Shortlists covering seven of the feature film races at the Oscars were unveiled this afternoon. We now know the 15 pictures that will contend for Best Original Score, Original Song, International Feature Film, and Documentary Feature. Additionally, we have our 10 finalists for Makeup and Hairstyling, Sound, and Visual Effects.
I’ll go over each competition below, but I went 62 for 90 in my overall picks. It was a good day for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and All Quiet on the Western Front. They got in everywhere they reasonably could have.
With The Batman and Everything Everywhere All at Once, it was a mixed announcement as both made the cut for some and not others where they were expected to. The documentary Good Night Oppy had perhaps the worst day. It was widely anticipated to get in for Documentary and (to a lesser degree) Visual Effects and made neither.
Let’s break it down! **Selections that I correctly called are in bold
Best Original Score
Nominees:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Devotion
Don’t Worry Darling
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Nope
She Said
The Woman King
Women Talking
HOW I DID: 9/15
The most notable omissions here are Empire of Light and The Batman while Devotion in particular wasn’t expected to be included. I also incorrectly named Bardo, Living, RRR, and White Noise. My top 5 from my projections 3 days ago (Women Talking, Babylon, The Fabelmans, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, The Banshees of Inisherin) remain.
Best Original Song
“Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman
“Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing
“Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
“Dust and Ash” from The Voice of Dust and Ash
“Good Afternoon” from Spirited
“Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick
“Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
“My Mind & Me” from Selena Gomez: My Mind & Me
“Naatu” from RRR
“New Body Rhumba” from White Noise
“Nothing Is Lost (You Give Me Strength)” from Avatar: The Way of Water
“Stand Up” from Till
“This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once
“Til You’re Home” from A Man Called Otto
“Time” from Amsterdam
HOW I DID: 10/15
As expected, there’s some heavy hitters in the mix with Lady Gaga, Rihanna, Taylor Swift, The Weeknd, and Selena Gomez (who I didn’t predict). The highest profile omission is Billie Eilish for “Nobody Like U” in Turning Red. My other misses were “Keep Rising” from The Woman King, “On My Way (Marry Me)” from Marry Me (a miss for Jennifer Lopez), and “Ready As I’ll Ever Be” from The Return of Tanya Tucker – Featuring Brandi Carlile.
Best International Feature Film
All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)
Bardo (Mexico)
The Blue Caftan (Morocco)
Cairo Conspiracy (Sweden)
Close (Belgium)
Corsage (Austria)
Decision to Leave (South Korea)
EO (Poland)
Holy Spider (Denmark)
Joyland (Pakistan)
Last Film Show (India)
The Quiet Girl (Ireland)
Return to Seoul (Cambodia)
Saint Omer (France)
HOW I DID: 13/15
My best showing as I incorrectly had Spain’s Alcarras and Mars One from Brazil. India saved a little face with Last Film Show getting in. They didn’t select RRR and it could have won. There are really no major surprises here.
Best Documentary Feature
All That Breathes
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Bad Axe
Children of the Mist
Descendant
Fire of Love
Hallelujah: Leonardo Cohen, a Journey, a Song
Hidden Letters
A House Made of Splinters
The Janes
Last Flight Home
Moonage Daydream
Navalny
Retrograde
The Territory
HOW I DID: 10/15
I took a swing by not including The Territory and it got in. As forthe aforementioned Good Night Oppy and Sr., they were anticipated to be here and are not. My other whiffs were Gabby Giffords Won’t Back Down, Riotsville, U.S.A., and Wildcat. My high five from December 18th – All That Breathes, Navalny, Fire of Love, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Descendant – remain.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
All Quiet on the Western Front
Amsterdam
Babylon
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Blonde
Crimes of the Future
Elvis
Emancipation
The Whale
HOW I DID: 7/10
Here’s a race where Everything Everywhere isn’t to be found. I also went with Three Thousand Years of Longing and The Woman King. Once again my top five from the weekend is in. The Crimes of the Future nod is truly unexpected.
Best Sound
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Moonage Daydream
Top Gun: Maverick
HOW I DID: 7/10
Once again my quintet of picks from 3 days ago are safe. Nope is a significant omission as is RRR (Thirteen Lives is my other miss). The unexpected addition of the Bowie doc Moonage Daydream is being praised.
Best Visual Effects
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore
Jurassic World: Dominion
Nope
ThirteenLives
Top Gun: Maverick
HOW I DID: 6/10
Here’s where my predicted five will undoubtedly be altered when I make my update. I had Everything Everywhere and RRR at 3rd and 4th, respectively. They are gone. I also incorrectly called Good Night Oppy and Thor: Love and Thunder. This means Avatar (which should win), Maverick, and Multiverse are the trio remaining that I projected. In my view, this bodes well for Panther getting in. The fifth slot is far trickier to estimate at the moment.
And that does it for now, folks! I’ll have updated predictions in all races up before Christmas!
The Academy, as they do every year, whittles down a few of their races to a set 10-15 contenders before announcing the final five on January 24th. This occurs tomorrow. For Original Score and Song and International Feature Film and Documentary Feature, the list goes down to 15. For Makeup and Hairstyling, Sound, and Visual Effects – it drops to 10. There are surprises every year. In 2021, Titane was shockingly left out of International Feature Film.
I’m giving you my predicted shortlists for all 7 feature film derbies with some commentary. I’ll have a recap up tomorrow!
Best Original Score
Predicted Shortlist:
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Bardo
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Empire of Light
The Fabelmans
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Living
Nope
RRR
White Noise
The Woman King
Women Talking
***She Said was just on the outside looking in and I wouldn’t discount A Man Called Otto either.
Best Original Song
Predicted Shortlist:
“Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman
“Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing
“Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
“Good Tonight” from The Bad Guys
“Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick
“Keep Rising” from The Woman King
“Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
“Naatu Naatu” from RRR
“New Body Rhumba” from White Noise
“Nobody Like U” from Turning Red
“Nothing Is Lost (You Give Me Strength)” from Avatar: The Way of Water
“On My Way (Marry Me)” from Marry Me
“Ready As I’ll Ever Be” from The Return of Tanya Tucker – Featuring Brandi Carlile
“Stand Up” from Till
“This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once
***Leaving “Love Is Not Love” from Bros off was tough and don’t discount a tune (probably “Carried Away”) from Lyle Lyle Crocodile.
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Shortlist:
Alcarras (Spain)
All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)
Bardo (Mexico)
Cairo Conspiracy (Sweden)
Close (Belgium)
Corsage (Austria)
Decision to Leave (South Korea)
EO (Poland)
Holy Spider (Denmark)
Joyland (Pakistan)
Mars One (Netherlands)
The Quiet Girl (Ireland)
Return to Seoul (Cambodia)
Saint Omer (France)
***No love for Japan’s Plan 75 or Ukraine’s Klondike (which would be a surprise omission), but both could easily surface. I also don’t have India’s Last Film Show making the cut. If it doesn’t, that would confirm that nation’s error in not putting up RRR.
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Shortlist:
All That Breathes
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Bad Axe
Descendant
Fire of Love
Gabby Giffords Won’t Back Down
Good Night Oppy
The Janes
Last Flight Home
Moonage Daydream
Navalny
Retrograde
Riotsville U.S.A.
Sr.
Wildcat
***My major snub here is The Territory. I also left Sidney (about the legendary Poitier) out which is certainly risky.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Shortist:
Amsterdam
Babylon
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Blonde
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Three Thousand Years of Longing
The Whale
The Woman King
***I so wanted to put X here, but didn’t pull the trigger. All Quiet on the Western Front, Emancipation, and The Fabelmans are all viable too.
Best Sound
Predicted Shortlist:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
The Batman
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Nope
RRR
Thirteen Lives
Top Gun: Maverick
***Leaving out Black Panther: Wakanda Forever is risky and this is another category where The Fabelmans is possible. Same goes for The Woman King.
Best Visuasl Effects
Predicted Shortlist:
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Good Night Oppy
Nope
RRR
Thor: Love and Thunder
Top Gun: Maverick
***Look out for All Quiet on the Western Front and maybe Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio.
Over the past week, I posted deep dives into 6 major categories: Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies. If you missed them, you can access them right there:
The numbers for those competitions are reflected below (therefore you won’t see Previous Rankings for them). For every other race, these are projections updated for the first time since October 23rd.
There’s less than two months left in the calendar year! We’re entering crunch time and here’s my state of the races as we sprint to the finish…
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once
3. Babylon
4. Women Talking
5. The Banshees of Inisherin
6. Top Gun: Maverick
7. Tár
8. The Whale
9. Triangle of Sadness
10. She Said
Other Possibilities:
11. All Quiet on the Western Front
12. Decision to Leave
13. Avatar: The Way of Water
14. Elvis
15. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1 . Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon
3. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once
4. Sarah Polley, Women Talking
5. Todd Field, Tár
Other Possibilities:
6. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front
7. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave
8. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
9. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water
10. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tár
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
3. Danielle Deadwyler, Till
4. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
5. Margot Robbie, Babylon
Other Possibilities:
6. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light
7. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody
8. Viola Davis, The Woman King
9. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway
10. Rooney Mara, Women Talking
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale
2. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Austin Butler, Elvis
4. Bill Nighy, Living
5. Hugh Jackman, The Son
Other Possibilities:
6. Diego Calva, Babylon
7. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick
8. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection
9. Adam Driver, White Noise
10. Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1 . Claire Foy, Women Talking
2. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking
4. Hong Chau, The Whale
5. Carey Mulligan, She Said
Other Possibilities:
6. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once
7. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness
8. Nina Hoss, Tár
9. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
10. Jean Smart, Babylon
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1 . Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking
4. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
5. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans
7. Brad Pitt, Babylon
8. Mark Rylance, Bones & All
9. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness
10. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tár (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Babylon (PR: 6) (E)
7. Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Aftersun (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Broker (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Menu (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Armageddon Time
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Whale (PR: 2) (E)
3. She Said (PR: 3) (E)
4. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (E)
5. Living (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. White Noise (PR: 6) (E)
7. Bones & All (PR: 7) (E)
8. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 8) (E)
9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: Not Ranked)
10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Son
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)
2. Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wendell and Wild (PR: 3) (E)
4. Strange World (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Bad Guys (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Sea Beast (PR: 6) (-1)
8. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 8) (E)
9. Lightyear (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Minions: The Rise of Gru (PR: 9) (-1)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Decision to Leave (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Close (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bardo (PR: 4) (E)
5. Saint Omer (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Klondike (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Holy Spider (PR: 7) (E)
8. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 6) (-2)
9. EO (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Alcarras (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 1) (E)
2. Descendant (PR: 2) (E)
3. Navalny (PR: 3) (E)
4. All That Breathes (PR: 4) (E)
5. Last Flight Home (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fire of Love (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Territory (PR: 7) (E)
8. Moonage Daydream (PR: 8) (E)
9. Good Night Oppy (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sr. (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Aftershock
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Empire of Light (PR: 3) (-1)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bardo (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Tár
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)
4. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Woman King (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Living (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Corsage (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Babylon (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)
5. Women Talking (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Elvis (PR: 5) (-1)
7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Decision to Leave (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Tár
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Whale (PR: 1) (E)
2. Babylon (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Elvis (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The Batman (PR: 4) (E)
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-1)
7. X (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: 8) (E)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (-1)
10. The Woman King (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Babylon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Empire of Light (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Women Talking (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tár (PR: 6) (E)
7. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Bardo (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 8) (-1)
10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 10 (E)
Dropped Out:
The Batman
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: Not Ranked)
3. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 2) (-1)
4. “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red (PR: 3) (-1)
5. “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 4) (-2)
7. “Stand Up” from Till (PR: 7) (E)
8. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 5) (-3)
9. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“On My Way” from Marry Me
“At the Automat” from The Automat
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Elvis (PR: 2) (-2)
5. The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Empire of Light (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 9) (E)
10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bardo
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 7) (+3)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Batman (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Elvis (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Fabelmans (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Nope (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Tár
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Batman (PR: 6) (E)
7. RRR (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 5) (-3)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (E)
10. Good Night Oppy (PR: 10) (E)
That equates to these movies garnering these numbers in terms of nominations:
10 Nominations
Babylon
9 Nominations
The Fabelmans
8 Nominations
Everything Everywhere All at Once, Women Talking
7 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin
6 Nominations
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
5 Nominations
Top Gun: Maverick, The Whale
4 Nominations
Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, Tár
3 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front, She Said
2 Nominations
Empire of Light, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Living, Triangle of Sadness, Turning Red
1 Nomination
All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, The Bad Guys, Bardo, The Batman, Close, Decision to Leave, Descendant, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Last Flight Home, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Navalny, RRR, Saint Omer, The Son, Strange World, Till, The Woman King, Wendell and Wild
Elvis has left the top ten predicted nominees in my Best Picture rankings and it’s Park Chan-wook’s Decision to Leave back in the mix. The good news continues for Leave as it returns to #1 in International Feature Film over its close competitor All Quiet on the Western Front.
While the directing and lead acting derbies remain the same, there are changes in both supporting races. Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once) is back in Supporting Actress over Dolly de Leon (Triangle of Sadness). Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans) falls out of the Supporting Actor quintet with Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin) moving up.
Another picture increasing its nomination count is Living. I already had Bill Nighy in the Best Actor five and I’m now putting it in Adapted Screenplay while removing White Noise. Living also makes its debut in Costume Design for a total of three nods.
Later this week, I’ll have State of the Race detailed posts on the six major competitions (Picture, Director, the 4 acting contests).
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)
6. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Tár (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Whale (PR: 8) (E)
9. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Decision to Leave (PR: 14) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
11. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 11) (E)
12. She Said (PR: 12) (E)
13. Elvis (PR: 9) (-3)
14. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 15) (E)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Todd Field, Tár (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (E)
8. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (+1)
10. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tár (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 3) (E)
4. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)
5. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 6) (E)
7. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 7) (E)
8. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Rooney Mara, Women Talking (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (E)
2. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 9) (E)
10. Song Kang-ho, Broker (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 2) (E)
3. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 4) (E)
5. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dolly de Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Nina Hoss, Tár (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Thuso Mbedu, The Woman King
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)
5. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 8) (E)
9. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (+1)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tár (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Babylon (PR: 6) (E)
7. Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Armageddon Time (PR: 8) (E)
9. Broker (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Menu (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Empire of Light
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Whale (PR: 2) (E)
3. She Said (PR: 3) (E)
4. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (E)
5. Living (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. White Noise (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Bones and All (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 9) (+1)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Son (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Till
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1 . Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)
2. Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wendell and Wild (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Strange World (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Sea Beast (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Bad Guys (PR: 6) (-1)
8. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 8) (E)
9. Minions: The Rise of Gru (PR: 9) (E)
10. Lightyear (PR: 10) (E)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Decision to Leave (PR: 2) (+1)
2. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Close (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bardo (PR: 4) (E)
5. Saint Omer (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Holy Spider (PR: 7) (E)
8. Alcarras (PR: 8) (E)
9. Klondike (PR: 6) (-3)
10. EO (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Corsage
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1 . All the Beautyand the Bloodshed (PR: 1) (E)
2. Descendant (PR: 2) (E)
3. Navalny (PR: 3) (E)
4. All That Breathes (PR: 4) (E)
5. Fire of Love (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Last Flight Home (PR: 9) (+3)
7. The Territory (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Moonage Daydream (PR: 8) (E)
9. Good Night Oppy (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Aftershock (PR: 10) (E)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Empire of Light (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Bardo (PR: 4) (E)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Tár (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Emancipation
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)
4. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 4) (E)
5. Living (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Fabelmans (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Woman King (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Corsage (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Blonde
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Elvis (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tár (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Women Talking (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 9) (+1)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Decision to Leave (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bardo
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Whale (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Batman (PR: 4) (E)
5. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (E)
7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Woman King (PR: 7) (-2)
10. X (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Blonde
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Babylon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Empire of Light (PR: 3) (E)
4. Women Talking (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tár (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Batman (PR: Not Ranked)
10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Bardo
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 3) (+1)
3. “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red (PR: 2) (-1)
4.“Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (+1)
7. “Stand Up” from Till (PR: 5) (-2)
8. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 8) (E)
9. “On My Way” from Marry Me (PR: 9) (E)
10. “At the Automat” from The Automat (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Love Is Not Love” from Bros
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)
3. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 3) (E)
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Empire of Light (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 9) (E)
10. Bardo (PR: 5) (-5)
Dropped Out:
The Batman
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Batman (PR: 6) (+2)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Elvis (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 7) (E)
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Tár (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Nope (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Fabelmans
Bardo
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)
4. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Batman (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Black Panther : Wakanda Forever (PR: 7) (E)
8. RRR (PR: 8) (E)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Good Night Oppy (PR: 9) (-1)
And that equates to these pictures garnering these numbers of nominations:
10 Nominations
Babylon
9 Nominations
Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans
7 Nominations
Women Talking
6 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin
5 Nominations
Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick, The Whale
4 Nominations
Tár
3 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Living
2 Nominations
Bardo, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Decision to Leave, Empire of Light, Triangle of Sadness, Turning Red
1 Nomination
All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Close, Descendant, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Navalny, RRR, Saint Omer, She Said, The Son, Strange World, Tell It Like a Woman, Till, Wendell and Wild, Where the Crawdads Sing
On the bright side for Netflix, I have Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio at #1 in Animated Feature where it’s been perched all along. That would mean the streamer could nab its first victory ever in that race.
Now the bad news as my current Best Picture nominees leaves Netflix on the cutting room floor. In 2018, Roma was the first hopeful in the big dance. It was expected to win, but lost to Green Book. 2019 brought double nominees with The Irishman and Marriage Story. Same in 2020 with Mank and The Trial of the Chicago 7. And there were two contenders again last year in Don’t Look Up and The Power of the Dog (a frontrunner until CODA fever emerged).
I had All Quiet on the Western Front in the mix 11 days ago. Yet I’ve had a nagging feeling that another blockbuster not named Top Gun: Maverick will get in. So for the first time, Elvis is in the top ten. That moneymaker spot could also be filled with Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (from Netflix), Avatar: The Way of Water, or Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. Think could also be called the “Second Sequel” slot, I suppose.
Don’t be surprised if Netflix eventually gets back in. Quiet, the aforementioned Onion, Bardo, and Pinocchio are all viable (maybe even White Noise). For now, my BP hopefuls would mean a disappointing nomination morning for the streamer.
She Said received mostly positive notices when it was unveiled Thursday at the New York Film Festival. It could absolutely be a BP contender, but I’m got it just on the outside and feel more comfortable forecasting it as a lone screenplay nominee (I don’t love the current 76% RT meter for it). You’ll note I don’t have any of the cast in my top tens. Perhaps the eventual announcement of category placements could change that.
In other developments:
I’ve decided to move Babylon‘s Margot Robbie back in Best Actress instead of supporting (can we please get that placement announcement??). It means she’s back in and Olivia Colman (Empire of Light) is out.
Bill Nighy’s work in Living returns to Actor five with Diego Calva (Babylon) sliding into sixth position.
With Robbie returning to lead, Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness) is elevated to fifth in Supporting Actress.
My Supporting Actor dual nominee projections of Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan for The Banshees of Inisherin shifts to Paul Dano and Judd Hirsch for The Fabelmans. That means Hirsch rises while Keoghan falls.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (Previous Rank: 1) (E)
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Women Talking (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)
6. Tar (PR: 6) (E)
7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Whale (PR: 8) (E)
9. Elvis (PR: 13) (+4)
10. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 10) (-1)
12. She Said (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Decision to Leave (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Till
The Woman King
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)
5. Todd Field, Tar (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (-1)
9. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 9) (E)
10. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)
5. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting
Other Possibilities:
6. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 8) (E)
9. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Carey Mulligan, She Said
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (E)
2. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 2) (E)
3. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 4) (E)
5. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)
8. Song Kang-ho, Broker (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Will Smith, Emancipation
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 2) (E)
3. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (E)
7. Nina Hoss, Tar (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Thuso Mbedu, The Woman King (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Margot Robbie, Babylon (moved to Best Actress)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)
5. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jeremy Strong, Armageddon Time
Micheal Ward, Empire of Light
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tar (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Babylon (PR: 6) (E)
7. Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Armageddon Time (PR: 8) (E)
9. Empire of Light (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Menu (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Broker
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Whale (PR: 2) (E)
3. She Said (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 3) (-1)
5. White Noise (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Living (PR: 6) (E)
7. Till (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Bones and All (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Son (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)
2. Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)
3. Strange World (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wendell and Wild (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Bad Guys (PR: 8) (+2)
7. The Sea Beast (PR: 6) (-1)
8. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Minions: The Rise of Gru (PR: 9) (E)
10. Lightyear (PR: 10) (E)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 1) (E)
2. Decision to Leave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Close (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bardo (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Saint Omer (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Klondike (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Holy Spider (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Alcarras (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Corsage (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Descendant (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Navalny (PR: 3) (E)
4. All That Breathes (PR: 4) (E)
5. Fire of Love (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Territory (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Good Night Oppy (PR: 7) (E)
8. Moonage Daydream (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Last Flight Home (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Aftershock (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sr.
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Empire of Light (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bardo (PR: 5) (+1)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (E)
7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (E)
9. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (E)
10. Emancipation (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Batman
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)
4. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Corsage (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Woman King (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Living (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Blonde (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Amsterdam
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Babylon (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Women Talking (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Elvis (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tar (PR: 9) (+2)
8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Bardo (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Decision to Leave
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Whale (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Babylon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The Batman (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Woman King (PR: 10) (+3)
8. X (PR: 8) (E)
9. Blonde (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Amsterdam
Corsage
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Babylon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Empire of Light (PR: 3) (E)
4. Tar (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Women Talking (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Bardo (PR: 10) (+2)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Top Gun: Maverick
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 4) (+1)
4. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 3) (-1)
5. “Stand Up” from Till (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “This is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (+1)
8. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 7) (-1)
9. “On My Way” from Marry Me (PR: 6) (-3)
10. “Love Is Not Love” from Bros (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“I Ain’t Worried” from Top Gun: Maverick
“Heartbeat” from Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Bardo (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Everything Everything All at Once (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Empire of Light (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Batman (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. Babylon (PR: 4) (E)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Batman (PR: 6) (E)
7. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nope (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Fabelmans (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Bardo (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Thirteen Lives
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)
4. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Batman (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 8) (+1)
8. RRR (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Good Night Oppy (PR: 9) (E)
10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nope
That equates to these movies getting these numbers of nominations:
10 Nominations
Babylon
9 Nominations
The Fabelmans
8 Nominations
Everything Everywhere All at Once
7 Nominations
Women Talking
6 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis
5 Nominations
Tar, Top Gun: Maverick, The Whale
3 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, Bardo, Triangle of Sadness
2 Nominations
The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Empire of Light, Till, Turning Red
1 Nomination
All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Close, Corsage, Decision to Leave, Descendant, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Living, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Navalny, RRR, Saint Omer, She Said, The Son, Strange World, Tell It Like a Woman, Wendell and Wild, White Noise
In the past week, the biggest Oscar news was the announcement that Emancipation with Will Smith will debut in December and therefore be eligible for consideration. You can read my thoughts on that here:
As you’ll see below, Emancipation doesn’t make much of an impact anywhere in my estimates. However, I am putting Will Smith in at 10th for Best Actor. Part of that is the fairly weak field for lead actor (especially compared to Actress). Do I think Smith will get a nod? No, but it’s not entirely out of the question if his performance is critically hailed.
My BP lineup has one change with Triangle of Sadness back in the top ten over Decision to Leave.
In other developments:
Todd Field (Tar) returns to the directorial quintet and that removes Edward Berger for All Quiet on the Western Front.
While the Best Actress field remains the same, Danielle Deadwyler’s work in Till rises to 2nd place after rave notices at the New York Film Festival.
Brad Pitt (Babylon), who’s been subject to some bad press this week, falls out of my Supporting Actor five in favor of Ben Whishaw for Women Talking.
Babylon has also been taken out of my Original Screenplay selections with Tar being elevated.
There’s a new #1 in Documentary Feature with Descendant nabbing the slot over All the Beauty and the Bloodshed.
