Nearly four years ago, Tom Cruise had a decent performer in the form of Jack Reacher, based on a series of thriller novels by Lee Child. The pic opened to $15 million over the Christmas holiday in 2012 and eventually took in a solid $80 million.
Still, that gross was not enough to figure a sequel was automatically warranted. Yet here we are with Jack Reacher: Never Go Back, which re-teams Cruise with his Last Samurai director Edward Zwick and costars Cobie Smulders. The director of the its predecessor, Christopher McQuarrie, moved onto make the fifth Mission: Impossible and will reportedly do the sixth.
Whether this earns enough to see a third installment is questionable. Of Cruise’s last five pictures that he’s headlined, Reacher is actually the lowest grosser. The sequel will almost surely make more in its opening weekend, but it’s not exactly a fair comparison. Movies released over the Xmas weekend almost always open lower than they would over a typical weekend and develop longer legs in subsequent winter frames. So while the debut should be larger, I’m not sure it reaches $80M domestic in the long run.
I don’t see this getting much higher than mid 20s or much lower than $20M. My prediction essentially splits the difference.
Jack Reacher: Never Go Back opening weekend prediction: $23.9 million
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