Sporting an extra couple minutes of runtime from the 2019 original and primed to build anticipation for Doomsday, Disney/Marvel unveils Avengers: Endgame Encore on September 25th. The epic 22nd feature in the MCU is already the second highest grossing pic worldwide ever (behind Avatar) and would need a bit over $125 million globally to take the crown back.
The re-release immediately follows another record for the franchise. Spider-Man: Brand New Day just became the (unadjusted for inflation) #1 domestic earner of all time. Endgame, with its voluminous list of cast members from Robert Downey Jr.’s Tony Stark to the Chris triumvirate (Evans, Hemsworth, Pratt) to Robert Redford’s final screen appearance and so many more, should benefit from being sandwiched between New Day and Doomsday.
Estimates have this making anywhere from late teens to late 20s. I’m going more on the lower end of that spectrum. That might put it in the mix for the top spot depending on the sophomore frame for Resident Evil.
Avengers: Endgame Encore opening weekend prediction: $22.6 million
Steven Spielberg’s latest alien tale Disclosure Day looks to open impressively as the only new release in the top 5. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on the legendary filmmaker’s latest here:
With solid reviews and a robust marketing campaign, Spielberg’s return to the extraterrestrial genre will have no trouble topping the charts. I do not, however, think it’ll surpass the anticipated premiere range in the mid 40s to mid 50s. I’m putting it smack dab in the middle of those figures.
The last three Scary Movie flicks have all fallen in the high 50s during their sophomore outings. After a terrific opening (more on that below), I don’t see why the sixth installment wouldn’t do the same and it might even approach 60%.
That could mean Obsession, the little horror movie that could, rises from 4th to 2nd in its fifth weekend assuming it only drops around 10% with current champ Scary Movie dropping to third. I’m estimating that Masters of the Universe and Backrooms see declines in the mid 50s and place fourth and fifth.
Here’s how I see it shaking out:
1. Disclosure Day
Predicted Gross: $51.6 million
2. Obsession
Predicted Gross: $22.8 million
3. Scary Movie
Predicted Gross: $22 million
4. Masters of the Universe
Predicted Gross: $13.5 million
4. Backrooms
Predicted Gross: $12.4 million
Box Office Results (June 5-7)
Scary Movie reenergized a franchise that had been dormant for 13 years and set a series best start with $54.3 million, besting my $47.5 million projection. The spoof flicks that have been around since the beginning of the 21st century looks good to go for an eventual seventh entry and I doubt a decade plus wait will occur.
Masters of the Universe did not have the power of box office potency in second with $29.4 million, on target with my $29.8 million call. Considering the reported budget approaching $200 million, that’s a weak debut for the second big screen adaptation of the 80s Saturday morning animated show.
Backrooms was third with a considerable but understandable 68% sophomore slide. The low-budget horror hit took in $26.2 million compared to my $30.6 million forecast. The two-week tally is a fantastic $135 million.
Obsession continued its historic run in weekend #4 in fourth with $25.3 million, surpassing my $23.4 million estimate. The really low-budget horror hit grew to $151 million.
The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act, featuring episodes of the hit web series, rounded out the top five with $12.3 million, in line with my $13.1 million take. Since its Thursday start, the gross is $20.2 million.
The Mandalorian and Grogu, the summer’s most notable disappointment (more than He-Man), was sixth with $9.6 million (I said $11 million). The three-week earnings of $155 million is low for its storied franchise.
Finally, Power Ballad with Paul Rudd and Nick Jonas (despite decent critical reaction) bombed in 12th with only $1.2 million. I thought it might strike a higher chord at $4.2 million.
**Blogger’s Update (06/03): A day after posting my top 5 predictions, we are making it a top 6. The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act wasn’t really on my radar screen. However, the combination of episodes for the adult web animated series opens Thursday and is expected to make some noise. My $13.1 million Friday to Sunday guesstimate gives it the 5 spot, knocking The Mandalorian to sixth.
While scary movies ruled the charts in the remarkable weekend that just happened, the franchise that spoofs them returns to theaters for the first time in 13 years and should place #1. In addition to Scary Movie, He-Man is back in multiplexes after nearly 40 years offscreen with Masters of the Universe. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Scary Movie looks to be arriving at an opportune time as horror flicks are dominating and posting previously unthought of grosses via Backrooms and Obsession. The sixth entry in the series began in 2000, it could absolutely break the franchise opening record held by Scary Movie 3 at $48 million. I’ve got it just under in what should be an uncomplicated path to the top slot.
