Tag: Box Office Results

Box Office Predictions: October 7-9

The first full weekend of the October box office brings us a trio of newcomers: big-screen adaptation of last year’s bestselling thriller The Girl on the Train, Nate Parker’s slavery drama The Birth of a Nation, and teen comedy Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/09/28/the-girl-on-the-train-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/09/28/the-birth-of-a-nation-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/09/28/middle-school-the-worst-years-of-my-life-box-office-prediction/

While my prediction for Train doesn’t get it near Gone Girl (the blockbuster pic released two years ago on the same weekend that it’s compared to the most), it shouldn’t have much trouble locking down the #1 position.

Birth has received plenty of publicity – first for its rave screenings at festivals and then regarding past legal issues for its director, writer, and star. I have this reaching just over double digits. As for Middle School, it could be stuck in a battle for the five spot with the third weekends of Magnificent Seven and Storks. That said, I’ll predict Storks has a small drop-off and leaps over both of them.

As for other holdovers, I expect current champ Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children to dip a bit further in its sophomore frame than Deepwater Horizon. Both should move down a spot to second and third.

Here’s how the blog’s readers feel about my estimates for the newbies:

The Girl on the Train – 48% Just About Right, 37% Too Low, 15% Too High

The Birth of a Nation – 42% Too Low, 35% Just About Right, 23% Too High

Middle School – 58% Too Low, 25% Too High, 17% Just About Right

And with that, a top 7 predictions for the weekend ahead:

1. The Girl on the Train

Predicted Gross: $28.2 million

2. Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children

Predicted Gross: $14.3 million (representing a drop of 50%)

3. Deepwater Horizon

Predicted Gross: $11.9 million (representing a drop of 41%)

4. The Birth of a Nation

Predicted Gross: $10.5 million

5. Storks

Predicted Gross: $9.3 million (representing a drop of 30%)

6. Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million

7. The Magnificent Seven

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (how about that?? – representing a drop of 51%)

Box Office Results (September 30-October 2)

Tim Burton nabbed his seventh #1 opener of his filmography as Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children took in $28.8 million, schooling my $19.6M forecast. This is a pretty decent debut, though it’s unlikely to join the $100M club as six of the director’s other features have.

Deepwater Horizon premiered in second and I incorrectly had it making more than Peregrine and those strange kiddos. The big-budget disaster pic starring Mark Wahlberg had a muted start (especially considering its price tag) at $20.2 million, below my $24.7M estimate. Its best hope is for meager declines in coming weekends.

The Magnificent Seven was third, dipping a bit farther than anticipated in weekend 2 with $15.6 million. I predicted $18.2M. The Denzel Washington/Chris Pratt Western has made $61 million thus far.

Storks was fourth in its sophomore frame with $13.4 million (I was right there with a $13.2M estimate). The animated pic has grossed $38 million in ten days.

Sully was fifth with $8.2 million (I said $9.1M) as it entered nine digit territory with $105 million to date.

Lackluster newcomers filled the six and seven positions. The oft-delayed Masterminds earned $6.5 million, on the money with my $6.3M prediction. Disney’s Queen of Katwe failed to break through with audiences with just $2.4 million (less than half of my generous $5M projection).

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

 

Box Office Predictions: September 30-October 2

Four new titles roll out in wide release this weekend at the box office and they are: Mark Wahlberg’s true-life disaster pic Deepwater Horizon, Tim Burton’s YA fantasy Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children, oft delayed Zach Galifianakis/Kristin Wiig comedy Masterminds, and Disney’s Ugandan chess prodigy tale Queen of Katwe. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/09/21/deepwater-horizon-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/09/21/miss-peregrines-home-for-peculiar-children-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/09/21/masterminds-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/09/23/queen-of-katwe-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, Deepwater Horizon should top Peregrine for the top spot. Both have the chance to debut higher than my predictions, but the trend over the last couple of weeks has been titles under performing and not over performing. If Magnificent Seven loses close to half its opening weekend audience, it should be third with Storks at the four spot (it should experience the smallest decline of holdovers).

My estimates for Masterminds and Queen of Katwe put them in the sixth and seventh positions with Sully holding on for another week in the top five.

