2020 Oscar Predictions: January 24th Edition

My latest round of Oscar estimates keeps my predicted number of Best Picture nominees at the full 10 – with a change. It’s News of the World back in and Promising Young Woman on the outside looking in.

In the other major categories, my picks remain the same with some movement in the rankings. Most notably, in the Supporting Actress field, I am putting Amanda Seyfried’s work in Mank back at #1 over Glenn Close in Hillbilly Elegy.

You can read all the developments below and I’ll be back at it next weekend!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. Mank (PR: 3)

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)

5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)

6. One Night in Miami (PR: 6)

7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)

8. The Father (PR: 8)

9. Minari (PR: 7)

10. News of the World (PR: 11)

Other Possibilities:

11. Promising Young Woman (PR: 10)

12. Sound of Metal (PR: 13)

13. Soul (PR: 12)

14. First Cow (PR: 14)

15. Malcolm & Marie (PR: 15)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 1)

2. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 2)

3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)

4. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)

5. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 7)

7. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 8)

8. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)

9. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)

10. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman (PR: 10)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)

4. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 3)

5. Zendaya, Malcolm & Marie (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 9)

7. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)

8. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 7)

9. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)

10. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 10)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 2)

3. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)

4. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 3)

5. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 6)

7. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 7)

8. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: Not Ranked)

9. John David Washington, Malcolm & Marie (PR: 10)

10. Ben Affleck, The Way Back (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah

Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 2)

2. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)

3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)

4. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 5)

5. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 6)

7. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 9)

8. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 7)

9. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Dominique Fishback, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Olivia Cooke, Sound of Metal

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)

2. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 3)

3. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 2)

4. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)

5. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)

7. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 8)

8. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 7)

9. Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)

10. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 4)

3. Promising Young Woman (PR: 2)

4. Minari (PR: 3)

5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)

7. Soul (PR: 6)

8. Sound of Metal (PR: 9)

9. Malcolm & Marie (PR: 8)

10. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 10)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Nomadland (PR: 1)

2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)

3. The Father (PR: 4)

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 3)

5. First Cow (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. News of the World (PR: 7)

7. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 6)

8. The White Tiger (PR: 8)

9. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 9)

10. French Exit (PR: 10)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Soul (PR: 1)

2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)

3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)

4. Onward (PR: 4)

5. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 7)

7. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)

8. A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (PR: 8)

9. Demon Slayer (PR: 10)

10. Trolls World Tour (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Mitchells vs. the Machines (formerly Connected)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Totally Under Control (PR: 3)

2. Time (PR: 1)

3. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 4)

4. The Dissident (PR: 2)

5. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Boys State (PR: 6)

7. Collective (PR: 7)

8. Crip Camp (PR: 8)

9. Welcome to Chechnya (PR: 9)

10. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 10)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Another Round (PR: 1)

2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 2)

3. Night of the Kings (PR: 3)

4. A Sun (PR: 6)

5. I’m No Longer Here (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dear Comrades! (PR: 5)

7. Collective (PR: 4)

8. My Little Sister (PR: 8)

9. Two of Us (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Notturno (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Never Gonna Snow Again 

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 2)

2. Nomadland (PR: 1)

3. News of the World (PR: 3)

4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)

5. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tenet (PR: 6)

7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)

8. Minari (PR: 7)

9. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

I’m Thinking of Ending Things

Malcolm & Marie

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 2)

3. Emma (PR: 4)

4. Mulan (PR: 3)

5. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. News of the World (PR: 5)

7. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 7)

8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)

9. The Glorias (PR: 9)

10. Ammonite (PR: 8)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 2)

3. Nomadland (PR: 3)

4. The Father (PR: 4)

5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. News of the World (PR: 7)

7. Tenet (PR: 9)

8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 10)

9. One Night in Miami (PR: 8)

10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)

3. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 6)

4. Mank (PR: 3)

5. Birds of Prey (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mulan (PR: 8)

7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)

8. Pinocchio (PR: 5)

9. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 7)

10. Emma (PR: 9)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Soul (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 2)

3. News of the World (PR: 3)

4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 5)

5. Minari (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tenet (PR: 8)

7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)

8. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 7)

9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)

10. Ammonite (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

One Night in Miami

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)

2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)

3. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)

4. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 3)

5. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 6)

7. “Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)

8. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 8)

9. “The Wuhan Flu” from Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 9)

10. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Wear Your Crown” from The Prom

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)

3. Emma (PR: 5)

4. News of the World (PR: 4)

5. Tenet (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mulan (PR: 3)

7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)

8. The Midnight Sky (PR: 6)

9. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 8)

10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sound of Metal (PR: 1)

2. Tenet (PR: 2)

3. Mank (PR: 3)

4. News of the World (PR: 6)

5. The Midnight Sky (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)

7. Soul (PR: 5)

8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)

9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)

10. Greyhound (PR: 10)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tenet (PR: 1)

2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)

3. The Invisible Man (PR: 4)

4. Greyhound (PR: 5)

5. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: 10)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mulan (PR: 3)

7. Birds of Prey (PR: 6)

8. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 7)

9. Mank (PR: 8)

10. The Call of the Wild (PR: 9)

And that equates to the following films garnering these numbers for nominations:

12 Nominations

Mank

7 Nominations

Da 5 Bloods, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

6 Nominations

The Father, Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7

5 Nominations

News of the World

4 Nominations

Minari, One Night in Miami

3 Nominations

Judas and the Black Messiah, The Midnight Sky, Sound of Metal, Tenet

2 Nominations

All In: The Fight for Democracy, Emma, Hillbilly Elegy, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Promising Young Woman, Soul

1 Nomination

Another Round, Birds of Prey, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, Earwig and the Witch, First Cow, Greyhound, I’m No Longer Here, The Invisible Man, The Life Ahead, Malcolm & Marie, Mulan, Night of the Kings, Onward, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Quo Vadis, Aida?, A Sun, Time, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers, Wonder Woman 1984

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