The race for #2 is more open. Adapting the toy line and Saturday morning cartoon that began over 40 years ago (and led to a panned Dolph Lundgren live-action version in 1987), Masters needs family audiences to turn out as teens and adults will be preoccupied with Scary Movie and scary movies. My projection of just under $30 million would be considered a letdown. If Masters does my estimated figure, it opens the door for Backrooms to be second if it drops in the 60% range. That’s what I’m saying will happen in a photo finish.
Then there’s Obsession which has built its earnings from the first week to the second to the third. As mentioned before, that’s practically unheard of for any wide release movie (let alone a horror one). I have it finally easing in the mid teens in week #4, but we’re in uncharted territory here so who knows?
After a troubling second outing, The Mandalorian and Grogu should round out the top five. Finally, Power Ballad with Paul Rudd and Nick Jonas expands nationwide. I didn’t do an individual post for it. I’ll put its wide release at $4.2 million and that’s well outside the top five.
Here’s how I have it shaking out:
1. Scary Movie
Predicted Gross: $47.5 million
2. Backrooms
Predicted Gross: $30.6 million
3. Masters of the Universe
Predicted Gross: $29.8 million
4. Obsession
Predicted Gross: $23.4 million
5. The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act
Predicted Gross: $13.1 million
6. The Mandalorian and Grogu
Predicted Gross: $11 million
Box Office Results (May 29-31)
Before Backrooms came out, A24’s largest opening weekend belonged to Civil War at $25 million. I knew Backrooms would blast past that record and predicted that it would more than double that figure at $57 million. I couldn’t have been more wrong. Based on the hit found footage web series, it more than tripled A24’s previous best at $81.4 million. To say the least, young viewers turned out in droves and a new franchise is undoubtedly born.
Obsession stayed in second and increased its crowd by 14% at $27.3 million, falling just below my $29.5 million prediction. The phenomenon now has $105 million in the bank after three weeks.
A week after experiencing the worst Star Wars start in the Disney era, The Mandalorian and Grogu had the heftiest percentage drop of them all. Falling 70%, it made $24.4 million compared to my $25.6 million call. The less than anticipated total is $136 million.
Michael was fourth with $11.8 million (I said $13 million) as the musical biopic has amassed $340 million after six weeks.
Nate Bargatze is a bestselling stand-up, but it didn’t translate to box office bucks in his first starring vehicle The Breadwinner. It sputtered in fifth with only $7.3 million. I was more generous at $12.1 million.
Finally, Pressure opened in seventh with $5.8 million. The well-reviewed World War II drama got beyond my $4.9 million estimate with the fifth highest per theater average in the top 10.
Power Ballad is the latest musical dramedy in the genre that Irish filmmaker John Carney specializes in. Slated for a June 5th stateside bow, the Lionsgate release features Paul Rudd as a wedding singer who scores an unexpected hit via a fading boy band star (Nick Jonas). The supporting cast includes Peter McDonald, Marcella Plunkett, Haley Rose Liu, and Jack Reynor. Months before the summer premiere, it has been screened this month at the Dublin International Film Festival and South by Southwest.
Carney is best known for 2007’s Once with follow-ups including Begin Again and Sing Street. It sounds like he might have another crowdpleaser on deck. Ballad has scored 100% on Rotten Tomatoes with 82% on Metacritic. Some reviews are calling it one of Rudd’s strongest performances.
While awards prospects are likely limited, both Once and Begin Again landed Original Song noms at the Oscars. The song at the center here is “How To Write a Song (Without You)” and it could be a track worth monitoring several months down the line. If Lionsgate puts up a decent campaign in Musical or Comedy at the Golden Globes (where Sing Street vied for Best Motion Picture), both the movie and Rudd could contend. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
We have no major wide releases to start off the year as holiday holdovers will rule the charts. That should start with Avatar: Fire and Ash for a third consecutive weekend in 1st position. The jockeying for chart placement after that could be interesting.