Here’s how the blog readers feel about my projections for the newcomers:

Deepwater Horizon – 45% Too Low, 38% Just About Right, 17% Too High

Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children – 69% Too Low, 16% Just About Right, 15% Too High

Masterminds – 54% Just About Right, 46% Too Low, 0% Too High

Queen of Katwe – 50% Just About Right, 38% Too Low, 12% Too High

And with that, a top 7 predictions for this weekend:

1. Deepwater Horizon

Predicted Gross: $24.7 million

2. Miss Peregrine’s Home for the Peculiar Children

Predicted Gross: $19.6 million

3. The Magnificent Seven

Predicted Gross: $18.2 million (representing a drop of 47%)

4. Storks

Predicted Gross: $13.2 million (representing a drop of 37%)

5. Sully

Predicted Gross: $9.1 million (representing a drop of 33%)

6. Masterminds

Predicted Gross: $6.3 million

7. Queen of Katwe

Predicted Gross: $5 million

Box Office Results (September 23-25)

As expected, The Magnificent Seven remake with Denzel Washington and Chris Pratt easily topped the charts, though it did come in towards the bottom end of most expectations. The Western took in $34.7 million and I went considerably higher with $47.1M. Still, the opening is in line with Washington’s The Equalizer from two years ago.

After the animated talking animal mega-hits that were Zootopia, Finding Dory, and The Secret Life of Pets – perhaps family audiences had their fill as Storks posted a debut on the lowest end of expectations. Despite positive reviews, the Warner Bros release made $21.3 million for second (below my $27.9M projection). Its best hope is for smallish declines in future weekends.

Sully dropped to third after two weeks on top with $13.5 million (under my $14.9M forecast) for a total of $92M.

Last weekend’s newcomers all posted lackluster debuts and they all experienced unimpressive second weekends as well. Bridget Jones’s Baby was fourth with $4.6 million (I said $5.1M) for a $16M total. Snowden was fifth with $4 million (I said $4.3M) for a $15M tally. Blair Witch dropped to sixth with $4 million as well (I predicted $3.4M) for a $16M overall gross.

And that’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: September 23-25

This past weekend, all newcomers failed to connect with audiences, but the fourth weekend of September has two openings where their prospects look more solid. They are the Denzel Washington/Chris Pratt Western remake The Magnificent Seven and Warner Bros animated Storks. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each right here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/09/14/the-magnificent-seven-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/09/14/storks-box-office-prediction/

I have Seven slated for the second largest September debut of all time, just behind last year’s Hotel Transylvania 2. As for Storks, I’m predicting a solid second place start.

Sully should fall to third after two weeks on top. As for the aforementioned newbies from last weekend, Bridget Jones’s Baby seems likely to have the smallest decline in its sophomore frame over Blair Witch and Snowden. In fact, while Blair Witch had the highest opening of the fresh titles (which isn’t saying much), I have it primed for a massive drop due to its putrid D+ Cinemascore average.

As far as where the readers think I am with predictions on our two newcomers:

The Magnificent Seven: 36% Too High, 35% Just About Right, 29% Too Low – quite the even split!

Storks: 46% Too Low, 36% Just About Right, 18% Too High

In last weekend’s poll, 74% incorrectly (including I) guessed that Blair Witch would be #1 while 26% correctly said Sully. 

And with that, let’s do a top six for this weekend:

1. The Magnificent Seven

Predicted Gross: $47.1 million

2. Storks

Predicted Gross: $27.9 million

3. Sully

Predicted Gross: $14.9 million (representing a drop of 31%)

4. Bridget Jones’s Baby

Predicted Gross: $5.1 million (representing a drop of 40%)

5. Snowden

Predicted Gross: $4.3 million (representing a drop of 47%)

6. Blair Witch

Predicted Gross: $3.4 million (representing a drop of 65%)

Box Office Results (September 16-18)

Sully once again landed (the pun is old, I know) safely in first place for the second weekend in a row with $21.6 million – just shy of my $23.3M forecast. The Tom Hanks hit has earned $70M thus far.

The curse of the Blair Witch applied to its dismal box office numbers as the sequel to the 1999 smash hit made just $9.5 million. I originally predicted $27.4 million before revising it down to $22.4M. I should have kept going down further and further. In a year that’s been mighty good for horror, the Witch debut gave us a rare dud. However, keeping things in perspective, it did only cost a measly $5 million to make, so it nearly doubled its budget in three days.

In more underwhelming sequel news – Renee Zellweger’s return to the big screen in her signature role was met with a shrug as Bridget Jones’s Baby earned $8.5 million, under my $12.3M estimate. The third entry in the franchise (and first in 12 years) posted its lowest debut in third, just under the $8.6M of 2004’s Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason. 

