Viral intrigue hits multiplexes as Trolls, a timely thriller about Internet irritants, debuts next weekend. OK, the 3D animated musical kiddie pic is actually about those dolls with the funky spiked up hair and it hopes to capture a sizable family audience.
The Dreamworks effort comes with a reported $120 million budget and features the voices (both spoken and in song) of Anna Kendrick, Justin Timberlake, Zooey Deschanel, Russell Brand, Gwen Stefani, and James Corden. The soundtrack has already yielded Timberlake’s summer smash “Can’t Stop The Feeling!”. Reviews thus far have been surprisingly quite positive and it stands at 88% on Rotten Tomatoes.
Early November has been fertile ground for animated fare in recent years past. Some of the original titles and their opening grosses include: 2007’s Bee Movie ($38M), 2010’s Masterminds ($46M), 2012’s Wreck-It-Ralph ($49M), 2014’s Big Hero 6 ($56M), and last year’s The Peanuts Movie ($44M). There is one significant factor standing in the way of Trolls potentially achieving those numbers and that would be Marvel’s Doctor Strange, which debuts directly against it. While the wild haired characters of this may be looking to siphon off an even younger audience (and their parents), Strange should undoubtedly succeed in bringing in families as well.
That said, I expect Trolls to manage a mid-30s roll out and likely play well into the month of November.
For the previous two weekends at the box office, we’ve seen a total of seven features roll out in wide release. As the final frame of October is upon us, we just have one to close the month out – Inferno. This is the third teaming of director Ron Howard with Tom Hanks in adapting Dan Brown’s Robert Langdon novels to the screen. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
While Inferno should have no trouble debuting at #1, just how much it makes is a legit question. I’ve got it pegged at just over $30M, though my blog readers tend to disagree with 64% saying my prediction is Too High. 23% think I’m Just About Right with 13% believing I’m Too Low.
As for holdovers, Boo! A Madea Halloween had a much larger than anticipated debut last weekend (more on that below). Similar Madea titles that opened in the same range dropped about 60% in their second weekend. Could Halloween dip a bit lower since, you know, this is Halloween weekend coming up? Perhaps, but probably not by much.
Jack Reacher: Never Go Back should lose close to half its audience. Same for Ouija. The Accountant in weekend #3 has been experiencing good worth of mouth and its drop may not be quite as pronounced (I have it leaping over Evil).
And with that – the top 5 predictions for the weekend:
1. Inferno
Predicted Gross: $30.6 million
2. Boo! A Madea Halloween
Predicted Gross: $12.7 million (representing a drop of 55%)
3. Jack Reacher: Never Go Back
Predicted Gross: $12.4 million (representing a drop of 46%)
4. The Accountant
Predicted Gross: $8.7 million (representing a drop of 36%)
5. Ouija: Origin of Evil
Predicted Gross: $7.3 million (representing a drop of 48%)
Box Office Results (October 21-23)
In an unexpected box office twist, Tyler Perry outpaced Tom Cruise this weekend as Boo! A Madea Halloween scored a terrific debut with $28.5 million, more than double my meager $12.5M estimate. This marks the third highest debut for a Madea titled pic and ensures this character will be having other holiday fun (Thanksgiving’s probably next) into the future.
It was expected to top the charts, but Madea blocked that as Jack Reacher: Never Go Back debuted in second with $22.8 million (just below my $23.9M estimate). The Tom Cruise sequel suffered from middling reviews and it was following up a predecessor that isn’t exactly beloved. It should struggle to make the $80M earned by the first Reacher and it probably won’t.
Ouija: Origin of Evil didn’t scare up as much business as its predecessor, taking in $14 million for third place (I predicted $15.2M). With a lackluster C Cinemascore grade (same as the first one), it should fade fast, but may not have too calamitous a drop next weekend due to the Halloween holiday.
With all the newbies premiering, The Accountant slipped to fourth with $13.6 million. My prediction? $13.6M! At least I got something right this weekend! Its total stands at $47M.
The Girl on the Train was fifth with $7.1 million and I incorrectly had it outside the top five. The thriller has grossed $58M in three weeks.
The Zack Galifianakis led comedy Keeping Up with Joneses had to settle for seventh place with a poor $5.4 million, well below my $10.1M forecast. It actually performed worse than the star’s comedy from earlier this month, Masterminds.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
Some familiar faces populate the action comedy Keeping Up with the Joneses, out next Friday. In fact, one of those faces is Zach Galifianakis, who just appeared in Masterminds, which performed poorly. Joneses and Masterminds have this in common: both were delayed by their studios, which usually isn’t a good sign.
This one costars Isla Fisher, Jon Hamm, and Gadot in a tale of a bored suburban couple whose lives are spiced up when a couple of secret agents move next door. Greg Mottola, director of Superbad and Adventureland, is behind the camera.
Keeping Up was originally scheduled to come out in April before its push back. Even with the talent involved, I’m not so sure the marketing campaign has been strong enough (or the trailers quite funny enough) to cause it to break out. There’s not much direct competition in the comedy genre, but there are a host of other pics clamoring for the attention of adult audiences.