Seasonal leftovers often see minimal declines during the Christmas corridor and there’s no reason to think that won’t be the case this time around. Some dips should be less severe than others. Anaconda, for example, received a meh B Cinemascore grade. Percentage wise, I suspect it will fall further in its sophomore outing than Marty Supreme (B+ CS) or Song Sung Blue (which received an A grade).
Adult audiences might be keeping up with Supreme and Blue as well as The Housemaid while parents and their kiddos catch up (or take in repeat viewings) of Zootopia 2, David, and SpongeBob. Here’s how I see the top 8 shaking out:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
Predicted Gross: $42 million
2. Zootopia 2
Predicted Gross: $15.3 million
3. Marty Supreme
Predicted Gross: $14.2 million
4. The Housemaid
Predicted Gross: $12.5 million
5. Anaconda
Predicted Gross: $8 million
6. The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants
Predicted Gross: $7.7 million
7. David
Predicted Gross: $6.5 million
8. Song Sung Blue
Predicted Gross: $6 million
Box Office Results (December 26-28)
Avatar: Fire and Ash scorched the Yuletide box office with a mere 29% decline for $63 million in its sophomore weekend. That just tops my $61.8 million prediction as James Cameron’s third franchise entry climbed to $216 million.
Where I went wrong in my Christmas projections was with animated features. I didn’t give Zootopia 2 enough credit in its fifth go-round as it was second and increased its family audience by 34% to $19.8 million compared to my $13.8 million call. The Disney juggernaut’s haul is $321 million.
Of the three holiday newcomers, I was correct in projecting that Marty Supreme would earn the most in third. Timothée Chalamet had his third holiday hit in a row as the period sports drama made $17.7 million over the traditional Friday to Sunday frame with $27.3 million since Thursday. That’s right in line with my respective estimates of $18.2 million and $27.6 million. It looks like a bright road ahead for the Oscar hopeful.
The Housemaid held sturdy in weekend #2 with $15.3 million. I went with a tad more at $17.3 million as the thriller is up to $46 million.
Meta comedy Anaconda with Paul Rudd and Jack Black rounded out the top five with $14.5 million and $23.5 million when counting Christmas Day. I was close with predictions of $14.2 million and $20.5 million. As mentioned above, its future is a bit murkier.
Continuing the theme of animated misses on my part, Biblical tale David dropped more than I figured with $12.5 million in sixth. I said $19.5 million though the Angel Studios release is doing just fine with $49 million in two weeks.
The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants was seventh with $11.1 million, shy of my $14.6 million forecast. The two-week tally is $38 million.
Finally, Song Sung Blue with Hugh Jackman and Kate Hudson opened in eighth with $7 million with $11.4 million including Thursday grosses. That’s below my $9.6 million and $13.7 million predictions as it hopes word-of-mouth keeps it afloat for a few weeks.
Three Christmas offerings look to brighten up the box office as 2025 draws to a close. We have meta comedy Anaconda with Paul Rudd and Jack Black, the nationwide expansion of Timothée Chalamet’s Oscar contender Marty Supreme, and musical dramedy Song Sung Blue starring Hugh Jackman and Kate Hudson. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:
Let’s start with those newcomers in a complicated weekend to project. After a sizzling per theater average in limited release, Marty Supreme could be ready for an impressive expansion. I’ve got it leading the debuting trio with a three-day in the high teens and mid 20s when counting Thursday.
I have Anaconda hitting low teens Friday to Sunday with just over $20 million for the four-day. That would put it in sixth. It is important to remember that holiday holdovers are likely to experience smallish declines since we are in the Christmas corridor.
Song Song Blue could get to double digits over the traditional weekend though I have it barely under for an 8th place start. Word-of-mouth should carry it forward into January as it’s said to be a crowdpleaser.
There’s little doubt that Avatar: Fire and Ash will repeat in first. The big question is what the sophomore frame percentage decline will look like after it opened on the lower end of expectations (more on that below). I’m thinking it decreases about 30%.