Oliver Stone’s Snowden was fourth with $8 million, a bit ahead of my $6.8M prediction. This is just an OK showing as mixed reviews and perhaps a distaste for political drama on the big screen contributed to its ambivalent roll out.

Don’t Breathe stayed in the top five with $5.6 million ($75M total). I incorrectly didn’t include it as its drop-off was smaller than I anticipated.

When the Bough Breaks was sixth in weekend #2 with $5.4 million (I said $5.6M). It’s made $22M.

Last and least – the Christian concert doc Hillsong – Let Hope Rise tanked with only $1.3 million – less than half of my $3M projection for an unlucky 13th place showing.

And that will do it for now, friends! Until next time…

 

Box Office Predictions: September 16-18

The third weekend of September brings us four new films (just as last weekend did) and they are: horror sequel Blair Witch, rom com three-quel Bridget Jones’s Baby, Oliver Stone’s political thriller Snowden, and faith-based concert documentary Hillsong – Let Hope Rise. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/09/07/blair-witch-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/09/07/bridget-joness-baby-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/09/07/snowden-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/09/12/hillsong-let-hope-rise-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, Bridget Jones’s Baby looks like it’ll easily place third for the weekend – unless Snowden does considerably better than my estimate. However, I have Snowden pretty far behind in fourth.

Hillsong is unpredictable (it doesn’t help that I don’t have a screen count). I have it in eighth place at $3 million.

The battle for #1 could be one to watch. My estimate for Blair Witch puts it there, but I expect Sully to experience a rather smallish decline. If Witch comes in below my prognosis, the Clint Eastwood/Tom Hanks could land in first for the second frame.

As for current #2 When the Bough Breaks, I look for it to place fifth with a hefty decline.

Here’s how the blog readers feel about my newcomer predictions:

Blair Witch: 36% Too High, 33% Just About Right, 31% Too Low

Bridget Jones’s Baby: 51% Too Low, 32% Just About Right, 17% Too High

Snowden: 71% Too Low, 23% Just About Right, 6% Too High

**I made my Hillsong prediction just this evening, so no real data on that one yet.

And with that, a top 5 predictions for the weekend:

1. Blair Witch

Predicted Gross: $27.4 million

2. Sully

Predicted Gross: $23.3 million (representing a drop of 33%)

3. Bridget Jones’s Baby

Predicted Gross: $12.3 million

4. Snowden

Predicted Gross: $6.8 million

5. When the Bough Breaks

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million (representing a drop of 61%)

Box Office Results (September 9-11)

Sully had a terrific debut over the weekend with $35 million – good for the fifth highest September opening ever and coming in above my $28.5M estimate. It also marks Tom Hanks’s largest live-action premiere in seven years. With an A Cinemascore grade, expect Sully to have sturdy legs moving forward.

The news wasn’t as good for When the Bough Breaks, which made $14.2 million for runner-up status. I was way higher with $22.7M. The romantic thriller couldn’t match the September openings of similarly themed 2014 and 2015 pics – No Good Deed and The Perfect Guy. That said, Bough‘s price tag is only a reported $10 million so a tidy profit is in order for studio Screen Gems.

Don’t Breathe, as expected, dropped to third after two weeks on top with $8.2 million – in line with my $7.5M forecast for a total of $66M. Suicide Squad was fourth with $5.7 million (I predicted $5.1M) for a $307M tally.

Fifth place belonged to Belgian animated entry The Wild Life and I incorrectly had it outside the top five. It earned $3.3 million (I went with $3.2M) for a lackluster beginning.

Kubo and the Two Strings was sixth, also at $3.3 million (I said $3.8M) to bring its gross to $40M.

Last and least, Kate Beckinsale’s horror flick The Disappointments Room bombed in a 17th place showing with just $1.4 million. I was a bit more generous at $2.3M.

And that will do it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: September 9-11

BLOGGER’S UPDATE (09/09/16): I can no longer ignore the strong signals that Sully will top the box office this weekend. I’m not changing my When the Bough Breaks forecast, but am upping Sully from $19.8M to $28.5M.

The second weekend of September brings us four new entries that will likely perform significantly different. There’s the Clint Eastwood/Tom Hanks collaboration Sully, romantic thriller When the Bough Breaks, horror pic The Disappointments Room and Belgian animated export The Wild Life. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/31/sully-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/31/when-the-bough-breaks-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/09/01/the-disappointments-room-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/09/02/the-wild-life-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, there could be a serious battle for the #1 slot between Bough and Sully. The latter debuted to positive reviews over the weekend (75% currently on Rotten Tomatoes). The former is a critic proof entity that could follow in the footsteps of September 2014’s No Good Deed and September 2015’s The Perfect Guy with grosses in the low to mid 20s. Meanwhile, I have Sully not quite reaching $20M, though it’ll likely have solid legs in subsequent weekends.