This should hover right around low double digits. It should do better than the $6.5 million premiere of Galifianakis’s aforementioned early October effort Masterminds. Unfortunately, that’s not saying a whole lot for this late October release.
Keeping Up with the Joneses opening weekend prediction: $10.1 million
For my Jack Reacher: Never Go Back prediction, click here:
The first full weekend of the October box office brings us a trio of newcomers: big-screen adaptation of last year’s bestselling thriller The Girl on the Train, Nate Parker’s slavery drama The Birth of a Nation, and teen comedy Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
While my prediction for Train doesn’t get it near Gone Girl (the blockbuster pic released two years ago on the same weekend that it’s compared to the most), it shouldn’t have much trouble locking down the #1 position.
Birth has received plenty of publicity – first for its rave screenings at festivals and then regarding past legal issues for its director, writer, and star. I have this reaching just over double digits. As for Middle School, it could be stuck in a battle for the five spot with the third weekends of Magnificent Seven and Storks. That said, I’ll predict Storks has a small drop-off and leaps over both of them.
As for other holdovers, I expect current champ Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children to dip a bit further in its sophomore frame than Deepwater Horizon. Both should move down a spot to second and third.
Here’s how the blog’s readers feel about my estimates for the newbies:
The Girl on the Train – 48% Just About Right, 37% Too Low, 15% Too High
The Birth of a Nation – 42% Too Low, 35% Just About Right, 23% Too High
Middle School – 58% Too Low, 25% Too High, 17% Just About Right
And with that, a top 7 predictions for the weekend ahead:
1. The Girl on the Train
Predicted Gross: $28.2 million
2. Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children
Predicted Gross: $14.3 million (representing a drop of 50%)
3. Deepwater Horizon
Predicted Gross: $11.9 million (representing a drop of 41%)
4. The Birth of a Nation
Predicted Gross: $10.5 million
5. Storks
Predicted Gross: $9.3 million (representing a drop of 30%)
6. Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million
7. The Magnificent Seven
Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (how about that?? – representing a drop of 51%)
Box Office Results (September 30-October 2)
Tim Burton nabbed his seventh #1 opener of his filmography as Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children took in $28.8 million, schooling my $19.6M forecast. This is a pretty decent debut, though it’s unlikely to join the $100M club as six of the director’s other features have.
Deepwater Horizon premiered in second and I incorrectly had it making more than Peregrine and those strange kiddos. The big-budget disaster pic starring Mark Wahlberg had a muted start (especially considering its price tag) at $20.2 million, below my $24.7M estimate. Its best hope is for meager declines in coming weekends.
The Magnificent Seven was third, dipping a bit farther than anticipated in weekend 2 with $15.6 million. I predicted $18.2M. The Denzel Washington/Chris Pratt Western has made $61 million thus far.
Storks was fourth in its sophomore frame with $13.4 million (I was right there with a $13.2M estimate). The animated pic has grossed $38 million in ten days.
Sully was fifth with $8.2 million (I said $9.1M) as it entered nine digit territory with $105 million to date.
Lackluster newcomers filled the six and seven positions. The oft-delayed Masterminds earned $6.5 million, on the money with my $6.3M prediction. Disney’s Queen of Katwe failed to break through with audiences with just $2.4 million (less than half of my generous $5M projection).
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
Four new titles roll out in wide release this weekend at the box office and they are: Mark Wahlberg’s true-life disaster pic Deepwater Horizon, Tim Burton’s YA fantasy Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children, oft delayed Zach Galifianakis/Kristin Wiig comedy Masterminds, and Disney’s Ugandan chess prodigy tale Queen of Katwe. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:
As I see it, Deepwater Horizon should top Peregrine for the top spot. Both have the chance to debut higher than my predictions, but the trend over the last couple of weeks has been titles under performing and not over performing. If Magnificent Seven loses close to half its opening weekend audience, it should be third with Storks at the four spot (it should experience the smallest decline of holdovers).
My estimates for Masterminds and Queen of Katwe put them in the sixth and seventh positions with Sully holding on for another week in the top five.
Here’s how the blog readers feel about my projections for the newcomers:
Deepwater Horizon – 45% Too Low, 38% Just About Right, 17% Too High
Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children – 69% Too Low, 16% Just About Right, 15% Too High
Masterminds – 54% Just About Right, 46% Too Low, 0% Too High
Queen of Katwe – 50% Just About Right, 38% Too Low, 12% Too High
And with that, a top 7 predictions for this weekend:
1. Deepwater Horizon
Predicted Gross: $24.7 million
2. Miss Peregrine’s Home for the Peculiar Children
Predicted Gross: $19.6 million
3. The Magnificent Seven
Predicted Gross: $18.2 million (representing a drop of 47%)
4. Storks
Predicted Gross: $13.2 million (representing a drop of 37%)
5. Sully
Predicted Gross: $9.1 million (representing a drop of 33%)
6. Masterminds
Predicted Gross: $6.3 million
7. Queen of Katwe
Predicted Gross: $5 million
Box Office Results (September 23-25)
As expected, TheMagnificentSeven remake with Denzel Washington and Chris Pratt easily topped the charts, though it did come in towards the bottom end of most expectations. The Western took in $34.7 million and I went considerably higher with $47.1M. Still, the opening is in line with Washington’s TheEqualizer from two years ago.
