In the past week, the biggest Oscar news was the announcement that Emancipation with Will Smith will debut in December and therefore be eligible for consideration. You can read my thoughts on that here:
As you’ll see below, Emancipation doesn’t make much of an impact anywhere in my estimates. However, I am putting Will Smith in at 10th for Best Actor. Part of that is the fairly weak field for lead actor (especially compared to Actress). Do I think Smith will get a nod? No, but it’s not entirely out of the question if his performance is critically hailed.
My BP lineup has one change with Triangle of Sadness back in the top ten over Decision to Leave.
In other developments:
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- Todd Field (Tar) returns to the directorial quintet and that removes Edward Berger for All Quiet on the Western Front.
- While the Best Actress field remains the same, Danielle Deadwyler’s work in Till rises to 2nd place after rave notices at the New York Film Festival.
- Brad Pitt (Babylon), who’s been subject to some bad press this week, falls out of my Supporting Actor five in favor of Ben Whishaw for Women Talking.
- Babylon has also been taken out of my Original Screenplay selections with Tar being elevated.
- There’s a new #1 in Documentary Feature with Descendant nabbing the slot over All the Beauty and the Bloodshed.
You can peruse all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Women Talking (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Babylon (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)
6. Tar (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Whale (PR: 8) (E)
9. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 11) (+2)
10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Decision to Leave (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Elvis (PR: 13) (E)
14. Till (PR: Not Ranked)
15. The Woman King (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Empire of Light
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)
5. Todd Field, Tar (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (E)
9. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 5) (+3)
3. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 6) (E)
7. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 9) (E)
10. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (E)
2. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)
8. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Song Kang-ho, Broker (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Will Smith, Emancipation (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 2) (E)
3. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 4) (E)
5. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everything All at Once (PR: 6) (E)
7. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Nina Hoss, Tar (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Thuso Mbedu, The Woman King (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Zoe Kazan, She Said
Sadie Sink, The Whale
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jeremy Strong, Armageddon Time (PR: 8) (E)
9. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Micheal Ward, Empire of Light (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (+1)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tar (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Babylon (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Armageddon Time (PR: 8) (E)
9. Empire of Light (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Broker (PR: 10 (E)
Dropped Out:
Bros
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Whale (PR: 2) (E)
3. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (+1)
4. White Noise (PR: 5) (+1)
5. She Said (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Living (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Bones and All (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (-1)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Till (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Son
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)
2. Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)
3. Strange World (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marcel the Shell with Shoes on (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wendell and Wild (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Sea Beast (PR: 7) (+1)
7. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Bad Guys (PR: 8) (E)
9. Minions: The Rise of Gru (PR: 9) (E)
10. Lightyear (PR: 10) (E)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 1) (E)
2. Decision to Leave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Close (PR: 3) (E)
4. Saint Omer (PR: 4) (E)
5. Bardo (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Holy Spider (PR: 6) (E)
7. Argetina, 1985 (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Klondike (PR: 8) (E)
9. Alcarras (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Corsage (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
EO
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Descendant (PR: 3) (+2)
2. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Navalny (PR: 2) (-1)
4. All That Breathes (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Territory (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fire of Love (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Good Night Oppy (PR: 7) (E)
8. Last Flight Home (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Moonage Daydream (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Sr. (PR: 10) (E)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Empire of Light (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (-1)
4. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 4) (E)
5. Bardo (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (E)
9. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Batman (PR: 10) (E)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Woman King (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (E)
7. Corsage (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Living (PR: 9) (E)
10. Amsterdam (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Elvis (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Women Talking (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Tar (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Decision to Leave (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Whale (PR: 1) (E)
2. Babylon (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Elvis (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Batman (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Amsterdam (PR: Not Ranked)
8. X (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Corsage (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Woman King (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Three Thousand Years of Longing
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Babylon (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Empire of Light (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Women Talking (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tar (PR: 5) (-1)
7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Bardo (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Batman
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 9) (+5)
5. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “On My Way” from Marry Me (PR: 4) (-2)
7. “New Body Rhuma” from White Noise (PR: 10) (+3)
8. “This is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (-2)
9. “I Ain’t Worried” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Heartbeat” from Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Vegas” from Elvis
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Black Panther : Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Elvis (PR: 2) (-2)
5. The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Empire of Light (PR: 6) (E)
7. Bardo (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: Not Ranked)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Batman (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Amsterdam
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. Babylon (PR: 4) (E)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Batman (PR: 6) (E)
7. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (E)
9. Nope (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Thirteen Lives (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Fabelmans
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)
4. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Batman (PR: 4) (-2)
7. RRR (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Good Night Oppy (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Nope (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
All Quiet on the Western Front
And that equates to these movies nabbing these numbers of nominations:
11 Nominations
Babylon
9 Nominations
The Fabelmans
8 Nominations
Everything Everywhere All at Once
7 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin, Women Talking
5 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front, Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick, The Whale
4 Nominations
Tar
3 Nominations
Avatar: The Way of Water, Empire of Light
2 Nominations
Bardo, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Triangle of Sadness, Turning Red
1 Nomination
All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, The Batman, Close, Decision to Leave, Descendant, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Navalny, RRR, Saint Omer, She Said, The Son, Till, Strange World, Tell It Like a Woman, The Territory, Wendell and Wild, Where the Crawdads Sing, White Noise, The Woman King
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