For those reasons, I’m giving Bough the edge to reach the top spot this weekend. I have a feeling there may be those who disagree. As for the other newcomers, I’m expecting wildly disappointing results. Neither The Disappointments Room or The Wild Life seem to have any momentum. My $2.3M and $3.2M estimates for them, respectively, leave them outside the top five.

Here’s how the blog readers feel about my newcomer predictions:

Sully – 64% Too Low, 31% Just About Right, 5% Too High

When the Bough Breaks – 53% Just About Right, 44% Too High, 3% Too Low

The Disappointments Room – 64% Just About Right, 22% Too Low, 14% Too High

The Wild Life – 50% Just About Right, 43% Too Low, 7% Too High

As for holdovers, current two-time champ Don’t Breathe should slip to third with Suicide Squad in fourth. Kubo and Pete’s Dragon are likely to battle for the five spot with similar grosses.

And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

1. Sully

Predicted Gross: $28.5 million

2. When the Bough Breaks

Predicted Gross: $22.7 million

3. Don’t Breathe

Predicted Gross: $7.5 million (representing a drop of 52%)

4. Suicide Squad

Predicted Gross: $5.1 million (representing a drop of 49%)

5. Kubo and the Two Strings

Predicted Gross: $3.8 million (representing a drop of 40%)

Box Office Results (September 2-5)

It was a typically sluggish Labor Day weekend as two newcomers failed to connect with audiences. The low-budget horror pic Don’t Breathe, on the other hand, continued to impress with $19.7 million (above my $16.7M estimate) for a total of $55 million.

Suicide Squad was second once again with $12.6 million (in line with my $12.9M projection) as it crossed the $300M line.

Kubo and the Two Strings was third with $8.7 million (I said $8M) for a $36M gross. The four and five spots were holdovers that I incorrectly had outside the top five: Pete’s Dragon with $8.4 million ($66M total) and Sausage Party with $6.4 million ($89M total).

As for the aforementioned newcomers… ouch. Romantic drama The Light Between Oceans was sixth with only $6.1 million (well under my $11.3M prediction).

Sci-fi thriller Morgan fared even worse with just $2.5 million for 18th place… less than a fourth of my generous $10.6M forecast.

And that will do it for now, blog readers! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: September 2-5

The 2016 fall movie kicks off in muted fashion (per usual) with two new entries debuting: sci-fi thriller Morgan and period piece romantic drama The Light Between Oceans. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/24/morgan-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/24/the-light-between-oceans-box-office-prediction/

I’m not expecting either to make much of a splash and I’m predicting Light will just outshine Morgan for the #3 spot. Labor Day weekend has shown in past years that holdovers often don’t lose much of their audience from the previous weekend. In fact, in many cases, its percentage can increase a bit.

This will probably not hold true for current #1 Don’t Breathe, which had a smashing weekend out of the gate (more on that below). Like most horror titles. it should lose a fairly hefty percentage of its opening weekend crowd. Yet it’s likely to remain #1, unless one of the newbies surpasses expectations or Suicide Squad holds even better than forecast. Kubo and the Two Strings likely will round out the top five, though Pete’s Dragon may challenge it for that spot.

As for my blog poll on the two newcomers – 45% believe my Morgan estimate is Just About Right with 39% saying it’s Too High and 16% saying Too Low. With The Light Between Oceans, 40% think it’s Too High, 33% Just About Right, and 27% Too Low.

And with that, my top 5 projections for the holiday weekend that includes Friday to Sunday and Friday to Monday estimates:

1. Don’t Breathe

Predicted Gross: $13 million (Friday to Sunday), $16.7 million (Friday to Monday)

2. Suicide Squad

Predicted Gross: $10.5 million (Friday to Sunday), $12.9 million (Friday to Monday)

3. The Light Between Oceans

Predicted Gross: $9.5 million (Friday to Sunday), $11.3 million (Friday to Monday)

4. Morgan

Predicted Gross: $9 million (Friday to Sunday), $10.6 million (Friday to Monday)

5. Kubo and the Two Strings

Predicted Gross: $6.2 million (Friday to Sunday), $8 million (Friday to Monday)

Box Office Results (August 26-28)

Low-budget horror pic Don’t Breathe continued a solid season for the genre with a fantastic $26.4 million debut (over double my meager $12.4M projection). The critically heralded project, with a reported budget of only $9.9 million, opened beyond even the rosiest of expectations, ousting Suicide Squad from its three-week reign at #1.

