Oscar Predictions: My Policeman

Harry Styles, Emma Corrin, and David Dawson headline the 1950s set romantic drama My Policeman, which has premiered at the Toronto Film Festival prior to its November 4th debut on Amazon Prime. An October 21st awards qualifying run is also slated. Michael Grandage directs the adaptation of the 2012 novel by Bethan Roberts. Costars include Linus Roache, Gina McKee, and Rupert Everett as the older versions of the aforementioned stars.

The tale of forbidden love is getting most of its ink due to Styles playing a homosexual policeman. Yet early reviews are quite mixed on the effectiveness of his performance (Corrin is being called best in show). The Rotten Tomatoes meter for the film itself is a mere 47%.

Unless it gets a random Costume Design or Production Design nod (which I doubt), we can likely discount My Policeman to get on the blotter of awards voters. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Lady Chatterley’s Lover

In 1928, D.H. Lawrence novel Lady Chatterley’s Lover was banned in the United States and elsewhere due its explicit sexual nature and profanity. Nearly a century later, the latest celluloid version of his work lands in theaters this November before a December Netflix rollout. It played at Telluride over the weekend. This is Laure de Clermont-Tonnerre’s second directorial effort following 2019’s critically appreciated The Mustang. Emma Corrin and Jack O’Connell are the lead lovers with Matthew Duckett and Joely Richardson in the supporting cast.

Early reviews have this at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes with particular praise heaped on Corrin/O’Connell’s chemistry (expect to see a lot of them according to the buzz). Corrin is a Golden Globe winner as Princess Di on The Crown and she has a busy autumn as she costars alongside Harry Styles in My Policeman (soon screening in Toronto). I don’t think this is a BP contender, but I’ll be curious to see if Netflix attempts an Actress campaign for their Crown royalty. Perhaps that notion could pick up steam if the streamer feels she’s the best option, but I wouldn’t count on it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

2022 Oscar Predictions: August 26th Edition

My final Oscar predictions for the month of August could rightfully be called the calm before the storm. That’s because Venice, Telluride, and Toronto are about to blow in screenings for several legitimate contenders. And there’s no doubt it will change the forecasts below.

My plan is to do the next update on Labor Day (ten days from now). By that point, there should be reviews and awards buzz out for Venice pics like White Noise, Tar, Bardo, Bones and All, The Banshees of Inisherin, and Don’t Worry Darling, among others. There’s also anything that plays Telluride over the holiday weekend (expect that to potentially include The Son and Women Talking). My next update should be about a week later.

Those next updates will incorporate the lengthy list of Toronto screenings and late Venice leftovers. That list includes Blonde, The Fabelmans, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, The Greatest Beer Run Ever, Empire of Light, The Good Nurse, The Menu, The Lost King, The Woman King, Bros, Chevalier, and more. In other words… buckle up because the Oscar picture is going to be in much sharper focus over the next three weeks!

My Best Picture ten remains the same, but I’ve made a change in Director with Ruben Ostlund (Triangle of Sadness) in over Sarah Polley for Women Talking. 

In Best Actress, there’s a new #1 as I’ve vaulted Cate Blanchett (Tar) to the top spot over Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once). Yeoh spent only a week in first after she replaced Babylon‘s Margot Robbie, who’s now in third position. We will know in a matter of days whether Blanchett’s promotion is warranted courtesy of Venice.

I’ve switched Micheal Ward’s performance in Empire of Light from supporting to lead. Toronto’s fest should shed light on whether that’s the right call. Due to this, Bill Nighy (Living) falls out of my actor quintet. In Supporting Actor, Babylon‘s Brad Pitt is back in the mix since I’ve taken Ward out. In Original Screenplay, I’m switching in Bardo with The Banshees of Inisherin out.

You can read all the movement below and keep an eye out for lots of individualized prediction posts for the pictures playing in Italy, Colorado, and Canada in the coming weeks!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Fabelmans (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)

2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Bardo (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Son (PR: 6) (+1)

6. Women Talking (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Empire of Light (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Whale (PR: 8) (E)

9. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. Tar (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Decision to Leave (PR: 14) (+2)

13. White Noise (PR: 12) (-1)

14. She Said (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Elvis (PR: 15) (E)

16. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 16) (E)

17. Broker (PR: 20) (+3)

18. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 17) (-1)

19. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 21) (+2)

20. Till (PR: 18) (-2)

21. The Menu (PR: 22) (+1)

22. Bones and All (PR: 19) (-3)

23. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)

24. The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 25) (+1)

25. Living (PR: 24) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Woman King 

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)

2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)

4. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Bardo (PR: 4) (E)

5. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light (PR: 7) (E)

8. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 8) (E)

9. Florian Zeller, The Son (PR: 9) (E)

10. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (PR: 10) (E)

11. Todd Field, Tar (PR: 13) (+2)

12. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Noah Baumbach, White Noise (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Baz Luhrmann, Elvis (PR: 14) (E)

15. Maria Schrader, She Said (PR: 15) (E)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 4) (E)

5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 7) (E)

8. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 10) (E)

11. Frances McDormand, Women Talking (PR: 11) (E)

12. Tang Wei, Decision to Leave (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Florence Pugh, Don’t Worry Darling (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Florence Pugh, The Wonder (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Jessica Chastain, The Good Nurse (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Helen Mirren, Golda (moved to 2023)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 1) (E)

2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 2) (E)

3. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 3) (E)

4. Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo (PR: 4) (E)

5. Micheal Ward, Empire of Light (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting

Other Possibilities:

6. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Song Kang-ho, Broker (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 8) (E)

9. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Kelvin Harrison, Jr., Chevalier (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Park Hae-il, Decision to Leave (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Christian Bale, The Pale Blue Eye

Timothee Chalamet, Bones and All

Harry Styles, My Policeman 

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)

2. Vanessa Kirby, The Son (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)

4. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)

5. Griselda Sicillani, Bardo (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Laura Dern, The Son (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Jean Smart, Babylon (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Sadie Sink, The Whale (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Samantha Morton, She Said (PR: 11) (E)

12. Zoe Kazan, She Said (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Dakota Johnson, Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: 13) (E)

14. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Nina Hoss, Tar (PR: 14) (-1)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)

3. Zen McGrath, The Son (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Colin Firth, Empire of Light (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 14) (+5)

10. Toby Jones, Empire of Light (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Anthony Hopkins, The Son (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Seth Rogen, The Fabelmans (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Ralph Fiennes, The Menu (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Russell Crowe, The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Micheal Ward, Empire of Light (moved to Best Actor)

Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time 

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

    1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)

3. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Babylon (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Bardo (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities: 

6. Empire of Light (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Tar (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Decision to Leave (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Menu (PR: 10) (E)

11. Broker (PR: 11) (E)

12. Bros (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Don’t Worry Darling (PR: 14) (E)

15. Chevalier (PR: 15) (E)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Son (PR: 1) (E)

2. Women Talking (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Whale (PR: 3) (E)

4. She Said (PR: 5) (+1)

5. White Noise (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Living (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)

8. Bones and All (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Till (PR: 9) (-1)

11. The Lost King (PR: 14) (+3)

12. The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 12) (E)

13. Elvis (PR: 15) (+2)

14. The Good Nurse (PR: Not Ranked)

15. The Woman King (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Blonde 

2022 Oscar Predictions: August 19th Edition

With the Venice Film Festival less than two weeks away and Toronto and Telluride on its heels, the Oscar races are poised to become clearer quite soon. We are mostly in speculation mode at this juncture, but there’s change afoot in the Actor and Supporting Actor with this latest update.

I have vaulted Bill Nighy (Living) into the top 5 for Best Actor and that removes Adam Driver in White Noise. I’ve struggled with Brad Pitt’s placement in Supporting Actor for Babylon. At this point, it’s not certain whether he’ll be campaigned for in lead or supporting. Therefore I have Pitt on the outside looking in for Supporting Actor and that allows The Son‘s Zen McGrath to enter the projected quintet.

While no changes were made in the Picture, Director, the Actress derbies, or screenplay – there’s a new #1 for Best Actress. Since I started my estimates back in April, I’ve had Margot Robbie (Babylon) perched atop the charts. I’m now switching that to Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All at Once. 

Finally, I’ve dropped David O. Russell’s Amsterdam from contention in all races. The studio’s decision to move it up a month from November to October is something I look at as a bad sign. That’s in addition to it getting no festival screenings, a trailer that didn’t impress, and lingering personal issues and bad press for Mr. Russell.

A final note: at this pre-festival juncture in mid-August of 2021, my predictions yielded seven of the eventual 10 BP contenders.

You can read all the movement below and I’ll likely have one more update prior to August 30th before the festival season is upon us!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Fabelmans (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)

2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Bardo (PR: 4) (E)

5. Women Talking (PR: 5) (E)

6. The Son (PR: 6) (E)

7. Empire of Light (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Whale (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. She Said (PR: 12) (+1)

12. White Noise (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Tar (PR: 13) (E)

14. Decision to Leave (PR: 16) (+2)

15. Elvis (PR: 14) (-1)

16. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 15) (-1)

17. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 17) (E)

18. Till (PR: 19) (+1)

19. Bones and All (PR: 18) (-1)

20. Broker (PR: 20) (E)

21. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 21) (E)

22. The Menu (PR: 23) (+1)

23. The Woman King (PR: 24) (+1)

24. Living (PR: Not Ranked)

25. The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 22) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Amsterdam

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)

2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)

4. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Bardo (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities: 

6. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 6) (E)

7. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light (PR: 7) (E)

8. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Florian Zeller, The Son (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (PR: 9) (-1)

11. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 11) (E)

12. Noah Baumbach, White Noise (PR: 12) (E)

13. Todd Field, Tar (PR: 13) (E)

14. Baz Luhrmann, Elvis (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Maris Schrader, She Said (PR: 14) (-1)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 3) (E)

4. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 4) (E)

5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 7) (E)

8. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 9) (E)

10. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 10) (E)

11. Frances McDormand, Women Talking (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Florence Pugh, The Wonder (PR: 15) (+3)

13. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Tang Wei, Decision to Leave (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Jessica Chastain, The Good Nurse (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway 

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 1) (E)

2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 2) (E)

3. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 3) (E)

4. Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo (PR: 4) (E)

5. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 8) (E)

9. Song Kang-ho, Broker (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 10) (E)

11. Christian Bale, The Pale Blue Eye (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Timothee Chalamet, Bones and All (PR: 12) (E)

13. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Kelvin Harrison, Jr., Chevalier (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Harry Styles, My Policeman (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Paul Mescal, Aftersun 

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)

2. Vanessa Kirby, The Son (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)

4. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)

5. Griselda Sicillani, Bardo (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 6) (E)

7. Laura Dern, The Son (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sadie Sink, The Whale (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jean Smart, Babylon (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Zoe Kazan, She Said (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Samantha Morton, She Said (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Dakota Johnson, Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Nina Hoss, Tar (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)

3. Michael Ward, Empire of Light (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Zen McGrath, The Son (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Colin Firth, Empire of Light (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Seth Rogen, The Fabelmans (PR: 10) (E)

11. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Ralph Fiennes, The Menu (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time (PR: 13) (E)

14. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Russell Crowe, The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Don Cheadle, White Noise

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)

3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Empire of Light (PR: 6) (E)

7. Bardo (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tar (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Menu (PR: 10) (E)

11. Broker (PR: 11) (E)

12. Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: 12) (E)

13. Bros (PR: 13) (E)

14. Don’t Worry Darling (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Chevalier (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Amsterdam

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Son (PR: 1) (E)

2. Women Talking (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Whale (PR: 3) (E)

4. White Noise (PR: 4) (E)

5. She Said (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bones and All (PR: 6) (E)

7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Living (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Till (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 8) (-2)

11. The Woman King (PR: 13) (+2)

12. The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Blonde (PR: 14) (+1)

14. The Lost King (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Elvis (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Good Nurse 

2022 Oscar Predictions: August 10th Edition

For my first Oscar analysis in the 8 major categories for the month of August, the ten BP contenders remain the same. However, Everything Everywhere All at Once moves to #2 with Babylon slipping a spot to third. I truly do believe there’s a path for Once to take the top prize next year depending on how the next five months of releases play out.

