Yet another major precursor enters the fold tomorrow when the Screen Actors Guild nominations are announced. Unlike other awards shows, it’s wise to remember that this ceremony is solely voted upon by the thespians who make up SAG. That means no Director race.

More importantly, it means “Best Picture” does not exist. The big prize is Best Ensemble. That designation favors films with large casts. Let’s break down the five major categories with predictions and an alternate and wild card, shall we?

Best Ensemble

As mentioned, big casts help. That would seem to favor something like If Beale Street Could Talk with its sprawling one, as well as Black Panther and Crazy Rich Asians. Another pic fitting the bill is Vice. As long as the guild members saw it in time, I think it stands an excellent shot.

A Star Is Born is more of a question mark. While it could be looked at as a soft front-runner for Best Picture (along with Roma, which I don’t believe factors here), the actors garnering attention are Bradley Cooper, Lady Gaga, and Sam Elliot. While I believe they will be individually noticed, I’m questioning whether the picture itself is named here. The Favourite (even with it also being focused mostly on three actresses) likely has a better chance. There’s certainly other possibilities and they include BlacKkKlansman, Green Book, and Widows (though it’s seen its awards fortunes dwindle).

Predicted Nominees

Black Panther

Crazy Rich Asians

The Favourite

If Beale Street Could Talk

Vice

Alternate – A Star Is Born

Wild Card – Widows

Best Actor

The nominees for Actor here are a solid predictor for Oscar inclusion. In 2015 and 2017, four of the performers here went on to be honored by the Academy. In 2016, it was all five. I’m going with the 5 men I see as most likely to score an Oscar nod at this juncture – with a sneaking suspicion that Ryan Gosling for replace one of then.

Predicted Nominees

Christian Bale, Vice

Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

Ethan Hawke, First Reformed

Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

Alternate – Ryan Gosling, First Man

Wild Card – Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate

Best Actress

There’s not quite as much match with Oscar and SAG here – three in 2015 and 2016 and four last year. As has been discussed many times on this blog, Best Actress is packed in 2018. The potential for a “surprise nominee” here is very real. I feel the need to pick one and I’m going with Toni Collette in Hereditary over the more probable Academy nominee Emily Blunt in Mary Poppins Returns.

Predicted Nominees

Glenn Close, The Wife

Toni Collette, Hereditary

Olivia Colman, The Favourite

Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born

Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Alternate – Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns

Wild Card – Viola Davis, Widows

Best Supporting Actor

We had an outlier in 2015 when only two of the SAG nominees here got Oscar attention. For the past two years, it’s been four. If there’s a real shocker here, look out for names like Daniel Kaluuya (Widows) or Russell Hornsby (The Hate U Give). I’m not willing to be that bold with my picks though.

Predicted Nominees

Mahershala Ali, Green Book

Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy

Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman

Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born

Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Alternate – Sam Rockwell, Vice

Wild Card – Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther

Best Supporting Actress

The SAG/Oscar match was four in 2015, five in 2016, and three for 2017. I’m estimating the five performers here match last week’s Golden Globe nominations. If there’s a surprise, look for Thomasin McKenzie (Leave No Trace), Natalie Portman (Vox Lux), or Marina de Tavira (Roma).

Predicted Nominees

Amy Adams, Vice

Claire Foy, First Man

Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

Emma Stone, The Favourite

Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Alternate – Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased

Wild Card – Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians

And there you have it! I’ll have reaction up tomorrow after the announcements are made.