe, The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 13) (-2)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Empire of Light (PR: 6) (E)
7. Decision to Leave (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Bardo (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Tar (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Menu (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Broker (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: 15) (+3)
13. Bros (PR: 13) (E)
14. Amsterdam (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Don’t Worry Darling (PR: 14) (-1)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Son (PR: 1) (E)
2. Women Talking (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Whale (PR: 3) (E)
4. White Noise (PR: 4) (E)
5. She Said (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bones and All (PR: 6) (E)
7. Till (PR: 7) (E)
8. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Living (PR: 14) (+3)
12. The Lost King (PR: Not Ranked)
13. The Woman King (PR: 13) (E)
14. Blonde (PR: 15) (+1)
15. The Good Nurse (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Thirteen Lives
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 