2020 Oscar Predictions: October 29th Edition

As October comes to a close, the Aretha Franklin biopic elected to shift its release date to August 2021. That takes it out of contention for this Oscar season. I have had Jennifer Hudson’s performance as the iconic singer in my top five for a couple of weeks. Her departure makes way for Michelle Pfeiffer in French Exit in the predicted group in a still crowded lead Actress field.

My shifts continue as, after putting Daniel Kaluuya’s work for Judas and the Black Messiah in the supporting category, I’m putting him back in Best Actor. Hopefully Warner Bros. will clear this up soon as the pic still doesn’t have a firm release date. He enters the top five to the detriment of Riz Ahmed in Sound of Metal.

His departure from Supporting Actor vaults Mark Rylance in The Trial of the Chicago 7 to first position. It’s worth mentioning that Netflix has confirmed that the sprawling cast for Aaron Sorkin’s historical drama will all be campaigned for in that race. I have also swapped out Kingsley Ben-Adir’s performance in One Night in Miami for his costar Leslie Odom, Jr. The changes continue as I’m now becoming more convinced that the late Chadwick Boseman will be a double nominee for both Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom in lead and for supporting with Da 5 Bloods. 

There’s also a switch in Supporting Actress as I’m taking out Saoirse Ronan (Ammonite) and replacing her with Ellen Burstyn for Pieces of a Woman. 

All these changes and more are below with my latest round of Thursday predictions!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)

4. News of the World (PR: 4)

5. One Night in Miami (PR: 5)

6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)

7. The Father (PR: 6)

8. Minari (PR: 9)

9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

10. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 13)

11. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)

12. Soul (PR: 11)

13. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 12)

14. The White Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

15. The Midnight Sky (PR: 15)

Dropped Out:

Respect

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)

2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)

4. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 3)

5. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 6)

7. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 9)

8. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)

9. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)

10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 3)

4. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 5)

5. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 7)

7. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 8)

8. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 9)

9. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 10)

10. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jennifer Hudson, Respect

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 1)

2. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)

3. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 3)

4. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 4)

5. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Supporting Actor)

Other Possibilities:

6. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 5)

7. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 7)

8. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 6)

9. Tom Holland, Cherry (PR: 8)

10. Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Stanley Tucci, Supernova

Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)

2. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 2)

3. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 3)

4. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 4)

5. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 5)

7. Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari (PR: 9)

8. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Natasha Lyonne, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Nicole Kidman, The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Mary J. Blige, Respect

Audra McDonald, Respect

Swankie, Nomadland

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)

2. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)

3. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 6)

4. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 3)

7. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 10)

8. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)

9. Charles Dance, Mank (PR: 7)

10. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (moved to Best Actor)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)

3. Minari (PR: 3)

4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)

5. Soul (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. On the Rocks (PR: 7)

7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)

8. Promising Young Woman (PR: 8)

9. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 9)

10. The-Forty-Year-Old-Version (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Palm Springs

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Nomadland (PR: 1)

2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)

3. The Father (PR: 3)

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)

5. News of the World (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 7)

7. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 6)

8. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)

9. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

First Cow

Next Goal Wins 

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Soul (PR: 1)

2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)

3. Onward (PR: 4)

4. Over the Moon (PR: 3)

5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Connected (PR: 6)

7. The Willoughbys (PR: 7)

8. Lupin III: The First (PR: 9)

9. Bombay Rose (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Calamity, a Childhood of Martha Jane Cannary (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Earwig and the Witch

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 1)

2. Crip Camp (PR: 3)

3. Totally Under Control (PR: 2)

4. Boys State (PR: 4)

5. The Dissident (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 6)

7. Time (PR: Not Ranked)

8. 76 Days (PR: 8)

9. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 7)

10. MLK/FBI (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

I Am Greta

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 1)

2. New Order (PR: 3)

3. Another Round (PR: 2)

4. The Life Ahead (PR: 7)

5. Night of the Kings (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Disciple (PR: 6)

7. My Little Sister (PR: 4)

8. Wife of a Spy (PR: 10)

9. A Sun (PR: 9)

10. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 8)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. News of the World (PR: 3)

4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)

5. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tenet (PR: 6)

7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)

8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)

9. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)

10. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

One Night in Miami

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)

3. Emma (PR: 3)

4. Coming 2 America (PR: 4)

5. Mulan (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Death on the Nile (PR: 9)

7. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 7)

8. Rebecca (PR: 6)

9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)

10. News of the World (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Prom

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 2)

3. Nomadland (PR: 4)

4. News of the World (PR: 3)

5. The Father (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tenet (PR: 9)

7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR 10)

8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)

9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)

10. One Night in Miami (PR: 8)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Birds of Prey (PR: 2)

3. Coming 2 America (PR: 5)

4. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mank (PR: 4)

7. Mulan (PR: 7)

8. Emma (PR: 3)

9. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Respect

The Personal History of David Copperfield

Death on the Nile

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Soul (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 4)

3. News of the World (PR: 2)

4. Tenet (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Minari (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)

7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 9)

8. One Night in Miami (PR: 8)

9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)

10. Ammonite (PR: 7)

Dropped Out:

Over the Moon

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom 

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. ” Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)

2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 3)

3. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 2)

4. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)

5. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 5)

7. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 8)

8. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 9)

9. “Never Break” from Giving Voice (PR: 7)

10. “Love Myself” from The High Note (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Carried Me with You” from Onward

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. Mulan (PR: 4)

3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 3)

4. Rebecca (PR: 7)

5. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. News of the World (PR: 2)

7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)

8. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Emma

Death on the Nile 

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tenet (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 4)

3. Sound of Metal (PR: 3)

4. Soul (PR: 5)

5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. News of the World (PR: 2)

7. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Greyhound (PR: 7)

9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)

10. The Invisible Man (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Respect

The Prom

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tenet (PR: 1)

2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)

3. Mulan (PR: 4)

4. Birds of Prey (PR: 8)

5. The Invisible Man (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Greyhound (PR: 3)

7. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 6)

8. The Call of the Wild (PR: 7)

9. Dolittle (PR: 9)

10. The Old Guard (PR: 10)

And this equates to the following pictures getting these numbers in terms of nominations:

11 Nominations

Mank

8 Nominations

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

7 Nominations

News of the World, The Trial of the Chicago 7

6 Nominations

Nomadland

5 Nominations

Da 5 Bloods, The Father, One Night in Miami

4 Nominations

Soul

3 Nominations

Hillbilly Elegy, Minari, Mulan, Tenet

2 Nominations

Birds of Prey, Coming 2 America, The Life Ahead, The Midnight Sky, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman

1 Nomination

All In: The Fight for Democracy, Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Boys State, Crip Camp, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, Emma, French Exit, The Invisible Man, Judas and the Black Messiah, New Order, Night of the Kings, On the Rocks, Onward, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Rebecca, Sound of Metal, Wolfwalkers

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