You can peruse all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Women Talking (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Babylon (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)
6. Tar (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Whale (PR: 8) (E)
9. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 11) (+2)
10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Decision to Leave (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Elvis (PR: 13) (E)
14. Till (PR: Not Ranked)
15. The Woman King (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Empire of Light
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)
5. Todd Field, Tar (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (E)
9. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 5) (+3)
3. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 6) (E)
7. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 9) (E)
10. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (E)
2. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)
8. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Song Kang-ho, Broker (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Will Smith, Emancipation (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 2) (E)
3. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 4) (E)
5. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everything All at Once (PR: 6) (E)
7. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Nina Hoss, Tar (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Thuso Mbedu, The Woman King (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Zoe Kazan, She Said
Sadie Sink, The Whale
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jeremy Strong, Armageddon Time (PR: 8) (E)
9. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Micheal Ward, Empire of Light (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (+1)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tar (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Babylon (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Armageddon Time (PR: 8) (E)
9. Empire of Light (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Broker (PR: 10 (E)
Dropped Out:
Bros
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Whale (PR: 2) (E)
3. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (+1)
4. White Noise (PR: 5) (+1)
5. She Said (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Living (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Bones and All (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (-1)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Till (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Son
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)
2. Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)
3. Strange World (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marcel the Shell with Shoes on (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wendell and Wild (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Sea Beast (PR: 7) (+1)
7. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Bad Guys (PR: 8) (E)
9. Minions: The Rise of Gru (PR: 9) (E)
10. Lightyear (PR: 10) (E)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 1) (E)
2. Decision to Leave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Close (PR: 3) (E)
4. Saint Omer (PR: 4) (E)
5. Bardo (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Holy Spider (PR: 6) (E)
7. Argetina, 1985 (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Klondike (PR: 8) (E)
9. Alcarras (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Corsage (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
EO
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Descendant (PR: 3) (+2)
2. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Navalny (PR: 2) (-1)
4. All That Breathes (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Territory (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fire of Love (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Good Night Oppy (PR: 7) (E)
8. Last Flight Home (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Moonage Daydream (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Sr. (PR: 10) (E)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Empire of Light (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (-1)
4. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 4) (E)
5. Bardo (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (E)
9. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Batman (PR: 10) (E)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Woman King (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (E)
7. Corsage (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Living (PR: 9) (E)
10. Amsterdam (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Elvis (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Women Talking (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Tar (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Decision to Leave (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Whale (PR: 1) (E)
2. Babylon (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Elvis (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Batman (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Amsterdam (PR: Not Ranked)
8. X (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Corsage (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Woman King (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Three Thousand Years of Longing
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Babylon (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Empire of Light (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Women Talking (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tar (PR: 5) (-1)
7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Bardo (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Batman
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 9) (+5)
5. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “On My Way” from Marry Me (PR: 4) (-2)
7. “New Body Rhuma” from White Noise (PR: 10) (+3)
8. “This is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (-2)
9. “I Ain’t Worried” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Heartbeat” from Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Vegas” from Elvis
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Black Panther : Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Elvis (PR: 2) (-2)
5. The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Empire of Light (PR: 6) (E)
7. Bardo (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: Not Ranked)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Batman (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Amsterdam
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. Babylon (PR: 4) (E)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Batman (PR: 6) (E)
7. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (E)
9. Nope (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Thirteen Lives (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Fabelmans
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)
4. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Batman (PR: 4) (-2)
7. RRR (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Good Night Oppy (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Nope (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
All Quiet on the Western Front
And that equates to these movies nabbing these numbers of nominations:
11 Nominations
Babylon
9 Nominations
The Fabelmans
8 Nominations
Everything Everywhere All at Once
7 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin, Women Talking
5 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front, Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick, The Whale
4 Nominations
Tar
3 Nominations
Avatar: The Way of Water, Empire of Light
2 Nominations
Bardo, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Triangle of Sadness, Turning Red
1 Nomination
All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, The Batman, Close, Decision to Leave, Descendant, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Navalny, RRR, Saint Omer, She Said, The Son, Till, Strange World, Tell It Like a Woman, The Territory, Wendell and Wild, Where the Crawdads Sing, White Noise, The Woman King
For the time being at least, I’m settling on Edward Berger’s antiwar epic All Quiet on the Western Front as Netflix’s strongest contender. It moves into my predicted BP hopefuls for the first time and that takes out Triangle of Sadness. Additionally, Berger is in the quintet for Director and it’s Park Chan-wook (Decision to Leave) that drops. The Quiet love shows up in International Feature Film where it moves to first place with Leave sliding to runner-up status.
We also have a category placement change to discuss. While nothing has been announced, it makes a lot of sense for Babylon‘s Margot Robbie to move to Supporting Actress after Michelle Williams (rather inexplicably) elevated to Best Actress for The Fabelmans. Robbie moves there (hopefully Paramount lets us know soon) so Danielle Deadwyler is back in Best Actress. Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once) is now on the outside looking in for supporting.
There’s a change in Actor as I’m finally putting Diego Calva (Babylon) in over Bill Nighy (Living). In Original Screenplay, The Fabelmans is now #1 over Everything.
The New York Film Festival starts this weekend. By the time of my next update, we will know what the real prospects are for Till with She Said soon to follow.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)
6. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tar (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Whale (PR: 7) (-1)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Decision to Leave (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (-1)
12. The Woman King (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Elvis (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Empire of Light (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
She Said
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)
5. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Todd Field, Tar (PR: 6) (E)
7. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (E)
10. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Darren Aronofsky, The Whale
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Margot Robbie, Babylon – moved to Supporting Actress
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (E)
2. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)
8. Song Kang-ho, Broker (PR: 8) (E)
9. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 9) (E)
10. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jeremy Pope, The Inspection
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 2) (E)
3. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Best Actress
4. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Thuso Mbedu, The Woman King (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Zoe Kazan, She Said (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sadie Sink, The Whale (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Vanessa Kirby, The Son
Jean Smart, Babylon
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 6) (E)
7. Judd Hirsch, Women Talking (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jeremy Strong, Armageddon Time (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Micheal Ward, Empire of Light (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Babylon (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tar (PR: 6) (E)
7. Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Armageddon Time (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Bros (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Broker (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Empire of Light
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Whale (PR: 2) (E)
3. She Said (PR: 3) (E)
4. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (E)
5. White Noise (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)
8. Till (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Living (PR: 6) (-3)
10. The Son (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)
2. Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)
3. Strange World (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wendell and Wild (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Sea Beast (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Bad Guys (PR: 8) (E)
9. Minions: The Rise of Gru (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Lightyear (PR: 9) (-1)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Decision to Leave (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Close (PR: 3) (E)
4. Saint Omer (PR: 4) (E)
5. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Holy Spider (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Bardo (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Klondike (PR: Not Ranked)
9. EO (PR: 9) (E)
10. Alcarras (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Eight Mountains
Plan 75
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 1) (E)
2. Navalny (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Descendant (PR: 2) (-1)
4. All That Breathes (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Fire of Love (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Territory (PR: 6) (E)
7. Good Night Oppy (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Moonage Daydream (PR: 8) (E)
9. Last Flight Home (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Sr. (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Black Ice
Riotsville, U.S.A.
