Todd’s Early 2018 Oscar Predictions: Best Director

We’ve arrived at Best Director in my early bird predictions for the 2018 Oscars! In the last couple of days, I’ve also posted my take on the four acting categories and the new race that everyone has an opinion on – Best Popular Film. If you missed those, you can find them right here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/24/todds-early-2018-oscar-predictions-best-popular-film/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/24/todds-early-2018-oscar-predictions-best-actor/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/24/todds-early-2018-oscar-predictions-best-actress/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/23/todds-early-2018-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actor/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/23/todds-early-2018-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actress/

As mentioned previously, these categories will all come into much sharper focus this coming week when Venice kicks off Film Festival season with Toronto to quickly follow.

Let’s get to it with Director and Best Picture will follow later today.

Todd’s Early Oscar Predictions: Best Director

Damien Chazelle, First Man

Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

Alfonso Cuaron, Roma

Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk

Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman

Other Possibilities:

Joel and Ethan Coen, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs 

Joel Edgerton, Boy, Erased

Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite

Mike Leigh, Peterloo

David Lowry, Old Man & The Gun

Adam McKay, Backseat

Steve McQueen, Widows

Josie Rourke, Mary Queen of Scots

Felix Van Groeningen, Beautiful Boy

Suburbicon Box Office Prediction

There’s an impressive amount of talent in front of and behind the camera in Suburbicon, opening next weekend. Yet it may not be enough to prevent it from becoming a flop.

George Clooney directs the 1950s set crime comedy with a script from the Coen Brothers and a cast led by Matt Damon, Julianne Moore, and Oscar Isaac. Before its September premiere at the Toronto Film Festival, the pic was looked at as a potential awards contender. Then the reviews happened. Critical reaction hasn’t been too kind and it sits at just 41% on Rotten Tomatoes.

The final weekend of October (unless you’re talking horror flicks) isn’t traditionally fertile ground for newcomers. With muted buzz at best, I believe Suburbicon will have trouble even reaching double digits.

Suburbicon opening weekend prediction: $7.3 million

For my Jigsaw prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/10/18/jigsaw-box-office-prediction/

For my Thank You for Your Service prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/10/18/thank-you-for-your-service-box-office-prediction/

 

Oscar Watch: Suburbicon

George Clooney’s directorial career has one Oscar bright spot in the form of 2005’s Good Night, and Good Luck which received six nominations, including Picture and Director. His other work behind the camera (2002’s Confessions of a Dangerous Mind, 2008’s Leatherheads, 2011’s The Ides of March, 2014’s The Monuments Men) haven’t fared as well on the awards circuit. With its Venice Film Festival, Clooney’s latest Suburbicon is looking like it will belong in the latter category.

The 1950s set crime comedy was penned by acclaimed directors Joel and Ethan Coen and early critical reaction indicates it has the feel of one of their efforts. However, reviews thus far are mixed with a current 60% Rotten Tomatoes score. Matt Damon, Julianne Moore, and Oscar Isaac are among the cast. Mr. Damon could have more of a good night and good luck come Oscar time with Downsizing, but I don’t look for Suburbicon to receive much attention come nominations time (perhaps some Golden Globe in the Comedy categories could surface).

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Hail, Caesar! Movie Review

Joel and Ethan Coen seem to be struggling with ambivalence to the film industry in their latest, Hail, Caesar! It takes place in the early 1950s when the studios had their own struggles with the impending explosion of television threatening their existence. Capitol Pictures production head Eddie Mannix (Josh Brolin) spends his days and nights putting out fires with damaged actors, directors, and other assorted players. He has an offer on the table for a nice everyday job with Lockheed and his decision whether to stay or go is treated (quite literally) as one of Biblical proportions.

The film’s title is one shared with a Roman epic meant to be Capitol’s blockbuster of the year. It stars Baird Whitlock and he’s played by George Clooney in a welcome continuation of the actor playing extraordinarily dumb guys in the Coen universe. These directors either realized years ago that Clooney excels in these roles or have secret contempt for him. It’s probably the former. Baird is kidnapped by a group of gentlemen who are either underpaid and frustrated screenwriters, Communist sympathizers, or both. His return to the set means a handsome ransom paid by Capitol.

That is just one of many issues that Mannix deals with during his workday. They include the synchronized swimming Esther Williams type starlet (Scarlett Johansson) whose squeaky clean image is polar opposite from the real story. And the Western crooning leading man (Alden Ehrenreich) clumsily trying his hand at serious drama.

Much of this simply appears to be an excuse for the brothers from Minnesota to play around with genres popular in the era. Channing Tatum pops up as a tap dancing sailor making an energetic and silly musical. The works of the aforementioned movie stars lets the Coens give us scenes from Westerns, Bible epics, and aquamusicals. Fans of the period will almost certainly appreciate it all more than those unfamiliar.

Certain performances stand out. Some of the more recognizable faces (Johansson, Jonah Hill as a studio problem fixer) are given little material. Lesser known Ehrenreich is quite a find and he shares a very funny sequence with an exasperated director  played by Ralph Fiennes. Tilda Swinton is on point in a dual role as haughty twin gossip columnists.

The overall theme is of Mannix’s wondering if his crazy job is inconsequential. You get the feeling from time to time if it’s the Coens thinking that themselves. We saw it in 2008’s superior Burn After Reading, a picture that concluded with a conversation about its own unnecessary existence. That also seemed to serve as a statement about the spy thrillers it was sending up. Here the message is a little murkier and quite a bit less humorous. Joel and Ethan Coen have certainly earned the right to do whatever they want and Hail, Caesar! still has plenty of moments that remind us why they’re such cinematic treasures. The ambivalence that I mentioned earlier that permeates their exercise here? We feel it a bit as well, however.

**1/2 (out of four)

Bridge of Spies Box Office Prediction

Next weekend, a surefire Oscar hopeful hits the screens as Steven Spielberg’s Bridge of Spies opens. The Cold War era thriller stars Tom Hanks in his fourth collaboration with the famed director. Costars include Mark Rylance, Alan Alda, and Amy Ryan.

The Disney property premiered at the New York Film Festival last weekend and immediately became fodder for Academy Awards talk. Sitting at 86% on Rotten Tomatoes currently, Spies appears to be a strong contender for a Best Picture nod and for Rylance in the Supporting Actor category (critics have really singled him out). Spielberg and Hanks could see their names called as well in Director and Actor.

These adult themed dramas typically don’t have massive openings and tend to play well from weekend to weekend. For comparisons sake, 2012’s Best Picture winner Argo debuted in October to $19.4 million while October 2013’s Captain Phillips featuring Hanks opened with $25.7 million. That seems like a pretty sensible range for where Bridge of Spies will start out. I’ll predict it doesn’t quite reach Phillips gross while slightly outshining Argo.

Bridge of Spies opening weekend prediction: $21.2 million

For my Goosebumps prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/08/goosebumps-box-office-prediction/

For my Crimson Peak prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/08/crimson-peak-box-office-prediction/

For my Woodlawn prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/12/woodlawn-box-office-prediction/