I’m back at it again with my post Turkey Day Oscar predictions. The winner of this particular week is Phantom Thread, which has held screenings. While reviews are under strict embargo until next week, there is some positive word emanating from the Twitterverse. It’s buzz could certainly change once official reviews are released, but for now I’ve got it in Best Picture for the first time and that means The Florida Project has been taken out. Additionally, Phantom has gone from an estimated four nods last week to seven today.
Steven Spielberg’s The Post is also gaining traction even though official reviews aren’t yet out. It’s doubled my predicted nomination count from 4 to 8 this week.
If there’s a loser this week, it’s Darkest Hour. I had it at 10 nominations last week and now I have it at 6.
Some other developments:
Best Director has two newbies: Spielberg and Greta Gerwig for Lady Bird. That means Joe Wright (Darkest Hour) and Dee Rees (Mudbound) are currently out.
In Best Actor, I’ve removed Andrew Garfield (Breathe) in favor of James Franco (The Disaster Artist).
Changes in both Supporting races as I’ve put Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me by Your Name) in and taken Mark Rylance (Dunkirk) out. In Supporting Actress, I’ve vaulted Lesley Manville’s (there’s buzz) work in Phantom Thread in, therefore removing Kristin Scott Thomas in Darkest Hour.
Here’s how I’ve got it all playing out!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)
4. Lady Bird (PR: 7)
5. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
6. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
7. The Post (PR: 8)
8. Mudbound (PR: 5)
9. Phantom Thread (PR: 12)
Other Possibilities:
10. The Florida Project (PR: 7)
11. Get Out (PR: 10)
12. I, Tonya (PR: 11)
13. Detroit (PR: 14)
14. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 15)
15. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 13)
Best Director
1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)
4. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (PR: 6)
5. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 5)
7. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
8. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 8)
9. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Jordan Peele, Get Out (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Sean Baker, The Florida Project
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)
3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 4)
4. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 3)
5. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 6)
7. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 5)
8. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 7)
9. Jeremy Renner, Wind River (PR: 10)
10. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)
2. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 2)
3. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 3)
4. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 4)
5. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 7)
7. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 8)
8. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 6)
9. Vicky Krieps, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
10. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 9)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
2. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)
3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
5. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 5)
7. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)
8. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 9)
9. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 8)
10. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actress
1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 1)
2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 2)
3. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread (PR: Not Ranked)
4. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 3)
5. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 6)
7. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 10)
8. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 7)
9. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: 5)
10. Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Claire Foy, Breathe
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)
2. Mudbound (PR: 2)
3. Molly’s Game (PR: 3)
4. The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)
5. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Last Flag Flying (PR: 6)
7. Wonder (PR: 10)
8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 7)
9. First, They Killed My Father (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Beguiled (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Stronger
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)
2. Lady Bird (PR: 3)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
4. Get Out (PR: 4)
5. The Post (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. I, Tonya (PR: 9)
7. The Big Sick (PR: 7)
8. The Florida Project (PR: 6)
9. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)
10. Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Coco (PR: 1)
2. Loving Vincent (PR: 3)
3. The Breadwinner (PR: 2)
4. Cars 3 (PR: 5)
5. Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The LEGO Batman Movie (PR: 6)
7. Ferdinand (PR: 7)
8. Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie (PR: 8)
9. Despicable Me 3 (PR: 10)
10. The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Girl Without Hands
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. BPM (Beats Per Minute) (PR: 1)
2. In the Fade (PR: 2)
3. Foxtrot (PR: 5)
4. First, They Killed My Father (PR: 3)
5. The Square (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Fantastic Woman (PR: 6)
7. Loveless (PR: 7)
8. The Divine Order (PR: 9)
9. The Insult (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Happy End (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Tom of Finland
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane (PR: 2)
2. Cries from Syria (PR: 1)
3. Icarus (PR: 3)
4. City of Ghosts (PR: 4)
5. Long Strange Trip (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Step (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Risk (PR: 7)
8. Strong Island (PR: 5)
9. Faces Places (PR: 10)
10. The Final Year (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Kedi
Joan Didion: The Center Will Not Hold
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)
4. The Post (PR: 5)
5. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. I, Tonya (PR: 7)
7. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 8)
8. Lady Bird (PR: 6)
9. Phantom Thread (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Detroit (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Get Out
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. The Post (PR: 6)
5. Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Phantom Thread (PR: 7)
7. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 10)
8. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)
9. Lady Bird (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Mudbound (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Detroit
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 3)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)
3. Dunkirk (PR: 2)
4. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 5)
5. Phantom Thread (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Darkest Hour (PR: 6)
7. The Post (PR: 8)
8. Wonderstruck (PR: 7)
9. The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)
10. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wonder Wheel
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Phantom Thread (PR: 1)
2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 6)
4. The Post (PR: 7)
5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 9)
7. Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
8. The Beguiled (PR: 3)
9. Wonder Wheel (PR: 8)
10. Wonderstruck (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Murder on the Orient Express
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)
3. Phantom Thread (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
4. I, Tonya (PR: 7)
5. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
6. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)
7. Wonder (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Thor: Ragnarok (PR: 10)
9. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 6)
10. It (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)
4. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 4)
5. Dunkirk (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spider-Man: Homecoming (PR: 6)
7. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 7)
8. Wonder Woman (PR: 9)
9. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 8)
10. Thor: Ragnarok (PR: 10)
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
4. Baby Driver (PR: 6)
5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 7)
7. Wonder Woman (PR: 10)
8. Transformers: The Last Knight (PR: 5)
9. Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Beauty and the Beast (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Spider-Man: Homecoming
Coco
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 4)
4. Baby Driver (PR: 3)
5. The Shape of Water (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Beauty and the Beast (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Transformers: The Last Knight (PR: 8)
8. Detroit (PR: 7)
9. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)
10. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Darkest Hour
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 3)
2. Phantom Thread (PR: 7)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)
4. The Post (PR: 5)
5. Darkest Hour (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonderstruck (PR: 4)
7. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 6)
8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 8)
9. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Detroit
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Remember Me” from Coco (PR: 6)
2. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall (PR: 1)
3. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria (PR: 5)
4. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)
5. “The Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit (PR: 3)
7. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker (PR: 4)
8. “Truth to Power” from An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power (PR: 8)
9. “Come Alive” from The Greatest Showman (PR: 7)
10. “The Promise” from The Promise (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
“Jump” from Step
And that tallies up the following nominations for each film:
13 Nominations
The Shape of Water
9 Nominations
Dunkirk
8 Nominations
The Post
7 Nominations
Phantom Thread
6 Nominations
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Call Me by Your Name, Darkest Hour
5 Nominations
Lady Bird, Blade Runner 2049
4 Nominations
Beauty and the Beast
3 Nominations
Mudbound, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
2 Nominations
The Disaster Artist, I, Tonya, Coco, Cries from Syria, Baby Driver
1 Nomination
Stronger, The Florida Project, Novitiate, Molly’s Game, Wonderstruck, Get Out, Loving Vincent, The Breadwinner, Cars 3, Birdboy: The Forgotten Children, BPM (Beats Per Minute), In the Fade, Foxtrot, First, They Killed My Father, The Square, Jane, Icarus, City of Ghosts, Long Strange Trip, The Greatest Showman, War for the Planet of the Apes, Marshall
I’ll be back at it next Monday with updated predictions!
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