Box Office Predictions: October 7-9

The first full weekend of the October box office brings us a trio of newcomers: big-screen adaptation of last year’s bestselling thriller The Girl on the Train, Nate Parker’s slavery drama The Birth of a Nation, and teen comedy Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

While my prediction for Train doesn’t get it near Gone Girl (the blockbuster pic released two years ago on the same weekend that it’s compared to the most), it shouldn’t have much trouble locking down the #1 position.

Birth has received plenty of publicity – first for its rave screenings at festivals and then regarding past legal issues for its director, writer, and star. I have this reaching just over double digits. As for Middle School, it could be stuck in a battle for the five spot with the third weekends of Magnificent Seven and Storks. That said, I’ll predict Storks has a small drop-off and leaps over both of them.

As for other holdovers, I expect current champ Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children to dip a bit further in its sophomore frame than Deepwater Horizon. Both should move down a spot to second and third.

Here’s how the blog’s readers feel about my estimates for the newbies:

The Girl on the Train – 48% Just About Right, 37% Too Low, 15% Too High

The Birth of a Nation – 42% Too Low, 35% Just About Right, 23% Too High

Middle School – 58% Too Low, 25% Too High, 17% Just About Right

And with that, a top 7 predictions for the weekend ahead:

1. The Girl on the Train

Predicted Gross: $28.2 million

2. Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children

Predicted Gross: $14.3 million (representing a drop of 50%)

3. Deepwater Horizon

Predicted Gross: $11.9 million (representing a drop of 41%)

4. The Birth of a Nation

Predicted Gross: $10.5 million

5. Storks

Predicted Gross: $9.3 million (representing a drop of 30%)

6. Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million

7. The Magnificent Seven

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (how about that?? – representing a drop of 51%)

Box Office Results (September 30-October 2)

Tim Burton nabbed his seventh #1 opener of his filmography as Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children took in $28.8 million, schooling my $19.6M forecast. This is a pretty decent debut, though it’s unlikely to join the $100M club as six of the director’s other features have.

Deepwater Horizon premiered in second and I incorrectly had it making more than Peregrine and those strange kiddos. The big-budget disaster pic starring Mark Wahlberg had a muted start (especially considering its price tag) at $20.2 million, below my $24.7M estimate. Its best hope is for meager declines in coming weekends.

The Magnificent Seven was third, dipping a bit farther than anticipated in weekend 2 with $15.6 million. I predicted $18.2M. The Denzel Washington/Chris Pratt Western has made $61 million thus far.

Storks was fourth in its sophomore frame with $13.4 million (I was right there with a $13.2M estimate). The animated pic has grossed $38 million in ten days.

Sully was fifth with $8.2 million (I said $9.1M) as it entered nine digit territory with $105 million to date.

Lackluster newcomers filled the six and seven positions. The oft-delayed Masterminds earned $6.5 million, on the money with my $6.3M prediction. Disney’s Queen of Katwe failed to break through with audiences with just $2.4 million (less than half of my generous $5M projection).

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…


1 thought on “Box Office Predictions: October 7-9

  1. Yo Todd!

    We’re finally getting some good looking film releases….

    I’m just finishing up The Girl on the Train in time to see, so I’m sure the movie is going to disappoint 🙂 I’ve been anxiously awaiting Birth of a Nation, and I’ve a big James Patterson fan so I’m (mildly) looking forward to Middle School. This is my kind of weekend! 🙂

    Anyway, here are my numbers:
    The Girl on the Train – $29.3M
    Birth of a Nation – $8.8M
    Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life – $6.6M

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