After the animated talking animal mega-hits that were Zootopia, Finding Dory, and The Secret Life of Pets – perhaps family audiences had their fill as Storks posted a debut on the lowest end of expectations. Despite positive reviews, the Warner Bros release made $21.3 million for second (below my $27.9M projection). Its best hope is for smallish declines in future weekends.
Sully dropped to third after two weeks on top with $13.5 million (under my $14.9M forecast) for a total of $92M.
Last weekend’s newcomers all posted lackluster debuts and they all experienced unimpressive second weekends as well. Bridget Jones’s Baby was fourth with $4.6 million (I said $5.1M) for a $16M total. Snowden was fifth with $4 million (I said $4.3M) for a $15M tally. Blair Witch dropped to sixth with $4 million as well (I predicted $3.4M) for a $16M overall gross.
At long last, the heist comedy Masterminds hits theaters next weekend after much delay. Whether or not it’s able to steal some box office dollars is very much in question. Director Jared Hess broke through in a big way 12 years ago with his sleeper hit Napoleon Dynamite. His follow-up, 2006’s Nacho Libre with Jack Black, was a critical letdown which still managed to make $80 million domestic.
Since then, Mr. Hess’s efforts have been little-seen and poorly reviewed efforts. 2009’s Gentlemen Broncos? 2015’s Don Verdean? Anyone? Masterminds had the whiff of a return to form, but it’s been mired in the financial distresses of its studio, Relativity. The pic was originally scheduled for release in August of last year and then October (hence its trailer having been around for quite some time).
The talent involved here is serious – Zach Galifianakis, Kristin Wiig, Owen Wilson, Jason Sudeikis, Kate McKinnon, and Leslie Jones. That’s three new Ghostbusters by the way – even though the ladies shot that reboot after this. Recognizable stars aside, I have a feeling that all of the delays and a fairly quiet marketing campaign will hurt Masterminds immensely.
I’m tempted to go really low — like $4 million, folks. I believe this may manage to reach a bit beyond that. Double digits seems like a reach, however.
Masterminds opening weekend prediction: $6.3 million
In less than one month, the Summer 2015 Movie Season will be upon us! That means studios will be bringing out their big wannabe blockbusters with sequels, reboots, animated tales, comic book heroes, and a surprisingly robust group of potentially intriguing comedies.
Therefore, I am bringing you my personal 15 most anticipated summer movies for the year. Let me talk briefly about some pictures that didn’t quite make the cut. I left off animated fare such as Pixar’s Inside Out and Despicable Me spin-off Minions. Same goes for Pitch Perfect 2, Magic Mike XXL and the film version of HBO’s Entourage. And then there’s a film I figured would make the cut: Terminator: Genisys that marks Arnold Schwarzenegger’s return to his iconic role after 12 years. Why? Quite frankly, I wasn’t crazy about the trailer. Don’t get me wrong – I’m still highly curious to watch it.
I will be breaking up my list in three installments and we begin this evening with numbers 15-11. Subsequent posts covering the top ten will arrive Friday and Saturday.
Let’s get to it, shall we?
15. Spy
Release Date: June 5
Originally, I probably wouldn’t have figured Melissa McCarthy’s new comedy would make the cut. That’s until reviews from screenings at South by Southwest came out and they indicate this is the star’s best feature so far. It doesn’t hurt that Paul Feig, director of McCarthy’s Bridesmaids and The Heat is behind the camera. Jude Law, Rose Byrne, and Jason Statham co-star.
14. Masterminds
Release Date: August 14
From the director of Napoleon Dynamite comes this heist comedy with a killer cast: Zach Galifianakis, Kristin Wiig, Owen Wilson, and Jason Sudeikis. The trailer inspires hope.
13. Vacation
Release Date: July 31
Yes, they’re rebooting the Vacation franchise with Ed Helms and Leslie Mann as grown-up Rusty and Audrey and Chevy Chase and Beverly D’Angelo back as Clark and Ellen. Christina Applegate, Chris Hemsworth, and Charlie Day round out the cast. Here’s to hoping this is more like the original and Christmas Vacation than Vegas Vacation. No trailer has been released at press time.
12. Southpaw
Release Date: July 24
Jake Gyllenhall has been on a roll lately choosing his projects, including last year’s terrific Nightcrawler. This sports drama sees him playing a boxer with serious family issues. It also sees him heavily bulked up in a pic that could get awards attention, like 2010’s The Fighter. Antoine Fuqua directs (he made Training Day and The Equalizer) and Rachel McAdams and Forest Whitaker co-star.
11. Fantastic Four
Released Date: August 7
The first two installments of the famed Marvel comic books (the ones with Jessica Alba and Michael Chiklis) were decent size hits, however critics didn’t approve. This reboot comes from Chronicle director Josh Trank with a cast that includes Miles Teller, Kate Mara, and Michael B. Jordan and it will attempt to begin the franchise anew.
And that’s all for now! Numbers 10-6 coming at you tomorrow…
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