Squad dropped to second with $12.2 million (a bit ahead of my $10.6M estimate) for a four-week tally of $283M.

Animated Kubo and the Two Strings actually rose a spot to #3 with $7.8 million in its sophomore frame (in line with $7.5M prediction) for a ten day gross of $24M. A much different animated tale, Sausage Party, was fourth with $7.5 million (I said $7.6M) for a $79M tally.

Opening softly in fifth was the Jason Statham sequel Mechanic: Resurrection with $7.4 million (a bit under my $8.5M forecast).

Following closely behind in sixth was Disney’s Pete’s Dragon, also with $7.4 million (I said $6.6M) for a $54M haul.

War Dogs slipped from third to seventh in its second weekend with $7 million (I said $7.4M) for a $27M overall gross.

Bad Moms continued its impressive run in eight place with $5.5 million (I said $5.4M) for a $95M total. Jason Bourne was ninth with $5.1 million ($4.6M prediction here) for a gross of $149M. Ben-Hur continued its disastrous run in 10th with $4.5 million (a bit below my $5.2M estimate) for a total of only $19M.

There were a pair of limited releases – one that opened OK and the other not so much. Southside with You, dramatizing the first date of first couple Barack and Michelle Obama, managed $2.8 million on 813 screens for 14th place (it’ll expand a bit wider this weekend). Boxing drama Hands of Stone stumbled with just $1.7 million (below my $3.2M projection) on 810 screens for 16th place.

And finally – on this sad day for movie fans – a little of the incomparable Mr. Gene Wilder from Willy Wonka and the Chocolate Factory. May he rest in peace.

Box Office Predictions: August 26-28

***BLOGGER’S UPDATE (08/23/16): It was announced today by the Weinstein Company that they are significantly changing their release pattern for Hands of Stone. The film was originally scheduled to debut this Friday on approximately 2,000 screens. Now, it will premiere on only 800 screens with a wider roll-out on Wednesday (08/31). This forces a shift in my prediction for it. My $6.1 million estimate is now $3.9 million. That would leave it at #11 this weekend based on my projections. 

****BLOGGER’S UPDATE #2 (08/25/16): Finally relenting with Don’t Breathe to give it the #1 spot at $12.4 million. That’s not as high as most prognosticators, but it basically assures it the top spot. The change is reflected below. 

The 2016 summer movie season comes to a close this weekend and it does so in a manner in which most late Augusts do… with a whimper. There are three newbies debuting. None are expected to create major waves. They are: Jason Statham action sequel Mechanic: Resurrection, Sam Raimi produced horror pic Don’t Breathe, and Robert Duran boxing biopic Hands of Stone with Edgar Ramirez and Robert De Niro. You can peruse my individual prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/16/dont-breathe-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/16/mechanic-resurrection-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/17/hands-of-stone-box-office-prediction/

I don’t have any of the newcomers making double digits out of the gate. I will note that my blog readers are strenuously disagreeing on that point with Don’t Breathe, it seems. A whopping 85% believe my prediction is Too Low with 11% saying Just About Right and just 4% saying Too High. Truth be told, horror movies are tough to predict (Lights Out opened considerably beyond my estimate just a month ago). My projection for Don’t Breathe takes into account the late August release and a similar comparison with You’re Next (another critically acclaimed genre title released in the same weekend three summers back). Still, it appears this might be the trendy pick to be #1 in the final summer frame.

As for Mechanic: Resurrection, it’s a pretty even split with 40% saying my forecast is Just About Right and 30% each believing it’s Too High and Too Low. With Hands of Stone, 44% each think I’m either Just About Right or Too Low with 12% saying Too High.

So what will be #1? It looks to me as if Suicide Squad has a real shot at a four-peat if none of the debuting pictures reach past $10M. When it comes to other holdovers in their second weekends, I expect Kubo and the Two Strings will have a smaller percentage drop-off than War Dogs while Sausage Party in weekend #3 may drop at about 50%. It should create an extremely close race between them.

As for Ben-Hur and its dismal weekend opening (more on that below), its drop may not be as massive as some may think (it did get an A- Cinemascore), but over 50% is quite probable. It may battle with Pete’s Dragon and Hands of Stone and Bad Moms for similar grosses.

