2021 Oscar Predictions: December 7th Edition

***Blogger’s Update (12/07): As I was putting the finishing touches on this update, the Don’t Look Up review embargo ended and its RT score as of this writing is 58%. That means it’s falling out in multiple races including Best Picture. Tick Tick Boom! is the beneficiary in the big race. A Hero rises in Original Screenplay.

For quite some time, I’ve had a nagging feeling that an early year festival favorite might manage to make its way to the ten Best Picture nominees. That trio of pictures is CODA, Flee, and Mass. I have held off putting any in the final predicted ten, but that changes today with CODA. It’s a feel good entry that could get enough support to get in. By doing so, it knocks out Being the Ricardos. The Lucy and Desi tale from Aaron Sorkin had its official review embargo lift today and the Rotten Tomatoes score is 67%. The showbiz theme and Sorkin devotees could still sneak it in, but it drops from Picture and Original Screenplay for now. Nicole Kidman stays in Actress, but falls from 2nd to 4th place.

Other changes in the main races:

    • Lady Gaga (House of Gucci) is back in the Actress fold and I’ve finally taken out Jennifer Hudson for Respect. 
    • Troy Kotsur gets the CODA bump in Supporting Actor to the detriment of Richard Jenkins (The Humans).
    • Ricardos being out of Original Screenplay helps out C’Mon C’Mon. 
    • In Adapted Screenplay, it’s CODA in and Nightmare Alley out. I am continuing to keep Nightmare in the BP bunch yet it’s tenuous in 10th position.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Belfast (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)

2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)

3. West Side Story (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Licorice Pizza (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Dune (PR: 5) (E)

6. King Richard (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 10) (+3)

8. CODA (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Tick Tick Boom! (PR: 13) (+4)

10. Nightmare Alley (PR: 8) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

11. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (-5)

13. Being the Ricardos (PR: 9) (-4)

14. A Hero (PR: Not Ranked)

15. House of Gucci (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

The Lost Daughter

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 2) (E)

3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 3) (E)

4. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)

7. Asghar Farhadi, A Hero (PR: 10) (+2)

8. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 8) (-1)

9. Renaldo Marcus Green, King Richard (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Julia Ducournau, Titane (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up

Pablo Larrain, Spencer

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 3) (E)

4. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 6) (E)

7. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 8) (E)

9. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (E)

10. Emilia Jones, CODA (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 1) (E)

2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)

3. Andrew Garfield, Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: 3) (E)

4. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (E)

5. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 6) (E)

7. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 3) (E)

4. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Rita Moreno, West Side Story (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities: 

6. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 6) (E)

7. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Judi Dench, Belfast (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 6) (E)

7. Mike Faist, West Side Story (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Jason Isaacs, Mass (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Jon Bernthal, King Richard (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (E)

2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)

3. King Richard (PR: 5) (+2)

4. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 4) (+2)

5. A Hero (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Being the Ricardos (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Mass (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The French Dispatch (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Parallel Mothers

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)

2. West Side Story (PR: 4) (+2)

3. The Lost Daughter (PR: 2) (-1)

4. CODA (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Dune (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 3) (-3)

7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Humans (PR: 8) (E)

9. Passing (PR: 9) (E)

10. Drive My Car (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Tick Tick Boom! 

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Encanto (PR: 1) (E)

2. Flee (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (PR: 3) (E)

4. Luca (PR: 4) (E)

5. Belle (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Summit of the Gods (PR: 6) (E)

7. Raya and the Last Dragon (PR: 7) (E)

8. Vivo (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Ron’s Gone Wrong (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Where Is Anne Frank (PR: 9) (-1)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. A Hero (PR: 1) (E)

2. Drive My Car (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Flee (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Hand of God (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Titane (PR: 6) (E)

7. I’m Your Man (PR: 7) (E)

8. Compartment No. 6 (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Good Boss (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Prayers for the Stolen (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Flee (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Rescue (PR: 2) (E)

3. Summer of Soul (PR: 3) (E)

4. Attica (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Procession (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Lost Leonardo (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The First Wave (PR: 7) (E)

8. President (PR: 8) (E)

9. Ascension (PR: 9) (E)

10. Becoming Cousteau (PR: 10) (E)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Belfast (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. West Side Story (PR: 6) (E)

7. The French Dispatch (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Spencer (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (E)

10. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Cyrano

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cruella (PR: 1) (E)

2. House of Gucci (PR: 2) (E)

3. Dune (PR: 4) (+1)

4. West Side Story (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Spencer (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)

7. Cyrano (PR: 7) (E)

8. The French Dispatch (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Last Night in Soho (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Being the Ricardos

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)

3. West Side Story (PR: 3) (E))

4. Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (+1)

5. King Richard (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Power of the Dog (PR: 6) (E)

7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Nightmare Alley (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tick Tick Boom! (PR: 9) (E)

10. Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

House of Gucci

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. House of Gucci (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3) (E)

4. Cruella (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Spencer (PR: 4) (-2)

7. West Side Story (PR: 7) (E)

8. Being the Ricardos (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Last Duel (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Cyrano (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Suicide Squad

Licorice Pizza

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)

3. Spencer (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (E)

5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The French Dispatch (PR: 6) (E)

7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (E)

8. Cyrano (PR: 9) (+1)

9. King Richard (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Being the Ricardos (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Be Alive” from King Richard (PR: 1) (E)

2. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Every Letter” from Cyrano (PR: 4) (E)

5. “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (-1)

7. “So May We Start” from Annette (PR: 7) (E)

8. “Beyond the Shore” from CODA (PR: Not Ranked)

9. “Believe” from The Rescue (PR: 9) (E)

10. “Here I Am” from Respect (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

“The Anonymous Ones” from Dear Evan Hansen 

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (E)

3. West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)

4. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Spencer (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Cyrano (PR: 7) (E)

8. Belfast (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Power of the Dog (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

House of Gucci 

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)

3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)

4. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4) (E)

5. Tick Tick Boom! (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. No Time to Die (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (-2)

8. A Quiet Place Part II (PR: 9) (+2)

9. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (-2)

10. King Richard (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

The Last Duel

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 2) (E)

3. Eternals (PR: 3) (E)

4. Godzilla vs. Kong (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (PR: 6) (E)

7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Finch (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Free Guy (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Suicide Squad (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Nightmare Alley

And that shakes out to these movies garnering these numbers in nominations:

11 Nominations

Dune

10 Nominations

Belfast

9 Nominations

West Side Story

8 Nominations

The Power of the Dog

6 Nominations

King Richard, Nightmare Alley

5 Nominations

Licorice Pizza, The Tragedy of Macbeth

3 Nominations

CODA, Flee, House of Gucci, Spencer, Tick Tick Boom!

2 Nominations

Cruella, Cyrano, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, A Hero, The Lost Daughter

1 Nomination

Attica, Being the Ricardos, Belle, C’Mon C’Mon, Drive My Car, Eternals, The French Dispatch, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Hand of God, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, No Time to Die, Procession, The Rescue, Spider-Man: No Way Home, Summer of Soul, The Worst Person in the World

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

%d bloggers like this: