Back at it again with my first 2018 predictions for the Oscars! We are just three weeks away from the reveal of the nominations. On Sunday, a large awards precursor will occur when the Golden Globes air…
Here’s the major developments this week –
- For the first time, I’m switching from a predicted nine pictures being nominated to eight. Why? Well, part of it is selfish. I feel rather confident about the eight features predicted. The nine (or ten) spot could be a mix of Darkest Hour, Phantom Thread, The Big Sick, or Mudbound. Perhaps one or two of them sneak in. For now, they’re all out.
- Speaking of The Big Sick, I’ve finally put it in the Original Screenplay predictions, which leaves out The Post.
While there’s no changes in the acting races, let’s see how the next three weeks play out. For now, my initial 2018 estimates…
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 3)
3. The Post (PR: 2)
4. The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
5. Lady Bird (PR: 4)
6. The Florida Project (PR: 8)
7. Get Out (PR: 6)
8. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
9. Darkest Hour (PR: 10)
10. Phantom Thread (PR: 9)
11. Mudbound (PR: 11)
12. The Big Sick (PR: 13)
13. I, Tonya (PR: 12)
14. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 15)
15. Wonder Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
All the Money in the World
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 4)
4. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (PR: 3)
5. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (PR: 8)
7. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 7)
8. Jordan Peele, Get Out (PR: 6)
9. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 9)
10. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)
3. Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)
5. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 6)
7. Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out (PR: 7)
8. Christian Bale, Hostiles (PR: 9)
9. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 8)
10. Robert Pattinson, Good Time (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 3)
3. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 4)
4. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 2)
5. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 6)
7. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 7)
8. Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World (PR: 9)
9. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)
2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
3. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)
5. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 8)
7. Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World (PR: 6)
8. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 7)
9. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 9)
10. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Mark Rylance, Dunkirk
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 1)
2. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 2)
3. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 3)
4. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 5)
5. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)
7. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread (PR: 6)
8. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 8)
9. Bria Vinaite, The Florida Project (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip
Lois Smith, Marjorie Prime
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)
2. Molly’s Game (PR: 2)
3. Mudbound (PR: 3)
4. The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)
5. Wonder (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 7)
7. Wonderstruck (PR: 6)
8. All the Money in the World (PR: 8)
9. Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (PR: 10)
10. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Beguiled
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
2. Lady Bird (PR: 1)
3. Get Out (PR: 3)
4. The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
5. The Big Sick (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Post (PR: 4)
7. The Florida Project (PR: 8)
8. Phantom Thread (PR: 7)
9. I, Tonya (PR: 9)
10. Darkest Hour (PR: 10)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Coco (PR: 1)
2. The Breadwinner (PR: 2)
3. Loving Vincent (PR: 3)
4. Cars 3 (PR: 5)
5. The Girl Without Hands (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The LEGO Batman Movie (PR: 6)
7. Ferdinand (PR: 9)
8. Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (PR: 8)
9. The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales (PR: 7)
10. Despicable Me 3 (PR: 10)
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Foxtrot (PR: 1)
2. Loveless (PR: 4)
3. A Fantastic Woman (PR: 3)
4. The Insult (PR: 6)
5. The Square (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities:
6. In the Fade (PR: 5)
7. The Wound (PR: 7)
8. Felicite (PR: 8)
9. On Body and Soul (PR: 9)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane (PR: 1)
2. Faces Places (PR: 2)
3. City of Ghosts (PR: 5)
4. Strong Island (PR: 7)
5. Long Strange Trip (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Icarus (PR: 3)
7. Last Men in Aleppo (PR: Not Ranked)
8. LA 92 (PR: 4)
9. Chasing Coral (PR: 9)
10. Ex Libris – The New York Public Library (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Human Flow
An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
3. The Post (PR: 2)
4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)
5. I, Tonya (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Baby Driver (PR: 6)
7. Lady Bird (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 7)
9. Get Out (PR: 8)
10. Darkest Hour (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
4. The Post (PR: 3)
5. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonderstruck (PR: 7)
7. Mudbound (PR: 6)
8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 9)
9. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 8)
10. Hostiles (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Lady Bird
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. Dunkirk (PR: 3)
4. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)
5. Downsizing (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: 5)
7. The Post (PR: 7)
8. Darkest Hour (PR: 6)
9. Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
10. The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Phantom Thread (PR: 1)
2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
4. The Greatest Showman (PR: 3)
5. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: 9)
7. The Beguiled (PR: 5)
8. The Post (PR: 7)
9. Darkest Hour (PR: 6)
10. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Blade Runner 2049
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Wonder (PR: 2)
3. Bright (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
4. I, Tonya (PR: 3)
5. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 4)
6. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 5)
7. Ghost in the Shell (PR: 7)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)
2. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)
4. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
5. Dunkirk (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Okja (PR: 7)
7. Kong: Skull Island (PR: 8)
8. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 6)
9. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets (PR: 9)
10. Alien: Covenant (PR: 10)
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)
4. The Shape of Water (PR: 7)
5. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Baby Driver (PR: 4)
7. Wonder Woman (PR: 6)
8. Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Coco (PR: 10)
10. Spider-Man: Homecoming (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Darkest Hour
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. Baby Driver (PR: 3)
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 4)
5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Shape of Water (PR: 8)
7. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 6)
8. Coco (PR: 10)
9. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 7)
10. Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Darkest Hour
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
2. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
3. Phantom Thread (PR: 3)
4. The Post (PR: 4)
5. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)
7. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 9)
8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 6)
9. Wonderstruck (PR: 7)
10. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 10)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall (PR: 1)
2. “Remember Me” from Coco (PR: 2)
3. “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)
4. “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit (PR: 4)
5. “Mighty River” from Mudbound (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast (PR: 3)
7. “The Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name (PR: 9)
8. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker (PR: 6)
9. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria (PR: 7)
10. “The Star” from The Star (PR: 10)
And that leaves the following breakdown of nominations for each picture:
12 Nominations
The Shape of Water
9 Nominations
Dunkirk
7 Nominations
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, The Post
5 Nominations
Lady Bird, Blade Runner 2049
4 Nominations
Call Me by Your Name, Darkest Hour
3 Nominations
Phantom Thread, I, Tonya, Mudbound, The Greatest Showman, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
2 Nominations
The Florida Project, Get Out, The Disaster Artist, The Big Sick, Downsizing, Wonder, Coco, Beauty and the Beast, War for the Planet of the Apes
1 Nomination
Molly’s Game, Victoria and Abdul, Bright, Baby Driver, Marshall, Detroit, The Breadwinner, Loving Vincent, Cars 3, The Girl Without Hands, Foxtrot, Loveless, A Fantastic Woman, The Insult, The Square, Jane, Faces Places, City of Ghosts, Strong Island, Long Strange Trip
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