We have arrived at my post Golden Globe and Critics Choice Awards predictions for the Oscars! This week’s update comes with two significant #1 switches… starting with Best Picture.
For months, I’ve had Belfast positioned in the top spot. That changes today. Don’t get me wrong: the Kenneth Branagh coming-of-age drama could win Picture, Director, Supporting Actress and Actor, and Original Screenplay. However, for the first time, it’s not listed at #1 in any of those categories.
The #1 Picture slot could’ve gone to West Side Story, but I’m going with The Power of the Dog as it continues to nab critics prizes and place high atop best of lists. In Supporting Actress, I’m swapping Belfast‘s Caitriona Balfe for Ariana DeBose in West Side.
There’s other alterations in Picture and Supporting Actress. I’m putting Don’t Look Up back in the ten BP hopefuls despite its mixed reviews. That’s to the detriment of Tick Tick… Boom!
I’m also elevating Ruth Negga (Passing) in supporting over Rita Moreno (West Side Story).
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (Previous Ranking: 2) (+1)
2. Belfast (PR: 1) (-1)
3. West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)
4. Dune (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (-1)
6. King Richard (PR: 6) (E)
7. CODA (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Don’t Look Up (PR: 12) (+4)
9. Nightmare Alley (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
11. Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Being the Ricardos (PR: 13) (+1)
13. The Lost Daughter (PR: Not Ranked)
14. A Hero (PR: 14) (E)
15. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 11) (-4)
Dropped Out:
House of Gucci
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 4) (E)
5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)
7. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Asghar Farhadi, A Hero (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Reinaldo Marcus Green, King Richard
Julia Ducournau, Titane
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 6) (E)
7. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Emilia Jones, CODA (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Andrew Garfield, Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: 3) (E)
4. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (E)
5. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 6) (E)
7. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 7) (E)
8. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 8) (E)
9. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Clifton Collins Jr., Jockey
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 6) (E)
7. Rita Moreno, West Side Story (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Judi Dench, Belfast (PR: 9) (E)
10. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 6) (E)
7. Mike Faist, West Side Story (PR: 7) (E)
8. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Jason Isaacs, Mass (PR: 9) (E)
10. J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Richard Jenkins, The Humans
Jon Bernthal, King Richard
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. King Richard (PR: 3) (E)
4. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Being the Ricardos (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Mass (PR: 8) (+1)
8. A Hero (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Parallel Mothers (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The French Dispatch (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Worst Person in the World
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Lost Daughter (PR: 3) (E)
4. CODA (PR: 4) (E)
5. Dune (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Drive My Car (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Passing (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Humans
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Encanto (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flee (PR: 2) (E)
3. Luca (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Belle (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Raya and the Last Dragon (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Summit of the Gods (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Vivo (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ron’s Gone Wrong (PR: 9) (E)
10. Where Is Anne Frank (PR: 10) (E)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. A Hero (PR: 1) (E)
2. Drive My Car (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 3) (E)
4. Flee (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Hand of God (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Compartment No. 6 (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Titane (PR: 6) (-1)
8. I’m Your Man (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Memoria (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Good Boss (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Prayers for the Stolen
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Flee (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Rescue (PR: 2) (E)
3. Summer of Soul (PR: 3) (E)
4. Procession (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The First Wave (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Attica (PR: 4) (-2)
7. President (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Velvet Underground (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Lost Leonardo (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Becoming Cousteau (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Ascension
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Power of the Dog (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Belfast (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Spencer (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The French Dispatch (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (E)
10. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 10) (E)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cruella (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Dune (PR: 3) (E)
4. House of Gucci (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spencer (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Cyrano (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The French Dispatch (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Last Night in Soho (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Belfast (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The Power of the Dog (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. King Richard (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Being the Ricardos (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Nightmare Alley (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 2) (+1)
2. House of Gucci (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3) (E)
4. Cruella (PR: 4) (E)
5. Spencer (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Being the Ricardos (PR: 8) (+1)
8. West Side Story (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Cyrano (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Last Duel (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Spencer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (+3)
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The French Dispatch (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Cyrano (PR: 8) (E)
9. Being the Ricardos (PR: 10) (+1)
10. King Richard (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Be Alive” from King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto (PR: 5) (+2)
4. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (PR: 3) (-1)
5. “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Here I Am” from Respect (PR: 10) (+4)
7. “Guns Go Bang” from The Harder They Fall (PR: Not Ranked)
8. “So May We Start” from Annette (PR: 7) (-1)
9. “Believe” from The Rescue (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Beyond the Shore” from CODA (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
“Every Letter” from Cyrano
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (E)
5. Being the Ricardos (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Belfast (PR: 8) (+2)
7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Cyrano (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Spencer (PR: 6) (-3)
10. The Power of the Dog (PR: 10) (E)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. No Time to Die (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4) (-3)
8. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (-1)
9. A Quiet Place Part II (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Last Duel (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Don’t Look Up
King Richard
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 2) (E)
3. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Godzilla vs. Kong (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (PR: 6) (E)
7. Finch (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Free Guy (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Eternals (PR: 3) (-6)
10. No Time to Die (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Suicide Squad
My current estimates mean these movies nabbing these numbers in terms of nominations:
11 Nominations
Dune
10 Nominations
Belfast
9 Nominations
The Power of the Dog, West Side Story
6 Nominations
Don’t Look Up
5 Nominations
King Richard
4 Nominations
Licorice Pizza, The Tragedy of Macbeth
3 Nominations
Being the Ricardos, CODA, Flee, House of Gucci, Nightmare Alley, Spencer
2 Nominations
Cruella, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The Lost Daughter, No Time to Die, Tick Tick… Boom!
1 Nomination
Belle, Cyrano, Drive My Car, The First Wave, The French Dispatch, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Hand of God, A Hero, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Passing, Procession, The Rescue, Spider-Man: No Way Home, Summer of Soul, The Worst Person in the World
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 