Add all that activity up and I’ll predict a Top Ten for this final blowout (aka mild fade out) of summer ’16:

1. Don’t Breathe

Predicted Gross: $12.4 million

2. Suicide Squad

Predicted Gross: $10.6 million (representing a drop of 49%)

3. Mechanic: Resurrection

Predicted Gross: $8.5 million

4. Sausage Party

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million (representing a drop of 50%)

5. Kubo and the Two Strings

Predicted Gross: $7.5 million (representing a drop of 40%)

6. War Dogs

Predicted Gross: $7.4 million (representing a drop of 49%)

7. Pete’s Dragon

Predicted Gross: $6.6 million (representing a drop of 42%)

8. Bad Moms

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million (representing a drop of 32%)

9. Ben-Hur

Predicted Gross: $5.2 million (representing a drop of 53%)

10. Jason Bourne

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million (representing a drop of 43%)

 

Box Office Results (August 19-21)

Suicide Squad remained atop the charts for the third weekend in a row, grossing $20.8 million (slightly ahead of my $19.8M estimate) for a total of $262M. As mentioned above, the DC Comics pic has a nice shot at a fourth weekend at #1 (unless I’m wrong about Don’t Breathe… which many believe I am).

Sausage Party held in second place in weekend 2 with $15.4 million (I predicted a bit higher with $16.7M) for a pleasing 10 day total of $65M. Whether or not it reaches $100M is still in question, but this is a fine performance considering its $30M budget.

The Jonah Hill/Miles Teller action comedy War Dogs had the highest debut of the newbies with a respectable third place showing. It grossed $14.6 million, a bit above my $13.4M projection. I expect it lose almost half its audience in its sophomore frame as audiences didn’t seem too impressed with a B Cinemascore grade.

Kubo and the Two Strings garnered strong reviews, but had the weakest opening yet in fourth place for animation studio Laika with $12.6 million (under my generous $17M forecast). It could be that family audiences have simply had their fair share of pics to enjoy this season.

Speaking of underwhelming family entertainment, Disney’s Pete’s Dragon continued its unimpressive run with $11.3 million for fifth place (I predicted $12.3M). The total stands at $42M.

Now… to Ben-Hur. And, boy, is this an enormous flop for Paramount. The umpteenth remake (most notably of the 1959 Charlton Heston Best Picture winner) of the Biblical epic bombed with $11.2 million. I was kinder with a $16.3M prediction. With a reported $100 million budget, this stands as one of the largest flops of the year. Not even Morgan Freeman’s dreadlocks could save it.

Finally, outside of the top ten, the critically lauded Western thriller Hell or High Water expanded to 472 screens and had the highest per screen average of any film. It grossed $2.6 million and is expected to roll out even wider this weekend.

And that’ll do it for now, friends! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: August 19-21

As the summer movie season beings to close out, three new titles open Friday and they could all experience similar grosses. They are the big-budget Ben-Hur remake, animated fantasy Kubo and the Two Strings, and Jonah Hill/Miles Teller action comedy War Dogs. You can peruse my detailed individual predictions on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/10/ben-hur-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/10/war-dogs-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/10/kubo-and-the-two-strings-box-office-prediction/

The difference in predictions between the trio of newcomers is a scant $3.6 million. I have Kubo edging out the others with Ben-Hur closely behind and War Dogs a bit further down.

As for where my loyal blog readers see my predictions: 53% currently feel my Kubo estimate is Just About Right with 30% saying Too High and 17% saying Too Low. 43% say Just About Right on Ben-Hur with 30% saying Too High and 27% saying Too Low. Those numbers for Hur show the unpredictability as to what it might accomplish or not accomplish. As for War Dogs, a whopping 61% think I’m Too Low with 39% saying Just About Right. A whole ZERO percent think I’m Too High on it.

Suicide Squad experienced a hefty decline in its sophomore frame. It shouldn’t be quite as big in its third weekend, but I still estimate it losing in the mid-50s. That should still keep at #1, unless one of the newcomers tops my forecast (which is certainly possible).

The story of this past weekend was the huge opening of Sausage Party (more on that below). I have it losing just over half its audience in weekend #2. Then there’s Disney’s Pete’s Dragon, which experienced a disappointing debut. Its “A” Cinemascore grade could mean a fairly soft decline, unless Kubo takes a nice portion of its family audience away (also possible). If it drops 40% or more, that would put Pete and his green friend in sixth place.

