2020 Oscar Predictions: November 21st Edition

We have new #1’s in three of the four acting derbies in my weekly Oscar prediction updates! Let’s break it down:

  • The reviews for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom have gone out of their way to praise the work of Chadwick Boseman. Best Actor now appears to be a race between the late performer and Anthony Hopkins in The Father. I have had Hopkins listed in first place for months at this point, but this changes today. That said, this is a competition that could come down to the wire.
  • In Best Actress, I have kept Viola Davis atop the list. However, while critics have lauded her in the title role of Ma Rainey, Vanessa Kirby’s work in Pieces of a Woman seems to gathering buzz. I thought about putting her in the pole position and we’ll see how this plays out in the coming weeks.
  • Ironically, the placement of Boseman at #1 in Best Actor drops him from 1st to 6th in Supporting Actor for Da 5 Bloods. This currently puts Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7) on top for the first time in a seemingly wide open field. I have also dropped David Strathairn (Nomadland) from the five. Additionally, while I am waiting for Warner Bros to confirm, I am putting Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah) back in this field as opposed to lead. So it’s him and Bill Murray (On the Rocks) back in the fold.
  • Last week, the poor reviews for Hillbilly Elegy caused me to take Glenn Close from #1 to #4. Like Supporting Actor, this race looks like anyone’s for the taking. I am elevating the veteran actress back to 1st as I could envision her overdue factor overtaking the bad critical reaction to the film itself. Also I’ve put Helena Zengel (News of the World) back in over Yuh-Jung Youn (Minari).

There’s also a change in Best Director with Florian Zeller (The Father) in for the first time over Lee Isaac Chung (Minari). Finally, there’s some release date news. Amazon Prime has moved Coming 2 America from December 2020 to March 2021. That takes it out of contention (where it could have played in Costume Design and Makeup and Hairstyling). And Warner Bros confirmed that Wonder Woman 1984 will receive a Christmas Day HBO Max streaming premiere. I don’t yet have it in the final five, but it could show up in Visual Effects.

Let’s get to it!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. Mank (PR: 3)

4. One Night in Miami (PR: 4)

5. The Father (PR: 5)

6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)

7. Minari (PR: 6)

8. News of the World (PR: 8)

9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

10. Soul (PR: 10)

11. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 11)

12. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 12)

13. The Midnight Sky (PR: 14)

14. The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)

15. First Cow (PR: 15)

Dropped Out:

The White Tiger

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)

2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)

4. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 4)

5. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)

7. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 5)

8. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 7)

9. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)

10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 3)

3. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)

4. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 5)

5. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 7)

7. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)

8. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: 10)

9. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 6)

10. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 8)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)

2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 1)

3. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 3)

4. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)

5. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 6)

7. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 7)

8. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 9)

9. Colin Firth, Supernova (PR: 10)

10. Tom Holland, Cherry (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (moved to Supporting)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 4)

2. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 1)

3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 2)

4. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 3)

5. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari (PR: 5)

7. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 6)

8. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 8)

9. Natasha Lyonne, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)

10. Nicole Kidman, The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Swankie, Nomadland

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)

2. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Best Actor)

3. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 2)

4. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 6)

5. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 1)

7. Stanley Tucci, Supernova (PR: 8)

8. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 5)

9. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)

10. Shia LaBeouf, Pieces of a Woman (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah

Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 2)

3. Minari (PR: 3)

4. Soul (PR: 4)

5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)

7. Promising Young Woman (PR: 8)

8. On the Rocks (PR: 7)

9. Sound of Metal (PR: 10)

10. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 9)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Nomadland (PR: 1)

2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)

3. The Father (PR: 3)

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)

5. News of the World (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 7)

7. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 6)

8. First Cow (PR: 9)

9. The Midnight Sky (PR: 10)

10. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The White Tiger

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Soul (PR: 1)

2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)

3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)

4. Onward (PR: 4)

5. Connected (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)

7. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 7)

8. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)

9. Bombay Rose (PR: 10)

10. Lupin III: The First (PR: 9)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Totally Under Control (PR: 1)

2. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 2)

3. Crip Camp (PR: 3)

4. Time (PR: 4)

5. The Dissident (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 6)

7. Boys State (PR: 7)

8. 76 Days (PR: 9)

9. MLK/FBI (PR: 10)

10. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 8)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Another Round (PR: 3)

2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 1)

3. Night of the Kings (PR: 7)

4. The Life Ahead (PR: 4)

5. The Disciple (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. I’m No Longer Here (PR: Not Ranked)

7. My Little Sister (PR: 6)

8. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 8)

9. Atlantis (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Charlatan (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

New Order

True Mothers

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. News of the World (PR: 3)

4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)

5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tenet (PR: 6)

7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)

8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)

9. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)

10. One Night in Miami (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The United States vs. Billie Holiday

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)

3. Emma (PR: 3)

4. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 5)

5. Mulan (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rebecca (PR: 6)

7. News of the World (PR: 7)

8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Ammonite (PR: 10)

10. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Coming 2 America

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 2)

3. Nomadland (PR: 3)

4. The Father (PR: 4)

5. News of the World (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 10)

7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)

8. Tenet (PR: 8)

9. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)

10. One Night in Miami (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Minari

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 2)

3. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 4)

4. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 3)

5. Birds of Prey (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)

7. Mulan (PR: 5)

8. The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)

10. News of the World (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Coming 2 America

Emma

Ammonite

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Soul (PR: 2)

2. Mank (PR: 1)

3. News of the World (PR: 4)

4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 3)

5. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tenet (PR: 7)

7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)

8. Minari (PR: 5)

9. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 10)

10. Ammonite (PR: 9)

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)

2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)

3. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 3)

4. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)

5. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Wear Your Crown” from The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)

7. “Hear My Voice” from Miss Americana (PR: 7)

8. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 6)

9. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 10)

10. “Carried Me with You” from Onward (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Love Myself” from The High Note

“Never Break” from Giving Voice 

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. Mulan (PR: 3)

3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)

4. News of the World (PR: 8)

5. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Midnight Sky (PR: 9)

7. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 10)

8. Rebecca (PR: 5)

9. Emma (PR: 4)

10. The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Personal History of David Copperfield

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tenet (PR: 2)

2. Mank (PR: 1)

3. Soul (PR: 5)

4. Sound of Metal (PR: 3)

5. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)

7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)

8. News of the World (PR: 6)

9. Greyhound (PR: 7)

10. Da 5 Bloods (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Prom

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tenet (PR: 1)

2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)

3. The Invisible Man (PR: 4)

4. Greyhound (PR: 3)

5. Birds of Prey (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 7)

7. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Mulan (PR: 6)

9. The Call of the Wild (PR: 9)

10. Mank (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Dolittle 

And that breaks down to the following number of nominations for these pictures:

12 Nominations

Mank

10 Nominations

The Trial of the Chicago 7

8 Nominations

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

7 Nominations

News of the World

6 Nominations

The Father, Nomadland

5 Nominations

One Night in Miami

4 Nominations

Soul

3 Nominations

Da 5 Bloods, The Life Ahead, The Midnight Sky

2 Nominations

Birds of Prey, Hillbilly Elegy, Minari, Mulan, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Sound of Metal, Tenet

1 Nomination

All In: The Fight for Democracy, Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Connected, Crip Camp, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Disciple, The Dissident, Emma, French Exit, Greyhound, The Invisible Man, Judas and the Black Messiah, Night of the Kings, On the Rocks, Onward, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Time, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.