Horror prequel A Quiet Place: Day One is out this weekend with a fresh creative team behind and in front of the camera. Michael Sarnoski, best known for Pig with Nicolas Cage, directs with Lupita Nyong’o, Joseph Quinn, and Alex Wolff entering the franchise. Djimon Hounsou reprises his turn from A Quiet Place Part II.
The review embargo is up and it is slightly behind its two predecessors. 2018’s original posted 96% on RT with 2021’s follow-up at 91%. Day One currently stands at 86%. There is particular praise for Nyong’o who probably came close to a Best Actress nom in this genre with 2019’s Us.
At the 91st Academy Awards, A Quiet Place was up for Sound Editing (this was right before Sound Editing and Sound Mixing were combined into Best Sound). It ultimately lost to Bohemian Rhapsody and was its sole nod. Side note: Emily Blunt took home a surprise Supporting Actress SAG prize for the pic while missing the Oscar cut.
Part II did not get a Sound mention three years later as Dune was the victor. Day‘s only shot on Oscar night is Sound and it’s a coin flip whether it gets in. You’re safe to assume it won’t take the statue even if it makes the quintet thanks to Dune: Part Two. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Horror prequel A Quiet Place: Day One will attempt to make enough noise to knock Inside Out 2 from its third week atop the charts, but that could be a tall order. We also have Kevin Costner’s epic Western Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 and the semi-wide expansion of the Yorgos Lanthimos anthology Kinds of Kindness out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio right here:
My mid 40s projection for Quiet would be right in line with expectations and a tad under predecessor A Quiet Place Part II from 2021. That should put it firmly in second.
That’s because animated box office behemoth Inside Out 2 might ease around 40% for a third weekend in first after its record breaking performance during its second frame (more on that below).
Horizon is a legit question mark. Some estimates have it as low as $10 million and that would likely put it in fourth behind the fourth outing of Bad Boys: Ride or Die. Despite lackluster reviews and a three-hour runtime, I think it might manage low teens for third if enough Yellowstone viewers turn up.
The Bikeriders, with significant competition for adult eyeballs, should fall around 50% to fifth after a so-so start. As for Kinds of Kindness (which just scored the biggest PTA of 2024 on five screens), it is expanding to approximately 500 venues Friday and a gross just above $3 million might be enough for sixth.
Here’s how I have it shaking out:
1. Inside Out 2
Predicted Gross: $61.5 million
2. A Quiet Place: Day One
Predicted Gross: $46.3 million
3. Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1
Predicted Gross: $14.8 million
4. Bad Boys: Ride or Die
Predicted Gross: $11.2 million
5. The Bikeriders
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million
6. Kinds of Kindness
Predicted Gross: $3.2 million
Box Office Results (June 21-23)
Disney/Pixar broke its own record (previously held by Incredibles 2) with the second highest animated weekend in history at $101.2 million. That bests my $93.6 million projection as the mighty sequel is up to $356 million in just ten days. A billion plus worldwide haul seems to be in the making. This is also vying for title of summer 2024’s heftiest domestic grosser with Deadpool & Wolverine seemingly the only challenger.
Bad Boys: Ride or Die held in second at $18.8 million, a bit shy of my $21.3 million take. The three-week gross is $147 million.
The Bikeriders couldn’t quite reach double digits in third with $9.6 million compared to my $10.5 million forecast. With an unimpressive B Cinemascore, this should stall out in subsequent weekends.
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes was fourth with $3.8 million (I said $4.1 million) for a seven-week tally of $164 million.
The Garfield Movie closely followed in fifth with $3.7 million and I incorrectly had it outside the high five. It has made $85 million after five weeks.
IF was sixth with $2.7 million as the family friendly original hit $106 million after six weeks.
I was a little too kind to Russell Crowe’s The Exorcism. His second feature with this subject matter in a year’s time (after The Pope’s Exorcist) was underwater in seventh with $2.4 million. I predicted $3.2 million.