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Empire of Light (PR: 2) (-1)
4. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Bardo (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Batman (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tar
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)
4. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Woman King (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (E)
7. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Corsage (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Living (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Amsterdam (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Three Thousand Years of Longing
Don’t Worry Darling
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)
5. Elvis (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Women Talking (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Tar (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Whale (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Babylon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Batman (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The Woman King (PR: 7) (E)
8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: 8) (-1)
10. X (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 2) (+1)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Women Talking (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Empire of Light (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Tar (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (-1)
8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Batman (PR: 9) (E)
10. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Top Gun: Maverick
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 3) (E)
4. “On My Way” from Marry Me (PR: 5) (+1)
5. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (E)
7. “Vegas” from Elvis (PR: Not Ranked)
8. “I Ain’t Worried” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 7) (-2)
10. “New Body Rhuma” from White Noise (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
“Good Tonight” from The Bad Guys
“Paper Airplanes” from A Jazzman’s Blues
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)
3. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Empire of Light (PR: 5) (-1)
7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (+1)
8. Amsterdam (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Batman (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Bardo
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. Babylon (PR: 4) (E)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Batman (PR: 6) (E)
7. Nope (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Fabelmans (PR: 10) (E)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Batman (PR: 4) (E)
5. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Nope (PR: 8) (+1)
8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (-3)
10. RRR (PR: 9) (-1)
And that equates to these movies getting these numbers of nominations:
13 Nominations
Babylon
9 Nominations
The Fabelmans
8 Nominations
Everything Everywhere All at Once
6 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Women Talking
5 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front, Top Gun: Maverick, The Whale
4 Nominations
Avatar: The Way of Water
3 Nominations
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Empire of Light, Tar
2 Nominations
Decision to Leave, Turning Red
1 Nomination
All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Argentina, 1985, The Batman, Close, Descendant, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Marry Me, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Navalny, Saint Omer, She Said, The Son, Strangle World, Tell It Like a Woman, Till, Triangle of Sadness, Wendell and Wild, Where the Crawdads Sing, White Noise, The Woman King
So I wasn’t planning to do a new predictions post just five days after the last one, but a lot can change in five days! When I made those previous picks, I was sitting in my hotel room in Toronto getting ready to return to United States. On this inaugural trip to the festival, I saw awards hopefuls including The Fabelmans, Women Talking, The Whale, The Banshees of Inisherin, Empire of Light, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery and The Son.
The headline this afternoon is a shocker that’s resulted in universal confusion. Michelle Williams, considered to be a lock for Supporting Actress, will be campaigned for in lead Actress by Universal Pictures. I am doubly surprised because, having seen the film, there would be zero controversy with her in the supporting field. In fact, I would say it is more of a supporting performance than lead. Furthermore, a Williams victory seemed likely in the race she won’t be in. Best Actress is an entirely different ball game with Cate Blanchett (Tar), Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Margot Robbie (Babylon), and Olivia Colman (Empire of Light). Nevertheless I’ll slot Williams in third place and she knocks out Danielle Deadwyler for the as yet unseen Till. There’s another dynamic potentially at play. Two years ago, Lakeith Stanfield was being touted in Best Actor for Judas and the Black Messiah. The Academy went ahead and nominated him in Supporting Actor. Don’t discount the idea that this could happen with Williams though I won’t predict that.
This Williams news isn’t the only unexpected developments of the week. RRR, RMN, and Godland were all ignored by their native countries as their submissions to the International Feature Film derby. There’s reporting that India’s RRR, in particular, will get a spirited campaign for Best Picture and tech races. Yet IFF was probably its strongest chance to show up on Oscar night.
In other developments:
An alteration in BP as I’m putting Park Chan-wook’s Decision to Leave in over Empire of Light. I’ll be honest – this was basically a coin flip between Decision to Leave or All Quiet on the Western Front. This also results in Chan-wook making the director cut over Todd Field for Tar.
Due to the Williams news, Claire Foy is the new #1 in Supporting Actress for Women Talking. Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere) also joins the quintet.
In Supporting Actor, Brad Pitt (Babylon) is back in the mix due to the removal of Micheal Ward for Empire of Light.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 7) (+2)
6. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Whale (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Tar (PR: 8) (E)
9. Decision to Leave (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 13) (+2)
12. She Said (PR: 12) (E)
13. Empire of Light (PR: 9) (-4)
14. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 14) (E)
15. Elvis (PR: 15) (E)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Todd Field, Tar (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting Actress
4. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Florence Pugh, The Wonder
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (E)
2. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 4) (E)
5. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)
8. Song Kang-ho, Broker (PR: 8) (E)
9. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Vanessa Kirby, The Son (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Jean Smart, Babylon (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Zoe Kazan, She Said (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Sadie Sink, The Whale (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (moved to Best Actress)
Nina Hoss, Tar
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Micheal Ward, Empire of Light (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Babylon (PR: 4) (E)
5. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tar (PR: 6) (E)
7. Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Bros (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Broker (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Empire of Light (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Armageddon Time
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Whale (PR: 2) (E)
3. She Said (PR: 3) (E)
4. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 5) (+1)
5. White Noise (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Living (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Son (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Till (PR: Not Ranked)
10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Bones and All
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)
2. Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wendell and Wild (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 4) (E)
5. Strange World (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Sea Beast (PR: 5) (-1)
7. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Bad Guys (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Lightyear (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Minions: The Rise of Gru (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Apollo 10 1/2: A Space Age Childhood
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Decision to Leave (PR: 1) (E)
2. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 2) (E)
3. Close (PR: 3) (E)
4. Saint Omer (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Eight Mountains (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bardo (PR: 6) (E)
7. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Holy Spider (PR: 5) (-3)
9. EO (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Plan 75 (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
RMN
RRR
Best Documentary Feature:
1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 1) (E)
2. Descendant (PR: 2) (E)
3. Navalny (PR: 3) (E)
4. Fire of Love (PR: 4) (E)
5. Last Flight Home (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Territory (PR: 6) (E)
7. Black Ice (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Moonage Daydream (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Good Night Oppy (PR: 9) (E)
10. Riotsville, U.S.A. (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
All That Breathes
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Empire of Light (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bardo (PR: 6) (E)