At the end of July, I vaulted Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelmans to #1 in BP. Today I’m putting the filmmaker in first with Babylon‘s Damien Chazelle now in second.

While my lead actress and actor picks remain unaltered, there is movement in both supporting derbies. In Supporting Actress, Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once) and Griselda Sicillani (Bardo) are in my projected quintet with Hong Chau (The Whale) and Zoe Kazan (She Said) falling out. In Supporting Actor, I’m switching Empire of Light costars with Michael Ward making the cut over Colin Firth.

Finally, I’ve taken Ron Howard’s Thirteen Lives out of contention in all categories where I previously had it listed as a possibility. If Amazon Prime mounts a campaign later this year, it could find itself back in the mix. I wouldn’t count on it despite its solid reviews.

Expect another update in the next week or two! You can peruse all the movement below:

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Fabelmans (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)

2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Babylon (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Bardo (PR: 4) (E)

5. Women Talking (PR: 5) (E)

6. The Son (PR: 6) (E)

7. Empire of Light (PR: 7) (E)

8. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Whale (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. White Noise (PR: 12) (+1)

12. She Said (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Tar (PR: 13) (E)

14. Elvis (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 14) (-1)

16. Decision to Leave (PR: 16) (E)

17. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 18) (+1)

18. Bones and All (PR: 20) (+2)

19. Till (PR: 19) (E)

20. Broker (PR: 17) (-3)

21. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 22) (+1)

22. The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 23) (+1)

23. The Menu (PR: Not Ranked)

24. The Woman King (PR: 24) (E)

25. Amsterdam (PR: 21) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Thirteen Lives 

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Bardo (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Florian Zeller, The Son (PR: 8) (E)

9. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 11) (+1)

11. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 9 (-2)

12. Noah Baumbach, White Noise (PR: 12) (E)

13. Todd Field, Tar (PR: 13) (E)

14. Maria Schrader, She Said (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Bax Luhrmann, Elvis (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Hirokazu Kore-eda, Broker

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities: 

6. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 9) (E)

10. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 10) (E)

11. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Jessica Chastain, The Good Nurse (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Frances McDormand, Women Talking (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Florence Pugh, The Wonder (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Florence Pugh, Don’t Worry Darling

Emma Corrin, Lady Chatterley’s Lover 

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 1) (E)

2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 2) (E)

3. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 1) (E)

4. Damien Gimenez Cacho, Bardo (PR: 4) (E)

5. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Song Kang-ho, Broker (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 10) (E)

11. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Timothee Chalamet, Bones and All (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Christian Bale, The Pale Blue Eye (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Harry Styles, My Policeman (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Viggo Mortensen, Thirteen Lives

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)

2. Vanessa Kirby, The Son (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)

4. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Griselda Sicillani, Bardo (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Laura Dern, The Son (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Zoe Kazan, She Said (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Sadie Sink, The Whale (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Jean Smart, Babylon (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Nina Hoss, Tar (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Dakota Johnson, Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Samantha Morton, She Said (PR: +2)

14. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Patricia Clarkson, She Said 

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)

3. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Michael Ward, Empire of Light (PR: 10) (+6)

5. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Colin Firth, Empire of Light (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Zen McGrath, The Son (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (E)

9. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Seth Rogen, The Fabelmans (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Ralph Fiennes, The Menu (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 15) (+3)

13. Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Don Cheadle, White Noise (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Russell Crowe, The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 13) (-2)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)

3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Empire of Light (PR: 6) (E)

7. Decision to Leave (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Bardo (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tar (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Menu (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Broker (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: 15) (+3)

13. Bros (PR: 13) (E)

14. Amsterdam (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Don’t Worry Darling (PR: 14) (-1)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Son (PR: 1) (E)

2. Women Talking (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Whale (PR: 3) (E)

4. White Noise (PR: 4) (E)

5. She Said (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bones and All (PR: 6) (E)

7. Till (PR: 7) (E)

8. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Living (PR: 14) (+3)

12. The Lost King (PR: Not Ranked)

13. The Woman King (PR: 13) (E)

14. Blonde (PR: 15) (+1)

15. The Good Nurse (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Thirteen Lives