Bottom line: this is one unpredictable weekend where the grosses could be tightly bunched together. Here’s my top 6 predictions on how I believe it will play out:

  1. Suicide Squad

Predicted Gross: $19.8 million (representing a drop of 54%)

2. Kubo and the Two Strings

Predicted Gross: $17 million

3. Sausage Party

Predicted Gross: $16.7 million (representing a drop of 51%)

4. Ben-Hur

Predicted Gross: $16.3 million

5. War Dogs

Predicted Gross: $13.4 million

6. Pete’s Dragon

Predicted Gross: $12.3 million (representing a drop of 43%)

Box Office Results (August 12-14)

As expected, Suicide Squad dropped precipitously in its second weekend but managed to stay atop the box office rather easily with $43.5 million (a touch below my $45.7M prediction) for a total of $222 million. Its 67% dip isn’t quite as pronounced as Batman v Superman‘s 69%, but consider that the Caped Crusader/Man of Steel battle earned $33M more out of the gate than Harley Quinn and company.

The real fiesta was happening over at Columbia Pictures as Seth Rogen’s critically acclaimed raunchy animated Sausage Party produced a gross of $34.2 million. This was on the absolute highest end of expectations (as I totally underestimated it with $19.4M). Making its $30 million budget back in one weekend, expect a sequel to this and some other R rated ‘toons heading your way in the future.

Pete’s Dragon did not bring (or breathe, if you will) the kind of fire normally reserved for Disney live-action remakes. It opened in third with a muted $21.5 million (under my $29.8M estimate), despite solid reviews and its studio pedigree. Family audiences have had plenty to see this summer and the fact that this property was based on one of Disney’s lesser known properties clearly hurt.

Jason Bourne held nicely in weekend 3 with $13.8 million (ahead of my $11.4M forecast) for a total of $127M. Holding even better was Bad Moms in its third frame with $11.3 million (above my $9.3M prognosis) for a very good $71M.

Finally, Meryl Streep’s Florence Foster Jenkins debuted in 8th place with a quiet $6.6 million (I went a bit higher with $8.2M). Interestingly, that’s the exact same figure that Streep’s Ricki and the Flash opened with a year ago.

And that will do it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: August 12-14

Three new pics enter the marketplace in the second weekend of August as Disney’s live-action remake Pete’s Dragon, Seth Rogen’s raunchy animated Sausage Party, and Meryl Streep biopic Florence Foster Jenkins debut. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/03/petes-dragon-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/03/sausage-party-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/03/florence-foster-jenkins-box-office-prediction/

None, in my view, will earn enough to dethrone Suicide Squad from a second weekend atop the charts. If Pete’s Dragon over performs, it’s not outside the realm of possibility that it could place first, but my sub $30M forecast makes that scenario unlikely to me. The big question is how far will Squad fall in its sophomore frame after a record premiere (more on that below). I don’t believe it’ll dip quite as far as Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice did earlier this year (69%), though it could be close and in the mid 60s.

As for Sausage Party, I look for it to almost reach $20M for a third place showing (solid considering its reported $30M budget). Truth be told, this Party is a bit of a wild card. I could see it doing $25M or $15M so I pretty much split the difference.

I’ll predict Mila Kunis and company have the smallest drop this weekend and that could put Bad Moms in a race with Jason Bourne (both in their third weekends) for the #4 position (though I’ll give Mr. Damon the edge by a couple million). As for Bad Singer Florence Foster Jenkins, its relatively low 1500 screen count has me putting it in sixth.

And with that, a top 6 predictions for the weekend:

  1. Suicide Squad

Predicted Gross: $45.7 million

2. Pete’s Dragon

Predicted Gross: $29.8 million

3. Sausage Party

Predicted Gross: $19.4 million

4. Jason Bourne

Predicted Gross: $11.4 million

5. Bad Moms

Predicted Gross: $9.3 million

6. Florence Foster Jenkins

Predicted Gross: $8.2 million

As far as where my readers currently think I am with predictions on the newcomers:

A hefty 69% think I’m Too Low on Pete’s Dragon, 24% think Just About Right, and just 7% Too High

56% think I’m Too Low on Sausage Party, 23% Too High, 21% Just About Right

Florence Foster Jenkins: 54% Too Low, 31% Just About Right, 15% Too High

Box Office Results (August 5-7)

Suicide Squad easily broke the August opening weekend record (by nearly $40 million) as it earned $133.6 million. The DC comics adaptation was subject to mostly negative reviews. Mine was more mixed and you can read it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/05/suicide-squad-movie-review/

Squad did not quite match my goal of $144.3M that I had it at. The biggest worry from Warner Bros could be how far it drops in weekend 2, as discussed above. Its large dip from Friday to Saturday could be a sign of things to come.

Jason Bourne fell to second in weekend #2, tumbling further than I anticipated with a gross of $22.4 million compared to my $27.1M forecast. The fifth entry in the franchise has earned $103M so far.

Bad Moms experienced a nice hold for third at $14 million (above my $12.1M projection) for a two-week total of $50M.

The Secret Life of Pets was fourth with $11.5 million (slightly above my $10.6M estimate) for a whopping total of $319M.

Star Trek Beyond rounded out the top five with $10 million (I said $10.8M) for a tally of $127M.

Finally, the level of anticipation for a horribly reviewed Kevin Spacey cat reincarnation movie was under my guess. Nine Lives debuted in sixth with $6.2 million and under my generous $9.8M prediction.

And that’ll do it for now, friends! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: August 5-7

The first weekend of August at theaters brings us two new films. One is among the most eagerly anticipated movies of the summer. The other finds Kevin Spacey reincarnated into the body of a cat.

They are Suicide Squad, the DC Comics gathering of super villains (including Will Smith, Margot Robbie, and Jared Leto as The Joker) that looks to be a box office juggernaut and Nine Lives, the aforementioned Spacey/kitty cat pic. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/07/26/suicide-squad-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/07/26/nine-lives-box-office-prediction/

Warner Bros. has to be feeling pretty confident with their Squad goals. My prediction for it puts it at the 15th highest domestic opening of all time and it has a legit chance at ruling the box office charts for the entire month of August.

As for Nine Lives, I’m predicting it falls just under double digits for a sixth place showing. As for holdovers, Jason Bourne will likely lose more than half its audience in weekend #2 while the drop for Bad Moms may not be quite as pronounced. Moms may stay put at third with Star Trek Beyond slipping to fourth and The Secret Life of Pets rounding out the top five (though those two could swap spots).

And with that, a top 6 predictions for the weekend:

  1. Suicide Squad

Predicted Gross: $144.3 million

2. Jason Bourne

Predicted Gross: $27.1 million

3. Bad Moms

Predicted Gross: $12.1 million

4. Star Trek Beyond

Predicted Gross: $10.8 million

5. The Secret Life of Pets

Predicted Gross: $10.6 million

6. Nine Lives

Predicted Gross: $9.8 million

**At press time, here are the results for my poll on the newbies:

Suicide Squad

52% believe my prediction is “Just About Right”

37% believe my prediction is “Too High”

11% believe my prediction is “Too Low”

Nine Lives

43% believe my prediction is “Just About Right”

37% believe my prediction is “Too High”

20% believe my prediction is “Too Low”

Box Office Results (July 29-31)

Matt Damon’s return as Jason Bourne brought audiences in to the tune of $59.2 million – a solid opening that didn’t match my estimate of $67.6M. While the star’s last turn as the title hero in 2007 performed better with $69M out of the gate, this is still a hefty enough debut to warrant further franchise entries.

Star Trek Beyond fell precipitously in its sophomore frame with $24.7 million for second, under my $28.5M prediction for a two-week take of $106M. The third Trek pic in this particular franchise will easily be the lowest grosser thus far and puts into question its viability going forward (and… beyond).

Bad Moms had a good start in third with $23.8 million, a bit below my $26M projection. As mentioned above, it may not fall too hard next weekend to remain in third.

The Secret Life of Pets was fourth with $18.9 million (above my $16.4M forecast) for a $296M total. A less successful animated feature – Ice Age: Collision Course – was fifth in weekend 2 with $10.9 million (I said $10.1M) for an overall gross of $42 million. Sleeper horror hit Lights Out was sixth, earning $10.8 million in its second weekend (I said $10.6M). It has also made $42 million so far. Ghostbusters was seventh in its third weekend with $10.1 million (a touch under my $11.2M projection) for a $106M total.

YA tech thriller Nerve performed fairly well in an 8th place debut with $9.4 million over the traditional weekend and $15.4 million since its Wednesday roll out – slightly below my respective estimates of $10.8M and $16.3M.

Rounding out the top ten: Finding Dory in ninth with $4.3 million (I said $4.5M) for a $469M haul and The Legend of Tarzan in tenth with $2.4 million (I was over with $3.6M) for a $121M total.

Outside the top ten, Woody Allen’s Cafe Society expanded nationwide and placed 12th with $2.3 million. I said $2.3M! So we’ll end on that high note!

That’s all for now – until next time…