Finally, I didn’t do an estimate for the critically acclaimed comedy Thelma with June Squibb. It was eighth with $2.3 million which is pretty decent considering it’s on less than 1300 screens.
Michael Sarnoski, director of Pig, takes over a highly profitable horror franchise from John Krasinski with A Quiet Place: Day One. Paramount is hoping the prequel continues to bring home the bacon. With Krasinski (who just released the family friendly IF) and spouse Emily Blunt (recently in The Fall Guy) out of the mix, Lupita Nyong’o, Joseph Quinn, Alex Wolff, and Djimon Hounsou (a returnee from the second entry) headline.
In the spring of 2018, A Quiet Place made loud noises at multiplexes with a $50 million beginning and $188 million overall domestic haul. The 2021 sequel (delayed a year due to the pandemic) earned $48 million out of the gate with $160 million total stateside.
Scary movies have seen underwhelming premieres for the most part in 2024. Day One should be an exception. That said, I don’t see a compelling reason why this would significantly top its predecessors. A $50 million plus debut is possible. I suspect it will fall in line with its predecessor from three years ago in the mid to high 40s range.
A Quiet Place: Day One opening weekend prediction: $46.3 million
For my Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 prediction, click here:
As for the trailer for prequel A Quiet Place: Day One debuted this week, multiplexes themselves were even quieter over the Super Bowl weekend. With the Valentine and President’s Day holiday hitting, studios are hoping business gets louder. We have Spider-Man Universe flick Madame Web starring Dakota Johnson and musical biopic Bob Marley: One Love looking to place 1-2 when they open on February 14th. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
The top 3 should all be newbies with faith-based The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 4-6 beginning on Thursday. On the day before, Madame Web hopes to break a recent run of so-so starts for comic book adaptations. That could be a tall order. I have it opening in the low 20s over the 4-day with low30s when counting the six-day output.
Marley might be close behind with low 20s from Friday to Monday and high 20s when counting Wednesday and Thursday. If it manages to over perform (which could be tricky considering the lackluster reviews), it might contend for the top spot if Web doesn’t match its fairly meager expectations.
Episodes 1-3 of The Chosen‘s fourth season made nearly $6 million from Friday to Sunday in the first weekend of February. Grosses could be about the same even with the extra day thrown in.
Holdovers Argylle and The Beekeeper are likely to populate the remainder of the high five with last weekend’s newcomer Lisa Frankenstein dropping out altogether (more on that below).
Here’s how I think it’ll look and keep in mind that these projections are for Friday thru Monday:
1. Madame Web
Predicted Gross: $21.5 million (Friday to Monday estimate); $30.7 million (Wednesday to Monday estimate)
2. Bob Marley: One Love
Predicted Gross: $19.2 million (Friday to Monday estimate); $28.9 million (Wednesday to Monday estimate)
3. The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 1-3
Predicted Gross: $6.1 million
4. Argylle
Predicted Gross: $4.5 million
5. The Beekeeper
Predicted Gross: $2.6 million
Box Office Results (February 9-11)
It was the weakest frame since early December 2022 as spy action comedy Argylle plummeted 64% and still managed to stay #1. It made $6.2 million and was right on target with my $6.1 million prediction. The subpar two-week take is $28 million.
Horror comedy Lisa Frankenstein was the only newcomer and it was DOA in second with a putrid $3.6 million. That’s well below my $6.8 million forecast and it should experience a hefty decline in subsequent frames.
The Beekeeper was third at $3.3 million (I said $3.5 million) as Jason Statham’s steady grosser hit $54 million after five weeks.
Holiday holdover Wonka was fourth with $3 million, a shade under my $3.4 million projection. The total is $205 million in its ninth go-round.
Finally, animated Migration rounded out the top five in weekend #8 with $2.9 million compared to my $3.2 million guesstimate. It’s up to $110 million.
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