Back at it again with my weekly Oscar predictions and in the last week, precursors such as the National Board of Review and New York and L.A. film critics have weighed in with their awards.
Here’s a snapshot of the significant changes this week:
- The Florida Project replaces Mudbound in my predicted nine. There’s a decent chance the Dee Rees Netfix drama gets back in, but this is the first time I’ve had it on the outside looking in.
- The Post vaults to the #2 position in Best Picture behind Dunkirk as Lady Bird flies to #3.
- Tom Hanks in The Post jumps over Jake Gyllenhaal in Stronger for the fifth slot in Actor.
- Two changes in the Supporting races as Mark Rylance (Dunkirk) jumps back in by replacing Michael Shannon (The Shape of Water). In Supporting Actress, it’s Octavia Spencer (Water) getting in with Melissa Leo (Novitiate) dropping out the top 5 for the first time.
- Phantom Thread vaults into the top 5 in the jam packed Original Screenplay race, taking The Shape of Water out.
You can read them all below and we’ll see what changes a week from today…
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. The Post (PR: 7)
3. Lady Bird (PR: 4)
4. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 3)
6. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
7. Phantom Thread (PR: 9)
8. Darkest Hour (PR: 6)
9. The Florida Project (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
10. Mudbound (PR: 8)
11. Get Out (PR: 11)
12. I, Tonya (PR: 12)
13. Detroit (PR: 13)
14. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 15)
15. The Disaster Artist (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Battle of the Sexes
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (PR: 4)
4. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 5)
5. Martin McDonagh, Three Bilboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 8)
7. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 9)
8. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 6)
9. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 7)
10. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)
3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 5)
5. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 4)
7. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 10)
8. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 7)
9. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 8)
10. Robert Pattinson, Good Time (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jeremy Renner, Wind River
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 3)
2. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 4)
3. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)
4. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 2)
5. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 6)
7. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 8)
8. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 7)
9. Vicky Krieps, Phantom Thread (PR: 9)
10. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 2)
2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)
3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
5. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
7. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)
8. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 9)
9. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 8)
10. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 1)
2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 2)
3. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread (PR: 3)
4. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 5)
5. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 4)
7. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 6)
8. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: 9)
9. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 8)
10. Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)
2. The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)
3. Mudbound (PR: 2)
4. Molly’s Game (PR: 3)
5. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Last Flag Flying (PR: 6)
7. Wonder (PR: 7)
8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)
9. The Beguiled (PR: 10)
10. First, They Killed My Father (PR: 9)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)
2. Lady Bird (PR: 2)
3. Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
4. The Post (PR: 5)
5. Get Out (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
7. The Florida Project (PR: 8)
8. I, Tonya (PR: 6)
9. The Big Sick (PR: 7)
10. Darkest Hour (PR: 9)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Coco (PR: 1)
2. Loving Vincent (PR: 2)
3. The Breadwinner (PR: 3)
4. Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (PR: 5)
5. Cars 3 (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The LEGO Batman Movie (PR: 6)
7. The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales (PR: 10)
8. Ferdinand (PR: 7)
9. Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie (PR: 8)
10. In this Corner of the World (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Despicable Me 3
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. BPM (Beats Per Minute) (PR: 1)
2. Foxtrot (PR: 3)
3. First, They Killed My Father (PR: 4)
4. In the Fade (PR: 2)
5. The Insult (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Fantastic Woman (PR: 6)
7. The Square (PR: 5)
8. Loveless (PR: 7)
9. Thelma (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Divine Order (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Happy End
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane (PR: 1)
2. Cries from Syria (PR: 2)
3. City of Ghosts (PR: 4)
4. Icarus (PR: 3)
5. Faces Places (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Strong Island (PR: 8)
7. Long Strange Trip (PR: 5)
8. Risk (PR: 7)
9. One of Us (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Kedi (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Step
The Final Year
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. The Post (PR: 4)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 3)
5. Lady Bird (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. I, Tonya (PR: 6)
7. Phantom Thread (PR: 9)
8. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)
9. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 7)
10. Detroit (PR: 10)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. The Post (PR: 4)
5. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonderstruck (PR: 8)
7. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 7)
8. Mudbound (PR: 10)
9. Lady Bird (PR: 9)
10. Call Me by Your Name (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Phantom Thread – not eligible due to director being the film’s cinematographer
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 3)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)
4. Phantom Thread (PR: 5)
5. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Darkest Hour (PR: 6)
7. The Post (PR: 7)
8. Wonderstruck (PR: 8)
9. The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)
10. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Phantom Thread (PR: 1)
2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. The Post (PR: 4)
5. Darkest Hour (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)
7. The Beguiled (PR: 8)
8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 6)
9. Wonder Wheel (PR: 9)
10. Wonderstruck (PR: 10)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
4. The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
5. Phantom Thread (PR: 3)
6. I, Tonya (PR: 4)
7. The Greatest Showman (PR: 6)
8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Wonder (PR: 7)
10. It (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Thor: Ragnarok
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 4)
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)
5. Dunkirk (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 7)
7. Spider-Man: Homecoming (PR: 6)
8. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 9)
9. Wonder Woman (PR: 8)
10. Thor: Ragnarok (PR: 10)
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 5)
4. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 6)
5. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Baby Driver (PR: 4)
7. Wonder Woman (PR: 7)
8. The Post (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Greatest Showman (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Detroit (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Transformers: The Last Knight
Beauty and the Beast
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. Baby Driver (PR: 4)
4. The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)
5. Detroit (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)
7. The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
8. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 10)
9. The Post (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 6)
Dropped Out:
Transformers: The Last Knight
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
2. Phantom Thread (PR: 2)
3. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
4. The Post (PR: 4)
5. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonderstruck (PR: 6)
7. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 8)
8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 10)
9. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 7)
10. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 9)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Remember Me” from Coco (PR: 1)
2. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall (PR: 2)
3. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria (PR: 3)
4. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)
5. “The Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker (PR: 7)
7. “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit (PR: 6)
8. “Truth to Power” from An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power (PR: 8)
9. “Come Alive” from The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)
10. “The Promise” from The Promise (PR: 10)
And that gives us the nomination numbers breakdown:
11 Nominations
Dunkirk, The Shape of Water
9 Nominations
The Post
7 Nominations
Phantom Thread
6 Nominations
Lady Bird, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Call Me by Your Name, Darkest Hour
5 Nominations
Blade Runner 2049, Beauty and the Beast
2 Nominations
The Florida Project, The Disaster Artist, I, Tonya, Mudbound, Coco, Cries from Syria, War for the Planet of the Apes, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
1 Nomination
Molly’s Game, Wonderstruck, Get Out, Loving Vincent, The Breadwinner, Birdboy: The Forgotten Children, Cars 3, BPM (Beats Per Minute), Foxtrot, First, They Killed My Father, In the Fade, The Insult, Jane, City of Ghosts, Icarus, Faces Places, Baby Driver, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, The Greatest Showman, Detroit, Marshall.
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 