Three features in their second go-rounds (David, The Housemaid, The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants) should all see meager eases as audiences catch up on the Yuletide products. Here’s how I envision the top 8 shaking out and please note projection for holdovers are for Friday to Sunday:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
Predicted Gross: $61.8 million
2. David
Predicted Gross: $19.5 million
3. Marty Supreme
Predicted Gross: $18.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $27.6 million (Thursday to Sunday)
4. The Housemaid
Predicted Gross: $17.3 million
5. The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants
Predicted Gross: $14.6 million
6. Anaconda
Predicted Gross: $14.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $20.5 million (Thursday to Sunday)
7. Zootopia 2
Predicted Gross: $13.8 million
8. Song Sung Blue
Predicted Gross: $9.6 million (Friday to Sunday); $13.7 million (Thursday to Sunday)
Box Office Results (December 19-21)
James Cameron’s third voyage to Pandora had no trouble ruling the charts, but it couldn’t match my forecast. Avatar: Fire and Ash earned $89.1 million compared to my $98 million take. That’s far less than the $134 million that 2022 predecessor The Way of Water made out of the gate. To be fair, Water had far less competition though this is still an unremarkable start. Let’s see how it plays throughout the season.
Biblical animated tale David from Angel Studios took flight with $22 million, just ahead of my $20.8 million. That’s actually the highest opening for the studio (surpassing Sound of Freedom) and it should fill multiplex pews this coming weekend.
The Housemaid, based on a bestseller and starring Sydney Sweeney and Amanda Seyfried, checked in with $19 million. That’s a tad less than my $21.9 million call as a sizable female crowd turned out.
The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants underwhelmed compared to other franchise entries with $15.6 million (I said $17.1 million). Family audiences could still make it a priority with kiddos out of school over Christmas.
Finally, Zootopia 2 rounded out the top five with $14.8 million, in line with my $14.3 million prediction. The four-week tally is $283 million.
Sony is banking on Anaconda mixing up a lot of box office dough when it debuts on Christmas Day. The high-concept comedy from Tom Gormican finds Paul Rudd and Jack Black, fresh off A Minecraft Movie, attempting to remake the 1997 cult favorite feature of the same name that starred Jennifer Lopez, Ice Cube, Owen Wilson, and Jon Voight. The supporting players in this meta experience include Steve Zahn, Thandiwe Newton, Daniela Melchior, and Selton Mello.
Younger viewers may not be overly familiar with the source material. However, the PG-13 rating and comedic heavyweights should help push this to a decent start. With Christmas on a Thursday (that hasn’t occurred since 2014), crunching the numbers is a little tricky. A four-day rollout near $30 million is doable though I’ll go with low to mid teens for the traditional weekend and low 20s when counting the holiday.
Anaconda opening weekend prediction: $14.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $20.5 million (Thursday to Sunday)
After a 15 year hiatus from the big screen, James L. Brooks is back in the director’s chair when Ella McCay debuts December 12th. The politically themed dramedy features Emma Mackey in the title role with a supporting cast including Jamie Lee Curtis, Jack Lowden, Kumail Nanjiani, Ayo Edebiri, Julie Kavner, Rebecca Hall, Albert Brooks, and Woody Harrelson.
In the 1980s and 90s, Brooks was a cinematic force whose efforts like Terms of Endearment, Broadcast News, and As Good As It Gets were box office smashes and Best Picture nominees (or winner in the case of Terms). The 85-year-old auteur’s last production was 2010’s rom com How Do You Know. It flopped despite the star power of Reese Witherspoon, Owen Wilson, Paul Rudd, and Jack Nicholson in what appears to be his final role.
McCay doesn’t even have megawatt casting to bring in audiences. The fact that it skipped the festival circuit tells you 20th Century Studios knew this wasn’t an awards player unlike the filmmaker’s classics. This is also a genre that goes to streaming nowadays more often than not. Add all that up and this should languish in the lower single digits.
Ella McCay opening weekend prediction: $2.7 million
Alex Scharfman’s Death of a Unicorn is the latest in a lengthy list of eat the rich pics over the past few years. This one is mixed with some centuries old European folklore pertaining to the title characters and Jenna Ortega bringing her mopey teen attitude inside its mansion walls. The auto accident that kicks off the multi-genre exercise should ensure more B-movie scares and humor. It’s curiously low on both and dodgy CGI doesn’t help. While not a complete wreck, it’s damaged goods.