7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Tar (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Whale
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Woman King (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Corsage (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Don’t Worry Darling (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Northman
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Babylon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)
5. Women Talking (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Elvis (PR: 6) (E)
7. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 8) (E)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Tar (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Triangle of Sadness
Decision to Leave
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Whale (PR: 1) (E)
2. Babylon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Batman (PR: 4) (E)
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Woman King (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: Not Ranked)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 10) (+1)
10. X (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Blonde
The Fabelmans
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Babylon (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Empire of Light (PR: 3) (E)
4. Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 8) (+2)
7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Tar (PR: 5) (-3)
9. The Batman (PR: 9) (E)
10. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (-3)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 5) (+2)
4. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 4) (E)
5. “On My Way” from Marry Me (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (-3)
7. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 7) (E)
8. “New Body Rhuma” from White Noise (PR: 8) (E)
9. “Good Tonight” from The Bad Guys (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Paper Airplanes” from A Jazzman’s Blues (PR: 10) (E)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 4) (E)
5. Empire of Light (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (E)
7. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 9) (+2)
8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Batman (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Bardo (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elvis (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Babylon (PR: 3) (-1)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Batman (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Nope (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Fabelmans (PR: 10) (E)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Batman (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (E)
7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Nope (PR: 10) (+2)
9. RRR (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (-1)
And this equates to these pictures garnering the following numbers of nominations:
12 Nominations
Babylon
9 Nominations
The Fabelmans
8 Nominations
Everything Everywhere All at Once
7 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin, Women Talking
6 Nominations
Top Gun: Maverick
5 Nominations
Elvis, The Whale
4 Nominations
Avatar: The Way of Water, Empire of Light
3 Nominations
Decision to Leave
2 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Tar, Triangle of Sadness, Turning Red
1 Nomination
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Close, Descendant, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, The Eight Mountains, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Last Flight Home, Living, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Marry Me, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Navalny, Saint Omer, She Said, The Son, Strange World, Tell It Like a Woman, Wendell and Wild, Where the Crawdads Sing, White Noise, The Woman King
As the Toronto Film Festival draws to a close, we have some significant updates since I did my last predictions 11 days ago!
And you may notice that, for the first time, I’m including all categories covering feature films. It’s the initial peek at what pics I believe will lead the nominations. The answer is Babylon (11) followed closely by The Fabelmans (10) followed closely by Everything Everywhere All at Once (9).
I’ve also made the shift of whittling 25 BP picks down to 15 possibilities and the other big races from 15 to 10.
I will point out that some categories (particularly Original Song) are in their infancy as far as knowing the contenders.
One year ago, my projections in mid-September yielded eight of the eventual 10 BP nominees and 3 of the 5 Directing hopefuls. For Best Actress – it was 4 of 5 and 3 of 5 for Actor. For Supporting Actress – 2/5, but Supporting Actor (somehow) was 0 for 5.
Let’s talk changes:
In Best Picture, I’m putting Empire of Light back in and removing The Son. You’ll send a trend there as The Son drew divided reactions in Venice and Toronto. It could still contend in more races than just Hugh Jackman in Actor, but for now, I’ve got it nabbing that sole nod.
Todd Field (Tar) is in the directing quintet over Ruben Ostlund for Triangle of Sadness.
Surprisingly enough, Actress and Actor remain the same.
Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) crashes the Supporting Actress party with Vanessa Kirby (The Son) dropping.
I’ve put Micheal Ward back in Supporting Actor (I elevated him to lead recently). He’s in the final five along with a bit of an upset selection in Barry Keoghan for The Banshees of Inisherin. Zen McGrath (The Son) and Woody Harrelson (Triangle of Sadness) fall out.
Original Screenplay remains the same but Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery is in Adapted Screenplay over (you guessed it) The Son.
You can peruse all the movement below and my inaugural take on the other derbies!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Whale (PR: 7) (+2)
6. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Tar (PR: 8) (E)
9. Empire of Light (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Decision to Leave (PR: 12) (+1)
12. She Said (PR: 13) (+1)
13. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 20) (+6)
15. Elvis (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Son
Avatar: The Way of Water
White Noise
Bones and All
Armageddon Time
Till
Broker
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Living
Bardo
The Greatest Beer Run Ever
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)
5. Todd Field, Tar (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Florian Zeller, The Son
James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water
Sam Mendes, Empire of Light
Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick
Noah Baumbach, White Noise
Baz Luhrmann, Elvis
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 4) (E)
5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 6) (E)
7. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 12) (+5)
8. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 8) (E)
9. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Florence Pugh, The Wonder (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Carey Mulligan, She Said
Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Taylor Russell, Bones and All
Tang Wei, Decision to Leave
Jessica Chastain, The Good Nurse
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (E)
2. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Song King-ho, Broker (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Micheal Ward, Empire of Light (moved to Supporting)
Timothee Chalamet, Bones and All
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans
Kelvin Harrison, Jr., Chevalier
Park Hae-il, Decision to Leave
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 9) (+5)
5. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Vanessa Kirby, The Son (PR: 3) (-4)
8. Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Sadie Sink, The Whale (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Nina Hoss, Tar (PR: 15) (+5)
Dropped Out:
Laura Dern, The Son
Jean Smart, Babylon
Samantha Morton, She Said
Zoe Kazan, She Said
Dakota Johnson, Cha Cha Real Smooth
Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Micheal Ward, Empire of Light (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Best Actor)
5. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 6) (E)
7. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 7) (E)
8. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (-5)
Dropped Out:
Zen McGrath, The Son
Tom Hanks, Elvis
Anthony Hopkins, The Son
Mark Strong, Tar
Seth Rogen, The Fabelmans
Ralph Fiennes, The Menu
Russell Crowe, The Greatest Beer Run Ever
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Babylon (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tar (PR: 6) (E)
7. Decision to Leave (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Empire of Light (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Armageddon Time (PR: 9) (E)
10. Bros (PR: 11) (+1)
Dropped Out:
Broker
Aftersun
Cha Cha Real Smooth
Bardo
The Menu
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Women Talking (PR: 2) (+1)
2. The Whale (PR: 3) (+1)
3. She Said (PR: 4) (+1)
4. White Noise (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Son (PR: 1) (-5)
7. Living (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Bones and All (PR: 7) (-2)
10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Till
The Lost King
The Greatest Beer Run Ever
The Wonder
Elvis
The Good Nurse
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
2. Turning Red
3. Strange World
4. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
5. The Sea Beast
Other Possibilities:
6. Wendell and Wild
7. The Bad Guys
8. Lightyear
9. My Father’s Dragon
10. Apollo 10 1/2: A Space Age Childhood
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Decision to Leave
2. All Quiet on the Western Front
3. Close
4. Saint Omer
5. Holy Spider
Other Possibilities:
6. Bardo
7. RMN
8. RRR
9. Plan 75
10. Argentina, 1985
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
2. Descendant
3. Navalny
4. Fire of Love
5. Last Flight Home
Other Possibilities:
6. The Territory
7. Moonage Daydream
8. Riotsville, U.S.A.
9. Good Night Oppy
10. All That Breathes
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon
2. Empire of Light
3. The Fabelmans
4. All Quiet on the Western Front
5. Top Gun: Maverick
Other Possibilities:
6. Bardo
7. Avatar: The Way of Water
8. The Banshees of Inisherin
9. The Whale
10. Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon
2. Elvis
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
4. The Fabelmans
5. The Woman King
Other Possibilities:
6. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
7. Everything Everywhere All at Once
8. Three Thousand Years of Longing
9. The Northman
10. Corsage
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once
2. Babylon
3. Top Gun: Maverick
4. The Fabelmans
5. Women Talking
Other Possibilities:
6. Elvis
7. Tar
8. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
9. Triangle of Sadness
10. Decision to Leave
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Whale
2. Babylon
3. Elvis
4. The Batman
5. Everything Everywhere All at Once
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
7. Blonde
8. The Woman King
9. The Fabelmans
10. All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon
2. The Fabelmans
3. Empire of Light
4. Women Talking
5. Tar
Other Possibilities:
6. The Banshees of Inisherin
7. Top Gun: Maverick
8. Avatar: The Way of Water
9. The Batman
10. All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Original Song
1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick
2. “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red
3. “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once
4. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing
5. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman
Other Possibilities:
6. “On My Way” from Marry Me
7. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR
8. “New Body Rhuma” from White Noise
9. “Good Tonight” from The Bad Guys
10. “Paper Airplanes” from A Jazzman’s Blues
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon
2. The Fabelmans
3. Elvis
4. Avatar: The Way of Water
5. Empire of Light
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
7. Everything Everywhere All at Once
8. Bardo
9. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
10. The Batman
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick
2. Avatar: The Way of Water
3. Babylon
4. Elvis
5. The Batman
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
7. All Quiet on the Western Front
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once
9. Nope
10. The Fabelmans
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water
2. Top Gun: Maverick
3. The Batman
4. Everything Everywhere All at Once
5. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
7. RRR
8. All Quiet on the Western Front
9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
10. Nope
And that equates to this very first rundown of how many nominations I am projecting for each picture:
11 Nominations
Babylon
10 Nominations
The Fabelmans’
9 Nominations
Everything Everywhere All at Once
7 Nominations
Women Talking
6 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin, Empire of Light, Top Gun: Maverick
5 Nominations
Elvis, The Whale
4 Nominations
Tar
3 Nominations
Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman
2 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front, Triangle of Sadness, Turning Red
1 Nomination
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Close, Decision to Leave, Descendant, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Holy Spider, Last Flight Home, Living, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Navalny, Saint Omer, The Sea Beast, She Said, The Son, Strange World, Tell It Like a Woman, Till, Where the Crawdads Sing, White Noise, The Woman King
Blogger’s Update (02/23): The theater count for Studio 666 has been announced and it’s higher than expected with just over 2300 screens. I’m upping my estimate a bit from $1.4 million to $2.1 million.
As February closes out and we await the massive release of The Batman to begin March, the top five may look the same this weekend. There are two new titles: the musical romantic drama Cyrano with Peter Dinklage and the Foo Fighters led horror comedy Studio 666. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
I’ve got both of the newcomers posting debuts in the $2 million range- $1.8 million for Cyrano and $2.1 million for 666. That would put both outside of the top five.
As for the holdovers, the post President’s Day weekend usually sees rather large drops for those returnees. After as its terrific debut (more on that below), Uncharted could be headed for a slide in the 50 percent range with Dog in the low to mid 40s. Spider-Man: No Way Home, Death on the Nile, and Jackass Forever should hold their spots in the 3-5 positions.
So as the Caped Crusader readies for his closeup and a nine figure start (my box office prediction for it will be up tomorrow), here’s how I see things happening this weekend:
1. Uncharted
Predicted Gross: $21.8 million
2. Dog
Predicted Gross: $8.4 million
3. Spider-Man: No Way Home
Predicted Gross: $6 million
4. Death on the Nile
Predicted Gross: $3.7 million
5. Jackass Forever
Predicted Gross: $2.8 million
Box Office Results (February 18-21)
It’s Tom Holland’s world and we’re just living in it as his adventure flick Uncharted with Mark Wahlberg dominated the four-day holiday frame with a much bigger than anticipated $51.3 million. That blows away my forecast of $33.7 million and shows that its lead’s star power extends beyond him in the Spidey suit. Expect a sequel to be fast tracked.
Channing Tatum received a welcome return after a lengthy starring role absence as his directorial debut Dog took in $17.3 million, lapping my $13.3 million estimate. With an A- Cinemascore grade, this could perform well over subsequent weeks as Tatum has The Lost City lined up with Sandra Bullock a month from now.
That other franchise of Holland’s – Spider-Man: No Way Home – was third with $9.2 million as it swung past my $7.3 million take. At $772 million, it’s perched at #3 domestically all-time.
Death on the Nile stalled in its sophomore frame and fell from first to fourth with $7.7 million (I went higher at $9.8 million). The underwhelming two week total is $26 million.
Jackass Forever was fifth with $6 million (I said $5.7 million) for a three week tally of $47 million.
Finally, Jennifer Lopez’s rom com Marry Me was sixth in its second go-round with $4.3 million compared to my more generous $6 million prediction. It’s made $17 million.
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