Box Office Predictions: July 10-12

The box office stranglehold held by Pixar’s Inside Out and Jurassic World looks to finally come to an end this weekend as Despicable Me franchise spin-off Minions looks to easily dominate the box office. Two new entries also populate the crowded marketplace: Ryan Reynolds action thriller Self/less and found footage horror flick The Gallows. You can read my detailed prediction posts on all the newcomers here:

As stated, Minions could certainly flirt with an opening over $100 million, but I have it opening just shy of that mark. As for Self/less and The Gallows, I believe both will struggle to even make double digits and I’m predicting they won’t get there.

Current champs Inside Out and Jurassic should both slide a spot to the 2 and 3 position while dropping in the low 40s. In its second weekend, I’m predicting Terminator Genisys will fall a bit further than that after its disappointing opening while Magic Mike XXL looks to suffer a hefty decline after its surprisingly weak debut over the weekend.

And with that, we’ll make it a top seven prediction for this weekend:

1. Minions

Predicted Gross: $96.4 million

2. Inside Out

Predicted Gross: $17.3 million (representing a drop of 41%)

3. Jurassic World

Predicted Gross: $16.3 million (representing a drop of 43%)

4. Terminator Genisys

Predicted Gross: $14.5 million (representing a drop of 46%)

5. Self/less

Predicted Gross: $9.7 million

6. The Gallows

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million

7. Magic Mike XXL

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million (representing a drop of 54%)

Box Office Results (July 3-5)

While two holdovers continued their impressive reign at multiplexes, two newcomer sequels failed to meet expectations.

Pixar’s Inside Out narrowly reached the #1 spot with $29.7 million, finally breaking Jurassic World‘s three week hold at the top. This was just under my $30.5M estimate. Its three week total stands at a rock solid $245 million.

Jurassic slipped to second with $29.2 million, on pace with my $28.7M projection. The movie of summer 2015 has amassed a gargantuan $556 million at press time and looks to reach $650M when all is said and done.

In third, Terminator Genisys got off to a disappointing start with $27 million over the three day weekend and $42.4 million for its five day holiday gross. This is below my respective estimates of $31.2M and $48.4M. The franchise appears to have run out of gas and Genisys will need truly impressive international numbers to justify a sequel. As for Arnold’s post gubernatorial film career, it continues to be littered with financial letdowns.

It had a much smaller budget than Terminator, but final results were lackluster for the week’s other new sequel Magic Mike XXL. The Channing Tatum pic made just $12.8 million over the three day weekend and $27.8 million since its Wednesday roll out, far under my respective projections of $24.8M and $44M. Considering the original three years ago made $39.1 million in its first three days, this is an incredibly low opening.

And in even further bad grossing sequel news, Ted 2 continued its way lower than anticipated performance with a massive 67% drop in weekend #2 with only $11.1 million, under my $16.4M prediction. Its two week total stands at $58 million and it is very unlikely to even reach $100M. The original three summers ago made $218M.

And that’ll do it for now, ladies and gents. Until next time…


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