Elliot (Paul Rudd) is a widowed attorney en route to the sprawling estate (doubling as a nature preserve) of his pharmaceutical empire boss Odell Leopold (Richard E. Grant). Daughter Ridley (Ortega) is reluctantly along for the ride when they smash into a creature that sure seems like the mythical beast of legend. When Ridley touches the wounded creature’s horn, a connection is made before Dad tire irons the animal.
At the Leopolds, Elliot at first tries to conceal the roadkill in his hatchback and get down to business with Odell, wife Belinda (Téa Leoni), and clueless and hobby hopping son Shepard (a game Will Poulter). Yet the roadkill might not be actually killed and its elders lurk on the property grounds. Meanwhile Ridley googles the history of unicorn mythos and it indicates a violent near future. The Leopolds plot a way to increase their wealth despite the dangerous situation.
When the horn piercing bloodletting finally commences, Unicorn hadn’t yet added compelling ingredients to its menu of top 1% satire combined with a familiar daddy-daughter healing subplot. I was hoping the righteous kills from the otherworldly beings would bring the gory and guilty pleasures. Subpar visual effects tame those aspects. That leaves us with occasional laughs courtesy of Poulter and Anthony Carrigan’s unappreciated family butler. The overall results are served up in middling fashion.
Karate Kid: Legends hopes to kick into high gear at multiplexes this weekend. We also have horror pic Bring Her Back seeking to scare up decent dollars. My detailed prediction posts on the newcomers can be accessed here:
The recent success of Cobra Kai on Netflix could assist with Legends performing well. Ralph Macchio and Jackie Chan headline the sixth feature in the franchise that began over 40 years ago. My low 20s estimate puts it in third.
Bring Her Back is the sophomore feature from the Philippou brothers after their 2023 summer sleeper Talk to Me. My high single digits figure puts it in the fourth just ahead of Final Destination Bloodlines in its third outing.
I have the top two slots still belonging to Lilo & Stitch and Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning after they propelled the Memorial Day weekend to its highest earnings ever. My guesstimates have both easing in the low to mid 50s percent range.
Here’s how I have the top 5 playing out:
1. Lilo & Stitch
Predicted Gross: $66.4 million
2. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
Predicted Gross: $28.7 million
3. Karate Kid: Legends
Predicted Gross: $21.3 million
4. Bring Her Back
Predicted Gross: $8.5 million
5. Final Destination Bloodlines
Predicted Gross: $8 million
Box Office Results (May 23-26)
The Mouse House was in celebration mode as Lilo & Stitch achieved the largest Memorial Day weekend in history and surpassed the previous $160 million four-day record held by Tom Cruise’s Top Gun: Maverick. The live-action remake of the 2002 animated feature made $146 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of the holiday frame while amassing $182.6 million counting Monday. While that’s under my respective predictions of $159.7 million and $196.6 million, it is still a scorching start for the Disney property as it will vie for highest domestic earner of summer 2025.
While Tom Cruise’s record was broken by Lilo, he set one of his own as Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning was second with $64 million for the three-day and $79 million for the four-day. That’s right on target with my $64.4 million and $80.8 million projections as the eighth and allegedly final Ethan Hunt adventure set a personal best for the franchise. It needed to do so considering the reported $400 million price tag.
Final Destination Bloodlines was third with $24.1 million from Friday to Monday and that’s on pace with my $24.9 million call. The sequel has taken in an impressive $94 million in two weeks.
Thunderbolts*/The New Avengers was fourth with $12.2 million, a shade below my $14 million forecast. The MCU property sits at $174 million in four weeks.
Sinners rounded out the top five with $11.9 million (I went higher at $14.5 million) for $258 million in six weeks.
The Last Rodeo, the latest faith-based drama from Angel Studios, lassoed $5.4 million (Friday-Sunday) and $6.9 million (FRI-MON) in sixth. That’s a bit below my estimates of $6.4 million and $7.8 million.
Posting a commendable per screen average, critically lauded comedy Friendship with Tim Robinson and Paul Rudd was seventh in its nationwide expansion to just over 1000 venues. It made $4.5 million over the three-day and $5.7 million adding Monday. That’s slightly more than my $4.2 million and $5.1 million predictions. It now has $8 million total in its coffers.
Finally, A Minecraft Movie lost steam due to Lilo with $2.9 million in eighth. I was more generous at $4.9 million. The blockbuster has brought in a massive $421 million after eight weeks.
